the cod day - science
DESCRIPTION
The Cod Day - Science. Coby Needle, Nick Bailey, Rui Catarino, Steven Holmes Marine Laboratory Aberdeen. Outline. North Sea cod West of Scotland cod Future developments. WoS cod – stock area. WoS cod – official landings. WoS cod – catches. 2011 Removals = 6.36 kt - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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The Cod DayMarine Laboratory, Aberdeen, 2 October 2012
The Cod Day - Science
Coby Needle, Nick Bailey, Rui Catarino, Steven Holmes
Marine Laboratory
Aberdeen
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Outline
• North Sea cod• West of Scotland cod• Future developments
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WoS cod – stock area
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WoS cod – official landings
UK50%
France27%
Ireland19%
Norway4%
Others0%
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WoS cod – catches
2011 Removals = 6.36 ktLandings = 0.52 kt (8%), discards = 5.84 kt (92%)
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WoS cod – surveys
• Available surveys:– ScoGFS-WIBTS-Q1: 1985–2010
• Became UKSGFS-WIBTS-Q1 in 2011– ScoGFS-WIBTS-Q4: 1996-2009
• Became UKSGFS-WIBTS-Q4 in 2011– IGFS-WIBTS-Q4
• Only ScoGFS-WIBTS-Q1 used in assessment
• 2013 assessment: Too soon to use UKSGFS (& stock subject to 1.5% bycatch rule).
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WoS cod – surveys
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WoS cod – surveys
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WoS cod – surveysQ4 2010 Q4 2011
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WoS cod – Int. effort
TR1 = Trawl gear with mesh ≥ 100mm
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WoS cod – Int. effort
TR2 = Trawl gear with mesh ≥ 70mm & < 100mm
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WoS cod – Int. effort
LL = Long Lines
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WoS cod – Int. effort
GN = Gill nets & entangling nets
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Reg. gear 2011 % Av. 09-11 %
TR1 92.8% 95%TR2 6.98% 5%GN1 0.22% V small %Others V small % V small %
WoS cod – Int. cod catch
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WoS – TR1 landings
COD
ANGLER
HADDOCK
SAITHE
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WoS – TR1 & TR2 landings
WHITING
NEPHROPS
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WoS cod – observer coverage 2011
Fleet Declared landings (tonnes)
Number of trips sampled
Discard weight (tonnes)
Discard rate
All 110 15 1572 93.5%
TR1 (whitefish)
102 8 1439 93.4%
TR2 (Nephrops)
8 7 133 94.3%
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WoS cod – port sampling coverage 2011
Demersal trips landing cod
614
Demersal trips landing cod – that were sampled
12
% of trips sampled 2%No. fish measured 158No. otoliths taken (for ageing)
123
CV on total numbers 0.14
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WoS cod – mean weight-at-age in catches
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WoS cod – natural mortality estimates
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Year
M
Age 1Age 2Age 3Age 4Age 5Age 6Age 7
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WoS cod – assessment
• Assessed using the TSA method– Includes ScoGFS-WIBTS-Q1 survey, landings &
discards– Landings 1995-2005 not used (suspected as
biased)– No survey data for 2011-2012.
• TSA - same basic approach as SAM model but developed in house (Rob Fryer)
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WoS cod – assessment
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WoS cod – assessment
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WoS cod – assessment
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5
SSB
in 1
000
t
Fishing Mortality (ages 2-5)
2011
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WoS cod mortality – lnds vs dis
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WoS cod – assessment
0
5
10
15
20
25
catch
0
1
2
3
4
5
6discards
0
5
10
15
20
25
landings
0.0
0.5
1.0
19801990 2000 2010
mean F (ages 2-5)
0
20
40
60
1980199020002010
recruitment
0
10
20
30
40
1980199020002010
SSB
0
5
10
15
20
25
catch
0
1
2
3
4
5
6discards
0
5
10
15
20
25
landings
0.0
0.5
1.0
1980199020002010
mean F (ages 2-5)
0
20
40
60
198019902000 2010
recruitment
0
10
20
30
40
1980199020002010
SSB
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WoS cod – area misreporting
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
-100
010
020
030
040
050
0
Year
Add
ition
to o
ffici
al V
Ia la
ndin
gs (t
onne
s)
under-reportingmis-reportingnet difference
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WoS cod – Management plan
• Unlike N Sea F reduction only related to previous year
• Reduction depends on prediction of SSB at start of TAC year:– 25% reduction in F if SSB < Blim– 15% reduction in F if Blim < SSB < Bpa– Min(10% reduction in F or F=0.4) if SSB > Bpa
• But 20% limit to changes in TAC• But But 25% TAC reduction if stock
unhealthy yet ‘data poor’ • Also – ICES has never accepted
management plan as precautionary
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WoS cod – Advice
• MSY approach– MSY framework: TAC = 30 t– MSY transition: TAC = 270 t
• But because SSB << Blim advice was for zero catch