the connection between cosmic rays, clouds and climate€¦ · – presentation of the hypothesis...
TRANSCRIPT
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The connection between cosmic rays, clouds and climate
Henrik Svensmark, Jacob Svensmark*,DTU Space
*Dark Cosmology Centre, University of Copenhagen
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The connection between cosmic rays, clouds and climate
1. The cosmoclimatological hypothesis– Origin of cosmic rays – Linking cosmic rays to climate– Presentation of the hypothesis
2. The final piece of the puzzle– The microphysical mechanism, theoretically
and experimentally– How relevant is cosmic rays for climate in the
real atmosphere?3. Conclusion
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Cosmic Rays
Solar magnetic field
Super Nova Remnant Acceleration of cosmic rays
Solar system
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20 km
0 km
Incoming proton of 100 GeV
ICE
Cosmic rays in the atmosphere
Ionizes the atmosphere
Produces new cosmogenic isotopes,e.g. 14C, 26Al, 10Be
+-+
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Strong coherence between solar variability and the monsoon in Omanbetween 9 and 6 kyr ago
The formation of stalagmites in northern Oman has recorded past northwardshifts of the intertropical convergence zone3, whose northward migration stops near the southern shoreline of Arabia in thepresent climate
U. Neff et al., Nature 411, 290 - 293 (2001)
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How can STARS influence Climate?
Net effect of clouds is to cool the Earth by about 30 W/m2
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Svensmark & Friis-Christensen, JASTP 1997, Svensmark, PRL 1998, Marsh & Svensmark, PRL, 2000. (update 2005)
Link between Low Cloud Cover and Galactic Cosmic Rays?Solar cycle variationISCCP IR Low cloud data
Calibration?
10
0
-10
-20
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If the link is between cosmic rays and clouds, what would the mechanism be?
Empirical evidence for a relation between cosmic rays and climate
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Precurser to clouds: Aerosols
1-2 nm stable aerosols Cloud Condensation Nuclei > 50 nm
CLOUD
Cosmic Ray Ionization
Growth
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Aerosols and microphysics of cloudsSatellite observations of ship tracks
Visible: 0.9 mm
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Experimental challenges
1-2 nm stable aerosols
2004 - 2007
0 10 20 30 40 50 60q (cm-3 s-1)
H2SO4 concentration ~ 2*108 (cm-3)
O3 ~ 25 ppbSO2 ~ 300 pptRH ~ 35%
Svensmark et al. Proc. R. Soc. A (2007) 463, 385–396
+ +- - ?
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So experimentally there is good evidence for the generation of ultrafine aerosols by ions ~ 1-3 nm
• An important remaining question: Will the small aerosols grow to Cloud
Condensation Nuclei (~ 50 nm) ?Nucleation
If not no impact on clouds.
CCN
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RESULTS FROM GEO-CHEM-TOMAS Global Circulation Model
(No ion-effects on growth)
Solar cycle response
1 10 100 Diameter [nm]
0.01
0.10
1.00
10.00 R
elat
ive
chan
ge [%
]
CCNN
UCL
EATI
ON
Expected range to explain observations
Data from: Snow-Kropla et al. 2011
Aero
sols
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Modeling says NOto an effect of ions on CCN
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Is the theory dead again?
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Addition of ”neutral” aerosols
Svensmark, Enghoff, Pepke PedersenPhysics Letters A 377 (2013) 2343–2347
CCN
More particles compeating for the same gas, therefore slowergrowth and larger losses, as also seen in model results.
TESTING THE GROWTH OF AEROSOLS EXPERIMENTALY
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Addition of aerosols using ionization
Svensmark, Enghoff, Pepke PedersenPhysics Letters A 377 (2013) 2343–2347
CCN
Contradicts the model results
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Coronal Mass EjectionsNatural experiments for testing the GCR-atmosphere link
Cosm
ic ra
ys [c
ount
s]
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AERONET, SSM/I, MODIS and ISCCP data for 5 strongest Forbush decreases
Aerosols CloudsLiquid water Liquid cloud fraction Low Clouds
Svensmark, Bondo, Svensmark, Geo. Phys. Lett., 2009Svensmark, Enghoff, Shaviv, Svensmark, J. Geophys Res., 2016
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Will cosmic rays help the growth
?
Experiments and observations suggest that aerosols grow to Cloud Condensation Nuclei
1-2 nm stable aerosols
CCN > 50 nm
CLOUD
GROWTH ?Mainly from H2SO4–H2O gas
�What mechanism
is responsible ?
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The Breakthrough 2015-2017Cosmic Rays
IonsAerosol
+mion
-
+-
+
+
-
Ions Aerosols
+
-
mion Maerosol Maerosol+mion
Maerosol
A so far ignored effect
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10% atm.1% exp.
~GRion/GR0 = G(n0, nion, m0, mion ,d) ~ 70 nionn0
Aerosol+
Ions
H2SO4-H2O ~ n0 ~ 106 molecules/cm3
Growth from neutral molecules
~ 103 ions/cm3
Growth from ions
Naively: GRion/GR0 ~ nion/ n0 ~ 10-3 ~ 0.1%
A few numbers
1. Coulomb forces2. Mirror forces3. Van der Waals forces4. Viscous forces
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2×107 3×107 4×107 5×107 6×107
H2SO4 [molecules/cm3]
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
∆T
[min
]
0.0-
0.8- 0.9- 1.0- 1.2- 1.3-
1.6-
∆ (d
r/dt) io
n [%
]
v1
v2
v3
v4
v5v6
v7
v8
v9
v10
v11
0.5-
∆q = 45 ion-pairs cm-3s-1
∆q = 186 ion-pairs cm-3s-1
After 3100 Hours of measurements we get:
Theory and experiments are consistent !
D G
row
th ra
te [
%]
Svensmark, Enghoff, Shaviv & Svensmark, Nature Communications 2017 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-02082-2
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0 100 200 300 Time [Hours]
60
20
10
5
3
0 1 2 3 4 Time [Hours]
Dia
met
er
[nm
]D
iam
eter
[n
m]
5
10
15
20
0.0
1.0
2.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
Profile 1
Profile 1
Profile 2
Profile 2b)
a)
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Droplet formation Cloud
Cosmic ray ionization
Nucleation
Summery of influence of cosmic rays on clouds
Growth
Important: The cosmic ray effect on growth is independent on how small particles are made.
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OCEAN
Atmospheric Relevance
Equator40 South 40 North
ITCZConvergent zone
HADLEY CIRCULATION
SunGCR GCR
SupernovaRemnant
Solar Wind Solar Wind
nH2So4~1-3.106 cm-3
Time of growth 5-7 days
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Summary
1. Cosmic rays assist the nucleation of small aerosols (1-1.5 nm)
2. Growth of aerosols to CCN assisted by cosmic ray ionization (Microphysical mechanism identified)
3. Explain results on Forbush decreases which result in variations in aerosols and clouds
4. Consistent with climate changes over the Holocene (last 10.000 years) 1-2 oC
5. Consistent with climate change over geological time scales 5-10 oC, e.g. last 500 million years. Note that these variations are independent of solar varibility.
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Climate and our galactic environment
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Carbon 13 and super nova activity
Svensmark, Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc., 423, 1234-1253 (2012)
-500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0Time [Myr]
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5SN
(t)/
SN(0
)
-2
0
2
4
6
8
δ13C
[p
er m
ill]
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Conclusion• The ions produced of cosmic rays, help the formation clusters to form and become stable
against evaporation. This process is called nucleation and results in small clusters (aerosols).
• The second role of ions is that they accelerate the growth of small aerosols into cloud condensation nuclei – seeds on which liquid water droplets form to make clouds. The more ions the more aerosols become cloud condensation nuclei.
IMPLICATIONS• When the Sun is lazy, magnetically speaking, there are more cosmic rays and more low clouds,
and the world is cooler. When the Sun is active fewer cosmic rays reach the Earth and, with fewer low clouds, the world warms up.
• Cooling’s and warmings of around 2 oC have occurred repeatedly over the past 10,000 years, as the Sun’s activity and the cosmic ray influx have varied.
• Over many millions of years, much larger variations of up to 10oC occur as the Sun and Earth, travelling through the Galaxy, visit regions with more or fewer exploding stars.
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Cosmic rays from MeteoritesTitanium 44 (Half-time 63 years)
Taricco et al. 2006
Stone meteorite
Eleanna Asvestari Ilya G. Usoskin Gennady A. Kovaltsov Mathew J. OwensNatalie A. Krivova Sara Rubinetti Carla TariccoMonthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Volume 467, Issue 2, 2017, 1608–1613,
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Sun
Sea Level Change Rate
Quantifying the Solar impact:
Shaviv 2008
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Sea
Surfa
ce Te
mpe
ratu
re
Sea
Leve
l Cha
nge
Total Solar Irradiance
Altim
etry
Dat
a
Ocea
n He
at C
onte
nt
Require an amplificationmechanism
Quantifying Solar Forcingover 11 years
Shaviv, 2008
CLOUDS
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Climate and our galactic environment pt. 2
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36
Cosmic rays and climate over the last 10.000 yearsBond et al, Science 294, 2001
Last 1000 yearsLittle Ice Age
• Little Ice Age is merely the most recent of a dozen such events during the last 10.000 years
Adapted from Kirkby
According to icecoresCO2 levels has beenconstant ~280 ppm
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[H2SO4] ~ 106 molecules/cm3
1 10 100
05
10
15
2025
4β
+-,
0/β
0,0 Ν
0/Ν
tot
a)
1 10 100d [nm]
1
10
100
1000
q
[ion-p
airs
/cm
3s]
1.0
2.0
5.0
5.0
10.0
10.0
20.0
20.0
30.0
30.0
50.0
1000
10000
nio
n
[ions/
cm3]
b)
G in theorychange in % of effective growth velocity
Important for the survivability of aerosols
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6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20d [nm]
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
ΔT
[min
]
6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20d [nm]
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
ΔT
[min
]
6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20d [nm]
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
ΔT
[min
]
mean= 1.23743
a) b) c)
Even the details in the theory fits the experiment