“the best way to have a good idea is to have lots of ideas.” · putting linus pauling's...
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Putting Linus Pauling's dictum into practice:
“The best way to have a good idea is to have lots of ideas.”
John KirwanEmeritus Professor of Rheumatic Diseases
Linus Pauling (1901-1994)
• American chemist, biochemist, peace activist, author, and educator.
• One of the founders of the fields of quantum chemistry and molecular biology.
• Awarded the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 1954 and the Nobel Peace Prize in 1962.
• Only two people have been awarded Nobel Prizes in different fields, the other being Marie Skłodowska-Curie(Physics 1903, Chemistry 1911).
Linus Pauling (1901-1994)
The Pauling Principle:• The best way to have a good idea is to have a
lot of ideas and throw away the bad ones.
This implies at least two things:• one must be willing to generate many ideas• one must be willing to generate bad ideas
John’s ideas
• Since late 1994 I have made a separate folder in my computer storage for each idea I started on
• I found 186!
John’s ideas
• I went back through every folder and discovered• The date of the first file entry• How much work I did on that idea/project• What came out of it
How much work?
• From the number of files stored, and from memory, I estimated this on a 1 to 10 scale
1 – Just an initial proposal or email exchange, no follow up files
10 – Lots and lots of files, emails, notes of meetings, records of draft grant applications, draft papers, hours of soul searching…
What came out of it?
• I invented a classification scale:
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Max
imum
Out
put
Year project started
Outcomes at Dec 2015 by year project started
Outcomes(as at Dec 2015)
Outcomes(as at Dec 2015)
0102030405060708090
100Cumulative proportion of projects (%)
Especially goodBuilt onSeveral publicationsA publicationProduced some dataMoved forwardStartedThought about
Outcomes(as at Dec 2015)
31.9
9.211.4
21.117.8
4.31.6 2.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Thoughtabout
Started Movedforward
Producedsome data
A publication Severalpublications
Built on Especiallygood
Prop
ortio
n of
out
com
es (%
)
74% of projects produced no publications
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Max
imum
Out
put
Year project started
Outcomes at Dec 2015 by year project started
R=0.000
Outcomes(as at Dec 2015)
Work done(as at Dec 2015)
16.6
5.8
10.6
27.9
22.4
7.7
2.4
6.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Thoughtabout
Started Movedforward
Producedsome data
A publication Severalpublications
Built on Especiallygood
Prop
ortio
n of
wor
k (%
)
69% of work produced no publications
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10JK's Work (Estimate 0-10; 0.5 = ongoing)
Work and outcome
Especially good
Built on
Several publications
A publication
Produced some data
Moved forward
Started
Thought about
R=0.719
Work and outcome(as at Dec 2015)
Work and outcome(as at Dec 2015)
2.95
5.26
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Average work for allnon-published
Average work for allpublished
JK's
Wor
k (E
stim
ate
0-10
)
Mean (95% CI) work and publication status
T-testP <0.00001
Average work for 5 ‘Especially good’
8.70P=0.002
Time first to publication
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
1994
1998
2000
2003
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2011
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
Year of first paper
Proj
ect s
tart
(Yea
r)
Started project 1994
First publication 2000
Time to first publication = 6 years
Time first to publication
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Prop
ortio
n of
pro
ject
s (%
)
Time to first publication (years)
Mean 3.5 years (95% CI 2.9, 4.0)
Philip Hench (1896 – 1965)
• American physician awarded the Nobel Prize for Physiology or Medicine in 1950
• Discovery of cortisone and its application for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis
1929 Jaundice and pregnancy relieve symptoms (1)
1929
1938 Lecithin from adrenals tried
1938
1941 Thought Compound E might help
1941
1948 Compound E tried (1,2)
1948
1983 Harris (8)
1983
1984 Specialist Registrars call for proper investigation of glucocorticoid actions
1984
1995 ARC Study results published (7)
1995
1959, 1960 MRC /Nufield Glucocorticoid study published (3,5)
1959
1960
1967
West’s ‘lost’ report (6)
1985 Widespread condemnation of glucocorticoids but also widespread use (9)
1985
1986 ARC Study proposal published (11)
1986
1997 COBRA Study (22)
1997
1996
1998 ARC Follow up (17)
2007
2007 Cochrane meta analysis published (25)
2009
2009 NICE Guidelines (23)
1955 Empire (4)1995 van Gestel (27)
1995 Schaardenburg (26)
2002 van Everdingen (28)
2004 Suponitskaia (29) 2004 Capell (30) 2005 Svensson (31)
2005 Goekoop (32)
2005 Choy (34)
2005 Wassenberg (33)AdditionalStudies
From Philip Hench’s idea to a treatment recommendation by NHS in 80 years
Glucocorticoid timeline - 1929 to 2009
The key message...• Pauling was right!• Thinking of and testing
ideas that do not work out is an integral part of successful academic activity.
• These are not failures – they are part of the process!
