the economist - a lousy sequel

8/10/2019 The Economist - A Lousy Sequel

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FOR 16 years Anwar Ibrahim, leader of Malaysias opposition, has battled dodgy

charges of sodomy and corruption designed to keep him from power. One way or

another, a court hearing which began on October 28th looks like the end of the road.

As The Economist went to press Mr Anwar (pictured above, with his wife) was

reaching the conclusion of his final appeal against a five-year prison sentence,

imposed in March, for allegedly having sex with a male aide (sodomy is illegal in

Malaysia). It leaves Pakatan Rakyat, his three-party coalition, on shaky ground.

Mr Anwar has been here before. He was once the rising star of the United Malays

National Organisation (UMNO), which has governed Malaysia since independence in

1957. But a bust-up with Mahathir Mohamadthe prime minister for over two

decadessaw him dumped from the party in 1998 and convicted of sodomy soon

after. That conviction (though not another for corruption) was quashed in 2004, after

Mr Anwar had spent more than five years in jail. He has since fashioned the first

serious challenge to UMNO rule.

The latest case looks just as fishy as the first and began in 2008. The charges were

dismissed in 2012, but in March an appeal court overturned Mr Anwars acquittal.

That came just weeks before a by-election that would probably have enabled Mr

Anwar to become chief minister of Selangor, Malaysias richest state and a prime spot

from which to challenge Najib Razak, the prime minister, at general elections in 2018.

In the months leading up to his appeal, prosecutors have hounded opposition

politicians with charges of sedition and defamation. One of Mr Anwars lawyers is

among eight opposition politicians charged so far. So cynically political have sedition

charges against Pakatan politicians appeared that Malaysias usually docile lawyers

took to the streets in protest.

Mr Anwars conviction bars him from holding a political post for five years after his

sentence is served. Going back to jail would thus probably end the political career of

the 67-year-old, who as leader of Pakatan has enjoyed unprecedented success. Since

2008 the coalition has taken huge bites out of the dominance enjoyed by Barisan

Nasional, the ruling alliance headed by UMNO. At the general election in 2013

Pakatan won just over half the popular vote. But under Malaysias first-past-the-


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postand heavily gerrymanderedelectoral system, it got less than a majority of the

seats in Parliament.

For all its achievements, Pakatan is a fractious alliance. It groups Mr Anwars

Peoples Justice Party (PKR) with the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS), a devout

Muslim outfit, and the Democratic Action Party (DAP), a secular, ethnic-Chinese one.

Until now Mr Anwars charismaand his legal travailshave kept these parties

together despite their differences. But the divisions have widened.

For much of this year the coalition squabbled in unseemly fashion over who should

fill the plum post in Selangor, earmarked for Mr Anwar before his conviction rendered

him ineligible. PAS leaders torpedoed a plan to install Mr Anwars wife, Wan Azizah,

PKRs president and a respected politician in her own right. The imperious way in

which PKR had proposed this dynasticism raised hackles throughout Pakatan,

although some say the Islamists main worry was the prospect that a womanand a

relatively liberal one to bootmight one day run the coalition. After a six-month

stand-off and the intervention of the local sultan, the job of chief minister has gone to

Azmin Ali, Ms Azizahs deputy. But the childish infighting has dented Pakatans

image among voters, says Bridget Welsh, an academic.

PAS, the smallest party in the opposition coalition, is also its weakest link. It is

distracted by a struggle between progressive Muslims who predominate in its upper

ranks and conservatives in its grass roots. The party is growing more illiberal, notably

in a renewed push to toughensharia law in the northern state of Kelantan, its

heartland. Widespread criticism of the partys spoiling role in the Selangor crisis has

pushed PASs leader, Abdul Hadi Awang, closer to the conservatives, reckons Wan

Saiful of IDEAS Malaysia, a think-tank. Government barons would love to lure PAS

to their side.

Were he to remain free, Mr Anwar would continue to be the best person to ward off

these threats. But he is no longer quite as crucial to the opposition as he once was.

Though his coalition has made impressive gains, Mr Anwar has twice failed to lead it

to outright victory. He can still raise a crowd. On October 27th Malaysias oldest


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university appeared to cut the electricity to parts of its campus in order to discourage

students from attending a rally in his defence. But his story is less compelling to

young Malaysians than it was to those who heeded his first calls for change in 1998.

Another jail sentence would make a martyr of him; it would also give his partys

younger leaders a chance to shine.

In the PKR Mr Azmin is the most promising of them. He cut his teeth as Mr Anwars

private secretary during his years in government and has proven a loyal deputy. But

the capable 50-year-old can readily move out from his mentors shadow. Mr Azmin

has greater experience than either Nurul Izzah Anwar, Mr Anwars impressive

daughter, or Rafizi Ramli, a party strategist somewhat tarnished by the Selangordebacle. Healing the wounds in that state would help convince voters that Mr Azmin

could run the country competently.

As for the prime minister, his people like to push the line that he is a moderniser doing

away with his partys thuggish ways. Certainly, it is hard to see how Mr Anwars case

will benefit Mr Najib even if he thinks him deserving of punishment. He will want to

see the back of a case that is damaging the countrys reputation abroad. But it all

underscores how weak Mr Najibs position has become.

With a general election still four years away, the prime minister faces a threat from

within his own party, notably from conservative factions close to Dr Mahathir, who

still pulls strings from the wings. Whispers abound that an effort to unseat Mr Najib is

imminent. As always, the prime minister touts policies intended to get Malaysias

economy motoring. He has never looked less capable of carrying them out.

the economist - a lousy sequel

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