the benefit of improved goes products in the nws forecast offices greg mandt national weather...
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The Benefit of Improved GOES Products in the NWS
Forecast Offices
Greg Mandt
National Weather Service
Director of the Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services
May 23, 2001
GOES…the Evolution Continues
GOES Assessment
1st Tornado 5:55 pm
2 Tornadoes 6:34-6:55 pm
3 Tornadoes 9:02-10:01 pm
9 Tornadoes 7:08-8:47 pm
GOES Sounder Assessment MN/IA Tornadoes
WFOs credit the GOES Sounder data with helping them focus in on this tornado outbreak. The verification statistics (below) for the event, compared to the national averages and the NWS long-range goals bear this out:
TornadoesTornadoes
MSX/DMX National 2005 MSX/DMX National 2005 Ave (200) Goal** Ave (200) Goal**
Number Number 15 -- 15 -- -- --
PODPOD 0.73 0.63 0.80 0.73 0.63 0.80
FARFAR 0.31 0.31 0.75 0.40 0.75 0.40
LT (min)LT (min) 13.8 13.8 9.0 15.0 9.0 15.0
** all tornadoes** all tornadoes
NoteNote: The False Alarm Rate : The False Alarm Rate
exceeds the 2005 goal while exceeds the 2005 goal while
the Probability Of Detection the Probability Of Detection
and Lead-Time nearly hit the and Lead-Time nearly hit the
long-range goal. long-range goal.
Where we are headed in the future
AWIPS
Thunderstorm Auto-Nowcast System
• Produces 0-2 hr time and place specific forecast
• Expert system utilizes fuzzy logic
• Ingest multiple data sets
• Extrapolates radar echos• Forecast storm initiation,
growth and dissipation• Algorithms derive forecast
parameters based on the characteristics of the boundary-layer, storms, and clouds.
• 4-D Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (VDRAS)
Boundary-relative steeringflow
Steering flow likelihood field after weighting
Example of Combining Fields to Example of Combining Fields to Forecast Thunderstorm LocationForecast Thunderstorm Location
Boundary collision
Collision likelihood field weighted and overlaid on previous field
Example of Combining Fields to Example of Combining Fields to Forecast Thunderstorm LocationForecast Thunderstorm Location
Radar cumulus
Radar cumulus likelihood field weighted and overlaid on previous fields
Example of Combining Fields to Example of Combining Fields to Forecast Thunderstorm LocationForecast Thunderstorm Location
Likelihood fields are summed,
threshold and contoured
produce final forecast
Forecast verification
Example of Combining Fields to Example of Combining Fields to Forecast Thunderstorm LocationForecast Thunderstorm Location
2 June 2000 - Challenge to NWS Forecasters
“…Although our forecasters had discussed the potential for severe thunderstorms to break out, we were anticipating a late start based on extrapolation of the line of storms over Pennsylvania. Our office was behind the curve… The 2 June event underscores the critical nature of detecting boundaries to help in the convective initiation problem.” -Steve Zubrick, NWS SOO
Cold FrontCold Front
Pre-frontal squall line developsPre-frontal squall line develops
2 June 2000
Convergence boundary is yellow line
VDRASvectors areoverlaid
15 minintervals
June 2, 200020:33 – 23:02 UTC
Visible Infrared
2 June 2000
30 min Forecasts
AN-radar 30 min Forecast AN-radar/satellite 30 min Forecast
2 June 2000
30 min Verification
AN-radar 30 min Verification AN-radar/satellite 30 min Verification
Summary of NWS Requirements for GOES-R Plus
• Faster Scanning– 5 minute CONUS updates– 15 minute Full Disk update
• Improved Resolution of Imagery– 0.5 km Visible– 2 km IR
• No Black Outs Due to Eclipse/Keep-out-Zones
• Improved Sounder Spatial Coverage
Further Future Sensors Possibilities