The Dynamics of ICT R&D in China

Stéphane Grumbach INRIA

Asian rise in ICT R&D Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), JRC Bruxelles, Feb. 16-17 2010

ICT in China: mobile and online

–  450 millions online people •  (60% under 30) •  19% growth in 2010

–  800 millions mobile •  300 millions mobile surfer •  30% growth

–  Very active online world

China leading in terms of usage penetration of web 2.0 applications

(McKinsey) S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb 2011 2

ICT in China: the industry

New ICT giants with strong export capacity

–  Lenovo •  Spin-off of the Chinese Academy of Sciences •  Bought IBM PC’s for 1.75 Billions US$ 2005 •  #1 PC market in Asia-Pacific region

–  ZTE and Huawei •  Telecom equipment •  Global research network

–  China Mobile, China Unicom, China Telecom •  Telecom operators

–  Baidu, Tencent, Alibaba •  Internet

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ICT in China: the research

1.  National Supercomputing Center in Tianjin, China Tianhe-1A - NUDT, Intel X5670, 186368 processors 2566 Tflops

2.  Oak Ridge National Laboratory, USA, Cray Inc., 224162 processors, 1759 Tflops

3.  National Supercomputing Centre in Shenzhen (NSCS) Nebulae - Dawning, Intel X5650, 120640 processors, 1271 Tflops

4.  GSIC Center, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Japan TSUBAME 2.0 - HP Xeon 6C X5670, 73278 processors 1192 Tflops

5.  DOE/SC/LBNL/NERSC USA Hopper - Cray XE6 153408 processors 1054 Tflops

6.  CEA, France Tera-100 – Bull 138368 processors 1050 Tflops

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Chinese systems: 2 in the TOP5

42 in the TOP500

Nov 2010

ICT in China from Research

to Development

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Human resources 20 millions students --- 5% tertiary education (USA 37%) New promotion: 15% of an age group

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Chinese students abroad Foreign recipients of U.S. S&E doctorates, by country 1985–2005

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Source www.nsf.gov/statistics

189.346 recipients

Global R&D expenditure

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Source: OECD-MSTI’09

2008

Global R&D expenditure

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Source: OECD-MSTI’09

Expected R&D expenditure 2011 China: 150 billion US$ Japan: 150 billion US$ USA: 400 billion US$

2008

ICT in China: a research priority

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Source: MOST (2009b) Annual Report of the State Programs of Science and Technology Development

Program 863 for High-tech R&D (2008) Expenditure on R&D

China’s high-tech industries

Publications

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SCI: 6% of world total 15% yearly growth #5 (behind US,JP,GB,DE)

EI: 20% of world total 30% yearly growth #2 (behind US)

Source: 中国科技论文统计结果2009

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Impact and visibility

Strong evolution of the citation rate of publications –  13th position (18th in 2003) –  Progression of citations: 28% in 2006 –  Publications SCI 1997-2006

•  40% of articles never cited •  225 articles cited more than 100 times (129 in 2005)

Impact Reasonable in new materials, mathematics, chemistry, physics In ICT:

–  20,995 SCI papers (1999-2009) –  8.3% of world total –  1.91 citation per paper (world average 3.25)

S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb 2011 Source: 中国科技论文统计结果2009

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Expenditure by domain Weak fundamental research: 5% OECD average: 20% Still a logic

of developing country Technological catch up But strong link with fundamental research abroad

S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb 2011 Source: MOST

IPR: triadic patents

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Global share 1995 - 2005

Source: OECD-STI’08

Proprietary standards Priority of the 12th 5 year plan (2011-2015)

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Ref. Hervé Cayla, Gailong

DMB-T

China’s national standard for Digital Terrestrial TV

China BroadBand Wireless IP Standard Working Group, promoter of WAPI, China’s WLAN standard

AVS is China’s standard for Audio & Video (competitor of MPEG-4 AVC)

TD-SCDMA is China’s 3G standard

IGRS is China’s home networking standard

Enhanced Versatile Disk, China’s standard for HD DVD

RFID

China’s national standard for RFID under discussion

China Communications Standard Association

FutURE Forum to prepare China’s upcoming “Beyond

3G” standard

Ministry of Science and Technology

Ministry of Industry and

Information Technology

SCDMA, China’s standard that could compete with Wimax

Internet 2 & IPv6 technologies

GM-U Code, China National Standard for 2D barcodes

SARFT announced China's National Standard for Mobile TV & interactive multimedia services (STiMi & CMMB)

R&D expenditures by performing sector

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Source www.nsf.gov/statistics Industry represented only 45% in 1998

Industrial R&D spending 2008

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Circa 1 Trillion US$ For the 1000 top corporations

Few Chinese corporations in R&D 2008 investment in R&D

A dozen Chinese corporations among the top 1000 None in the top 100

  PetroChina 818.26 Million Euros, (intensity 0.7%)   ZTE (telecom equip.) 450.52 Million Euros, (9.6%)   China Petroleum & Chemical   China Railway Construction   China Coal Energy   China Communications Construction   BYD Electronic equipment   …

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Source: 2009 EU Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard

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#1 for ICT exports since 2004 High-Tech exports mostly under foreign brands

Source: MOST

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4 Chinese among the first 16

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Source:www.internetworldstats.com

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Globalization of R&D 1993: First foreign R&D center (Motorola) 2004: 700 foreign R&D centers 2005: China 1st localization for new R&D centers

ahead of the USA and India

Objectives 1) adapt products to local market 2) technological intelligence 3) global R&D

Attractiveness of China 1) market shares vs. technologies participation in the design of Chinese standards 2) talents 3) costs

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Most R&D labs are in IT

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Figure 1 The industrial distribution of autonomous R&D labs settled by BusinessWeek 1000 MNCs in China（2004）

23%

18%13%5%

7%7%

6%6%

5% 4% 3% 2%1%

Software TelecommunicationsSemiconductors Industrial Equipments and componentsAutomobiles Commodity ChemicalsBiotechnology&Drags Household ElectronicsOther IT Products ChemicalsFood and beverages Industrial ConglomeratesOthers

Concluding remarks

  A belief in Science –  “Scientific policy” –  2.5% of GDP in R&D by 2020 –  World scientific leader by 2050

  A test for High-Tech and ICT –  Young population –  Modernizing country –  A tradition of networking

  An economic and political strength –  Recover its glorious past –  Capacity to reform and adapt to changes

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References

  UNESCO Science Report 2010   OECD Factbook 2009   OECD Science, Technology and Industry (STI) Scoreboard 2009   OECD Reviews of tertiary education, CHINA, 2009   OECD Reviews of Innovation Policy, CHINA, 2007   http://www.most.gov.cn/eng/statistics/2007/index.htm   中国科技论文统计结果 2009   www.nsf.gov/statistics   www.booz.com   www.starmass.com

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