Wisam Khisro

Degree project for Master of Science (60 credits)with a major in Atmospheric Science

60 hec

Department of Biological and Environmental SciencesUniversity of Gothenburg

The Effect of Climate Changeon the Vegetation Cover

of the Mujib Nature Reserve– Dead Sea

Abstract

Climate change is one of the most important environmental issues that threaten the entire planet. It does not only affect the environment, but it also have economic, social and political aspects. This problem exacerbated day after day to become the main concern of experts and interested parties in the field.

However, nature reserves are considered as a successful way to conserve the vegetation cover, especially in arid regions. This helps to combat desertification, which is a product of land use and climate change. Hence, there is good reason for the selection of nature reserve in an arid region, the Mujib Nature Reserve-Dead Sea in the Middle East (Jordan), to study the effects of climate change on this type of fragile ecosystem. The Mujib nature reserve covers an area of 212 square kilometers.

This investigation conducted in the present thesis, statistically analyzed and discussed time series for climate data such as temperature, precipitation and, humidity, as well as, vegetation cover as represented by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The time series were analyzed for significant trends and relationships between NDVI and meteorological variables. The study period was 1983 to 2001. After examining the variables, it was found that there is a significant decrease in the rates of precipitation, with an increase of temperatures in conjunction with decline in the NDVI. In addition a sharp decline in wind speed and remarkable increase in the number of days of high humidity were noticed along the studied time period.Which pointed out that there is a particular link between these climatic variables and volatility and the decline of vegetation. Also, in spite of the topographic and climatic peculiarity of the study region, the results likely indicate the nature of climate change in the nearby countries characterized by arid climates, these include Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

Key words: Climate change, nature reserves, vegetation cover, NDVI, desertification, temperature, Jordan.

 

 

 

 

Table of Contents

1 Introduction................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 The climate and vegetation of Jordan.......................................................... 2 1.3 The nature conservation in Jordan............................................................... 4 1.4 Climate change ........................................................................................... 5

2 Rationale and Aim of the Study……………………………………….……………. 6

2.1 Research questions…………………………………………………………….. 6

2.2 Hypotheses……………………………………………………….………….… 7

3 Materials and Methods…………………………………………………………….… 7

3.1 Sources of Data………………………………………………………………. 7

3.2 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDV) Definition…….................... 8

4 Results…..………………………………………………………………………..….... 8

4.1 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)……………………………...9

4.2 Mean Precipitation……………………………………………...........................9

4.3 Precipitation and Normalized DifferenceVegetation Index (NDVI) ……..........11

4.4 Annual Mean Air Temperature (TMEAN)…………………………….…..........12

4.5 Daily Mean Maximum and Minimum Air Temperature(TMAX, TMIN)...........12

4.6 Cloud Cover……………………………………………………………………...12

4.7 Wind Speed………………………………………………………………………13

4.8 Average Number of Humid Days……..…………………………………...……..13

4.9 Mean Temperature and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)

Relationship…………………………………………………………………….…….14

5 Discussion……………………………………………………….……………….. ……14

5.1 Climate change and Vegetation cover……………………….............................14

5.2 Overgrazing…………………………………………………………………….....16

5.3 Vegetation types fragility …………………………………………………………17

5.4 Methodological limitations……………………………………………….….….…17

6 Conclusion………………………………………………………………………….……18

7 Acknowledgement……………………………………………………………….… 18

8 References………………………………………………………………………….. 19

 

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1 Introduction

1.1 Nature Conservations

One of the most important and classic instruments for nature conservation is to protect areas. According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) a protected area is an area of land or sea especially dedicated to protection and maintenance of biological diversity, of natural and associated cultural resources, and managed through legal or other effective means.

There are six categories according to the (IUCN)’s classification system (Burhenne-Guilmin 2011) (see Table 1-1). Protection can be classified according to the size of areas to be protected as large areas, medium areas or it can be applied e.g. on a particular type of plant (a single object). Those who work in the field of nature protection try to mitigate the loss or lack of flora and fauna in order to maintain biodiversity, which is essential for the sustainability of any ecosystem, and this is one of the major objectives of establishing nature reserves. Nevertheless, the benefits of protected areas are no longer limited to maintain flora and fauna from extinction only. It also contributes to the environmental stability and reduces floods and drought and protects soil quality. Recently, the interest of nature based tourism, especially ecotourism has increased strongly; because of the attractions many ecosystems offer. This kind of tourism promotes the sustainable development, and this is reflected in such a positive way on the economies of those countries that sponsor projects of nature reserves. In addition to maintaining ecosystems characteristics, these reasons show the importance of studying nature reserves and of examining factors that distort their ecological structures and functions. Climate change is one of the most important factors that play a major role in changing the characteristics of ecosystems, as it will be exemplified in this thesis with an area in Jordan.

Table 1. The IUCN categories of protected areas (Dudley 2008)

Classification Description

Ia CATEGORY Strict Nature Reserve: protected area managed mainly for science Ib CATEGORY Wilderness Area: protected area managed mainly for wilderness

protection II CATEGORY National Park: protected area managed mainly for ecosystem

protection and recreation III CATEGORY NaturalMonument: protected area managed mainly for conservation

of specific natural features IV CATEGORY Habitat/Species Management Area: protected area managed mainly

for conservation through management intervention V CATEGORY Protected Landscape/Seascape: protected area managed mainly for

landscape/seascape conservation and recreation VI CATEGORY Managed Resource Protected Area: protected area managed mainly

for the sustainable use of natural ecosystems

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1.2 The climate and vegetation of Jordan

Jordan is a Kingdom located in the Middle East to the northwest of Saudi Arabia, the south of Syria, the southwest of Iraq, and to the east of Israel and the Palestinian Authority. Its climate varies from Mediterranean in the west to desert in the east and south, thus the country is generally more or less arid. However, the proximity of the Mediterranean Sea has a major influence on its climate. The major characteristic of the country's climate is the contrast between hot, dry, uniform summers and cool variable winters. The rainy season is between October and May with 80 % of the annual rainfall occurring between December and March. (The third Jordanian report on UNCCD 2007). Jordan is a relatively small country in terms of area; but with great diversity in plants due to climate variations. There are four bioclimatic subdivisions in Jordan (Long 1957), (FAO1957), See Fig (1)

Mediterranean: This region is restricted to the highlands extending from Irbid in the north to Ras En-Naqab in the south. The altitude ranges from 700-1750 m above sea level. The rainfall ranges from 300-600 mm. The minimum annual temperature ranges from 5-10 º C. The soil type is dominated by the red Mediterranean soil (terra rossa) and the yellow Mediterranean soil (rendzina). This region comprises the most fertile part of the Kingdom and contains 90 percent of the population.

Irano-Turanian: A narrow strip of variable width that surrounds all the Mediterranean ecozone except in the north. It is characterized by being treeless. The vegetation is mainly small shrubs and bushes such as Artemisia herba-alba and Anabasis syriaca. Altitudes range from 500-700 m, and rainfall ranges from 150-300 mm. Mean annual minimum temperatures range from 5-2º C, and mean annual maxima range from 15-25º C. Calcareous, arid and semi-arid soils are more likely to be transported by wind. The vegetation is dominated by woody plant whose resting buds are on or near the ground named chamaeophytes.

Saharo-Arabian: This is the eastern desert or “Badia” and comprises almost 80% of Jordan. It is flat except for a few hills or small mountains, the result of volcanic eruptions. Altitude ranges between 500-700 m. The mean annual rainfall ranges from 50-200 mm, mean annual minimum temperatures range from 2-15º C. Soil is mostly poor in nutrients, either clay, saline, sandy or calcareous. Vegetation is dominated by small shrubs and small annuals in the valley beds.

Sudanian: It starts at the northern part of the Dead Sea and ends at the tip of the Gulf of Aqaba in the south along the Dead Sea depression and WadiAraba. The most important characteristic of this region is the altitude, including the lowest point on earth (396 m below sea level near the Dead Sea). Rainfall ranges from 50-100 mm, the mean annual minimum temperature ranges from 10-29º C, and mean annual maximum temperatures range from 20 to 35º C. Soils are mostly alluvial, saline, sandy and granitic. The only inland sand dunes of Jordan are in this region. The

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vegetation is characterized by Acacia sp. and Ziziphusspina-christi in addition to some shrubs and annual herbs. (Al-Jaloudy 2001)

Figure 1. Bioclimatic subdivisions in Jordan (Jaloudi 2001)

 

 

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1.3 Nature Conservation in Jordan

The Royal Society for the Conservation of Nature RSCN of Jordan is an independent non-profit non-governmental Organization devoteioned to the conservation of Jordan's natural resources, which was established in 1966 under the patronage of late king Hussein. Also,

RSCN aims to conserve the biodiversity of Jordan and to integrate its conservation programs with the socio-economic development and environment within Jordan and neighboring countries.

RSCN has been given the responsibility by the Government of Jordan to protect the natural heritage. Also, it has been given the task of creating jobs through eco-tourism, and other nature businesses. In addition to setting up and managing protected areas to safeguard Jordan’s natural environment and biodiversity, besides running captive breeding programs to save endangered species from extinction.

Mujib Reserve

The Mujib Reserve was established in 1985, at the rift valley next to the Dead Sea. It is located in two bio-geographical regions, the Irano-Turanian and the Sudanian and it measures about 212 square kilometers, which makes it the largest nature reserve in Jordan, and it stretches 24 kilometers from the shore of the Dead Sea. Its altitude ranges from 400 meters below sea level to 800 meters above sea level.

The Mujib Nature Reserve contains a rich biodiversity and a high density of species containing about 300 species of plants, an important objective of the reserve is to protect some unique kinds of plants such as orchids, palm trees but also the water sources inside the reserve. The Mujib Reserve is also an internationally important passage way for migratory birds.

The climate and vegetation cover of the reserve is divided into four communities, namely (Eisawi 2008):

i. Sudanian (with Saharo-Arabian) (15% of the total area)

ii. Saharo-Arabian (24% of the total area)

iii. Irano-Turanian (38% of the total area)

iv. Mediterranean transitional zone within Irano-Turanian (15% of the total area)

These communities have the following characteristics:

Mediterranean

The region in the Mujib reserve and stats at the Eastern boundaries of the reserve at an altitude ranging from 600-900 m a.s.l, However, the altitude ranges changes a little less when the microclimate conditions permit the Mediterranean elements to grow at other elevations,

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which is called Mediterranean penetration (Essawi 2008). Moreover, the annual rainfall is likely to exceed 250 mm in the Mediterranean community.

Irano-Turanian

Confined within the area ranging from 300-600 m above sea level, thus being dryer than the Mediterranean vegetation type this region has average rainfall ranging from 100-250 mm. The area has calcareous soils, andthe vegetation is dominated by small shrubs such as Retamaraetam (White Broom) and Astragalusspinosus (Astragal), the vegetation is mostly characterized by small, sparsely distributed bushes less than 50 cm tall. This vegetation type in the Mujib reserve is considered a typical Irano-Turanian region of Jordan.

Sudanian

Within the Irano-Turanian territory this region may start at an altitude of 400 m a.s.l as a penetration, although in general this typical tropical vegetation type region is encountered at an altitude of 200m above sea level down to (-400) m below sea level. Typical tropical vegetation is covered by tree and shrub plants such as Acacia (thorn tree) species. Like Salvadorapersica, Maeruacrassifolia.

Saharo-Arabian: The mean annual rainfall ranges from 50–200 mm, mean annual minimum temperatures range from 2–15 ºC. Soil is mostly poor, either clay, sandy or calcareous. Vegetation is dominated by small shrubs.

1.4 Climate change

“Climate change" means a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods (IPCC 2007). Some of the driving factors of climatic change operate at time scales of thousands to millions of years, whereas others fluctuate over a time period of only a few years (Harvey 2000).

Understanding how future climate change will affect species and ecosystems is crucial to conservation planning. The seriousness of climate impacts on species and ecosystems will depend on the nature and magnitude of the regional characteristics of climate change as well as regional ecological conditions (Harrison 2009), since the projected consequences of climate change varies over the globe .The relationship between climate change and vegetation is reciprocal, in the sense that high temperatures and low levels of rainfall affect the nature of the vegetation in both quantity and quality. On the other hand, the vegetation cover affects climate via alteration of the physical characteristics of the land surface, for example, albedo, roughness and regional air quality, but also from transpiration. In addition, vegetation decline negatively affects carbon sequestration (Brovkin 2002). Also, maintaining the vegetation helps to maintain the stability of the climate and helps to reduce the impact of global warming, on the basis that green spaces work as a carbon sink (Conner 2007). Arid ecosystems are the most vulnerable to loss of vegetation cover causing desertification

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(Dregne 1986) while climate change affects the whole world; the poorest people are expected to suffer the most according to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005). Many developing countries are situated in some of the most arid areas in the world, which may also refer to the lack of facilities to combat drought, in addition to human activities, poor management, overgrazing and several socio-economic factors such as poverty. However, protected areas are one of the efficient ways to make carbon locked in the vegetation cover; knowing that protected areas store 15 per cent of terrestrial carbon and supply ecosystem services (Campbell et al. 2008).These areas are protected in an orderly and planed manner by governmental institutions or NGO’s.

2. Rationale and Aim of the Study The rapid rate of deterioration in vegetation cover in arid regions is due to drought, climate change and other environmental and socioeconomic factors that cause desertification, e.g. over-grazing, hence the importance of studying these variables, given that the world’s soils hold more organic carbon than that held by theentire atmosphere as CO2 and vegetation combined (UNCCD2007). This study aims to highlight the behavior of climate variablesaccording to the data currently available as exemplified by a specific area in Jordan, and to analyze the relationship among them, as well as the analysis of the study findings to form a realistic picture of the impact of climate change in that region. Furthermore, it will try to give future indications for the mentioned arid regions, besides a discussion of overgrazing as an important factor in evaluating the process of vegetation change in these areas.

2.1 Research questions

● Is there decline in the vegetation index during the study period?

●Is any change in vegetation cover correlated with changes in meteorological variables?

●Are there any relationships among the climate parameters, observed during 1983-2001 and what type of relationships?

 

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2.2 Hypotheses

This study hypothesizes that there is a decrease in the level of rainfall and an increase in temperatures during the recent decades in the study area.

A second hypothesis was that climate variables such as temperature and rainfall have a direct impact on the vegetation cover, which negatively affects the diversity and abundance of this vegetation cover.

Finally, this study hypothesizes that the presence and protection of natural reserves reduces the deterioration and decline of the vegetation cover.

3. Materials and Methods

This study relied on a variety of information and data, mainly climate data from the Mujeb nature reserve in Jordan during the period 1983-2001. The climate data include: precipitation measured in mm/year, maximum and minimum air temperature measured in °C, humidity (expressed as number of humid days which are those with a relative humidity of more than 70%), wind speed measured in m/s and cloud cover measured in okta. In addition, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was empolyed to determine the density and change in the vegetation cover. Other information and data is related to the topography and vegetation diversity as expressed in the discription of the ecosystems in Mujib reserve. Also, this study used a map representing the bioclimatic subdivisions in Jordan to show the types of the vegetation. Excel and graphical representations were used beside some statistical determiners such as the regression and correlation factor to determine the behavior of the climatic factors over the past recent decades.

3.1 Sources of Data

The data sources of this study mainly taken from The Royal Society for the Conservation of Nature RSCN, which addressed the precise description of the characteristics of the study area which in turn deal with the Jordan Meteorological Department, and the Ministry of Agriculture of Jordan. As for the data concerning the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) taken from NASA and the U.S., space agency (Jee-Hoon Jeong, Department of Earth Sciences, the University of Gothenburg) has also been used with some experts in the field of the nature reservesby displays the data statistically and read their behavior and try to find a relationship linking to other climatic data. The specialists have also been in cooperation with the Royal Society for the Protection of Nature, so the study mainly relied on RSCN and on the figures and data of the region in which the study took place.Instruments used to measure the climatic variables at Jordan Metrological Department are anemometer for the wind speed, psychometer for relative humidity, standard rain gauge for precipitation, and thermometer for the temperature.

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3.2 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Definition

The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is a simple numerical indicator that can be used to analyze remote sensing measurements from space (EARSC). NDVI provides a crude estimate of vegetation density and a mean of monitoring changes in vegetation over time (Kidwell 1990). NDVI has many uses, including screening for drought and productivity of agricultural land and determining the density of the vegetation cover, by observing the distinct wavelengths of visible and near-infrared sunlight reflected by the plants (Weier and Herring 1999). When sunlight hit the land, some of the wavelengths of this spectrum are absorbed and other wavelengths are reflected. The pigment in plant leaves strongly absorbs certain wavelengths of visible light (from 0.4 to 0.7 µm) for use in photosynthesis. The possible range of NDVI values is between -1 and 1, but values less than zero is neglected, the typical range is about 0.1 to 0.6 (for an abundant vegetation cover area).

The cell structure of leaves reflects strongly near-infrared light from 0.7 to 1.1 µm (Kidwell 1990). Because free standing water as oceans, seas, lakes and rivers have low reflectance in both spectral bands. This results in very low positive or even slightly negative NDVI values; however, soils generally exhibit a near-infrared spectral reflectance larger than the red, and thus tend to generate small positive NDVI values between 0.1 to 0.2. NDVI is calculated by dividing the difference of two spectral reflectance values by the summation of them.

NDVI = (NIR - VIS)/(NIR + VIS)

Where

NIR = reflectance in the near-infrared wavelength band

VIS = reflectance in the visible light wavelength band

4. RESULTS

After performing all required calculations to analyzethe temporal variation of the climate NDVI and metrological variables (Precipitation, Mean Air Temperature, Cloud Cover, Wind Speed and Number of Humid Days) and knowing the effect of these parameters on the vegetation cover. All the figures shown below were made to indicatethe behavior of these parameters (yearly mean values) with the time at study period 1983-2001, and determined the linear regression between these parameters and year with correlation coefficient and statistical significance for these regression to detect any trends in the time series.

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Figure 2. Annual (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the period 1983-2001

4.1 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)

From Figure 2 it is noticeable that the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for the years 1983-1992 (N = 10) had a weak increasing trend during the first half of the study period and the year 1992 had the highest NDVI (0.178), while lowest NDVI was in year 1985 (0.132). The correlation coefficient NDVI was (R = 0.505) and the trend was marginally significant (P = 0.08). For thesecond part of the period, years 1992-2001 (N = 10) NDVI remarkably decreased, the year 1994 has the highest NDVI (0.207), while lowest NDVI (0.0932) was in year 2001.The correlation coefficient of NDVI with year during this part of the study period was (R = 0.885) and the trend was statistically marginally significant (P = 0.09).

4.2 Mean Precipitation

From figure 3 it is noticeable that the mean precipitation for the years 1983-1992 (N = 10) clearly increased. The year 1991 had the highest mean precipitation (53.2), while lowest value was in year 1987 (19.6). The correlation coefficient for precipitation versus year was (R = 0.556) and the trend was marginally significant (P = 0.073). For the years 1992-2001 (N = 10) has remarkably decreased, the year 1994 has the highest precipitation (43.2), while lowest precipitation was in year 1995 (10.3). The correlation coefficient precipitation was (R =

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0.453) and the trend was marginally significant (P = 0.061). The general pattern of precipitation was similar to that of NDVI, but the year-to-year variation of mean precipitation was larger for precipitation than for NDVI.

Figure 3. Mean Precipitation for the period 1983-2001

Figure 4. Annually Mean Precipitation with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI).

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4.3 Precipitation and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Relationship

From Figure 4 it is noticeable that the relationship between and NDVI and precipitation behaves logically ,there was an indication of a positive relationship between the NDVI and precipitation , it can be notice that when the Precipitation value had decrease the NDVI is decreasing and versa verse when the Precipitation is increasing the NDVI value increased. The correlation coefficient (R = 0.478), the trend was marginally significant (P = 0.091)

4.4 Annual Mean Air Temperature (TMEAN)

Figure 5. Annual Mean Air Temperature for the period 1983-2001

From Figure 5 it is noticeable that the annual mean temperature for the years 1983-2001 (N = 19) has remarkably increased. The 1999 has the highest temperature mean (17.6 °C), while the lowest mean was in year 1992 (14.8 °C). The correlation coefficient annual mean temperature was (R = 0.682). The trend was statistically significant (P = 0.05).

4.5 Daily Mean Maximum and Minimum Air Temperature (TMAX, TMIN)

From figure 6 it is noticeable that the daily mean maximum temperature for the years 1983-2001 (N = 19) has noticeably increased. The 1997 has the highest temperature mean (23.0 °C), while the lowest mean was in year 1992 (20.4). The correlation coefficient daily mean maximum temperature was (R = 0.585). The trend was none significant (P = 0.848). Also it is noticeably that the daily mean minimum temperature for the years 1983-2001 (N = 19) has

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not increased. The 1996 has the highest temperature mean (10.6 °C), while the lowest mean was in year 1992 (9.21). The correlation coefficient for the annual mean temperature was R = 0.409 and was not significant (P = 0.752).

Figure 6. Daily Mean Maximum and Minimum Air Temperature (TMAX, TMIN) for the period 1983-2001

Figure 7. Average Cloud Cover for period 1983-2001

4.6 Cloud Cover

Form figure 7 it is obvious that the mean cloud cover for the 1983-2003 had no trend. The year 1991 had the highest cloud mean (2.15 okta), while lowest means was in year 1989 (1.4 okta). The correlation coefficient between mean cloud cover and year was (R = 0.0469) and the relationship versus time was not significant (P = 0.972).

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Figure 8. Average Wind Speed for the period 1983-2001

4.7 Wind Speed

From Figure 8 it can be inferred that the wind speed did show a negative trend during the period 1983-2001. The year 1990 had the highest annual mean wind speed (5.18 m/s), while the lowest mean was in the year 1998 (1.73 m/s). The correlation coefficient between annual mean of the wind speed and time was (R = 0.576) and the relationship was statistically significant (P = 0.008).

Figure 9. Monthly Average Number of Humid Days per year for the period 1983-2001

4.8 Number of Humid Days

From Figure 9 it can be inferred that the annual number of humid days for the years 1983-2001 has a moderate significant increasing trend (P = 0.017). The year 1992 had the highest number of humid mean days (8.92), while lowest means was in a year 2001 (2.75). The

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correlation coefficient (R) between number of humid days and time was 0.346 and the increase with time was statistically significant (P = 0.017).

Figure 10. Annually Mean Air Temperature with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI).

4.9 Mean Temperature and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Relationship

From figure 10 it is noticeable that the NDVI versus Annually Mean Air Temperature was negative with a correlation coefficient (R) 0.594 and clearly, statistical significant (P = 0.007). It is noted that data were concentrated between (16.0 °C) to (16.5 °C).

5. Discussion

5.1 Climate Change and Vegetation Cover

There are many reasons for desertification, some could be natural and some human, and these reasons might interact negatively to cause bigger problems, like population growth for instance in barren areas, which leads to draining of natural resources for the sake of trading, grazing and horizontal expansion of the population at the expense of cultivable areas along with other erosion factors (Safarini 2002).

The problem of desertification in the Middle East countries is potentially very large. The greatest risk of desertification, 7.6 out of 10 on a scale produced using various desertification indicators, is in the subtropical desert regions – North Africa, the countries of the Middle East, Australia, South West China and the western edge of South America (Núñez 2010). The

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elevated risk in this region is partly due to the nature conditions, since these regions are mostly more or less arid, and the amount of vegetation is scarce.

Results gained from the study site by NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), indicates a clear reduction in the density and distribution of vegetation since the beginning of the 1990's and towards the end of the study period (Figure 11) after the rise of the index during the 1980's. The results were in line and complying with the findings of a report of FAO conference 2002 that Jordan and the surrounding countries such as Iraq and Syria generally witnessed in the 1990s a decline in agricultural productions a result of successive droughts. (Tehran Process for Low Cover Forest Countries 2002)

The behavior of the climatic factors such as, humidity, precipitation, and temperature, over the study period and the test of the relationship of climatic factors on vegetation cover as represented by NDVI, that the increased temperature had the strongest impact amongst other climatic factors that the research have examined on the deterioration of the vegetation cover. On the other hand the increasing temperatures came in conjunction with increased humidity, which indicates an expectable result at this point taking into consideration the region's nature. Remarkably, wind speed decreased steadily during the time of the study. When the precipitation began to decrease in the 1990’s the vegetation started to deteriorate, which explains the decline in NDVI during this time period. When studying the relations of the climatic factors it was discovered that temperature is directly proportional with time, on the contrary of the amount of precipitation, which was decreasing since the beginning of the1990’s. Moreover, all the factors, which were submitted to statistical operations, were in the beginning of the 1990’s, which was a turning point at that time to radical changes in vegetation cover and a clear change in climatic factors.

Jordan is not considered as a major contributor to the problem of climate change, and it is not among the first ten Arab countries producing greenhouse gases (Michel 2009). Nevertheless, the problem of global warming has a global impact that makes Jordan and all countries in the region under its effect.

However, when studying and analyzing the effect of climatic factors, there was a statistical relationship between the decline of vegetation and increasing temperatures. On the other hand, the statistical results came in line with the Second International report issued by the Jordanian government submitted to the United Nations framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC) 2009. According to the same report a long-term study involving 19 stations all over Jordan from (1961-2005), it was shown that both maximum and minimum temperature time series in the selected 19 meteorological stations had significant increasing trends. This is partially in line with the results of the present study, whereas the results of the report came in accordance with increasing annual maximum temperatures in the study. Increasing trends in the annual maximum temperature range between 0.3°C and 1.8°C, while The increasing trends in the annual minimum temperature range between 0.4°C and 2.8°C, which are obviously greater than maximum temperature trends .There is also a decrease in precipitation in the majority of metrological stations over 45 years. In addition, the report

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pointed out that the above results will have negative impacts on agriculture, health and water sectors.

5.2 Overgrazing

Overgrazing is considered as one of the most pressurizing practices on the vegetation cover of the Mujib reserve, this vegetation cover is palatable to digest by the livestock. Nevertheless, the vegetation cover of the Mujib reserve is the only source to the owners of livestock, since it is difficult to graze in the residential areas and the reserves’ surroundings of agricultural areas. The study of the carrying capacity of the biosphere of Mujib reserve showed a lack of productivity, as it presented that the productivity of one ha does not surpass 1000-1400 grams of edible fodder (Mahfuz 2010). This has a bad influence on the natural regeneration, besides the economic income of the grazed areas and the users of the area of livestock owners.

There is no doubt that the activities of overgrazing have a bad effect on the vegetation cover. These can lead to extinction of some species and deterioration of many more, which may cause a deterioration of the conditions for animal species that are connected to the extinct plants, or substitute species with new ones, and thus influence the ecological balance. The population of the Mujib reserve and its surroundings is about 30000. These people have a direct connection to the reserve, and the latter three decades have witnessed a great development of their civil society, which lead into a huge change in their lives. It has transferred them from wandering shepherds and residents of tents to the fastness of cement houses. This change was convoyed by the development of the infrastructure, like water and electricity and paving of the streets. In addition, access to schools and hospitals became easy for them; hence these revolutionary changes had an enormous impact on the lifestyle of these communities and on many levels. Before 1958 for instance, the shepherds never settled in one area for more than 15 days to graze, they would then move to other areas, thus would protect the pastures from overgrazing. However today, they stay for as long as three months, which negatively influences the productivity and renewal of the grazing lands.

There is a relationship between grazing on the one hand and precipitation decrease and temperature increase on the other hand, since they reinforce each other. Whereas precipitation decrease had a negative impact on the vegetation cover, which is already scarce and this in turn affects the numbers and distribution of livestock in the region. On the other side, overgrazing has a very negative effect in arid areas, especially the study region, knowing that the vegetation cover of that region is very weak and fragile that the soil is more likely to lose its characteristics down to erosion. Moreover, in addition to precipitation decrease and temperature increase, overgrazing is significant in explaining the decrease of the vegetation index.

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5.3 Vegetation types fragility

All areas (east and south of Jordan) receiving an annual precipitation less than 350 mm are vulnerable to climate change (Said Damhoureyeh, University of Jordan). Since these areas are stressed under recurrent drought and over exploitation, this could lead to irremediable vegetation loss. Jordan climate is arid Mediterranean, so any change that will result in less water and warmer weather will have a great impact. Most of the rangelands in the irano-turranian region will be most fragile, similar to the Wadiaraba. However, the mountain areas will be less affected, but will be affected, since they are already receiving low precipitation and have low vegetation (Said Damhoureyeh, University of Jordan).

5.4 Methodological limitations

The research has faced many obstacles in different stages. To begin with, the collection of information and data caused administrative and bureaucratic problems, for example, obtaining information regarding overgrazing from the Ministry of Agriculture requires administrative approvals. In the same context, the data was not on the level of ambition, in terms of quantity and quality, it was hoped that the study would cover larger samples, which would increase the scientific accuracy of the results. This limited sample size would weaken the ability of statistical tools to extrapolate the results into the future. On the other hand, there were few researches on climate change and its impact on the vegetation of the region for which the study was made, besides the lack of scientific research on the issue of global warming in Middle East in general.

6. CONCLUSIONS

The most important conclusions from this study were:

There is a relationship between climate and vegetation, in the sense that high temperature and low levels of rainfall affect the abundant of the vegetation cover.

There was a decrease in precipitation in the second half of the study time period.

In general, there was an increase in temperatures especially in the recent years covered by the study.

There was a decrease in (NDVI) for that region concurrent with temperature increase and precipitation decrease.

Overgrazing has a negative impact on vegetation cover in the Mujib reserve and in combination with an altered climate this could lead to desertification what means the loss of its biodiversity and its economic and tourist significance.

There was a remarkable decrease in wind speed along the study.

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Acknowledgement

I am highly indebted and grateful to my supervisor Prof. Håkan Plejel, for his continued support and patience to complete my project. Special thanks to Dr .Jee-HoonJeong,Earth Science Department , the University Gothenburg – Sweden. I wish to thank also The Royal Society for the Conservation of Nature (RSCN)- Jordan specially Eng . Enas Sakkijha the Head of Research & Survey Section, Ehab Eid the Project Manager , Hussien M. Kisswani , National Climate Change Officer from Climate Change Unit, Dr. Mahfouz Abu-Zanat ,Department of Animal Production University of Jordan and Said Damoureyeh, Biology Department at the University of Jordan. Also, Dr. Salam Bash AlMaliky , AlMustansiriya University -Iraq , Ohio University –USA , Eng. ShukriNamer ,Koya University –Iraq. Furthermore, I wish to express my gratitude towards my parents and my family how I would like to extend my sincere thanks to all of them for their encouragement, assistant installing my confidence to complete the project. At last but not the least I want to thank my friends who motivated me.

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