The Case for Joint Installation and Community Climate Resilience PlanningPresented by Jon Philipsborn, Climate Adaptation Practice Director, Americas

The Premise− Installations depend on surrounding communities− Communities depend on installations− Increasing extreme weather events creating direct impacts

and causing cascading impacts− This affects installations’ ability to focus on and fully carry out

mission

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Identifyshared

vulnerabilities

Define opportunities for

collaborationIncrease

joint resilience

OutlineSetting the StageJoint planning already occurs; why a need for added focus?

Case StudyCamp Lejeune and Onslow County, NC

Enhancing Joint Disaster Resilience PlanningOptions for increased opportunities

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Image of Tyndall AFB after Hurricane Michael courtesy Liliana Moreno/U.S. Air Force

Setting the StageWhy is Joint Installation& Community Resilience Planning increasingly important –particularly in the Southeast?

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Setting the StageExtreme Weather EventsMore frequent/increased severity−Multiple hazards across

geographies − Floods; hurricanes; fires; extreme heat

−Compounding events magnify impacts, risks, and recovery challenges

−Especially true in the Southeast

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Setting the StageChanging Risk ProfilesRisk profilesare changing−Sea level rise− Increasing temperatures

New or exacerbated threats−Coastal flooding−Extreme heat impact to

infrastructure, health, and safety−Wildfire

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Source: NOAA Climate.gov

Setting the StageChanging Risk Profiles

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Flood53 60

Wildfires36 43

Drought43 48

79Mission AssurancePriority Installations

Desert6 6

ThawingPermafrost

1 1# of these installations at risknow in 20 yrs

Adapted from Report on Effects of a Changing Climate to the Department of Defense, 2019

Setting the StageChanging Landscape

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Data courtesy U.S. Census

5.96% U.S. population growth(April 2010 - Jul 2018)

SERegion

MS AL TN GA NC SC FL

+0.6% +2.3% +6.7% +8.6% +8.9% +9.9% +13.3%

− Growing regional populations, including municipalities surrounding installations

− Installations and communitiesare physically closer/more interconnected

− Development can exacerbate hazards (e.g. floods)

− Reduction of ecosystem services (e.g. flood reduction)

− Stressed/aging infrastructure

Setting the StageThis is HappeningInstallations and surrounding communities are being affected across region, but not uniformly

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Tyndall AFB(Severe)

Norfolk Naval Base(Nuisance)

Camp Lejeune(“Moderate”)

Image Airforce Industry Day For Tyndall Briefing

95%of buildings

are impacted

Image courtesy Antonio P. Turretto Ramos/U.S. NavyImage courtesy Isaiah Gomez /U.S. Marine Corps

Direct Impacts Indirect ImpactsInfrastructureTraining Areas

Natural Resources

Neighboring communitiesDependencies/

co-dependencies(“Installation Lifelines”)

Setting the StageHow Installations are Impacted

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Setting the StageLifelines & Cascading Impacts

Installation Lifelines

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Power Water

Transportation

Traditionalthinking

Food Fuel

Communication HazMat

Meds

Also need toconsider

Setting the StageCascading Impacts− Sequence of impacts

in which each produces circumstances necessary for initiation of thenext impact

− Chain of impacts/events− Climate change

stressors/shocks oftenhave many interdependencies

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Drivetoo fast tomake up

time

Getspeeding

ticket

Cascading Impacts

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− Identify how climate stressor and event may impact ability to deliver your mission

− Identify overlapping physical, social, and economic impacts among different stakeholders

− Identify stakeholders and collaborators needed to address impacts

− Consider broader implications and connections / overlaps among stakeholders

Extreme Flooding

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Extreme Flooding

Roads Closed

Civilians can’t get to base

Daily duties can’t be completed

Rescheduling and reprioritizing lead to Mission distraction or worse

Supplies can’t come in

Food and Fuel shortages occur

Installation experiences shortages

Installation forced to ration; Mission distraction

Health and safety issues increase

Community experiences shortages Personnel can’t

leave baseMission affected

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Extreme Flooding

Power failure

Schools Closed

Kids home; Parents home

Worker shortage; Civilians can’t go to work

Alternative emergency shelter needed

Mission impaired

Mission distracted

Setting the StageUnderstanding Vulnerabilities

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Dynamicsare changingin Installation-Community

physicalsetting

Installationscan be impactedin multiple ways;leading to direct/indirect impacts

on mission

Impacts cancascade in both

directionsin the installation/

communityrelationship

Image of Camp Lejeune after Hurricane Florence courtesy Isaiah Gomez U.S. Marine Corps

Case StudyCamp Lejeune& Onslow County

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Case Study: Camp Lejeune & Onslow CountyOverview

MCASNew River/

CampGeiger

CampLejeune

CampJohnson

NC

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Case Study: Camp Lejeune & Onslow CountyOverview

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= 10,000 people

16,000 live inmilitary housing

44,000 live off-postand depend on community/Onslow County recovery resources

Base has 60,000 people

Case Study: Camp Lejeune & Onslow CountyHurricane Florence

Hurricane Florence− September 13-15, 2018− 20-40 inches of rain− Record-breaking 9-13 feet

of storm surges (NC Coast)

Hurricane Matthew two years before (9/2016)

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Image of Hurricane Florence over Mid-Atlantic Coast. From Onslow County Hurricane Florence After-Action Report”

Case Study: Camp Lejeune & Onslow CountyDirect Impacts: Damages

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1,400buildings with tarpedroofs/needing repair

66Kresidents without

power

NC

2Kcitizensseeking

emergencyshelter

800K+cubic feet of

debris

Case Study: Camp Lejeune & Onslow CountyDirect Impacts: Financial

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$3.2Bin damages on

military installations

$1.5Bin County damages

(not including bases)

NC

$7.8Min cleanup costs

+ 3 months

Case Study: Camp Lejeune & Onslow CountyTransportation Network− Pre-storm: County

transportation service provider over-burdened by size of evacuation need

− Debris clearing neededto open roads

− Post-event: challenges on “reentering” County − Not only physical impasses,

but communication on which roads were open

− Florence forced closureof ~1,300 roads− Base/communities became

islands− “Flooding of major highways

became the largest issue during the storm. This single issue impeded the responding agencies’ ability to move personnel, resources, fuel, and equipment.” - Onslow County Hurricane Florence After-Action Report

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Case Study: Camp Lejeune & Onslow CountyLifelines

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Schools• None (36) had

emergencygenerators

• Designatedas emergencyshelters

• 34 schoolsdamaged

• Some closedfor ~ 2 months

Hospitals• No power to Onslow

Memorial Hospital

Police• Police had fuel,

but no electricityto pump/no backup generator

Grocery/Food• Store shelves

decimated before storm

• No power in grocery stores for 4-5 days

• Shelf-stable criticalfood and other perishables tossed; dry goods wet/perishable

• No re-supplies dueto road closures

Fuel• Challenges

maintaining fuel supplies/access to additional fuel supplies

Case Study: Camp Lejeune & Onslow CountyResource Limitations

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Limited Funding Finite # of Contractors

Lots of competition among counties… and States

Case Study: Camp Lejeune & Onslow CountyOther Observations

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Aginginfrastructure

didn’t helpNatural

systemscouldn’t work

as needed(rivers “clogged”

from previousstorms)

Countieswant to expandbut lack proper

planning/zoning

Impact ofencroachmenton installationranges/training

lands

Build-up tofence loses

protective buffer

OnslowCounty’s

populationgrowth stresses

existingdynamics(good/bad)

Case Study: Camp Lejeune & Onslow CountySteps Forward

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Onslow County, NCAfter-Action Report/Action Plan

Camp Lejeune/Surrounding Community

Communications: Create “View Only” shelter boards for Camp Lejeune/New RiverDecision-making: Coordinate with Camp Lejeune/New River Emergency Management Offices to identify liaisons for County EOCLocal resources: Identify resource request methods to support civilian-to-military requests

4 NC counties around base have been asked to develop “All Hazards Plan”; including Camp Lejeune inputReturning some developed space to natureResilient rebuilding (e.g. elevating, etc.)

How to ImproveJoint Resilience PlanningOptions for Increased Collaboration

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Improving OptionsKey ThemesFor successful joint installation-community resilience planning we need:

Improvedprioritization

Planning for the “right”scenarios

Everyone at the table

Funding(more/flexible)

considersnew scenarios/

risks

emphasizesstakeholderengagement

identifiesand seeks to address

cascading impacts

influencesprioritization

process

Improving Options: Joint Land Use Studies (JLUS)Existing ApproachJoint Land Use Studies can be a tool that

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Improving Options: Joint Land Use StudiesNorfolk & Virginia Beach JLUS− Hampton Roads Planning

District Commission(HRPDC) primary sponsor

− Concentrations of wherepeople live (military/civilian)

− Community assets(incl. transportation)critical to installation

− What happens whenthese areas/assets arecut off by flooding?

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Improving Options: Joint Land Use StudiesHRPDC Joint Land Use StudyHigh interdependencyLocal governments, Navy,other infrastructure providers

3 defined flood scenarios(with sea level rise projections)

22 actions and related coordination strategies5 core challenges identifiedGetting to work / Accessing community facilities and services / Managing stormwater / Maintaining utility services / Coordinating between jurisdictions

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Improving Options: A New ApproachDisaster Resilience Scorecard− Existing tool for cities

that holistically assessesdisaster preparednessand resilience

− Can be tailored specificallyfor a joint installation andcommunity process

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Improving Options: A New ApproachDisaster Resilience Scorecard− Resilience defined by “Ten

Essentials of Disaster Risk Reduction”

− Focuses on city/metro area− Quantitative tool to construct

multi-year “blueprint’ for actionsto improve preparedness and efficiently apply capital expenditures

− Tool to understand elementsof resilience

− Encourages engagementof all stakeholders

− Individual assessments define preparedness− Definition of a “counsel of perfection”− Questions with 0-5 rating− Not a tool to compare city “A” to city

“B”− Sets baseline to periodically re-

evaluate− Engages local private sector when

possible− Free for anyone to use

The Ten Essentials can equally apply to Installations.

• Multi-disciplinary focus within Installation

• Coordination with “life-line” stakeholders.

• Coordination with surrounding communities

• What are the right Scenarios, given climate change?

• Are Installation and Communities using same scenarios?

• Financial risk analysis –monetize potential event impacts.

• Direct and indirect costs.• What funding can be

accessed and prioritized.

• Incorporation of resiliency into master plans – on-site and in community

• Application of design codes as required by risks in #2.

• Lay-out and design of facilities.

• Preservation of natural features that may help protect infrastructure and the region.

• Identification of investment opportunities in nature-based solutions

• Skills and training for disaster response –within and outside the Installation.

• Data and metrics.• Address turnover

issues.• Exposure and vulnerability of all key

systems.• Not just traditional “Critical Infrastructure”

but “Life Line” Infrastructure for Installation and Communities – what are shared infrastructure vulnerabilities

• Prioritize resilience upgrades.

• Disaster planning, rehearsals etc., including community engagement.

• Response capabilities based on likely need.

• Prioritizing response.

• Engagement of civilians to build regional resilience capacity – increased community resilience will reduce need post disaster.

• Enhanced capabilities for post event recovery – plans, triage strategies, post event organization…

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Stamford - Summary

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Improving Options: New ResourcesDefense Community Infrastructure Program− 2019 National Defense Authorization Act, HR. 5155, Subtitle

D, Section 2816 − Authorizes defense community infrastructure pilot program

that could provide funding to state/local governments to address deficiencies in community infrastructure supportive of a military installation

− Funding not yet appropriated for the program – at Congress

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What Now?40

Conclusion

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What we know What we need– Link between installations

and communities is strong– Extreme weather events

are increasing; climate change and land use development are changing risk profiles

– Targeted emphasis on shared vulnerabilities

– Joint planning around shared opportunities

– Increased disaster resilience