the device that used to be your phone
TRANSCRIPT
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what you know…
what you don’t know…
where are we going?
what should we be asking?
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transportdead or alive?
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transport is dead, right?
what you know…
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$1 trillion spent on telecom transport last year
…so it’s not quite dead, yet
• mobile transport growing 15% in 2007 to $650B
• wireline transport flat in 2007 at $550B
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working with incumbent carriers:• do you have a choice? • if so, when do you want to be carrier friendly?
how do new carriers change the rules?
what’s nextwhat’s next in transport: in transport:
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MoIP: Mobile over IP
different approaches: existing voice networks or all IP?
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• do you want a desk phone and a cell phone?(many younger people have already made the choice)
what’s nextwhat’s next in transport: in transport:
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a sample service for small businesses:
•professional image + more productivity = revenue•one simpler, cheaper landline + mobile phone
• a proven model: tens of thousands of paid business customers … but not paying for transport
SoIP: Services over IP
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• what if transport revenue didn’t “die” but GREW?
• …and was paid for by businesses instead of consumers?
what’s nextwhat’s next in transport: in transport:
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• Has this happened before? • Toll Free / 800 business• Oh, and Google
business-sponsored calling
$2+ / lead
Sure.
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speaking of advertising
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ads over ip are big business
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• broadcast TV is free• tv over IP is expensive (iTunes) or illegal (BitTorrent)• sounds like we’re missing an ad model…
what can IP video advertising learn from the web?
where else are we missing an ad model?
what’s nextwhat’s next in advertising: in advertising:
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• right ad, right place, right time > free (legal) video
ad-supported tv – with ip
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• anyone can produce and post ads, best ads rise to the top • anyone can then customize those ads
user generated advertising?
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US Media Usage to Ad Spending Ratios
untapped ad potential on mobile?untapped ad potential on mobile?
1000x+
4.7x
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0x
Newsp
aper
s +
Mag
azin
es
Tota
l TV
Radio
Inte
rnet
Mob
ile
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0
10
20
30
40
50
SMS Messages SMS Revenue
0
10
20
30
40
50
Web Queries Online Ad Revenue
0
10
20
30
40
50
Web Queries Online Ad Revenue
0
10
20
30
40
50
SMS Messages SMS Revenue
beyond ads: $50b on SMS
Online Search / Advertising
(monthly - in billions)
(‘06 - billions of $)
(monthly - in billions)
(‘06 - billions of $)
Mobile SMS
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viral mobile apps + mobile monetization = $100b opportunity
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1,000 micro-content channels + mobile monetization = opportunity
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hardware & software: inflection points
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• where does hardware hold back what is possible?
• what kind of new businesses can be enabled?
inflection points:inflection points:
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youtube was a warm up act 500+ million camera phones
Then Now
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a problem…
• An average SMS is 140 bytes and costs 10 cents, or $750/MB
• Video recording of a rock concert is 5 gigabytes and would cost $3.85M to upload at the same price
…an opportunity
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• yes, but maybe not the wireless you think
is wireless the answer?
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one step further
100 GB on your cell phone?
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100 GB = power drain!
• battery life is the biggest obstacle to these technologies• batteries coming soon that recharge 80%+ in one minute! • expect more innovation here…
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you think you knowmobile tv
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you think you know the big screen
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• your mobile device as a full-fledged TV!• spatial photonics, texas instruments, microvision…
the new screen
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software freed from hardwaresoftware freed from hardware
Moka5 allows your entire PC to be carried on your phone…or your “phone on your phone” (entire address book…)
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are weaccelerating or decelerating?
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can you understand me now?
real-time translation of speech is being developed
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telemedicine
• your cell phone could be as a diagnostic tool• care providers in rural areas could use a “Doc In a Phone”
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a different kind of a different kind of cockroachcockroach
• 1999: UUnet founder predicts silicon cockroaches will swamp internet traffic
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a different kind of a different kind of cockroachcockroach
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a a cleanclean example example
• students know machine availability via cell phones, updates on laundry status via SMS
• if this is coming to washing machines, much broader use of m2m applications not far behind
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baby steps toward bankingbaby steps toward banking
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your phone as your wallet
- “your cell phone as your wallet: still waiting” (cnn)
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taking baby steps to banking
• In the Philippines, SMART Padala offers a way to transmit money from users via text messages – without bank accounts
• ARYTY allows family/friends in the US to send prepaid minutes back to the Philippines
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a new banking market• In Kenya, Safaricon allows the transfer of surplus phone minutes as payments – in effect, a new currency
• 60% of mobile users worldwide are prepaid -60% of $667b ≈ $420b in minutes as a potential currency
…why give carriers all the interest?
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mobile sales that work
• 2D Barcodes allow quicker sales without standing in line (just point your phone at an item and go!)• In Japan, the Felica system allows you to pay for tickets and buy food at stores• More than 20 million Japanese consumers have phones with embedded circuitry that can function as credit cards
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Japanese phones are already there
• 80%+ cell phones sold in Japan have 2D barcode readers• 27% of consumers use their phones as barcode readers, and 26% use them as GPS systems• Moreover, a significant minority (more than 10%) use their phones as FM radios, Voice Records, and TV Tuners
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parting thoughtnet growth has never stopped
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
1,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Traffic MBper MonthM
egab
ytes
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• even in the depths of the bust, bets on IP proving out
parting thoughtdon’t bet against the net