the economic briefing

The Economic BriefingFebruary 24, 2016

Mississippi University Research CenterMississippi Institutions of Higher Learning

Darrin Webb, State [email protected]

(601)432‐6556

To subscribe to our publications, email Janna Taylor at [email protected] our website for state and county level economic data www.mississippi.edu/urc

Follow URC on Twitter @MississippiURC

US Jobs Added By Month

MS University Research Center, IHL 2February 2016

22,500

(4,167

)

(177

,000

)

288,16

7

323,33

3

208,50

0

158,50

0

262,75

0

270,16

7

161,91

7

25,917

(69,58

3)

97,583

234,66

7

321,00

0

179,83

3

235,41

7

283,91

7

253,91

7

264,91

7

162,58

3

(143

,833

)

(41,66

7)

9,41

7

170,16

7

209,50

0

174,33

3

95,583

(297

,417

)

(422

,500

)

88,833

173,91

7

179,08

3

192,58

3

251,25

0

227,91

7

(500,000)

(400,000)

(300,000)

(200,000)

(100,000)

‐

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,0001980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Average Mon

thly Gain By

Year

Job Growth has improved in recent years & ended 2015 on a relatively strong note, but the January report was weak

187,00

0

168,00

0

272,00

0

310,00

0

213,00

0

306,00

0

232,00

0

218,00

0 286,00

0

200,00

0

331,00

0

292,00

0

221,00

0

265,00

0

84,000

251,00

0

273,00

0

228,00

0

277,00

0

150,00

0

149,00

0

295,00

0

280,00

0

262,00

0

151,00

0

‐ 50,000

100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000

Jan‐14

Feb‐14

Mar‐14

Apr‐14

May‐14

Jun‐14

Jul‐1

4

Aug‐14

Sep‐14

Oct‐14

Nov‐14

Dec‐14

Jan‐15

Feb‐15

Mar‐15

Apr‐15

May‐15

Jun‐15

Jul‐1

5

Aug‐15

Sep‐15

Oct‐15

Nov‐15

Dec‐15

Jan‐16

US Employment Cost IndexWage and Salaries for All Civilian WorkersGrowth Over The Prior Year by Quarter

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

Mar‐01

Mar‐02

Mar‐03

Mar‐04

Mar‐05

Mar‐06

Mar‐07

Mar‐08

Mar‐09

Mar‐10

Mar‐11

Mar‐12

Mar‐13

Mar‐14

Mar‐15

February 2016 MS University Research Center, IHL 3

Despite gains in 2014 and 2015 we continue to have below “normal” wage growth.

Institute For Supply Management IndicesAn Index above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 a contraction

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0Jan‐07

Jan‐08

Jan‐09

Jan‐10

Jan‐11

Jan‐12

Jan‐13

Jan‐14

Jan‐15

Jan‐16

ISM Indices: abo

ve 50 is expand

ing

Manufacturing Index Nonmanufacturing Index


The MFG Index was 48.2 in January, the lowest level since mid 2009. The Non‐MFG Index has declined for three straight months

and is the lowest in 2 years.

Land Rig CountBaker Hughes Rotary Rig Count

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Jan‐00

Jan‐01

Jan‐02

Jan‐03

Jan‐04

Jan‐05

Jan‐06

Jan‐07

Jan‐08

Jan‐09

Jan‐10

Jan‐11

Jan‐12

Jan‐13

Jan‐14

Jan‐15

Jan‐16

US MS


US MS

Oil Prices WTIWTI= West Texas Intermediate, Forecast is from IHS

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$1201990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Dollars Per Barrel


Oil prices are expected to rise gradually and are not expected to reach $100 per barrel until 2023.

Consumer and Business Sentiment

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

Jan‐07 Jan‐08 Jan‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐11 Jan‐12 Jan‐13 Jan‐14 Jan‐15 Jan‐16

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment


Both series weakened in 2015. The NFIB Index is at its weakest point since early 2014. Turmoil in the stock market is a factor in the decreased optimism. The weak January Jobs report is another.

Growth In Real US GDPHistorical and IHS Global Insight Baseline Projections

1.9%

‐0.1%

3.6%

2.7%

4.0%

2.7%

3.8%

4.5%

4.4% 4.7%

4.1%

1.0%

1.8%

2.8%

3.8%

3.3%

2.7%

1.8%

‐0.3%

‐2.8%

2.5%

1.6%

2.2%

1.5%

2.4%

2.4%

2.4% 2.8%

‐4.0%

‐3.0%

‐2.0%

‐1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017


Growth In Real MS GDPHistorical and University Research Center Projections

2.4%

5.6%

4.7%

6.1%

2.7%

2.0%

2.0% 2.4% 2.8%

0.5%

‐0.9%

0.9%

4.0%

2.2%

1.8%

2.7%

1.9%

0.9%

‐3.1%

1.4%

‐0.6%

2.3%

‐0.5% 0.0%

1.0%

1.9% 2.2%

‐4.0%

‐2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017


With a downgrade in the National forecast, URC Projections fall slightly from that which was published in January. Previous forecast

for 2016 was 2.2%. The 2017 forecast did not change.

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

Jan‐07 Jan‐08 Jan‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐11 Jan‐12 Jan‐13 Jan‐14 Jan‐15

Inde

x 20

04=

100

MS Index of Coincident Indicators

10MS University Research Center, IHLFebruary 2016

The MSCI showed tremendous upward momentum in 2015. This is largely due to a falling unemployment rate. Likewise the December

dip was largely due to a rising unemployment rate.

The Mississippi Index of Coincident Indicators reflects economic conditions existing in a given month. The index is constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and re‐indexed to 2004. The Index is based on changes in nonfarm employment, the unemployment rate, average manufacturing workweek length and wage and salary disbursements.

Unemployment Rate (2014Q4‐2015Q3 Average)

6.5% 6.0% 5.4%

0.6% 0.5%0.5%

0.9%0.7% 0.8%

4.3%4.1% 4.1%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

MS SE (Exc. MS) USU‐6: With All Marginally Attached Workers and Those Working Part‐Time for Economic Reasons

U‐5: With Discouraged workers and Other Marginally Attached Workers

U‐4: With Discouraged Workers

U‐3: Unemployment Rate

12.3%

10.8%11.4%


MS Unemployment Rates 4‐Qtr Moving Average

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

2003:II –2004:I

2003:III –

2004:II

2003:IV

–2004:III

2004:II –2005:I

2004:III –

2005:II

2004:IV

–2005:III

2005:II –2006:I

2005:III –

2006:II

2005:IV

–2006:III

2006:II –2007:I

2006:III –

2007:II

2006:IV

–2007:III

2007:II –2008:I

2007:III –

2008:II

2007:IV

–2008:III

2008:II –2009:I

2008:III –

2009:II

2008:IV

–2009:III

2009:II –2010:I

2009:III –

2010:II

2009:IV

–2010:III

2010:II –2011:I

2010:III –

2011:II

2010:IV

–2011:III

2011:II –2012:I

2011:III –

2012:II

2011:IV

–2012:III

2012:II –2013:I

2012:III –

2013:II

2012:IV

–2013:III

2013:II –2014:I

2013:III –

2014:II

2013:IV

–2014:III

2014:II –2015:I

2014:III –

2015:II

2014:IV

–2015:III

Gap Between U‐6 and U‐3 U‐3 U‐4 U‐5 U‐6



Labor force Participation Rate by State November 2015

67.8%WI

56.1%KY

56.2%AL

56.3%MS

57.0%NM

58.0%AR

58.9%FL

58.9%TN

59.0%SC

59.7%AZ

59.8%LA

60.3%MI

60.9%NY

61.0%GA

61.1%NC

61.3%OR

61.9%OK

62.0%CA

62.0%ME

62.1%HI

62.4%OH

62.5%DE

62.6%PA

62.8%WA

63.4%NV

63.4%TX

63.7%IN

63.8%NJ

64.1%MT

64.2%ID

64.5%MA

64.7%RI

64.7%VA

64.8%IL

65.1%MO

65.6%CT

66.3%CO

66.7%VT

67.0%MD

67.2%AK

67.8%KS

53.0%WV

67.9%NH

67.9%WY

68.1%UT

69.3%SD

69.7%IA

69.7%ND

69.8%NE

69.9%MN

70.3%DC

50.0% < 60.0%60.0% ≤ 65.0%

> 65.0%

U.S. 62.5%

Labor force Participation RatePercentage of Civilian Population 16 Yrs. And Over in the Labor Force

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

US MS


Average Annual Growth in EmploymentAL

AL

AL

AL

AL AL AL

AL

AR

AR

AR

AR AR

AR

AR

AR

FL

FL

FL

FL

FL

FL

FL FL

GA

GA

GA

GA GA

GA

GA

GA

KY

KY

KY

KY KY

KY

KY

KY

LA

LA

LA

LA

LA LA LA

LA

MS

MS

MS

MS

MS

MS

MS MS

NC

NC

NC

NC

NC

NC NC

NC

OK

OK

OK

OK

OK

OK

OK

OK

SC

SC

SC

SC

SC

SC

SC

SC

TN

TN

TN

TN

TN

TN

TN TNTX

TX

TX

TX

TX TX TX

TX

US

US

US

US

US

US US US

‐8.0%

‐6.0%

‐4.0%

‐2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Generally speaking, Mississippi was not hit as hard in the recession as other states. However, the state’s recovery has been much slower.

Employment Relative to Pre‐RecessionDecember 2015 as a Percentage Above (Below) December 2007

24.6%

‐2.2%

‐2.9%

‐5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

ND TX UT

DC CO WA AK SD MA NY

CA ID SC NE

TN IAMN GA OR FL KY OK

MD NC IN MT LA DE HI VA VT KS AR MI

NH PA WI

OH RI AZ CT NJ

MO

ME

WV IL

WY

MS

NM AL NV


MS is one of 13 states where the December 2015 employment was below that of December 2007. States rank from a high of 24.6% above to a low

of 2.9 below. MS is 2.2% below.

Wage And Salary Growth, 2010‐2014 Adjusted for Inflation

49.9%

16.2%

13.3%

12.5%

12.2%

12.1%

11.6%

10.4%

9.2%

9.0%

9.0%

9.0%

8.2%

8.1%

8.1%

8.1%

8.0%

7.7%

7.6%

7.5%

7.4%

7.3%

7.1%

6.9%

6.8%

6.7%

6.6%

6.5%

6.5%

6.1%

5.8%

5.8%

5.7%

5.5%

5.4%

5.1%

5.1%

5.1%

4.5%

4.4%

4.0%

3.8%

2.8%

2.6%

2.5%

2.0%

1.7%

1.7%

1.6%

1.4%

1.0%

0.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

ND TX WA UT

CO CA OK

OR SD MI

MT

MA

MN FL GA IA US AZ TN OH SC WY ID NC

NH NY

NE IN DE WI

KS AL HI IL NV LA PA RI VT KY MO AR DC CT MD NJ

ME

MS

WV AL VA NM


Average growth for the US was 8.0%. MS growth was 1.7%, which ranks us 5th from the bottom,

MS was ahead of WV, AL, VA, and NM.

MS Wages and Salaries by Sector2000‐2014

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

$9

$10

Billion

s of 2004 $

Government

Trade, Transportation & Utilities

Manufacturing

Education & Health Services

Professional & Business Services

Leisure & Hospitality

Construction

Financial & Related Activities

Other Services

Natural Resources

Information


Government Dependence, 2014Income from Transfer Payments and Government Earnings as a share of Total Personal Income

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

WV

MS KY AR NM ME AL SC MI

TN VT OR AZ RI FL NC

OH IN MO DE PA LA MT ID OK

GA NY

WI

US IA NV AK HI

MN

WA KS IL CA SD MA

NH TX NE NJ

MD UT

VA CT CO ND

WY

Transfer Payments Government Earnings


MS Index of Leading Indicators

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15

Inde

x 20

04=

100

20MS University Research Center, IHL

The MSLI showed very little upward momentum in late 2015.

February 2016

The Mississippi Index of Leading Indicators reflects economic conditions expected for the coming months. The index is constructed by the University Research Center and indexed to 2004. There are 7 components of the Index: MS Initial Unemployment Claims; MS Income Tax Withholdings; MS Value of Residential Building Permits; MS MFG Employment Intensity Index, ISM Index of US MFG Activity; US Consumer Expectations Index and US Retail Sales.

MS Nonfarm Employment

MS University Research Center, IHL 21

800

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

Thou

san

ds

Despite growing since 2010, employment remains almost 27 thousand jobs below the pre‐recession peak. Annual Job growth has been fairly stable between 0.7% and 0.9% for the past four years.

1,135.0 Dec 15

1,161.8 Feb 08

February 2016

1,084.2 Jan 10

Where are the Jobs?Mississippi added an average 10,075 jobs in 2015 over 2014

‐2,483

‐675

‐142

150

817

1,483

1,683

1,742

1,983

2,300

3,217

‐4,000 ‐3,000 ‐2,000 ‐1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

Construction

Mining & Logging

Other Services

Information

Financial Activities

Government

Manufacturing

Education & Health Services

Professional & Business Activities

Trade, Transportation & Utilities

Leisure & Hospitality



2,700De Soto

-1,210Madison

-1,010Jackson

-670Lauderdale-490

Warren

-480Tunica

-340Harrison

-230Washington

-160Sunflower

-150Hancock

-140Winston

-130Monroe

-120Chickasaw

-100Jones

-80Adams

-80Wayne

-70Bolivar

-70Leake

-70Marshall

-60Attala

-60Coahoma

-60Humphreys

-50Claiborne

-50Clay

-50Kemper

-40Quitman

-40Wilkinson

-30

Jefferson Davis

-30Pearl River

-20Jasper

-20Webster

-10

Lawrence

-10Lincoln

-10Oktibbeha

0Calhoun

0Newton

0Tippah

10Choctaw

10Franklin

10Issaquena

20Covington

20Jefferson

20Lamar

20Leflore

20Sharkey

40Amite

40Carroll

40Holmes

50Montgomery

50Noxubee

50Smith

50Stone

60Lowndes

60Tate

70

Walthall

80Greene

80Yalobusha

90Benton

100Grenada

100Perry

100Tallahatchie

120Marion

120Pike

130Prentiss

130Tishomingo

140Copiah

140Panola

150Neshoba

180Clarke180

Simpson

200Yazoo

230Itawamba

230Union

260Pontotoc

270Forrest

290Scott

300George

310Lee

320Alcorn

670Lafayette

1,140Rankin

1,980Hinds

Decline (33 Counties)Less than 150 Jobs Gained (33 Counties)150 or more Jobs Gained (16 Counties)

Mississippi Added 10,075 (0.9%)

Employment Gained (Lost) By County, 2014‐2015

MS Manufacturing Employment and Hours Worked

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0Jan‐90

Jan‐91

Jan‐92

Jan‐93

Jan‐94

Jan‐95

Jan‐96

Jan‐97

Jan‐98

Jan‐99

Jan‐00

Jan‐01

Jan‐02

Jan‐03

Jan‐04

Jan‐05

Jan‐06

Jan‐07

Jan‐08

Jan‐09

Jan‐10

Jan‐11

Jan‐12

Jan‐13

Jan‐14

Jan‐15

Hou

rs W

orked, 3Mon

th M

oving Av

erage

Employmen

t, Thou

sand

s

WW Length Employment


MS MFG has proven to be fairly resilient in recent years. After years of decline, employment

increased in 2014 and 2015. Hours worked have been at a relatively high level as well. We are however beginning to feel the US slowdown.

Inflation Adjusted Average Hourly Manufacturing Earnings in Mississippi

$11.00

$11.50

$12.00

$12.50

$13.00

$13.50

$14.00

$14.50

$15.00Mar‐05

Jun‐05

Sep‐05

Dec‐05

Mar‐06

Jun‐06

Sep‐06

Dec‐06

Mar‐07

Jun‐07

Sep‐07

Dec‐07

Mar‐08

Jun‐08

Sep‐08

Dec‐08

Mar‐09

Jun‐09

Sep‐09

Dec‐09

Mar‐10

Jun‐10

Sep‐10

Dec‐10

Mar‐11

Jun‐11

Sep‐11

Dec‐11

Mar‐12

Jun‐12

Sep‐12

Dec‐12

Mar‐13

Jun‐13

Sep‐13

Dec‐13

Mar‐14

Jun‐14

Sep‐14

Dec‐14

Mar‐15

Jun‐15

Sep‐15

Dec‐15


MS Residential Building PermitsThree Month Moving Average Number of Units

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

20

220

420

620

820

1020

1220

1420

1620

1820

Jan-

00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Jan-

10

Jan-

11

Jan-

12

Jan-

13

Jan-

14

Jan-

15

Em

plo

ymen

t (0

00

)

Per

mit

s

Annual Average 3 Month Moving Avg. Construction Emp


We finally began to see some upward momentum in 2015. Annual average for 2015 was 565 Units, the highest since 2008.

Graph may understate improvement as permits are not required in the county.

MS Gaming Revenue

‐15.0%

‐10.0%

‐5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,50019

95

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Line

Graph

: Ann

ual %

CHG

Bar G

raph

: Millions of D

ollars

Coast River Total % CHG Total


Unemployment ClaimsThree Month Moving Average

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000Ja

n-00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Jan-

10

Jan-

11

Jan-

12

Jan-

13

Jan-

14

Jan-

15

Con

tin

ued

Un

emp

loym

ent

Cla

ims

Init

ial U

nem

plo

ymen

t C

laim

s

Initial Claims Continued Claims


Year‐Over‐Year Growth in Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments: Mississippi

by Quarter

‐8%

‐6%

‐4%

‐2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%


Gray Areas Represent National Recessions.

Declines are characteristic of recessions. The series showed weakness in 2013 and 2014, but has been

positive for four consecutive quarters.

MS Withholdings Y/Y Growth By QTR (Not Adjusted for Inflation)

‐6%

‐4%

‐2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Mar‐07 Mar‐08 Mar‐09 Mar‐10 Mar‐11 Mar‐12 Mar‐13 Mar‐14 Mar‐15


MS Sales Tax Transfers to the GFY/Y Growth By QTR (Not Adjusted for Inflation)

‐15%

‐10%

‐5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Mar‐07 Mar‐08 Mar‐09 Mar‐10 Mar‐11 Mar‐12 Mar‐13 Mar‐14 Mar‐15


Economic Outlook of Key Indicators

Indicator 2014 2015 2016 2017MS Real GDP 0.0% 1.0% 1.9% 2.2%

US Real GDP 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.8%

MS Employment (Est. Based) 0.7% 0.9% 1.0% 0.9%

US Employment (Est. Based) 1.9% 2.1% 1.7% 1.3%

MS Real Total Personal Income 1.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.2%

US Real Total Personal Income 3.0% 4.2% 3.1% 3.1%


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