the communities of the future future major trends shaping...

7/5/2012

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Communities of the Future Major Trends Shaping

Where And How We Will

Live, Work, And Play

As Presented by John Martin

The

Future

Generational

Lens

Cultural &

Societal

Trends

Demographic

Trends

1909-28 1929-45 1946-64 1965-82 1983-01

58,000,000

44,000,000

76,000,000

62,000,000

80,000,000

Greatest Silent Boomer Gen X Millennial

94 75 57 39 20

Born in the U.S.A Today’s Agenda

Forces Reshaping The Future of Virginia’s Cities

1

What To Do Next

2

3

Future Forward Assumptions

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Quality

of Life

67%

65%

64%

47%

46%

46%

42%

35%

17%

21%

23%

24%

35%

30%

29%

27%

31%

37%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Quality education at all levels

Safety & security of citizens

Access to quality medical care

Trained, educated, adaptable workforce

Support & services for the olderpopulation

Protection of the environment

Affordable housing

Transportation system

Entertainment, culture & recreation

Residents’ Importance

Overall Importance To Community

Tier 1

Q4. The following is a list of values or expectations that could guide long-term planning for your community.

For each one, please rate how important you believe it should be in future planning efforts for your

community.

78%

70%

67%

62%

54%

45%

38%

41%

36%

20%

24%

27%

32%

37%

43%

41%

36%

38%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Quality education at all levels

Safety & security of citizens

Trained, educated, adaptable workforce

Access to quality medical care

Transportation system

Affordable housing

Entertainment, culture & recreation


Support & services for the older population

Business Leaders

Overall Importance To Community

Q4. The following is a list of values or expectations that could guide long-term planning for your community.

For each one, please rate how important you believe it should be in future planning efforts for your

community.

Tier 1

We Assume These

Core Needs/Desires

Will Drive

Our Communities

For the Next

20-30 Years

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But Our Core Needs Will Be

Satisfied By A New Reality

Quality of education

Healthcare

Transportation

Workforce

Access to healthcare

Affordable housing

Safety and security of citizens

Entertainment , cultural, and

recreational


Senior Services

Trends 2030

Today’s Agenda


1

What To Do Next

2

3

Future Forward Assumptions

Shift #1

Increasing

Population

U.S Population

307 Million

Source: U. S. Census Reports

Today

405 Million

2050

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U.S Population

307 Million

Source: U. S. Census Reports

Today

405 Million

2050 22% Population Growth

2010-2030

8.0 M

2010

8.9 M

2020

9.8 M

2030

Virginia’s Total Population Growth

22%

Source: Virginia Employment Commission,

Copyright by the Creative Commons Copyright

80% of Virginia’s

population

growth will be

in the Crescent

7 in 10 Virginians now live in the GC

Your Future

A Growing

Resident

Base. Two

States of

Virginia

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Your Future

More People.

Additional

Housing Needs.

Shift #2

Shifting Population

Footprint

RVA Housing Demand by 2030

2010 housing stock 421,227*

2030 additional

housing units needed 112,842**

5,642 per year needed for 20 years

*2010 U.S. Census

** Extrapolated from 2010 to 2030

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Shift to

Urban

Living

Current Trend Long-term Trend

Shift to

Urban

Villages

“Urban Villages” of the Future - Edge Cities ?

The dark blue

areas show the

highest growth,

where the light

yellow areas

represent no

growth or an actual

decrease in

population.

Sources: US

Census Bureau and

Synergos

Technologies, Inc.

Kids/College

Student

Marriage

Career

First House

Children at Home

Second House

Retire

20 30 40 50 60 70

GI & Silent Generations lived linear lives

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Life Stages of Boomers

45 50 55 60 65

Grandparent

Entrepreneur

Empty Nester

Single Again

Parent

Retired

Caregiver

Even with

a debilitating

illness,

9 in 10 Boomers want to

age in community

Source: 2010 ODP Study


Active

Grand-

parenting

Active

Work

past 65

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Active

Legacy

Building

Civic Engagement

Volunteering

“Home

for Life”

…

Stay In

Control

Millennials 1983-2001

11-29

88% Gen Ys want to be

in an urban setting “

Source: RCLCO

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Younger

Generations

“Work To Live”

……

9-5 Work

Schedules

Digital

Natives

Source: 2008 ComScore Online Automobile Insurance Report.

Walkable

Urban

Transit-

oriented

50%

1978

16 75%

1978

17 86%

1978

18

31% 49%

68%

2008 2008 2008

% of U.S Pop With Driver’s License

Source: USDOT

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Question: How important to you is it to have your own vehicle?

63% 63%

Gen Y

75%

Boomers Gen X

Rate “5”

Very

important

Rate “4”

40%

23%

46%

17%

60%

15%

Question: How difficult would it be to manage and conduct

your daily activities without a vehicle?

46% 59%

Gen Y

67%

Boomers Gen X

Rate “5”

Very

Difficult

Rate “4”

25%

21%

36%

23%

44%

23%

An

Integrated

System

Car Free

Living

Possible

Your Future

Urban Areas

Growing with

Young & Old

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Shift #3

Graying

of Virginia

In the U.S.

the population

over age 65

will grow from

40 million today to

72 million by 2031


2000

U.S. Population 65+

Source: US Census

11%

2030

19%

2020

16%

2010

13%

2040

20%

2000

Virginia’s Population 65+

11%

2030

19%

2020

16%

2010

13%

Source: US Census

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Aging

Touches

Every

Aspect of

Service

Quality of education

Healthcare

Transportation

Workforce

Access to healthcare

Affordable housing

Safety and security of

citizens

Entertainment, cultural,

and recreational

Senior Services

Age In Place

1 Home Builders

Are Getting Age Ready

2 New In-Home Services


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3 Hospitals


4 Pharmacies


5 Car Companies

Are Getting Age

Ready

6 Retailers


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Your Future

Older

Resident

Base

Your Future

Older

Employee

Base

Shift #4

Increasingly

Diverse

Population

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Black or African American

1,628,716

2 ,069,710

Asian

423,144

782,629

Hispanic

530,708

995,545

American Indian / Alaska Native

23,179

22,626

2010

2030

2010

2030

2010

2030

+27%

+85%

+88%

21% of 2030 pop.

10% of 2030 pop.

8% of 2030 pop.

Virginia’s Non-White Population 2010-2030

2010

2030 -2%

<1% of 2030 pop.

2030 The Minority Will Become

the Majority of Children (18 & Under)

Source: U.S. Census

2047 The Minority Will

Become the Majority

Source: U.S. Census

1909-28 1929-45 1946-64 1965-82 1983-01

10,000,000

28,000,000

76,000,000 75,000,000

81,000,000

Greatest Silent Boomer Gen X Millennial

94 75 57 39 20

Current U.S.

Census Data

7/5/2012

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Generations Matter

61% 19% Gen Y 4% 13%

White Hispanic Asian Black

62% 18% 6% 12%

73% 10% 4% 11%

80% 7% 4% 8%

Gen X

Boomers

Silent

Your Future

Greater

Cultural

Divide

56% of Young People

(Under 18)

Today’s Generational Culture Gap

24 Points

80% of Seniors

Whites represent . . .

Politics of The Issue

Resistant to taxes

and public spending

beyond

transportation

Minority

Population Senior

Population Tends to view

government

education, health, and

social-welfare

programs as helpful

support for their

children

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Politics of The Issue

62% Want Big

Government

Minority

Population

Senior

Population

62% Don’t Want

Big

Government

2030 Population

20% US Population

Minority

Youth

Senior

Population

20% US Population

Your Future

Appreciation

of A Shared

Destiny Will Be

Critical To

Support the Youth

Your Future

Organizing Your

Boomer Volunteer

Army To Help

With Your School

System

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Shift #5

Greening Of Society

Green is

Mainstream:

80%

think or act

“Green” Copyright by the Creative Commons Copyright

1 in 3 would be more inclined

to work for a “green” company.

6 in 10 think their current employer should be doing

more to be environmentally responsible.

Your Future

Leverage

Sustainability

Through

Partnerships

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Today’s Agenda


1

What To Do Next

2

3

Future Forward Assumptions Change Is Constant

You Don’t Need A

30 Year Plan.

You Need Future Forward

Insights To Advance The

Conversation.

www.richmondfuture.org

Key Future Drivers What are the key

drivers that will make

Richmond a world class

community in 2030?

7/5/2012

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What are the top key drivers that will make Richmond a world class community in 2030?

How can the Richmond area capitalize on its status as Virginia’s state capital?

How can innovation in health care drive economic development in the region?

How can the Richmond area’s educational institutions, at all levels, establish effective STEM programs

that will give the region a competitive advantage in developing and retaining a globally competitive

workforce?

How can the Richmond area capitalize on the logistics innovations occurring in Hampton Roads, at

Fort Lee and with companies such as CarMax and MeadWestvaco?

How can Richmond’s diverse arts and cultural organizations contribute even more effectively to the

quality of life and appeal of the region?

How can philanthropy in the region be even more effective in addressing the factors that limit the

opportunities of individuals and communities?

How can the entire region take advantage of the planned growth of Fort Lee?

How can history become a driver of tourism in the area and link Richmond to Charlottesville and

Williamsburg?

What are the major enhancements, including high speed rail and the expansion of the ports of Hampton

Roads, which can be made to the transportation system in central Virginia?

What are the businesses in the next 20 years that will create sustainable, high paying jobs that will

make our region globally competitive? And what should we be doing to grasp this future?

Thank You

John Martin [email protected]

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