the big history of our planet approaching threshold 8
TRANSCRIPT
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The Modern Revolution The Big History of our Planet
– Approaching Threshold 8
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The pay-off to lectures on early human history
• Fundamental trends in human history – Collective learning more information – Intensification more control over biosphere – Larger, denser populations – Increasing social complexity – Intensified collective learning acceleration in pace of
change increasing impact on biosphere
• We have also seen thresholds: – Agriculture, and state formation – Now the “Modern Revolution”
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The Modern Revolution as a threshold
• Fitting modernity into the big history story – Is today’s world the most complex structure we’ve
detected in 13.8 billion years?
• Similarities with earlier thresholds? – Do we see an increase in complexity?
– Do we see increasing energy flows?
– What new ‘emergent properties’ do we see?
– What ‘goldilocks conditions’ allowed the crossing of this threshold?
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Re-thinking modernity
• Agriculture was transformative because of a sharp increase in energy flows more humans new types of societies
• The modern revolution is similar: fossil fuels provide the energy boost, transforming the world.
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Since 1850: A Global Fossil Fuels bonanza How different would today’s world be without fossil fuels?
[From Alfred Crosby, Children of the Sun, p. 162]
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Transforming the Atmosphere: CO2 levels over 800,000 years
tp://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2013/05/09/400-ppm-carbon-dioxide-in-the-atmosphere-reaches-prehistoric-levels/
• Scientific American, May 10 2013
CO2 levels have risen by 40%
since the Industrial Revolution
Humans Appear For almost 1 million years, CO2
levels between 200 & 300 ppm
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3 Main Parts to the Lecture
1. Describing the Modern Revolution
2. Explaining the Modern Revolution
3. Explaining the “Rise of the West”
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Part 1: Key features of the “Modern Revolution”
• What is different about the modern world?
• 1) End of the Old World
• 2) Rapid Population Growth
• 3) Innovation & Growth
• 4) Transportation, Communications & Globalization
• 5) The power of states increased
• 6) Life experiences transformed
• 7) New modes of thought
• 8) Acceleration
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1) End of the Old World: Worlds we have lost
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Transformations in how people “made a living”
• From a world in which most people were self-sufficient peasants
– Living similar lifeways based on the land
– Producing most of what they needed at home
– Relatively self-sufficient
• To a world in which most people were wage-earners
– Living in very diverse ways, drawing incomes
– Buying most of what they need on markets
– Utterly dependent on each other
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6,700 million
PO
PU
LA
TIO
N (
Mill
.)
FOR SOURCES: Christian, Maps of Time, p. 143, + interpolation
PALEOLITHIC ERA
MO
DE
RN
ER
A
AGRARIAN ERA
Population growth over 100,000 Years (Millions)
This astonishing spike in
human numbers is one of the
most striking features of the
‘Modern Revolution’
2) Rapid Population Growth
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Humans per Sq. Kilometer under different technologies
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
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3) Innovation & Growth
• Remarkable acceleration in rates of innovation since 1700
• More energy & resources
• Larger populations
• Improved living standards
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GDP per capita over 2 millennia CE 0-1998
Based on Maddison, The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective, p. 264
Growth per cap in the Agrarian Era
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Modern Growth depends partly on an Energy Bonanza
• Before the modern era, energy came from recently acquired energy from the Sun:
– Humans (slaves were stores of energy)
– Animals
– Biomass (e.g. wood fires)
– Wind and Water
• In the modern era, vast new sources found from older stores of energy:
– Fossil fuels (Coal, oil, natural gas), converted into Electricity
– Atomic power
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A “big history” perspective on fossil fuels
Energy pours
from the sun into
surrounding
space
The
Sun
photogr
aphed
in ultra-
violet
Fusion reactions
in the Sun’s core
generate energy
On earth, plants capture and
store some of that energy
Humans capture energy buried
hundreds of millions of years
ago, and fossilized as coal, oil,
natural gas
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Learning to exploit Fossil Fuels: James Watt’s improved steam engine
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Also 2 Types of Nuclear Power • Left: Fission reactions split
large atoms (such as Uranium)
with unstable nuclei
• Right: Fusion reactions
imitate the sun, fusing
Hydrogen atoms into Helium
• The ‘Tokamak’ fusion reaction,
Princeton
• In 1993, it generated fusion at
temperatures 3 times those at the
center of the Sun
• The heat was contained by
powerful magnetic fields
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4) Transportation, Communications & Globalization
Transportation
• Steam engines
• Steam ships
• Automobiles
• Planes
• Rockets
Information flows
• Telegraph
• Radio
• Phones
• Television
• Internet
Transportation: from the speed of a horse to a plane
Information: from the speed of a horse to the speed of light
These technologies transformed collective learning
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Global Unification of the 4 World Zones: 1) Before Columbus
Australasian
zone
Pacific
zone
= Major Hub Regions
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Global Unification of the 4 World Zones After Columbus
Australasian
zone
Pacific
zone
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5) The power of states increased • More resources & larger
populations
• More control over citizens’ lives (e.g. compulsory education)
• More coercive power and larger armies (nuclear states have the power to ruin the biosphere in a few hours)
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6) Life experiences transformed, e.g. … • Urbanization:
– 1900, c. 10% in towns
– 2000, almost 50%
• Length and experience of Life:
– Average life expectancy rose by 2-3 times
– Interpersonal violence no longer acceptable
• Decline of Family:
– The key institution in all earlier eras
– Now less important for education, health, work
– Other institutions took over these functions
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7) New modes of thought
• Science more important
– Enabled humans to extract more resources from their environment
• ‘Magical’ thinking & ‘Animistic’ thinking less important
• Religion ceased to be the dominant mode of thinking
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8) Acceleration
• Paleolithic Era significant changes over 1000s of years
• Agrarian Era significant changes over 100s of years
• Modern Era from week to week! My generation more change than in the last three thousand years
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Agrarian Era: ‘Prime Movers’ of innovation
Agrarian Era: 3 major drivers of innovation 1. DEMOGRAPHY:
Population pressure innovation
2. EXPANDING EXCHANGE NETWORKS: collective learning
3. STATE ACTIVITY: Some government activities (e.g. road building) innovation
• These drivers could not generate enough innovation to keep up with population growth
• a) Malthusian cycles b) Governments usually preferred to invest in military conquest rather than economic growth
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0
100
200
300
400
500
Po
pula
tio
n (
Mil
lio
ns)
-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
Europe (-USSR)
Indian sub-Continent
China
Malthusian Cycles in China, India, Europe400 BCE-1900 CE
Growth outstrips population growth an end to "Malthusian Cycles”?
Black Death Plagues of Late
classical era
Or worse is
yet to come?
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Modern Era: ‘Prime Movers’of innovation
Modern Era: 3 other drivers of innovation become more important
1. COMMERCE & TRADE:
2. CAPITALISM: A new Social Structure
3. EXPANDING EXCHANGE NETWORKS
• Result? A threshold in innovation growth rates so fast:
1. that innovation has kept up with population growth end of Malthusian cycles (so far!)?
2. that governments & businesses find it worthwhile to invest in real
economic growth rather than conquest
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• Adam Smith as markets expand, innovation increases
• Most modern economists agree
– Why? In competitive markets entrepreneurs must innovate to survive
• Yet:
– Commerce in all agrarian civilizations
– Why was its impact so limited?
– Because states weren't controlled by merchants?
– We must also look at social structures
Prime Mover 1: Commerce
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Prime Mover 2: Capitalism: A new Social Structure
Similar to Smith’s argument, but focuses on social structures:
• Karl Marx 2 models of society:
– ‘Capitalist’ social structures encouraged commerce and innovation
– ‘Tributary’ societies did not
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Models of 2 Types of Societies 1. Tributary Societies (e.g. all agrarian civilizations):
– Elite groups extract wealth through ‘Tributes’: i.e. through the threat of force
– Power = key to wealth, not commercial skill
2. Capitalist Societies (e.g. most modern societies):
– Elite groups extract wealth through commerce & markets
– Selling cheap = key to success
– To sell cheap you must innovate
– Capitalist Societies encourage innovation
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The Rise of ‘Capitalism’
• If this argument is right,
– The expansion of capitalism ought to increase innovation
– The most ‘capitalistic’ societies ought to have led the ‘Modern Revolution’
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Prime Mover 3: Expanding Networks of Exchange
• Innovation & Collective learning depend on the variety, size and efficiency of exchange networks
• 16th century 4 world zones joined, creating:
– The largest, most dynamic networks ever to exist
• These changes kick-started the two other drivers of innovation:
– Commerce
– Capitalism
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Marx understood the significance of joining the world zones
• From the Communist Manifesto:
• “The discovery of America, the rounding of the Cape, opened up fresh ground for the rising bourgeoisie. The East-Indian and Chinese markets, the colonisation of America, trade with the colonies, the increase in the means of exchange and in commodities generally, gave to commerce, to navigation, to industry, an impulse never before known, and thereby, to the revolutionary element in the tottering feudal society, a rapid development.”
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Conclusion of Part 2
3 drivers of innovation that were marginal in the agrarian era have become dominant:
1. Commerce
2. Capitalism
3. Expanding Networks of Exchange
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Part 3: The ‘Atlantic World’ in the Modern Revolution
• The Modern Revolution: a global process • But the ‘West’ changed first: Why?
All 3 drivers benefited Europe first: 1. COMMERCE: European societies gained most from
new, global commercial exchanges 2. CAPITALISM: European societies
more ‘capitalistic’ 3. GLOBALIZATION:
Europe and Atlantic region central to global exchange networks
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1) Commerce: European societies gained most from the first global markets
1. European ships dominated the first global trade routes from 1500 – Benefited from many forms of arbitrage
– E.g. transporting American silver to China
2. Vast profits increased the power and influence of merchants and of commerce – Commerce became increasingly important to European societies
– A growing commercial/merchant class
– States became more dependent on commerce
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2) Capitalism: European societies were ‘pre-adapted’ to modernity
1. New States: – First European states from c. 500 CE
– Formed in a more commercial era
2. Because they were new, they were‘pre-adapted’ to a more capitalist world: – Governments relied more on commerce
– Merchants more prominent & powerful
3. Competitive, medium-sized states – Desperately needed revenue but limited tax base
– C.f. China during most of its history
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3) A new global Geography: The “Atlantic Region” at the center of the 1st
global exchange network
• Globalization after 1500 CE
– Europe, uniquely, found itself at the hub of • largest
• most dynamic
– exchange Networks ever
• New flows of wealth and information stimulated innovation as never before
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Collective learning: Global Exchanges after Columbus: 1st global networks
Australasian
zone
Pacific
zone
= Major Hub Regions
Europe is at the center
of the 1st global
exchange network
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Rise of the “West”: Output of China/India v. UK/USA as % of total
world GDP 1750-1980
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Summary: The ‘Modern Revolution’ • One more fundamental transition: the ‘Modern Revolution’ • Main changes:
– Population growth accelerated – Innovation faster than ever before: new sources of energy (‘fossil fuels’) – Lifeways transformed – New ways of thinking about the world – Acceleration in the pace of change
• Explaining the Modern Revolution – Focus on explaining more rapid innovation – Three powerful drivers of innovation more powerful
• Commerce • Capitalism • Linking of different world zones collective learning goes global
• Explaining the role of ‘the West’ – Pre-adaptations: The West was peculiarly ‘capitalistic’ – Globalization: The linking of the Afro-Eurasian and American zones put the
West at the center of global exchanges of ideas and goods
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The Next Key Questions
Why was Europe roots of Modern Era? – How did commerce expand?
– How did the world become more capitalist?
– How did the world become more global?
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EXPANSION OF EXCHANGE NETWORKS AND COMMERCE:
Viking Voyages: 800-1100 CE
A Viking
Longship
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Travels of a Venetian trader: Marco Polo: 1271-95
Crossing Afro-Eurasia by land & sea
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Unprecedented Journeys: Marco Polo and his uncles set off for China, 1271 (Illustr. from 1375)
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Increasing international trade e.g. High-fired ceramics and Porcelain • A Chinese monopoly for a millennium
• For 1,000 ys. a Eurasia-wide prestige item
• Unique vehicle for trans-Eurasian exchanges of
– Artistic styles
– Technologies
– Commercial techniques
• Monopoly broken from 1708 (Meissen)
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Chinese porcelain trade • Early evidence of exports to India and
Mediterranean: – Exports of ceramics by sea increased as Song China cut off
from northern routes
– Ceramics cheap and easy to transport by sea
– Stimulating demand in the Muslim world
• Porcelains sold in Muslim world from 9th c.
Packing porcelain for transportation
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Porcelain, almost translucent
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Why did innovation not spread?
1. After 1279, China united again
– Less need for revenues from commerce (government banned all foreign trade by native Chinese)
– Return to traditional tributary revenues mainly from land
2. The world not yet united enough or commercial enough for an ‘industrial revolution’
– Global communications still slow
– Chinese inventions spread slowly
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Commerce encouraged Capitalism • Increasing commerce affected
– Peasants
– Rulers
– Merchants, entrepreneurs, bankers
• i.e. societies became more capitalistic
• Remember: A ‘Capitalist’ society is one in which
1. Goods exchanged through markets (not tributes)
2. Entrepreneurs call the shots (not traditional rulers)
3. Most people are wage-earners (not peasants)
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As commerce spread, peasants had to become more ‘capitalistic’
To buy goods and pay taxes, peasants had to earn wages or sell goods
on local markets.
A modern rural
market in Lomé, the
capital of Togo
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Rulers of smaller states more commercialized & ‘capitalistic’
• Large imperial states (e.g. China), with huge populations and plenty of tax revenue from the land, did not need to support commerce
• Smaller states needed commercial revenues to survive, so … – They supported commerce & borrowed from bankers
– Merchants became more powerful
– Early forms of capitalism thrived
• Commercial City States, e.g. Venice, or Genoa – used commercial wealth to pay for powerful navies and armies
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Venice, a purely commercial power, dominated trade between the Islamic
world and Christian Europe The Doge’s
palace, Venice
(building started
c. 1340)
Venice was
ruled by
merchants: very
different from
traditional
tributary states
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Charles V Holy Roman Emperor • 1530: The German Banker, Anton Fugger, burns
money to impress Emperor Charles V
In the 16th century,
major European
rulers depended
increasingly on
loans from wealthy
merchants
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The Commercial Dynamism of European States
• By comparison with the great tributary empires, W. European states were – Small and had limited revenues – Engaged in constant warfare
• Needed commercial revenues to survive, so they tended to support trade – With money – And military force, where necessary
• Spanish, Portuguese, Dutch, English colonial empires
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Increasing commerce led to important innovations in Europe
• Many innovations borrowed from China • SHIPPING, COMMUNICATIONS AND WARFARE:
– Improved ships (Portuguese “caravel”), compass – Paper and printing (Gutenberg, 1453) – Cannons that could be carried on ships
• BANKING AND FINANCE: – More efficient ways of transferring cash – New types of joint-stock companies
• Government-supported commercial voyages by sea – Portugal, Spain, then England, Netherlands, trying to link up with
the rich trading networks of the Indian Ocean – the first global networks of exchange
• EUROPE SUDDENLY AT THE CENTER
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Columbus’ 4 voyages: 1492-1504
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Magellan’s voyage: 1519-22 A momentous turning point in World History
The first person to circumnavigate the globe
was probably a Malay slave and interpreter,
Panglima Awang, who was returned home
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Spain’s power depended on control of American silver & trade
The Spanish Empire in 1770 European navigators went looking
for a share of the biggest markets
in the world, in S.E. Asia
RESULT? GLOBAL TRADE: Spanish silver, mined by slaves
from Africa, allowed European Spain to buy goods from E. Asia
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Europe after Columbus: at the centre of the first global networks!
Australasian
zone
Pacific
zone
= Major Hub Regions
Europe is at the center
of the 1st global
exchange network
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The impact on European thought
• Huge flows of new information through Europe – Awareness of new cultures and ways of thought
– Forced them to question former ways of thinking
– And ask new questions:
• New Questions: – How could you know what was true? – Were there universal principles true in all parts of the
world?
• These questions are the start of modern science
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Modern Science: Galileo
Galileo Galilei (1564-1642), argued
that knowledge can be tested by
careful observation
One of the first telescopes.
Galileo used them to show that the moon had
craters, and Jupiter had many moons
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Science: Sir Isaac Newton
Sir Isaac Newton (1642-
1727).
Showed that the laws of
gravity were universal.
They worked in heaven
and on earth.
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WHAT CHANGED AFTER 1700?
Just about everything!
Next Lecture: the take-off into modernity
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Summary: On the eve of the ‘Modern Revolution’
• What changed? – Commerce spread – Globalization: networks of exchange now global – Capitalism: affecting societies everywhere – Europe:
• Now at the centre of global networks of exchange • New ideas beginning to take hold
• What didn’t change? – In 1700 traditional empires were still dominant – Most people still lived as traditional peasants – The ‘Modern Revolution’ had not yet started