The Carolina Covenant®

Presented to:

Projects Promoting Equity in Urban and Higher EducationThe Center for Educational Outreach

The National Center for Institutional DiversityThe University of Michigan

March 19, 2010

Shirley A. OrtAssociate Provost and Director of Scholarships & Student Aid

Promise & Platform for Student Success

The Covenant in ContextPopulation Shifts in North Carolina

North Carolina has one of the nation’s fastest-growing populations

From about 9.3 million today, population projected to reach 12.2 million by 2030, making N.C. the 7th most populous state

Much of the growth will occur among less affluent populations.

North Carolina currently ranks 11th (ties with Georgia) among all states in the percentage of its population living below the federal poverty level (14.3%). Source: Mabe, Alan. (September 2005).  The Demographic, Economic, and educational Context for the

University of North Carolina: 2006-2011 Long Range Plan.  The University of North Carolina General Administration.  Retrieved March 12, 2010. http://intranet.northcarolina.edu/docs/aa/planning/longplan/LRP_2004-2009_Supl_Trends_Affecting_NC_Higher_Ed_(III).pdf

The Covenant in ContextDemographic Shifts in North Carolina

North Carolina population growth by race, ethnicity,

and nativity1990-2005

Source: Johnson, James. (September 2005).  North Carolina’s Higher Education Demographic Challengers.  Kenan-Flagler Business School, UNC-Chapel Hill.  Retrieved March 12, 2010. http://www.northcarolina.edu/nctomorrow/Johnson_-_Demographics_Brief-Final1.pdf

The Carolina Covenant . . .

Carolina is – and will remain – accessible and affordable for academically prepared students from low-income backgrounds

Created in 2003, implemented in Fall 2004, it will endure – a promise to future generations.

Nearly 2,300 Covenant Scholars have benefited since the start of the program in Fall 2004 (1,800 currently enrolled)

. . . Our promise to current & future students

How the Covenant Works “Need blind” admission to the University

Covenant Scholars named based upon program eligibility and low-income status (200% federal poverty level or below)

Median family income of Covenant Scholars: $26,026

Scholars’ financial “packages” composed of grants, scholarships, and a Work Study job (i.e., “no loans”) for up to 9 semesters

Research demonstrates that large grants, when combined with a part-time job and limited borrowing, positively influence the academic success of low-income students (Jacqueline King, Crucial Choices, 2003)

Fall 200

4

Fall 2005

Fall 2006

Fall 200

7

Fall 200

8

Fall 200

9

Number of New Covenant Scholars

224 350 417 398 410 537

Average High School GPA 4.21 4.25 4.19 4.26 4.30 4.31

Average SAT Scores 1209

1223 1198

1202

1206

1230

State of Origin: North Carolina

87% 89% 84% 87% 84% 84%

North Carolina Counties Represented

68 74 72 77 74 78

Gender

Female 69% 63% 61% 63% 60% 61%

Male 31% 37% 39% 37% 40% 39%

Students of Color 63% 60% 63% 61% 61% 62%

First Generation 55% 52% 57% 53% 55% 57%[*] The income threshold for consideration for the Carolina Covenant was initially established at 150% of federal poverty guidelines. Starting in fall 2005, it was increased to encompass students with parents’ adjusted gross income up to 200% of the federal poverty standard.

Characteristics of Covenant Scholars*

Changes in Covenant Population

Initial 2004 cohort (N=224): All were first-year students with family incomes under 150% of poverty level

Additions to 2005 – 2009 Cohorts:– Family income 151- 200% of poverty level

• Additional 100 scholars per year; jumped to 139 in 2009

– Transfer students• Started with 26 in 2005; grown to 92 in 2009• Close to 20% of total cohort

Broadened Eligibility

Number of New Covenant Scholars

N = 537 83% First-Year17% Transfer

First-Year Covenant Scholars are similar to their peers in terms of residency, gender, and high school GPA. But they differ in other ways.

Covenant(11%)

Other Needy(27%)

No Need(62%)

Average SAT Scores 1230 1284 1324

Students of Color 62% 40% 28%

First Generation 57% 24% 8%

Median parental income

$26,026 $53,199 $100,000+

Profile of Covenant Scholars, Fall 2009

Support for Covenant Scholars

Financial Aid

University Embrace

Programming and Mentoring

“More than money”

Financial Aid to Scholars, 2009-10

*Loans taken at Scholar’s own initiative

Grants$32,974,39

0

Loans* $1,747,656

Work Study $689,752

Federal $10,768,162

State $10,132,694

Institutional / Private $14,510,942

Financial Aid by Type

Financial Aid by Source

Total Aid | $35,411,798

Programming and Mentoring

Orientation (for Scholars and parents)

Faculty/staff and peer mentors

Special programming and opportunities

Learning skills workshops (time management, note taking, studying for math, writing skills, preparing for exams, etc.)

Business etiquette, dining skills, public speaking

Pre-med seminars

Financial literacy

Tickets to performing arts events Receptions and celebration events

Academic tracking, “interventions” & learning contracts

Community Embrace

Comprehensive infrastructure of support services and special programming

Some of our many Covenant Partners Faculty and Administration – Mentoring and financial

support Admissions and University Relations – Outreach and

promotion College of Arts and Sciences – Advising and Academic

Services Diversity and Multicultural Affairs – Outreach programs Student Affairs – Orientation, Career Services, Counseling Carolina Performing Arts – Vouchers for artistic events Development Office – Fundraising (currently $11 million) Institutional Research – Data and program evaluation The Medical School – Seminars and mentoring The Coach!

Assessing Covenant Scholar Progress

Approach to evaluating the success of Covenant Scholars is based upon prior research findings:

• National Studies: Students from low-income families do not persist or graduate at the same rates as their classmates (Edward St. John, 2008; Cliff Adelman, 2007).

• Carolina’s 2004 Retention Study: Socio-economic

factors (family income, parent education, etc.) were significant predictors of retention and graduation, even after controlling for entering academic preparation.

Goal: To determine if the Covenant award helps close the gap in degree attainment between low- income students and other students.

Indicators of Student Success

Academic Achievement

Retention Rates

Graduation Rates

Compared the success of first cohort of Covenant Scholars in 2004 to that of a matched group of students from the 2003 entering class who would have been eligible for the Covenant, had it existed.

Also compared performance of Covenant Scholars to their classmates with less need and those with no need.

2003 Control Group

N = 3,511

Covenant-Eligible (224)

Other Needy (967)

No Need (2,320)

2004 CohortN = 3,589

Covenant Recipients (224)

Other Needy (1,035)

No Need (2,331)

Evaluation Design

[*] The income threshold for consideration for the Carolina Covenant was initially established at 150% of federal poverty guidelines. Starting in fall 2005, it was increased to encompass students with parents’ adjusted gross income up to 200% of the federal poverty standard.

2004 Cohort Group Comparisons*

  Covenant Other Needy No Need

Number 224 1,035 2,330Mean High School GPA 4.21 4.26 4.31

Mean SAT 1209 1257 1307

In-State Resident 87% 80% 82%

Gender: Female 69% 61% 56% Male 31% 39% 44%

Students of Color 63% 38% 18%

First Generation 55% 25% 6%

Academic Achievement

Grade Point Average:

– Average GPA for 2004 Covenant Scholars at graduation was within 2/10ths of a point of the average for all students.

Academic Eligibility:

– Number of 2004 Covenant Scholars who became academically ineligible was considerably lower (17%) than the 2003 Control Group .

Retention Rate Comparisons

By year four, the entering class of 2004 Covenant Scholars had persisted at a considerably higher rate than the Covenant students in the 2003 Control Group.

The 2004 Covenant Scholars closed much of the persistence gap observed between the low income group and others in the 2003 Control Group.

GroupEnrolled in Year 4

2003 Control Group

2004 CohortPercentage Point

Improvement

Covenant 84.3% 89.6% 5.3%

Other Needy 87.6% 88.2% 0.6%

No Need 90.5% 91.6% 1.1%

All Students 89.3% 90.5% 1.2%

Year 4 percentage adjusted for 3-year graduates.

Retention Rates By Need Status and Year in SchoolImprovement in Percentage Retained: 2004 Cohort vs. 2003 Control Group

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%

Total

No Need

Other Needy

Covenant

Year 2 0.8% 0.7% 1.1% 0.9%

Year 3 1.5% 1.2% 1.7% 5.3%

Year 4 1.2% 1.1% 0.6% 5.3%

Total No Need Other Needy Covenant

Year 4 percentage adjusted for 3-year graduates.

Graduation Rates

Increases in Carolina’s overall graduation rates within 8 and 9 semesters have been greatest among financially needy students.

While their graduation rates are still somewhat below those of non-needy students, the gap has been reduced considerably.

Carolina Covenant Scholars improved more than did any other group.

General Trends

Graduation Rates

GroupGraduated within 8 Semesters

2003 Control Group

2004 CohortPercentage Point

Improvement

Covenant 56.7% 61.9% 5.2%

Other Needy 71.8% 71.2% -0.6%

No Need 77.0% 78.9% 1.9%

All Students 74.3% 75.6% 1.3%

GroupGraduated within 9 Semesters

2003 Control Group

2004 CohortPercentage Point

Improvement

Covenant 69.6% 72.7% 3.1%

Other Needy 78.3% 77.4% -0.9%

No Need 83.9% 84.7% 0.8%

All Students 81.5% 81.9% 0.4%

Among Comparison Groups

-2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%

Total

No Need

Other Needy

Covenant

8th Semester 1.3% 1.9% -0.6% 5.2%

9th Semester 0.4% 0.8% -0.9% 3.0%

Total No Need Other Needy Covenant

Graduation RatesImprovement in Percentage Graduated:

2004 Cohort vs. 2003 Control Group

Graduation Rates

Cohort

N

Graduated

Within 4 Yrs

Within 5 Yrs

Within 6 Yrs

N % N % N %

2003* 224 127 56.7%

170 75.9%

173 77.2%

2004 222 138 62.2%

171 77.0%

. 

2005 326 214 65.6%

.   . 

* Control group

as of Late 2009

2005 Covenant Cohort

Greatest gains were seen among men.

Note in particular the significant gains among both Black and Caucasian men.

Women remained relatively stable, generally performing somewhat higher than men.

Graduation Rates

-4.8%

+19.8%

+11.8%

+33.3%

-0.7%

+21.2%

-1.9%

+18.4%

Conclusion & DiscussionPinpointing the Covenant’s Impact

Preliminary indications point toward significant improvement in the academic success of Carolina Covenant Scholars.

Financial support clearly matters, but the impact goes beyond money.

Which support programs have the greatest effect?

What accounts for the sizable increase in graduation rates among men?

Summer School Contract Initiative Developed in response to observations that

academically ineligible Covenant students receiving grants to attend summer school to regain good standing had a lower “cure” rate than predicted.

Summers of 2008 and 2009: Changed policy; ineligible Covenant Scholars attending summer school were given loans that could be converted to grants if they signed a learning contract and fulfilled its conditions.

Analysis conducted by RTI compared success rates to 2006 and 2007 summer school attendees

88.6%

77.8%

58.8%52.4%

Summer school 2008 Summer school 2009

Signed contract Did not sign contract

Outcomes By Contract Status

†74.2%

†82.9%

*88.6%

*77.8%

75.8%

81%

76.4%

61.5%

50

60

70

80

90

100

2006 2007 2008 2009

Covenant Scholars Non-Covenant Scholars

Among students coded as academic ineligibility-pending who attended summer school, by signed contract status and Carolina Covenant status: UNC summer school 2006 through 2009

† Pre-contract* Signed contract

Restored Academic Eligibility Rates