the current situation of renewable energy in latin america · 2018-12-12 · the current situation...
TRANSCRIPT
The Current Situation of Renewable Energy in
Latin America
Dr. Jorge M Huacuz
Renewable Energy Unit
Electrical Research Institute (IIE)
Cuernavaca, Mexico
E-Mail: [email protected]
The 6th International Conference on Integration of Renewable and Distributed Energy Resources
A glimpse at Latin America
Electricity Generation
in the World context (2011)
CO2 emissions in the World
context (2011)
General Information
Surface area 22’,222.000 km2
Number of countries 26
Total population 588 million
Urban population 79%
Official languages Spanish, Portuguese (Brazil)
Installed electrical capacity 336 GW
Electricity production (2011) 1,348 TWh
Energy use 1,292 kg o.e./capita
People w/o electricity 34 million
CO2 emissions 2.7 Tons/capita
The LATAM electricity matrix
Source: IDB Energy Innovation Center, Latin America Electricity Matrix 2011 (GWh/year) Source: Yepez-García R.A., et al, Meeting the Electricity Supply/Demand Balance in Latin America & the Caribbean. ESMAP, The World Bank, 2010
Industry 44.80%
Residential 25.30%
Commercial 20.30%
Other 4.70%
Export 4.50%
Transport 0.40%
Hydro 30.70%
Nat Gas 29.40%
Oil Derivatives 16.10%
Coal 8.50%
Biofuels & Waste 5.10%
Nuclear 3.90%
Geothermal 3.90%
Imports 2.10%
Wind & solar 0.22%
Crude Oil 0.08%
GWh/year
Challenge: increasing per capita electricity use
Electricity Production in GWh
Per capita electricity use and total
electricity production in Latin
America are still relatively low
Economic growth is pushing up
electricity demand but capacity
growth projections heavily rely on
natural gas and big hydro
LATAM generation capacity growth ICEPAC scenario
Source: Yepez-García R.A., et al, Meeting the Electricity Supply/Demand Balance in
Latin America & the Caribbean. ESMAP, The World Bank, 2010
Will renewables get a chance?
Capacity expansion for electricity generation in Latin America is
expected to grow about 600 GW by the year 2030
An investment close to 430 billion US$ will be required for
capacity expansion
Fossil energy use will reach 41% due to substantial reliance on
natural gas
However, the Latin American region could produce close to 80
PWh from renewable energy, corresponding to a peak capacity
of about 34 TWh
Investment capital is flowing in
US$ ~108
bn
Bright future for Photovoltaics
PHOTOVOLTAIC
PROJECT CATEGORY
LATIN
AMERICA
CENTRAL
AMERICA
Under construction 1 GW 22 MW
Expected within 5 years 9 GW 1.5 GW
Project portfolio 22 GW ---- Source: NPD Solarbuzz IHS Technology
COUNTRY PV PROJECTS
AMOUNT TOTAL GW
Brazil 400 10.2
Chile 64 5.2
Mexico 72 1.7 Source: 1 PV Magazine,
9/26 Latin American
countries highly attractive
for PV investment
World PV Attractiveness Chart
Regional PV Portfolios
Wind, on its way and growing
COUNTRY INSTALLED
CAPACITY
(MW)
Brazil 3,461
Mexico 1,917
Chile 335
Argentina 218
Costa Rica 148
Nicaragua 146
Honduras 102
Dominican
Republic
85
Uruguay 59
The
Caribbean
136
Others 74
Total 6,681
Fraction of World Total: 2.1%
Source: GWEC-Global Wind 2013 Report
COUNTRY
Ren
ewab
le e
ner
gy
targ
ets
ENABLING REGULATORY POLICIES FINANCIAL INCENTIVES AND PUBLIC
FINANCING
Fee
d-i
n T
arif
f/
Pre
miu
m p
aym
ent
Ele
ctri
c u
tilit
y q
uo
ta
ob
ligat
ion
s/R
PS
Net
met
erin
g
Trad
able
RE
C
Ten
der
ing
Hea
t o
blig
atio
n/
man
dat
e
Bio
fuel
s o
blig
atio
n/
man
dat
e
Cap
ital
su
bsi
dy
or
reb
ate
Inve
stm
ent
or
pro
du
ctio
n t
ax
cred
it
Tax
red
uct
ion
s
En
erg
y p
rod
uct
ion
pay
men
t
Pu
blic
inve
stm
ent,
loan
s o
r g
ran
ts
Argentina
Barbados
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
El Salvador
Guatemala
Grenada
Haiti
Honduras
Jamaica
Mexico
Nicaragua
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
St. Lucia
Trinidad and Tobago
Uruguay
Source: Own construction with data from REN21 Renewable Energy Global Status Report 2014
Key
Existing
Revised
New
Concluding Remarks
Given its abundant renewable energy resources, growing electricity demand and
evolving enabling legal and regulatory framework, Latin America may become a
major player in the arena of green power
However, for this to happen in the near future, a number barriers have to be
removed, including:
• The growing tendency of the regional electrical sectors to rely on natural
gas
• The concerns of the electric utilities regarding the variability and
intermittency of some renewable energy resources, notably wind and solar
• The set of subsidies applied to fossil fuels and to fossil-fueled electricity
generation
• The limited number of regional analysis for the valuation of renewable
energy as a motor for economic growth, job creation and development of
new forms of the electricity business
• The hesitation of government officials to move swiftly towards a green
economy
