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Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 1 Condential Best Practices in Program Research: Employer Demand March 2, 2017

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Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 1 Confidential

Best Practices in Program Research: Employer Demand

March 2, 2017

Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 2

Evaluating Markets for Programs Best-practices: inclusive process with sound data on four topics.

Student Demand

February 2

Employment March 2

Degree Fit

March 30

Competitive

Intensity March 30

Decision-Making Process April 22

Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 3

Evaluating Markets for Programs Best-practices: inclusive process with sound data on four topics.

Student Demand

February 2

Employment March 2

Degree Fit

March 30

Competitive

Intensity March 30

Decision-Making Process April 22

Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 4

The Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS is a primary source and its employment data is easy to access.

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Employment Opportunity Data: BLS BLS surveys employers to estimate employment by Standard Occupation Code (SOC).

SOCs are assigned to all people who do similar work

49-9052.00 Telephone Line Installers and Repairers 29-1065.00

Pediatrician

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NCES crosswalks intentionally draw a tight link between programs and SOCs.

NCES Crosswalks

History, General CIP 54.0101

Managers, All Other SOC 11-9199

Historians SOC 19-3093

Source: National Center for Education Statistics: SOC 2010 mapped to CIP.

History Teachers, Postsecondary SOC 25-1125

Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education

SOC 25-2031

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1 4

462

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

CIPs (Programs) NCES Matched SOCs Actual Employment: SOCs

Count of Programs and Occupations CIP 54.0101 History, General

Reality: Loose Alignment, especially for Liberal Arts

NCES Crosswalks

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Gray analysis of over 2.0 million records.

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Even for one program, occupations are very diverse—from CEO to salesperson.

ACS Actual Fields of Employment

11% 7%

4% 4%

3% 2%

2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

0% 5% 10% 15%

Lawyers, Judges, other Judicial Teachers: Elem. & Mid. School

Postsecondary Teachers Miscellaneous Managers

Secondary School Teachers Education Administrators

Chief Executives and Legislators Clergy

Retail Salespersons First-line Supervisors: Retail

Administrative Assistants Management Analysts

Sales Reps, Wholesale and Manufacturing Accountants and Auditors

Librarians Physicians and Surgeons

First-line Supervisors: Non-Retail Sales Customer Service Representatives

Financial Managers General and Operations Managers

What do History Majors Really Do?

Percentage of History Majors by Occupation

High Status Education

Other

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85% of BLS projected growth rates are off by 50% or more.

BLS Forecast Accuracy

2% 3%

10%

21% 23% 23%

19%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

<10% 10-25% 25-50% 50-75% 75-100% 100-150% 150+

Percentage of SOCs

Percentage Error

BLS Forecast Error Actual Employment vs. Projected Employment Growth

2012-2015

Source: BLS Occupational Employment Statistics and BLS Employment Projections 2012-2022. Note: BLS forecasts are for 2022. BLS 2012 base and annual growth rate vs. actual growth from 2012 to 2015.

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BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook

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BLS Occupational Employment Statistics

Despite its limitations, BLS is a frequently-used source on employment.

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BLS 10th-Percentile Wages

Wage profiles by occupation are available from BLS.

$57,480

$81,350

$119,280

$168,390

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

10th Percentile 25th Percentile Median 75th Percentile

BLS Wages

Wages by Percentile Marketing and Sales Manager 11-2020.00

Source: BLS Occupational Employment Statistics: http://www.bls.gov/oes

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Educational Attainment of Workers By SOC

Educational attainment indicates the degree level needed in the occupation.

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Placement Rates

Placement rates by program highlight the employability of program graduates.

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Placement Rates

Regulations require many institutions to disclose placement rates on their websites.

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Job Postings: Employer-Site or Total?

Job-posting data come from three sources, which vary in quality.

Job Sites

Recruiters

Employers ✔

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Job Postings Data

Job postings are available from Burning Glass, CEB TalentNeuron, and others.

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Job postings in 2014 were a reliable predictor of job postings in 2016.

Job Postings: Predictive Power

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000

2016 Job Postings

2014 Job Postings

Job Postings By 8-Digit SOC

Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions. Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies.

Correlation: 0.969

Registered Nurses

Retail Salespersons

Managers, All Other Security Guards

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Data for a single program is a challenge to interpret.

Data Interpretation

New Job Postings: 153,611

?

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

100%

Percentiles and color codes aide interpretation.

Data Interpretation

New Job Postings Percentiles for all Programs

N =1,000

Program 1: 153,611

Program 800: 10,000

Program Percentile

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Interpreting employment information requires a context.

Employment Data: Interpretation

Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 22

Agenda

1.  Employment Opportunity Data: Sources, Uses, and Limitations

2.  U.S. Employment Trends: Job Postings

Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 23

10%

3%

0%

-2%

-10% 0% 10% 20%

High school or vocational training

Associate's degree

Graduate or professional degree

Bachelor's degree

2016 YoY Change in Job Postings* (January through December)

Job Postings: Required Degree Level

National Job Postings illustrate degree requirements and trends.

Source: Data from Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions. Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies.

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Job Postings: Geographic Density

Employment is a very local phenomenon, led by the West Coast.

Source: Data from Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions. Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies.

Map circle size represents ratio of job postings to employed population.

Metro  Area   Job  Pos-ngs  per  10,000  people  employed  

Portland-­‐Vancouver-­‐Hillsboro   307  

San  Francisco-­‐Oakland-­‐Hayward   301  

Sea>le-­‐Tacoma-­‐Bellevue,   275  

Denver-­‐Aurora-­‐Lakewood,   259  

Washington-­‐Arlington-­‐Alexandria   256  

Atlanta-­‐Sandy  Springs-­‐Roswell   230  

Dallas-­‐Fort  Worth-­‐Arlington   219  

Phoenix-­‐Mesa-­‐Sco>sdale   209  

Boston-­‐Cambridge-­‐Nashua   195  

Philadelphia-­‐Camden-­‐Wilmington   189  

New  York-­‐Newark-­‐Jersey  City   159  

Los  Angeles-­‐Long  Beach-­‐Anaheim   148  

Houston-­‐The  Woodlands-­‐Sugar  Land   146  

Chicago-­‐Naperville-­‐Elgin,   139  

Miami-­‐Fort  Lauderdale-­‐West  Palm  Beach   135  

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Job Postings: The Big 5 Cities

Employer demand trends vary substantially by location.

6%

-9%

19% 23%

15%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

New York, NY Houston, TX San Francisco, CA Atlanta, GA Los Angeles, CA

2016 YoY Job Posting Growth Five Cities with the Most Job Postings

Source: Data from Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions. Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies.

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Job Postings: Salaries in the Big 5 Cities

Wages also vary by location.

649 758 371 473 781

908 527 476 283

704

1,651

756 842

313

878

2,121

567 1,874

1,251

1,010

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

New York, NY Houston, TX San Francisco, CA Atlanta, GA Los Angeles, CA

Five Cities with the Most Job Postings 2016 Salary Distribution

More than $75,000

$50,000 to $74,999

$35,000 to $49,999

Less than $35,000

Avg. Salary $70,716 $57,014 $81,255 $77,996 $62,684

Source: Data from Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. Technologies. Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions. Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies. Excludes job postings without salary information.

Job Postings

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Job Postings: Ten Largest Occupations

Healthcare and IT took the top five slots for job posting volume.

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000

Registered Nurses

Managers, All Other

Computer Occupations, All Other

Software Developers, Applications

Medical and Health Services Managers

Sales Managers

General and Operations Managers

Human Resources Specialists

Management Analysts

Financial Managers

Job Postings in 2016 Ten Largest Occupations

Source: Data from Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions that require a college degree (Associate’s or higher). Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies.

Managers Healthcare

IT

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The fastest-growing occupations are dominated by healthcare and education.

Job Postings: Ten Fastest Growing Occupations

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%

Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education Pharmacists

Medical Equipment Repairers Education Administrators, Preschool and

Special Education Teachers, All Other Clinical, Counseling, and School Psychologists

Radiologic Technologists Chemists

Respiratory Therapists Speech-Language Pathologists

Job Postings in 2016 Ten Fastest-Growing Occupations in the U.S.

Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions that require a college degree (Associate’s or higher). Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies.

Education Healthcare

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Job Postings: Ten Most Requested Skill Clusters

The top skill cluster is Microsoft Office.

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000

IT: Microsoft Office and Productivity Tools Business: People Management

Customer and Client Support: Basic Customer Finance: Budget Management

Business: Project Management Sales: General Sales

Administration: Scheduling Business: Business Process and Analysis

Business: Business Management Business: Business Strategy

Job Postings in 2016 Ten Most-Requested Skill-Clusters

Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions that require a college degree (Associate’s or higher). Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies.

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Job Postings: Most Requested Specialized Skills

Microsoft Excel is the most frequently-requested specialized skill.

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

Microsoft Excel Microsoft Office

Budgeting Scheduling

Supervisory Skills Customer Service

Project Management Microsoft Powerpoint

Sales Microsoft Word

Job Postings in 2016 Ten Most-Requested Specialized Skills in the US

Source: Data from Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions that require a college degree (Associate’s or higher). Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies.

Microsoft Other

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Half of the ten fastest-growing specialized skill clusters are in healthcare.

Job Postings: Ten Fastest Growing Skill Clusters

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Supply Chain and Logistics: Inventory

Health Care: Pharmacy

Finance: Cash Management

Health Care: Medical Procedure and Regulation

Health Care: Medical Records

Marketing and Public Relations: Packaging and

Administration: Office Machines

Health Care: Patient Reception

Health Care: Medical Billing and Coding

Finance: Financial Advisement

Job Postings in 2016 Ten Fastest-Growing Skill Clusters

Source: Data from Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions that require a college degree (Associate’s or higher). Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies.

Other

Healthcare

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Job Postings: Ten Most Requested Certifications

Nationally, healthcare, especially RN, dominates the jobs requiring certification.

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000

Registered Nurse Security Clearance

Project Management Certification (e.g., PMP) Basic Cardiac Life Support Certification

Certified Public Accountant (CPA) Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS)

Series 7 American Heart Association Certificate Cert. Info. Sys. Security. Pro. (CISSP)

Nurse Practitioner

Job Postings in 2016 Ten Most-Requested Certifications in the U.S.

1. Includes only the 200 largest certifications in occupations that require at least an Associate’s degree. Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions. Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies.

Other

Healthcare

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Interpreting employment information requires a context.

Employment Data: Interpretation

Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 34

CIP 43.0107 – Criminal Justice/Police Science.

Program Scorecard: Employment

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CIP 43.0107 – Criminal Justice/Police Science.

Program Scorecard: Employment

Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 36

CIP 43.0107 – Criminal Justice/Police Science.

Program Scorecard: Employment

Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 37

Evaluating Markets for Programs Best-practices: gather sound data on four topics.

Student Demand

February 2

Employment March 2

Degree Fit

March 30

Competitive

Intensity March 30

Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 38

Employment in Context

Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 39

Summary

§  BLS data is readily available, but is dated and a weak indicator of trends.

§  Job posting data is vital for trends in employment growth, skills and certifications.

§  Aligning labor data (SOCs) with programs (CIPs) is hard and error-prone.

§  Numbers for one program lack the context needed to interpret the data.

§  Employment is only one part of the puzzle.

§  As a result, DIY is quite expensive, time-consuming, and error-prone.

§  Gray’s Program Evaluation System can do the heavy lifting for you.

Assessing employer demand in your markets is no easy task.

Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 40

Evaluating Markets for Programs On March 30th we will share best practices for assessing Competition and Fit.

Student Demand

February 2

Employment March 2

Degree Fit

March 30

Competitive

Intensity March 30

Decision-Making Process April 22

Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 41

For More Information

To contact Gray Associates:

Bob Atkins CEO

Gray Associates, Inc.

[email protected] 617-366-2836