The development of Smes: Japan, Argentina, Italiathe impact of the current crisis on Latina American countries and prospects of the industrial policies

Patrizio Bianchi

Istituto Italo-Latino Americano

Roma, January 14- 15, 2010

Since the end of the 1990s, world economy is pushed by emerging and developing economies; since 2007

The global crisis that began in advanced economies has sent severe shocks around the world, posing a test to the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean. The good news is that during this decade the region has made itself more resilient to external shocks, by strengthening policy frameworks and reducing vulnerabilities in its public finances and financial systems. These preparations, the report shows, mean that countries are now more able to respond to the external crisis, many for the first time, with active policies to boost output and employment and protect the most vulnerable groups. This will help contain the damage from the global crisis and speed up the region’s recovery.

IMF Regional Economic Outlook, May 2009

IMF Regional Economic Outlook Sees Latin America Recovering More Quickly from the Global Crisis Relative to Advanced Countries

South American countries reacted well to the previous crisis and became more resilient to the current global crisis

Argentina reacted extremely well to the 2001 default but in 2008 collapsed

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Reasons of success

• Financial Default and • Devaluation after a long period of fixed

exchange rate• Increase of agricultural commodities prices• Mercosur development• Increase of productivity and innovation in the

agricoltural sector• Political stability and positive industrial policies

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Domestic demand improved during Kirchner presidency

                                                                                                                                                                      

                                                                                 

Banca mondiale, gli indici dei prezzi delle materie:

Copyright mongabay 2009

changes of soja prices impacted positively from sep 2001, and then from sep 2006, but negatively from may 2008.

Brasil has been very dynamic till 2008, less tham China and India, but more than industrialized countries

Brasil has been more stable than Argentina, and able to pull Argentinian economy

Industrial structure

• Comparando los Censos Economicos de 1994 y 2004 aparecen claros indicios de que a lo largo de estos anos de han desmantelado sectores y han desaparecido capacidades, se han acentuado una estructura primarizada y desarticulada, Kosakoff, Hacia un nuevo modelo industrial, 2007, p.69

• Between 1994 and 2004 industrial structure was damaged by the fixed rate of exchange

• Kosakoff says that in those years a substantial part of industrial structure was improving its innovation capacity

The current economic crisis

• The impact of default effects were reduced overtime, the Argentinian economy is more open to global economy

• Devaluation effects was reduced by the positive trends of exports and the weakening of dollar vs. euro

• prices of raw materials since may 2008 decreased

• Mercosur impact is linked to the trends of Brasil

The present political crisis

• The inadequacy of Cristina Fernàndez de Kirchner

• The reaction against the export tax on soja (from 11 mar 2008 to 17 jun 2008)

• Privatization of Air company and pension funds• Fragmentation of the peronist party

Kosakoff, Hacia un nuoevo modelo industrial, 2007

Promote the development of entrepreneurship and creation of new businesses

Stimulate the creation of capital markets do not exist

Recovery accumulated social capitalPromote actions to achieve greater spillsA tax reform and improvement of the

administrationGrant tax incentives for local investment in

research and development