the democrats the sprint that turned into a marathon
Post on 21-Dec-2015
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TRANSCRIPT
The Democrats
The Sprint that Turned into A Marathon
The Rules Matter Proportional Representation with a 15%
threshold
There is a prize for second place
Once you get a lead, it is hard to lose it
The Democratic Field Those who didn’t run
Those who ran, but had not chance
Those who mattered
Those Who Didn’t Run Gore
Kerry
Mark Warner
Evan Bayh
Those Who Had Little Chance Dennis Kucinich
Mike Gravel
Other Also Rans Chris Dodd
Bill Richardson
Joe Biden
The Top Tier- Those Who Mattered Hillary Clinton
Barack Obama
John Edwards
John Edwards
Hillary Clinton- Advantages Fundraising
Name Recognition
Experience
Hillary Clinton- Disadvantages Polarizing
Iraq Vote
The Clinton Years
Obama in 2004, A Rise from Obscurity Benefits from A
Primary and General Election Scandal
Steals the Show at the 2004 Democratic Convention
Obama’s Strengths and Weaknesses
Strengths
Weaknesses
THE INVISIBLE PRIMARY
The Early Money Game Clinton and Obama Forgo public money
Advantages of this for the candidates
Clinton’s Money Strategy Scare off Potential Rivals
Control the debate through spending
Use the expected early victory to reload
Why the Clinton Strategy fails Obama almost matches her 2007 Haul
How Obama does it
Delegate Strategy Obama’s Strategy
Clinton’s Strategy
Electoral Bases Obama• Younger voters• Upper-income
voters• Liberals and
Netroots• African-Americans
Clinton • Women• Lower & Middle
Class• Hispanics• Originally African-
Americans
Obama’s Message About Himself
About Clinton
Clinton’s Message About Herself
About Obama
December 31, 2007 Clinton Leads by 17% Nationwide
Obama on the Rise
Obama Leads in Some Iowa Polls
THE CAMPAIGN BEGINS(Finally)
The Iowa Results
Iowa- Why Obama Wins
Obama Outworks Clinton
Enthusiasm and Turnout were high
The Fallout The Losers Leave
This is a disaster for Clinton
The Rocky IV Analogy
New Hampshire Some said this was Clinton’s Last chance
Clinton Comes back hard on Obama
The New Hampshire Primary
The Results Clinton Regains Her Base
Richardson is done
Edward’s is now the 3rd of 3 candidates
S.C. and the Change in African-American support
Obama wins by 28 Points
Edward’s drops out
African American support tilts to Obama
The Clintons get angry
Nevada, Michigan and Florida Clinton wins Michigan and Florida, but no
one cares
Clinton wins Nevada, but loses the delegate count
Super Tuesday: The supposed Clinton Coronation.
Obama wins 13 states
Clinton Wins more votes but fewer Delegates
No knockout blow
Clinton Trails by 55 delegates at days end
The Clinton Camp in Disarray No Money
No Strategy
March 4th: Clinton’s last chance February Belongs to Obama
Texas and Ohio
American meets William Ayers
The 3:00 AM Ad
March 4th favors Clinton Popular vote wins in Both States
BUT Marginal delegate gains
The Final Months Jeremiah Wright and the Speech on Race
Proportional Representation
Clinton’s Last Grasp
Putting Superdelegates to the Test
Obama’s belief
Clinton’s Counter
The Last Day of Voting
How Obama Won Money
Knowing the Rules
How Obama Won- Caucuses Advantages
Results
The Advantage of the Long Campaign Scrutiny
Kept him in the News
Tested his leadership
Made the party enthusiastic