May 2012

The changing face of the planet: The role of bioenergy, biofuels and bio-based products

in global land use change

NNFCCThe Bioeconomy Consultants

As the world’s population increases and greater pressure is put on global resources we need to think carefully about how we manage the ground beneath our feet and what changes to land use will mean to environmentally responsible businesses.

Despite adopting more efficient practices, our appetite for energy, fuels and materials continues to grow and so too does the cost of fossil fuel. The challenge we now face is to find a cost-effective, sustainable solution to this problem but is large-scale biomass cultivation the answer? NNFCC takes a closer look at the issues.

Why biomass?

Plants convert solar radiation into biomass, which can be used to make food, feed, fuel, energy and materials. Biomass shares many properties with fossil fuels, after all coal and oil is simply biomass which has undergone a physical and chemical change under extreme pressure and temperature.

But biomass has one crucial property that makes it unique; it is renewable and takes just a few years to make instead of thousands or even millions of years.

It also has a key advantage over other low carbon technologies. Biomass fixes carbon into something tangible which can be stored and moved, and will be available even when the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing.

As a source of energy we can use it to meet peak demand in national electricity grids. It is also our only low carbon alternative to natural gas and liquid transport fuels. And as a source of chemicals it provides a viable alternative to many oil-based plastics.

Growing demand for biomass

Responsibility for developing low carbon sources of energy, like biofuels and bioenergy, often falls on government. But the drivers vary between countries and this is having a major role in shaping the developing market.

Do we have enough land to feed the planet and produce the low carbon energy, fuels and materials needed by a

population expected to reach 9 billion by 2050?

Around 85% of the energy, fuels & materials we use come from irreplacable fossil fuels.

In Europe, energy policy is largely geared towards reducing the carbon emissions associated with energy and fuel production.

More environmentally friendly fuel and energy markets are being stimulated to meet future targets set out by the Renewable Energy Directive and new sustainability criteria will ensure biomass is sourced responsibly.

In comparison, economic development plays a far more important role in countries like Canada and in the Baltics, where their large wood resources are exported for use in the paper, timber and woodfuel sectors.

Similarly in Brazil, the established infrastructure and suitable climate make conditions ideal for growing sugar cane and they export over a billion dollars worth of bioethanol each year1 to international fuel and chemical markets.

In fact, Brazilian bioethanol exports are second only in the world to the US1, where long-term energy security is now as much of a political priority as short-term economic growth.

According to the BP Statistical Review2, 753 billion barrels or close to 55 per cent of the world’s oil can be found in the Middle East. The US in comparison contains around 2 per cent of the world’s

oil reserves but currently uses more than 21 per cent of it. This also means that with current trends, US oil reserves will be depleted in the next 10 years2, putting even greater pressure on oil imports.

This has driven the US to invest millions into developing the market for domestically grown biofuels and mandating their use through the Renewable Fuel Standard.

In comparison to energy and fuel markets, the role of the consumer in the bio-based products market is far more prominent. This is partly because the market is considerably smaller but also because there is more direct contact between product and consumer.

Consumers are increasingly familiar with terms like ‘low carbon’, ‘sustainable’ and ‘eco-friendly’, and this is having an impact on what they buy.

Studies3 have shown that nearly 50 per cent of consumers say environmental issues affect their purchasing decisions.

Consequently brands are looking to demonstrate sustainability and show corporate social responsibility by investing in bio-based products like bioplastics, compostable packaging and renewable building materials to give them an advantage in the marketplace.

Brands are also aware of the role that campaigners can have on consumer choices, as demonstrated by the Greenpeace campaign against Nestlé’s use of unsustainable palm oil which prompted Nestlé to change their procurement policy.

Competition for land

On paper we have more than enough room to satisfy our appetite for food, feed, bioenergy, biofuels and bioplastics for decades to come.

Bioplastics currently account for a little over 1% of the world plastics market.

Carbon recycling: an integrated approach.

According to the FAO and OECD4 we could more than double the amount of land currently in crop production around the globe, from 1400 million to over 3300 million hectares.

However, not all of this land can sustainably be brought into cultivation. Population growth, protection of food security and changing diets will increase competition for land dramatically.

We also need to protect our ecosystem services, forests and areas of high biodiversity against exploitation.

Projections4 suggest this will leave between 250 and 800 million hectares of land available for other uses.

But precisely how much of this land will be needed to satisfy the growing demands for bioenergy, biofuels and bioplastics remains a source of uncertainty.

Looking to the future

Being prepared for the future allows businesses to develop the correct business development strategy that will give them the edge over their competitors.

Predicting how land use will change over the forthcoming years is hugely complex but vitally important to anyone investing in the biomass supply chain.

Land requirements for biomass will depend on how future markets and technologies develop, and also how quickly we can continue along the path towards a circular economy where ‘waste’ becomes the raw material for other processes.

We are starting to see significant progress in this area and those who are not aware of the developing market are at risk of being left behind.

Land use from different bio-based marketsin 2030 (ranges given in brackets).

Market Percentage of total market in 2030

Land required, millions of hectares

Bioenergy & Biofuels5 3 (1 to 9) 117 (50 to 300)Bioplastics 10 (5 to 20) 14 (4 to 55)Total - 129 (54 to 355)

Although bioenergy and biofuels will increasingly utilise non-food feedstocks to meet sustainability demands, crops grown for energy and fuel production could use some 117 million hectares of agriclutural land by 2030, if we assume some “extended” land use5.

In addition, if the bioplastics industry continues to grow at its current rate, they could replace up to 10 per cent of all plastics by 2030. This could require an additional 14 million hectares of land.

Combining the estimated size of the bioenergy, biofuels and bioplastics markets by 2030 suggests we would require more than 130 million hectares of land.

This falls within the range of land area potentially available for non-food crops. But even converting this “available” land remains a challenge, as much of it is on continents like Africa and South America, often far from agricultural infrastructure and significant investment would be needed to realistically make this land available for cultivating crops.

This can lead to land grabbing and population displacement; two major issues that are stifling progress. In addition, when we look further into the future, land is likely to become further constrained as the finite amount of land we have available is put under increased pressure from the growing global economy.

13% of the coarse grain,15% of the vegetable oil& 30% of the sugar cane

grown globally in 2020 couldbe used to make biofuels4.

And should bioenergy and biofuels represent 6 per cent of the total global energy market by 2050; the land needed for crops could rise to 400 million hectares, if we assume some “extended” land use5.

The use of biomass for plastics production will also continue to increase. By 2050 bioplastics could account for up to 20 per cent of all plastics or around 142 million tonnes per year. This would require 34 million hectares of land.

This means that all together we may need over 430 million hectares to meet our requirements for bioenergy, biofuels and bioplastics in 2050, which could seriously test the limits of the amount of land sustainably available for growing non-food crops.

Land use from different bio-based markets in 2050 (ranges given in brackets).

Market Percentage of total market in 2050

Land required, millions of hectares

Bioenergy & Biofuels5

6 (1 to 18) 400 (100 to 700)

Bioplastics 20 (10 to 40) 34 (10 to 200)Total - 434 (110 to 900)

As competition for resources increases this could potentially drive up feedstock costs and put greater pressure on sustainability; directly and indirectly impacting on biodiversity, water and fertiliser use across the globe.

For example, some parts of America, Western Europe and Southern Asia may become almost entirely dependent on imports of nutrients.

Waste biomass is set to become an increasingly important resource.

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Predicted biomass demand scenarios versus land availability in 2030 and 2050.

2030 2050

What is the solution?

Future land use is difficult to predict but what is certain is that competition for land will increase.

We can minimise competition for land by increasing it’s productivity. Improved breeding and management techniques will increase the productivity of crops, particularly non-food crops, like willow and Miscanthus, which have been largely uncultivated6. An annual yield increase of just 2 per cent would double production volumes by 2050 without any land expansion.

We can also use these feedstocks better. For example, we can produce 3.1 tonnes of polyethylene from a hectare of brazilian sugar cane but the same hectare of brazilian sugar cane can make 7.9 tonnes of polylactic acid. Both are used in the production of bioplastics that offer similar functionality.

Energy markets could also benefit from adopting more efficient practices. In the UK, co-firing of coal and wood is an efficient way to make electricity but this may not be the best use of our resources7,8.

Technological advances in fermentation, gasification and pyrolysis, have made it possible to convert biomass into electricity, heat, fuels and chemicals at high conversion efficiencies. This approach also allows us to make better use of non-food feedstocks such as wood, algae, household rubbish and agricultural residues.

High volumes of agricultural residues are generated in South America and Asia, and are likely to increase in the medium term in line with food production. By utilising these resources we can reduce demands on land while still returning some of the nutrients back to the soil.

Predicted biomass demand scenarios versus land availability in 2030 and 2050. Global supply constraints and opportunities in 2050.

Another promising option for reducing land use requirements is to build intergrated biorefineries. By building refineries that produce food, feed, energy, fuel, chemicals and nutrients together; we can minimise waste and produce a wide range of chemicals and fuels tailored to specific purposes.

In many cases there are also alternative sources of renewable energy and fuels that can replace fossil fuels, but biomass is our only low carbon source of plastic, aviation and marine fuel. This is where our efforts should be focussed.

In the mean time these developing markets will benefit from the growth of more mature sectors like road transport biofuels and bioenergy, including logistical and technology developments such as the ability to process lignocellulosic feedstocks like wood.

But we urgently need more stable and harmonised policies, backed up by bold decision making to support the development of low carbon technologies,

particualry those with limited renewable alternatives.

Conclusion: Be prepared

Businesses are increasingly being judged on their ability to manage supply chains sustainably.

As the transition to a low carbon economy gathers speed, businesses need to be proactive rather than reactive to the changing marketplace, as the decisions they make now will determine their success in the future.

To ensure we minimise the impact of bioenergy, biofuels and bio-based products on land use and food production we must:

• Use our existing resources better by driving innovation

• Use more non-food feedstocks like wastes, agricultural residues, algae and lignocellulosic crops

• Push policies towards sectors with limited alternatives

General guiding principles for the future use of biomass, larger words have greater priority for biomass use.

Background Information

1. USDA (2011) ‘Brazil’s Ethanol Industry: Looking Forward’ - www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/BIO02/BIO02.pdf

2. BP (2011) ‘Statistical Review’ - www.bp.com/statisticalreview

3. Tangible Branding (2011) ‘Market Research’ - www.tangiblebranding.com

4. FAO & OECD (2011) ‘Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020’ - www.agri-outlook.org

5. Committee on Climate Change (2011) ‘Bioenergy Review’ - www.theccc.org.uk/reports/bioenergy-review

6. UKERC (2011) ‘Energy from biomass: the size of the global resource’ - www.ukerc.ac.uk/support/tiki-download_file.php?fileId=2098

7. NNFCC (2009) ‘Review of Technologies for Gasification of Biomass and Wastes, NNFCC 09-008’ - www.nnfcc.co.uk/tools/review-of-technologies-for-gasification-of-biomass-and-wastes-nnfcc-09-008

8. NNFCC (2010) ‘GHG Benefits from Use of Vegetable Oils for Electricity, Heat, Transport and Industrial Purposes, NNFCC 10-016’ - www.nnfcc.co.uk/tools/ghg-benefits-from-use-of-vegetable-oils-for-electricity-heat-transport-and-industrial-purposes-nnfcc-10-016

Image courtesy of Drax.

NNFCC is a leading international consultancy with expertise on the conversion of biomass to bioenergy, biofuels and bio-based products.

NNFCCBiocentreYork Science ParkInnovation WayYorkYO10 5DGUnited Kingdom

Telephone: +44 (0)1904 435182Email: enquiries@nnfcc.co.ukWebsite: www.nnfcc.com