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The Dynamic North American Meat and Livestock Market
Leland Southard
Midwest/Great Plains/Western Outlook Conference
Indianapolis, Indiana
August 14, 2003
North American Markets
• Background
• Beef/Cattle
• Pork/Hogs
• Poultry
• Issues
• Problems
• Background• World Trade Liberalization• Expanding World Meat Trade• Changing North American Policies • Country Comparative Advantage• North American Free Trade Agreement• Restricted Northwest Feeder Project• Lingering Issues
Population
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Millions
2003
Source: CIA Factbook
United StatesMexico Canada
Beef and Veal Production*Pre-BSE Expectations
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
140001,000 mts19
98
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
*
Source: USDA-FAS
United States Canada Mexico
Beef Exports as Percentage of Production
05
101520253035404550Percent
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Source: USDA-FAS
United States Canada
Beef Imports as a Percentage of Consumption
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35Percent
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Source:USDA-FAS
United StatesCanadaMexico
Major Exporter‘s Share of U.S. Beef Imports
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40Percent
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Source: USDA-ERS
Canada New ZealandAustralia
Major Importer’s Share of U.S. Beef Exports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60Percent
1998 1999 2000 20001 2002
Source:USDA-ERS
Canada MexicoSouth KoreaJapan
Cattle Exports to United States
0200400600800
100012001400160018001,000 head
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Source:USDA-ERS
CanadaMexico
U.S. Cattle Exports
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
3501,000 head
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Source: USDA-ERS
Canada Mexico
Pork Production
01000200030004000500060007000800090001,000 mts
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Source: USDA-FAS
United StatesCanadaMexico
Pork Exports as a Percentage of Production
05
101520253035404550
Percent
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
United StatesCanadaMexico
Major Importer’s Share of U.S. Pork Exports
05
101520253035404550Percent
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Source: USDA-ERS
Canada MexicoJapan
Exporter’s Share of Mexican Pork Imports (Source: USDA-FAS)
84
105
United States CanadaChile
Importer’s Market Share of U.S. Pork Imports
626466687072747678808284Percent
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Source: USDA-ERS
Canada
Hog Exports to United States
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1,000 head
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Canada
Broiler Trade• Export Share to Mexico-----6-7 percent
• Tariffs on poultry parts contentious with Mexico
• Export share to Canada-----3-5 percent
• Quebec poultry industry insists on protection from U.S. market
• Source: USDA-ERS
Importer’s Share of U.S.Turkey Exports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60Percent
1998 1999 2000 20001 2002
Source: USDA-ERS
Mexico
Importer’s Share of U.S. Shell Egg Exports
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37Percent
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Source: USDA-ERS
Canada
Confirmed Disease Problems • United States• Exotic Newcastle Disease
• Avian Influenza
• Mexico• Classical Swine Fever
• Tuberculosis
• Exotic Newcastle Disease
• Canada • BSE
Conclusions• North American Meat and Livestock Markets are
integrated.
• Market shares are significant enough that events in one country affect markets in the other countries.
• Trade issues should be viewed in a North American context.
• Diseases and domestic industry protection issues will continue to shadow the markets.
