the coffee rust crisis in central america ja cirad
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DAY 3 Learning from the Rust CrisisTRANSCRIPT
The coffee rust crisis in Central America Impacts on production and some hypotheses on
factors that triggered the epidemic
J.Avelino
Jacques Avelino, CIRAD / IICA-PROMECAFE / CATIE
Costa Rica, February 2013 El Salvador, April 2013
J. Avelino J. Avelino
2011/2012
exports
(bags of 46 kg of
green beans)
Loss
State of
emergency
% Bags of 46 kg
of green beans
Honduras 7 100 000 31 % * 2 190 000 Yes
Guatemala 4 850 000 15 % * 730 000 Yes
Costa Rica 2 008 000 5 % ** 100 000 Yes
El Salvador 1 500 000 23 % ** 440 000 No
Nicaragua 2 000 000 3% ** 59 000 No
Data obtained within the framework of the project « coffee rust control in Mesoamerica » funded by Norway and
managed by CATIE (Dr. Elías de Melo)
* Estimated reduction of the 2012-2013 harvest , attributed to rust, with respect to 2011-2012 harvest
** With respect to initial 2012/2013 harvest estimates
J.Avelino
Losses reported by the coffee institutes for
the 2012-2013 harvest in Central America
According to PROMECAFE, rust caused a 20 % production loss in the
2012/2013 harvest equivalent to $ M 500, and 375 000 people lost their job
The 2012-2013 outbreak will cause losses
over several years
Severe defoliation caused by
coffee rust
(February 2013, Costa Rica)
Stumping to rejuvenate coffee trees
after the outbreak
(February 2013, Costa Rica)
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These trees will produce normally in 2015-2016
If they don’t die : old coffee trees do not respond well to the practice
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Total
planted
area (ha)
Severe
pruning
needed
(ha)
Renovation
needed
(ha)
Minimum production
decrease in the 2013-
2014 harvest due the
2012-2013 outbreak
Honduras 280 000 70 000 22 000 33 %
Guatemala 276 500 31 000 6 700 14 %
Costa Rica 93 800 14 600 5 100 21 %
El Salvador 108 000 13 000 1 700 14 %
Nicaragua 180 000 27 000 ? 15 %
* Data obtained within the framework of the project « coffee rust control in Mesoamerica » funded by Norway and
managed by CATIE (Dr Elías de Melo)
J.Avelino
Areas requiring renovation or severe
pruning (stumping mainly) according to
coffee institutes
20 % of the Central American coffee area will not produce at all this year
and the next one
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Coffee rust threatens again
Special climatic conditions (very
rainy) which were propitious to
fungus reproduction
Low coffee prices which caused a
decrease of the number of
fungicide and fertilizer applications
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40 % of incidence on average in Jinotega and Matagalpa at
the end of 1995 and beginning of 1996
Severe defoliations and death of branches were observed
J. Avelino, 1996
Severe outbreak of coffee rust in Nicaragua,
in 1995-1996
Special climatic conditions (very rainy) which were propitious to
fungus reproduction
+ 20 000 ha of coffee were producing for the first time
In both cases the situation came back to normal in the
next year
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The 2012-2013 outbreak seems different
• Almost continental scale (the whole Central
America + Mexico + Peru)
• Very intense outbreak (affecting even young
and low yielding plants)
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Low yielding coffee tree High yielding coffee tree
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Pathogen Host
Environment
Producer’s actions: Socio-economic aspects
Crop Management Resistance
Physiology
Morphology
Architecture
Virulence
Agressiveness
Biology
Climate
Soil
Topography
Landscape
Natural enemies The disease tetrahedron
(Zadoks and Schein, 1979)
What happened in Central America ?
Our main hypotheses
What happened in Central America ?
Our main hypotheses: Climate
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Decrease
of rainfall
Increase of
rust
The rainy season, in the second half of the year, was interspersed with
dry periods (less rains),
with an increase of temperatures (especially minimum temperatures)
COSTA RICA, ICAFE HONDURAS, IHCAFE
J.Avelino
Outbreak intensity was
heterogenous within the country,
because of climate differences
between regions
What happened in Central America ?
Our main hypotheses: Management
But also heterogeneity in a single
coffee area, suggesting more local
effects, probably in relation with
plant characteristics (fruit load,
plant age) and management
(particularly shade, fertilizer and
fungicide applications)
GUATEMALA
ANACAFE
J.Avelino
Drier in the second half of
of the year (before and
during the harvest period;
during the supposed rainy
season !)
Increase of
temperatures
Latent
period
shortened
High altitude
stands
behaved as
lower altitude
plantations
Decrease of coffee
prices (-30% in 1 year)
Low rainfall,
enough for
germination, and
no spore washing;
free water from
dew could help;
dispersal is done
by harvesters and
wind
Fertilizer inputs
reduced, and
fertilizer applications
were not effective
(reduced growth of
coffee trees)
No preventive control;
curative control was
applied too late, when
incidences were very high
What happened in Central America ?
Our main hypotheses: Climate and Management
Shade buffers
temperatures
Shade intercepts dew
Shade retains soil moisture
and reduces coffee tree
stress
What happened in Central America ?
Our main hypotheses: Climate and Management
Drier in the second half of the year
(before and during the harvest
period; during the supposed rainy
season !)
Increase of
temperatures
Latent
period
shortened
High altitude
stands
behaved as
lower altitude
plantations
Low rainfall,
enough for
germination and
no spore washing;
free water from
dew could help;
dispersal is done
by harvesters and
wind
J.Avelino
Shade part of the solution ?
– Colombia, 2008-2011
– El Salvador, Guatemala reported local outbreaks in 2010 and
2011 (with high altitude plots severely affected in Guatemala: >
1500 m of altitude)
– Explosion in 2012: Central America + Mexico
– Peru, 2013
What happened in Central America ?
Our main hypotheses: New strains of Hemileia ?
There was a kind of gradual expansion of the outbreak
Why this gradual expansion ?
Do we have new strains more agressive ?
Or new strains adapted to different climatic conditions (high
altitudes) ?
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What happened in Central America ?
Our main hypotheses: New strains of Hemileia ?
New races have been detected in Costa Rica by
ICAFE-CIFC (only race II before) :
XXXVI (v 2,4,5,8) ?
XXIV (v 2,4,5)
These new races can be the consequence of the epidemic and not the
cause:
With a given rate of mutation, there are more mutants when the
population of the pathogen is abundant (McDonald, 2002).
The probability to have new races is then higher after a severe
outbreak. With no selection pressure by the host plant (by resistant
gentoypes), these races, hopefully, will disappear.
J.Avelino
What happened in Central America ?
Our main hypotheses:
Climate was the trigger
Disease control and fertilizer applications were
deficient
The issue of new strains needs to be studied
The current situation seems different:
Long dry season in 2013 (loss of inoculum; delayed epidemic)
Fungicides have been applied (product delivery, training, campaigns)
Low yield is expected due to the last coffee rust outbreak (lower
physiological susceptibility)