the chesapeake bay program’s scenario builder
DESCRIPTION
The Chesapeake Bay Program’s Scenario Builder. Gary Shenk CCMP workshop 5/11/2010. Chesapeake Bay Program Decision Support System. Land Use Change Model. Criteria Assessment Procedures. Bay Model. Watershed Model. Management Actions. Scenario Builder. Airshed Model. Effects. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The Chesapeake Bay Program’s Scenario Builder
Gary ShenkCCMP workshop 5/11/2010
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Chesapeake Bay ProgramDecision Support System
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Percent of Space
Per
cent
of T
ime
CFD Curve
Area of Criteria Exceedence
Area of AllowableCriteria
Exceedence
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Percent of Space
Per
cent
of T
ime
CFD Curve
Area of Criteria Exceedence
Area of AllowableCriteria
Exceedence
Management Actions
Watershed Model
Bay Model
CriteriaAssessmentProcedures
Effects
Allocations
Airshed Model
Land UseChange Model
ScenarioBuilder
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Snapshot:
Land Use AcreageBMPsFertilizerManureAtmospheric DepositionPoint SourcesSeptic Loads
Hourly Values:
RainfallSnowfallTemperatureEvapotranspirationWindSolar RadiationDewpointCloud Cover
“Average AnnualFlow-Adjusted Loads”
Quick Overview of Watershed Model ScenariosHourly output is summed over 10 years of hydrology to compare against other management scenarios
HSPF 1991-2000
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Atmosphere FertilizerManure
Runoff
Load reductions attributed to upland benefit employing
“efficiencies”• Efficiencies can vary by hydro-
geomorphic region
Non-Point Source Practices and ProgramsPractices With Nutrient and Sediment Reduction Efficiencies
25 land uses
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Scenario Builder
Software that simulates land use and management for
input to the Phase 5 Chesapeake Bay Watershed
Model
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Number of segment / land-use / years in watershed model
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year of completion
oper
atio
ns
Watershed Model History
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Management questions and model have been both increasing exponentially in complexity.
Year Segs Years Land Uses Purpose1982 64 2 5 Split point source and nonpoint source1985 64 2 5 Establish 40% goal 1992 64 4 8 Define 40% by basins 1994 89 8 9 Simulate nutrient cycle in more detail 1997 89 8 9 Re-evaluate and redefine 40% by major basin 2000 94 11 9 Set new goals and distribute by major subbasin 2008 1000 22 25 TMDL
Watershed Model History
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Number of Scenarios
• Mid 1980s – 0• Early 1990s – fewer than 10• Late 1990s – 37• Early 2000s – 400-500• 2010 model – about 100 pre-finalization
– 1000s?
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Scenario Generation History• 1982 – no scenarios• 1985 - 1994 – Aquaterra and SAIC
– simple scenarios through hand calculation and spreadsheets
– modified watershed model by hand
• 1995 – 2009 – series of increasingly interconnected spreadsheets– Automated Modification of watershed model
• 2010– Scenario Builder
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VolatilizationPasture
Dairy
Uncollected
Collected
Spring/FallApplication
Daily Application
Crop
Enclosure
BarnyardVolatilization
Storage
VolatilizationVolatilization
Volatilization
RunoffRunoff Runoff
SwineLayersBroilersTurkeysHorses
Beef
Daily Application
Non-Point Source Practices and ProgramsPractices that Alter Nutrient Applications to Agriculture Land
PhytasePrecision Feeding/Forage
Management Manure Transport
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Watershed Wide Crops by Acreage
21.5%
9.1%
14.8%
11.7%
25.7%
11.9%
1.8%
1.2%0.3%
0.8%
0.3%
0.9%
2.4%
Corn & Sorghum (Grain) Corn & Sorghum (Silage) Soybeans Small Grains
Other Hay Alfalfa Vegetables Harvested Berry & Orchard
Potatoes Tobacco Cotton Peanuts
Approximately 100 crop types and 10 growing regions with different parameters for each
Tracking yields and acreages on a county basis
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Outputs to Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model
• BMPs– Descriptions– Acres– Pounds nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment reduced
• Land uses• Manure (nutrient species/land use/month)• Septic system loads• Vegetative Cover • Fertilizer application• Legumes (pounds nitrogen)• Maximum crop uptake• Uptake curve (monthly nutrient uptake by land use)
Scenario Builder Versions
• 1 Land use and Nutrient Inputs• 2 BMPs, point source, septic• 3 NEIEN implementation• 4 Summarized reports • 5 Web interface
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Scenario Builder Planned Enhancements• Version 2.2a: System Maintenance and Documentation Release
– System documentation updated • Version 2.3: Septic and Atmospheric Deposition
– Add these are two new sub-systems • Version 2.4: BMP Descriptions and Other BMP Files
– Accessory BMP files that the model needs to process BMP data from Scenario Builder.
– Input the Phase 5.3 watershed model outputs • Version 2.5: Improve Animal Waste Management System BMPs and Dead
Birds– Both are being addressed by BMPs now—will be addressed more accurately
• Version 2.6: Wastewater Sub System – Will automate input data generation over 3,000 facilities
• Version 3: NEIEN Exchange– Conversion of NEIEN BMP exchange data into Scenario Builder formats.
• Version 4: Data Products– Developing reports or other data products that will stream-line the process for
states, locals and other partners/stakeholders to request information• Version 5: User Interface
– Evolution of version 2.2 User Interface for running “what if” scenarios
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Co-Developers of the Chesapeake Bay Program’s Scenario Builder
DevelopersEPA
U of MDTreCom
USGSNRCSCRC
VaTech
Chesapeake Bay Program
Advisors and data suppliersNY, PA, MD, DE, VA, WV, DC