the economic impacts of successful orange county ... · fire chief otto drozd iii of the e county...

The Economic Impacts ofSuccessful Orange CountyCommercial Fire Interventions

Prepared by:

Christopher V. Hawkins, Ph.D.School of Public AdministrationCenter for Public and Nonprofit ManagementUniversity of Central Florida

Nicolas ThalmuellerResearch AssistantCenter for Public and Nonprofit ManagementUniversity of Central Florida

Luis Nieves-Ruiz, AICPEconomic Development Program ManagerEast Central Florida Regional Planning Council

March 29, 2014

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Executive Summary

• This study focuses exclusively on commercial entities that could have temporarily or

permanently lost their production capability or operations without the intervention of

the Orange County Fire Rescue Department (OCFRD).

• A model developed by Regional Economic Models Inc. (REMI) was used to estimate

the economic impact of OCFRD successful interventions in 28 fire incidents at

commercial establishments in Fiscal Year 2013 (FY 2013).

• Three sets of analyses are presented, one that examines the 28 total successful

commercial fire interventions, one that examines only 17 incidents involving active

fires, and one that examines only 11 fire interventions where other actions were

taken.

• Without OCRFD response, 8,741 total jobs in Orange County would have been lost,

as well as 10,082 jobs in Florida.

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would have decreased by 720 million in Orange

County and 831 million in Florida.

• Real disposable personal income would have been reduced by nearly 200 million

dollars in Orange County and 328 million dollars in Florida.

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Table of Contents

Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................................... 2

Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 4

Study Rationale ......................................................................................................................................... 5

Study Objectives ....................................................................................................................................... 7

REMI..................................................................................................................................................... 7

Economic Impact Analysis: Study Method and Scenario ............................................................................. 9

Method .................................................................................................................................................... 10

Data Inputs .............................................................................................................................................. 11

Results ......................................................................................................................................................... 13

Results for all 28 Successful Commercial Fire Interventions ................................................................. 13

Results for the 17 Active Fire Interventions ....................................................................................... 16

Results for the 11 Fire Interventions where OCFRD Took Other Actions ............................................. 19

Conclusions ................................................................................................................................................. 22

Appendix A: REMI Model Inputs .......................................................................................................... 23

Appendix B - Incidents in which OCFRD actively extinguished a fire (17) .......................................... 26

Appendix C: Incidents in which OCFRD took other actions to ensure fire safety (11) .......................... 28

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Introduction

The general mission of American fire services is to protect life and property and to ensure

a safe and livable community and a strong local economy. Fire interventions serve that mission

by saving lives and protecting business operations.

Fire Chief Otto Drozd III of the Orange County Fire Rescue Department (OCFRD) and

the OCFRD Planning Bureau have partnered with the Center for Public and Nonprofit

Management at the University of Central Florida and the East Central Florida Regional Planning

Council to conduct a regional economic impact analysis of OCFRD commercial fire

interventions during FY 2013. The results of this study will help assist in guiding strategic

improvements to this essential emergency service. Potential employment and economic losses

were calculated using a standardized and scientifically proven methodology. We want to be able

to say, with accuracy and scientific efficacy, how firefighting, fire prevention, and rescue

operations impact the economy.

This study requires information from numerous types of fire interventions. In addition to

extinguishing active fires, firefighters engage in activities that are essential to ensure that

commercial operations are not interrupted by fire threat or damage. Firefighters for example,

investigate the cause of the fire, remove dangerous materials, secure all utilities, conduct

ventilation, check for additional hot spots, and through salvage and overhaul tactics; ensure that

the fire will not rekindle.

Thus, three separate analyses are presented. One shows the economic effects of all

successful commercial fire interventions conducted by OCFRD during FY 2013; another shows

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the effects of interventions where OCFRD responded to and actively extinguished a fire; and a

third shows the effects of the interventions where OCFRD responded and took other actions.

Study Rationale

It is no secret that in recent years the budgets of local governments and public agencies

have been constrained. Local fire departments are among the important public agencies

competing for resources and funding to protect and enhance their operations. Organizations must

be able to analyze the quality and effects of their activities in order to develop strategies and

programs to improve their efforts. Organizations must be able to show the value, impact, and

consequences of their efforts in order to provide accountability and to assess how effectively the

program achieves its goals.

This evaluation is intended to help support and extend policies and programs that are

implemented to meet human needs. Identifying the regional economic impact of successful

commercial fire interventions will allow OCFRD to improve or further develop program

effectiveness, increase understanding, and inform future decisions about allocating resources.

Most assessments measure direct impacts of fire interventions, such as whether the

program accomplishes its intended purpose to protect lives and property. The effectiveness of

fire services can be evaluated in terms of response times, lives saved, and property lost. The

National Fire Protection Association estimates that in 2012 public fire departments responded to

1,375,000 fires in the United States, which is about 1 fire every 23 seconds. These fires resulted

in an estimated $12,427,000,000 in direct property loss, an increase of 6.6% from 2011; 2,855

civilian fire fatalities; and 16,500 civilian fire injuries. The 99,500 non-residential structure fires

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accounted for $2.6 billion in property damage in 20121. However, this type of analysis is unable

to comprehensively identify what the true value of local fire services are.

This study will generate empirical data that shows the degree to which OCFRD efforts to

protect property through commercial fire interventions impacted the local economy.

Commercial businesses and organizations exert direct, indirect, and induced impacts on a

state or county’s economy. If a commercial business or organization is adversely affected by

fire, causing a temporary or permanent cessation of trade or relocation, this will also affect the

local and state economies. Without successful fire interventions, business operations are

disrupted, production capacity is reduced, and jobs and wages are lost. By understanding the full

economic value of commercial fire interventions, fire departments are able to improve the

efficiency of fire services.

In 2012 The Phoenix Fire Department and the United Phoenix Firefighters Association

partnered with Underwriter Laboratories and Arizona State University’s Seidman Research

Institute to develop a method for assessing the full economic impact of firefighting. Our study

follows a similar methodology as the Arizona Study.2

1 Karter, M. (2013). Fire Loss in the United States During 2012. National Fire Prevention Association, Retrieved from: http://www.nfpa.org/~/media/Files/Research/NFPA reports/Overall Fire Statistics/osfireloss.pdf. 2 Evans, A., (2013).The Economic Impact of Successful Commercial Fire Interventions, Phoenix Fire Department.

http://www.nfpa.org/~/media/Files/Research/NFPA%20reports/Overall%20Fire%20Statistics/osfireloss.pdf

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Study Objectives

The objectives of this study are to:

• Conduct an analysis of businesses (based on 3 digit NAICS code) that could have lost

production capacity or operations without successful intervention from OCFRD.

• Quantify employment, output, gross domestic product, and real disposable personal

income losses in Orange County and the State of Florida if the commercial fires had not

been extinguished or prevented by OCFRD.

REMI

Regional Economic Models, Inc. creates regional economic-demographic forecasting and

simulation models designed to predict the regional economic and demographic effects of public

policies and external events on a local economy and its population. The REMI name is

recognized for quality, accuracy, and integrity. Universities, consulting firms, and governments

of all levels frequently turn to REMI to answer “What If?” questions about regional policy

changes or external events. The REMI model integrates input-output, computable general

equilibrium, econometric, and new economic geography methodologies to create a

comprehensive modeling framework.

The specific REMI model used for this analysis was REMI Policy Insight+. The REMI

model simulation first forecasts the future of a regional economy and then predicts the effects on

that economy when the user implements a change. The REMI model uses thousands of

calculations to represent industry and regional relationships and also adjusts for business cycles

and population migration. Models can be built to address changes in single regions, which can be

county, state, national, or multiple regions. REMI models are dynamic; they demonstrate

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economic changes over time, allowing firms and individuals to change their behavior in response

to changing economic conditions. Users can simulate the effects of any aspects of the economy,

calculating changes to thousands of output variables in seconds. The purpose is to inform and

improve the quality of public policy decisions and evaluate the effect of any policy change or

event to the economy.3 For more information on REMI see http://www.remi.com/.

3 Treyz, G., (1995). Policy Analysis Applications of REMI Economic Forecasting and Simulation Models. International Journal of Public Administration, 18 (1), 13-42.

http://www.remi.com/

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Economic Impact Analysis: Study Method and Scenario

Changes in economic activity reverberate throughout regional economies. The

interruption of business activity affects the economy as a whole. Regional economics are based

on continuing demand for goods and services, which creates new transactions between

businesses within the economic system. Thus, business activity has direct, indirect, and induced

effects on regional economies. In this study, the estimated impacts incorporate the direct

combined effects of each commercial property that received a successful fire intervention from

OCFRD, along with the indirect and induced effects that potential disruptions in business activity

would have had on the regional county and state economies.

Direct effects include capital investment and people employed by the business. The

indirect and induced, or multiplier effects, are secondary expenditures and jobs created as a result

of the direct effects of investment and employment. When a company makes a purchase from a

supplier to support its operation, the jobs and investment created by that supplier are indirect

effects. As jobs are retained and created the employee wages resulting from those jobs create

new demand for goods and services in the market. The induced effects are the increased demand

for goods and services created when workers spend their wages within the local economy (see

http://www.remi.com for a detailed explanation of these factors).

If a local business is unable to conduct operations or employ workers due to fire damage,

there are numerous effects on the regional economy. The direct effects are the employment,

sales, and capital investment retained in the short term due to successful commercial fire

interventions, which prevented permanent or temporary loss of business operations. The indirect

effects are employment and sales generated by continued spending and transactions by

http://www.remi.com/

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businesses. The induced impacts are employment and sales generated by increased pending

based on the income earned from the direct and indirect effects.

Method

REMI creates models for each region that reflect the unique characteristics of the

regional economy. This study uses a REMI model that was specifically created for the East

Central Florida region (Brevard, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Volusia counties) and

has built-in assumptions based on the economic characteristics of this region. The rest of the

State of Florida, as well as the rest of the nation, is also represented in the model to incorporate

economic interactions that extend beyond the county boundaries. REMI models account for

variations in the economic impacts of businesses through time. These estimated impacts are the

difference between the baseline economy and the baseline economy with the new/saved

enterprise. Basically, we begin with the model that represents the regional economy. We then

identify industry employment and sales that would potentially have been lost due to fire damage.

And finally, we input the direct effects of industry employment and sales loss into the REMI

model and analyze the economic impacts to Orange County and the State of Florida.

The economic impacts measured in this study include:

• Gross Domestic Product: This is the total market value of all final goods and services

produced by domestic factors of production (labor, capital, materials) within the political

boundaries of an economy over a one year period. It represents the dollar value of all the

goods and services produced for the county’s and state’s final demand, but exclude the value

of intermediate goods and services purchased as inputs to final production. It can also be

defined as the sum of employee compensation (wages, salaries and benefits, including

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employer contributions to health insurance and retirement pensions), proprietor income, and

indirect business taxes.

• Real Disposable Personal Income: This is an estimate of the total personal income that is left

after personal taxes are subtracted, and thus is the total income that can be used by the

household sector for either consumption or saving over a one year period within the political

boundaries of an economy.

• Total employment: This is an estimate of the total number of full and part time jobs within

the political boundaries of an economy, encompassing every sector and industry, including

government and farm workers. Total employment therefore includes employees, sole

proprietors, and active partners, but excludes unpaid family workers and volunteers.

• Total Private Non-Farm Employment: This is an estimate of the total number of full time (or

equivalent) jobs within the political boundaries of an economy, encompassing all sectors and

industries, but excluding government and farm workers. This includes employees, sole

proprietors, and active partners, but excludes unpaid family workers and volunteers.

Data Inputs

“The Fiscal Year 2013 Commercial Fire Report for Orange County Fire Rescue”

contained 44 fire interventions by OCFRD. Of the 44 incidents that occurred between October 1,

2012 and September 30, 2013, sixteen were excluded from this study. Seven were excluded

because they took place at a school, hospital, apartment complex, or assisted living facility and

thus did not qualify for the purposes of this study. Six incidents were excluded because they

occurred at buildings that were abandoned or under construction/renovation at the time of the

fire, or because the business no longer exists for other reasons. Two businesses were excluded

because we were unable to gather data on them. One additional incident was excluded because it

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took place outside of the Orange County region. This study assesses the economic impact of the

remaining 28 commercial fire interventions.

Three separate analyses are presented in this study. The conditions for the first analysis

were that a fire had occurred in a commercial building and OCFRD has been deployed to

extinguish the fire. The conditions for the second analysis were that a fire had occurred in a

commercial building, that OCFRD had been deployed to extinguish the fire, and that the fire was

still active when OCFRD arrived.

Initial attempts to gather first-hand information on business activity, employment

numbers and wages, and potential business disruptions were unsuccessful due to inability of the

28 businesses to provide such sensitive information. Therefore, this study used data on

employment statistics and annual sales for 2013 for each business. This data was gathered from

the Infogroup database. Infogroup is a data and marketing services company that maintains a

database containing business information for thousands of businesses around the United States.

Data was aggregated by a three digit NAICS code to represent the industry to which each

business belongs.

Two input variables were used in order to project the most accurate economic impact:

number of jobs lost and loss of industry sales for each industry type. REMI has built in

assumptions about industry sales based on number of jobs. In order to avoid double counting, we

calculated the second variable, industry sales, without employment projection using jobs

numbers and annual sales for each business, and labor productivity for workers in each industry

type. A summary of data inputs is located in the Appendix’s.

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Results

Results for all 28 Successful Commercial Fire Interventions

This set of results shows that the total economic impact to Orange County and the State

of Florida would have been if the 28 total commercial fire interventions had not taken place and

these businesses had lost their production capability and operations.

Table 1 shows the total employment and private non-farm employment impacts for

Orange County and the State of Florida had OCFRD not intervened. Total employment refers to

any job in the public or private sector, including government jobs and farm workers. Total

private non-farm employment refers to the private sector only and excludes government jobs and

any impact associated with farming. The unit of measurement for each impact is in job years.

Table 1 demonstrates the total employment and total private non-farm employment job

losses that would have occurred if OCFRD had not responded to any of the 28 fire incidents.

Table 1: Employment Impact for One Year for the 28 Total Commercial Fire Interventions

Total Employment Losses

Total Private Non-Farm Employment Losses

Orange County -8,741.82 -8,331.05

State of Florida -10,082.03 -9,573.24

Host county as percentage of Florida 86.71% 87.02%

Table 1 projects 8,741 total jobs in Orange County and 10,082 jobs in the State of Florida

would have been lost, of which 5,833 were direct jobs, meaning that 2,908 indirect jobs were lost

in the Orange County region and 4,249 indirect jobs were lost for the State of Florida. Table 1

also suggests that 1,280 indirect and induced private non-farm jobs in Orange County, and 3,740

indirect and induced private non-farm jobs in the State of Florida, would have been lost.

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Table 2 shows the estimated distribution of job losses over one year for total employment

and private non-farm employment by industry type for Orange County and the State of Florida.

Table 2: Distribution of Private non-Farm employment Losses across Industry Sector for One Year for the 28 Total Commercial Fire Interventions

NAICS Code Industry Type

Jobs Lost

11 Forestry and Logging; Fishing, Hunting, and trapping -0.32 21 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction -0.60 22 Utilities -5.53 23 Construction -344.23

31-33 Manufacturing -150.43 42 Wholesale Trade -111.22

44-45 Retail Trade -365.84 48-49 Transportation and Warehousing -27.84

51 Information -58.93 52 Finance -58.49 53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing -69.84 54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services -277.15 55 Management of Companies and Enterprises -36.58

56 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services -392.50

61 Educational Services -26.61 62 Health Care and Social Assistance -628.52 71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation -121.61

72 Accommodation and Food Services -

5,425.50 81 Other Services (except Public Administration) -228.96

Total -

8,330.69

Table 2 highlights that the most affected industry would have been Accommodation and

Food Services, which would have lost 5,425 jobs. Other industries affected would have been

Health Care and Social Assistance (628 jobs), Administrative/Support and Waste Management

Services (392 jobs), Retail trade (365 jobs), and Construction (344 jobs).

Table 3 estimates the gross domestic product and real disposable personal income losses

if OCFRD had not responded to any of the 28 fire incidents.

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Table 3: Summary of Gross Domestic Product, Output, and Real Disposable Personal Income Impacts for One Year for all 28 Commercial Fire Interventions

Impact Type Initial Year Impact (2013) Gross Domestic Product (2012 dollars) Orange County -$720,077,514.65 State of Florida -$831,787,109.38 County as % of State 86.57% Output (2012 dollars) Orange County -$1,104,248,046.88 State of Florida -$1,291,625,976.56 County as % of State 85.49% Real Disposable Personal Income (2012 dollars) Orange County -$196,155,548.10 State of Florida -$328,063,964.84 County as % of State 59.79%

Table 3 projects that if OCFRD had not intervened in any of the 28 successful

commercial fire incidents, GDP in Orange County would have decreased by $720 million.

Orange County GDP reductions represent 86.5% of the statewide GDP reduction, which would

have been $831 million.

Table 3 also suggests that disposable personal income would have been reduced by $196

million in Orange County. Orange County disposable personal income only represents 59.8% of

the disposable personal income losses for the State of Florida, which would have been $328

million.

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Results for the 17 Active Fire Interventions

This set of results shows the economic impact to Orange County and Florida had OCFRD

not responded to 17 commercial fire incidents and extinguished an active fire.

Table 4 shows the total employment and total private non-farm employment job losses

that would have occurred in Orange County over one year if OCFRD had not responded to 17

active fire incidents as opposed to the total 28 incidents.

Table 4: Employment Impacts for One Year for the 17 Active Fire Commercial Fire Interventions



Orange County -3,615.30 -3,435.36

State of Florida -4,209.96 -3,986.33


Table 4 also projects 3,615 total jobs in Orange County and 4,209 jobs in State of Florida

would have been lost, of which 2,335 were direct jobs, meaning that 1,280 indirect jobs lost in

the Orange County region and 1,874 indirect jobs lost for the State of Florida. In addition, 1,100

indirect and induced private non-farm jobs in Orange County, and 1,651 indirect and induced

private non-farm jobs in the State of Florida would have been lost.


Food Services which would have lost 2,281 jobs. Other industries majorly affected would have

been Administrative/Support and Waste Management Services which would have lost 170 jobs,

Construction which would have lost 149 jobs, and Retail Trade which would have lost 142 jobs.

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Table 5: Distribution of Private Non-Farm Employment Losses across Industry Sector for One Year for the 17 Active Fire Commercial Fire Interventions.


Jobs Lost

11 Forestry and Logging; Fishing, Hunting, and Trapping -0.22 21 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction -0.27 22 Utilities -2.56 23 Construction -149.02








Total

-3,435.19

Table 6 estimates the GDP and real disposable personal income losses if OCFRD had not

responded to the 17 active fire incidents. If OCFRD had not intervened in the 17 active

commercial fire incidents, GDP in Orange County would have decreased by $316 million.

Orange County GDP losses would have accounted for 86.4% of the GDP losses for the State of

Florida.

Table 6 also suggests that disposable personal income would have been reduced by $85

million in Orange County. Orange County disposable personal income only represents 59.8% of

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the disposable personal income losses for the State of Florida, which would have been

$143 million.

Table 6: Summary of Gross Domestic Product and Real Disposable Personal Income Impacts for One Year for the 17 Active Fire Commercial Fire Interventions.

Impact Type Initial Year Impact (2013) Gross Domestic Product (2012 dollars) Orange County -$316,299,438.48 State of Florida -$366,088,867.19 County as % of State 86.40% Output (2012 dollars) Orange County -$495,529,174.80 State of Florida -$579,467,773.44 County as % of State 85.51% Real Disposable Personal Income (2012 dollars) Orange County -$85,945,129.39 State of Florida -$143,798,828.13 County as % of State 59.77%

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Results for the 11 Fire Interventions where OCFRD Took Other Actions

This set of results shows what the economic impact to Orange County and the State of

Florida would have been if the remaining 11 commercial establishments had lost their production

capability or operations due to a fire. In these incidents, fire suppression measures had been in

place and extinguished the fire. Therefore, upon arrival OCFRD took other actions to ensure that

the fire did not rekindle and further threaten the business.

Table 7 shows the total employment and total private non-farm employment job losses

that would have occurred in Orange County over one year if OCFRD had not responded to 11

fire incidents where other actions were taken opposed to the 17 incidents involving active fire

suppression. Table 7 also projects 5,125 total jobs in Orange County and 5,870 jobs in Florida

would have been lost, of which 3,498 were direct jobs, meaning that 1,627 indirect jobs were lost

in the Orange County region and 2,372 indirect jobs were lost for the State of Florida. In

addition, 4,895 indirect and induced private non-farm jobs in Orange County, and 5,584 indirect

and induced private non-farm jobs in the State of Florida would have been lost.

Table 7: Employment Impacts for One Year for the 11 Commercial Fire Interventions where Other Actions were Taken



Orange County -5,125.79 -4,895.14

State of Florida -5,870.12 -5,584.96


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Table 8: Distribution of Private Non-Farm Employment Losses across Industry Sector for One Year for the 11 Commercial Fire Interventions where Other Actions were Taken


Jobs Lost

11 Forestry and Logging; Fishing, Hunting, and Trapping -0.10 21 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction -0.33 22 Utilities -2.97 23 Construction -195.23








Total

-4,894.95


Food Services which would have lost 3,142 jobs. Other industries majorly affected would have

been Health Care and Social Assistance which would have lost 530 jobs, Retail Trade which

would have lost 223 jobs, and Administrative and Support and Waste Management and

Remediation Services which would have lost 222 jobs.

Table 9 estimates the GDP and real disposable personal income losses if OCFRD had not

responded to the 11 fire incidents where other actions were taken.

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Table 9: Summary of Gross Domestic Product and Real Disposable Personal Income Impacts for One Year for the 11 Commercial Fire Interventions

Table 9 projects that if OCFRD had not intervened in the 11 commercial fire incidents

where other actions were taken GDP in Orange County would have decreased by $409,808,758

million. Orange County GDP losses would have accounted for 86% of the GDP losses for the

State of Florida, which would have been $731,848,101 million.

Table 9 also suggests that disposable personal income would have been reduced by

$111,823,076 million in Orange County. Orange County disposable personal income only

represents 60% of the disposable personal income losses for the State of Florida, which would

have been $186,619,831 million.

Impact Type Initial Year Impact (2013) Gross Domestic Product (2012 Dollars) Orange County -$409,808,758.42 State of Florida -$472,645,922.08 County as % of State 86.71% Output (2012 Dollars) Orange County -$627,941,306.41 State of Florida -$731,848,101.50 County as % of State 85.80% Real Disposable Personal Income (2012 Dollars) Orange County -$111,823,076.37 State of Florida -$186,619,831.45 County as % of State 59.92%

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Conclusions

• If OCFRD had not intervened in the 28 fire incidents at commercial establishments in FY

2013 Orange County could have lost up to 8,741 jobs, $720 million in GDP, and $196

million in RDPI.

• If OCFRD had not intervened in the 28 fire incidents at commercial establishments in FY

2013 the State of Florida could have lost up to 10, 082 jobs, $831 million in GDP, and

$328 million in RDPI.

• The most affected industry in terms of job losses for both Orange County and the State of

Florida would have been Accommodation and Food Services. Close to 90% of the total

employment and GDP losses would have occurred in Orange County, however, only

about 60% of the total disposable personal income losses would have occurred in Orange

County.

Appendix A: REMI Model Inputs Total OCFRD Commercial Fire Interventions (28)

Business

name/Industry Type

NAICS Code

Number of Jobs

Annual Sales (2013)

Labor Productivity (Thousands)

Expected Output

Marginal Difference Input

Industry Sales Without Employment Simulation

Personal and Laundry Service

812

x 812 3 $129,000.00 50.451 $151,353.00 $22,353.00 $22,302.55

x 812 12 $964,000.00 50.451 $605,412.00 -$358,588.00 -$358,638.45

x 812 3 $148,000.00 50.451 $151,353.00 $3,353.00 $3,302.55

Total 18 $1,241,000.00 50.451 $908,118.00 -$332,882.00 -$332,932.45

Accommodation

721

x 721 11 $1,167,000.00 115.947 $1,275,417.00 $108,417.00 $108,301.05

x 721 35 $3,716,000.00 115.947 $4,058,145.00 $342,145.00 $342,029.05

x 721 2000 $212,359,000.00 115.947 $231,894,000.00

$19,535,000.00 $19,534,884.05

x 721 85 $9,025,000.00 115.947 $9,855,495.00 $830,495.00 $830,379.05

x 721 160 $15,690,000.00 115.947 $18,551,520.00 $2,861,520.00 $2,861,404.05

x 721 2000 $212,359,000.00 115.947 $231,894,000.00

$19,535,000.00 $19,534,884.05

x 721 769 $81,652,000.00 115.947 $89,163,243.00 $7,511,243.00 $7,511,127.05

x 721 14 $1,372,000.00 115.947 $1,623,258.00 $251,258.00 $251,142.05

x 721 29 $3,079,000.00 115.947 $3,362,463.00 $283,463.00 $283,347.05

Total 5103 $540,419,000.00 115.947 $591,677,541.00

$51,258,541.00 $51,258,425.05

Real Estate 531

x 531 2 $376,000.00 691.953 $1,383,906.00 $1,007,906.00 $1,007,214.05

Total 2 $376,000.00 691.953 $1,383,906.00 $1,007,906.00 $1,007,214.05

Paper Manufacturin

g

322

x 322 100 $26,593,000.00 436.426 $43,642,600.00 $17,049,600.00 $17,049,163.57

Total 100 $26,593,000.00 436.426 $43,642,600.00 $17,049,600.00 $17,049,163.57

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Business name/Industry

Type

NAICS Code

Number of Jobs

Annual Sales (2013)


Expected Output



Food Service/Drinki

ng Places

722

x 722 38 $2,138,000.00 53.339 $2,026,882.00 -$111,118.00 -$111,171.34

x 722 10 $562,000.00 53.339 $533,390.00 -$28,610.00 -$28,663.34

x 35 $1,969,000.00 53.339 $1,866,865.00 -$102,135.00 -$102,188.34

Total 83 $4,669,000.00 53.339 $4,427,137.00 -$241,863.00 -$241,916.34

Retail 44

x 44 6 $1,699,000.00 71.484 $428,904.00 -$1,270,096.00 -$1,270,167.48

x 44 2 $278,000.00 71.484 $142,968.00 -$135,032.00 -$135,103.48

x 44 1 $225,000.00 71.484 $71,484.00 -$153,516.00 -$153,587.48

x 44 12 $2,232,000.00 71.484 $857,808.00 -$1,374,192.00 -$1,374,263.48

x 44 5 $3,286,000.00 71.484 $357,420.00 -$2,928,580.00 -$2,928,651.48

x 44 45 $11,915,000.00 71.484 $3,216,780.00 -$8,698,220.00 -$8,698,291.48

Total 71 $19,635,000.00 71.484 $5,075,364.00 -$14,559,636.00 -$14,559,707.48

Machinery Manufacturin

g

333

x 333 10 $3,305,000.00 265.72 $2,657,200.00 -$647,800.00 -$648,065.72

Total 10 $3,305,000.00 265.72 $2,657,200.00 -$647,800.00 -$648,065.72

Merchant Wholesalers

423

x 423 10 $12,911,000.00 203.712 $2,037,120.00 -$10,873,880.00 -$10,874,083.71

Total 10 $12,911,000.00 203.712 $2,037,120.00 -$10,873,880.00 -$10,874,083.71

Amusement, Gambling, and

Recreation Industries

713

x 713 20 $1,007,000.00 71.064 $1,421,280.00 $414,280.00 $414,208.94

Total 20 $1,007,000.00 71.064 $1,421,280.00 $414,280.00 $414,208.94

Social Assistance

624

25

Business name/Industry

Type

NAICS Code

Number of Jobs

Annual Sales (2013)


Expected Output



x 624 413 $12,160,000.00 43.668 $18,034,884.00 $5,874,884.00 $5,874,840.33

x 624 3 $313,000.00 43.668 $131,004.00 -$181,996.00 -$182,039.67

Total 416 $12,473,000.00 43.668 $18,165,888.00 $5,692,888.00 $5,692,844.33

26

Appendix B - Incidents in which OCFRD actively extinguished a fire (17)

Business name/Industry Type

Naics Code Number of Jobs Annual Sales (2013) Labor Productivity (Thousands)

Expected Output Marginal Difference Input

Industry Sales Without

Employment Simulation

Personal and Laundry Service

812

x 812 3 $129,000.00 50.451 $151,353.00 $22,353.00 $22,302.55

x 812 12 $964,000.00 50.451 $605,412.00 -$358,588.00 -$358,638.45

x 812 3 $148,000.00 50.451 $151,353.00 $3,353.00 $3,302.55

Total 18 $1,241,000.00 50.451 $908,118.00 -$332,882.00 -$332,932.45

Accommodation 721

x 721 11 $1,167,000.00 115.947 $1,275,417.00 $108,417.00 $108,301.05

x 721 35 $3,716,000.00 115.947 $4,058,145.00 $342,145.00 $342,029.05

x 721 2000 $212,359,000.00 115.947 $231,894,000.00 $19,535,000.00 $19,534,884.05

x 721 85 $9,025,000.00 115.947 $9,855,495.00 $830,495.00 $830,379.05

Total 2131 $226,267,000.00 115.947 $247,083,057.00 $20,816,057.00 $20,815,941.05

Real Estate 531

x 531 2 $376,000.00 691.953 $1,383,906.00 $1,007,906.00 $1,007,214.05

Total 2 $376,000.00 691.953 $1,383,906.00 $1,007,906.00 $1,007,214.05

Paper Manufacturing 322

x 322 100 $26,593,000.00 436.426 $43,642,600.00 $17,049,600.00 $17,049,163.57

Total 100 $26,593,000.00 436.426 $43,642,600.00 $17,049,600.00 $17,049,163.57

Food Service/Drinking Places

722

x 722 38 $2,138,000.00 53.339 $2,026,882.00 -$111,118.00 -$111,171.34

x 722 10 $562,000.00 53.339 $533,390.00 -$28,610.00 -$28,663.34

Total 48 $2,700,000.00 53.339 $2,560,272.00 -$139,728.00 -$139,781.34

Retail

x 44 6 $1,699,000.00 71.484 $428,904.00 -$1,270,096.00 -$1,270,167.48

x 44 2 $278,000.00 71.484 $142,968.00 -$135,032.00 -$135,103.48

27

Business name/Industry Type

Naics Code Number of Jobs Annual Sales (2013) Labor Productivity (Thousands)


Industry Sales Without

Employment Simulation

x 44 5 $3,286,000.00 $0.00 -$3,286,000.00 -$3,286,000.00

Total 13 $5,263,000.00 71.484 $929,292.00 -$4,333,708.00 -$4,333,779.48

Machinery Manufacturing

333

x 333 10 $3,305,000.00 265.72 $2,657,200.00 -$647,800.00 -$648,065.72

Total 10 $3,305,000.00 265.72 $2,657,200.00 -$647,800.00 -$648,065.72

Merchant Wholesalers 423

x 423 10 $12,911,000.00 203.712 $2,037,120.00 -$10,873,880.00 -$10,874,083.71

Total 10 $12,911,000.00 203.712 $2,037,120.00 -$10,873,880.00 -$10,874,083.71

Social Assistance 624

x 3 $313,000.00 43.668 $131,004.00 -$181,996.00 -$182,039.67

Total 3 $313,000.00 43.668 $131,004.00 -$181,996.00 -$182,039.67

28

Appendix C: Incidents in which OCFRD took other actions to ensure fire safety (11)

Business Name/Industry Type

Naics Code

Number of Jobs Annual Sales (2013)



Industry Sales Without Employment

Simulation

Retail x 44 1 $225,000.00 71.484 $71,484.00 -$153,516.00 -$153,587.48

x 44 12 $2,232,000.00 71.484 $857,808.00 -$1,374,192.00 -$1,374,263.48

x 44 45 $11,915,000.00 71.484 $3,216,780.00 -$8,698,220.00 -$8,698,291.48

Total 58 $14,372,000.00 $4,146,072.00 -$10,225,928.00 -$10,226,142.45

Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries

x 713 20 $1,007,000.00 71.064 $1,421,280.00 $414,280.00 $414,208.94

Total 20 $1,007,000.00 71.064 $1,421,280.00 $414,280.00 $414,208.94

Accommodation x 721 160 $15,690,000.00 115.947 $18,551,520.00 $2,861,520.00 $2,861,404.05

x 721 2000 $212,359,000.00 115.947 $231,894,000.00 $19,535,000.00 $19,534,884.05

x 721 769 $81,652,000.00 115.947 $89,163,243.00 $7,511,243.00 $7,511,127.05

x 721 14 $1,372,000.00 115.947 $1,623,258.00 $251,258.00 $251,142.05

x 721 29 $3,079,000.00 115.947 $3,362,463.00 $283,463.00 $283,347.05

Total 2972 $314,152,000.00 $344,594,484.00 $30,442,484.00 $30,441,904.27

Food Service/Drinking Places

x 722 35 $1,969,000.00 53.339 $1,866,865.00 -$102,135.00 -$102,188.34

Total 722 35 $1,969,000.00 53.339 $1,866,865.00 -$102,135.00 -$102,188.34

Social Assistance 624 x 624 413 $12,160,000.00 43.668 $18,034,884.00 $5,874,884.00 $5,874,840.33

Total 624 413 $5,874,884.00 $5,874,840.33

the economic impacts of successful orange county ... · fire chief otto drozd iii of the e county...

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