the electricity technology transformation

The Electricity Technology Transformation

Barbara Tyran

Director, Washington Relations

Center for Energy Workforce Development

October 9, 2009

2© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Our Mission…

To conduct research onkey issues facing the

electricity sector…on behalf of its members, energy

stakeholders, and society.


Our Members…

• 450+ participants in more than 40 countries

• EPRI members generate more than 90% of the electricity in the United States

• International funding of more than 15% of EPRI’s research, development and demonstrations

• Programs funded by more than 1,000 energy organizations


BasicBasicResearchResearch

andandDevelopmentDevelopment

TechnologyTechnologyCommercializationCommercialization

CollaborativeCollaborativeTechnologyTechnology

DevelopmentDevelopmentIntegrationIntegrationApplicationApplication

National Laboratories

Universities

Suppliers

Vendors

EPRI

Help Move Technologies to the Commercialization Stage…

Our Role…

Technology Accelerator!


Presentation Overview

The Technology ChallengeDe-carbonize the electricity infrastructure and meet binding economy-wide CO2 reduction targets

Provide reliable, affordable, and environmentally responsible electricity


Wh

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Emissions Intensity (metric tons CO2 /MWh)

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De-Carbonization

2020

2050

The Technology Challenge

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Presentation Overview


Meeting The Challenge

Decisions Over the Next Decade will

Shape the Electricity Future of 2050

De-carbonize the electricity infrastructure and meet binding economy-wide CO2 reduction targets

Provide reliable, affordable, and environmentally responsible electricity

Technically feasible with a full portfolio of generation options


The CO2 ChallengeB

illio

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on

s C

O2

Historical Emissions

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8

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

U.S. Electric Sector

Remainder of U.S.

Economy

83% Reduction in CO2

emissions from 2005

Assumed Economy-wide CO2 Reduction Target

2005 = 5982 mmT CO2

2012 = 3% below 2005 (5803 mmT CO2)

2020 = 17% below 2005 (4965 mmT CO2)

2030 = 42% below 2005 (3470 mmT CO2)

2050 = 83% below 2005 (1017 mmT CO2)


1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Cen

ts/k

Wh

(in

200

7 ce

nts

)The Cost Challenge

Flat real electricity prices for past 40 years… what about the next 40 years?

U.S. Retail Price of Electricity

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Meeting the Challenge

The Electricity Technology Challenge


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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

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2007

2008

2009

U. S. Electric Sector CO2 Emissions

EIA Base Case


2009 Prism

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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

U.S

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Efficiency

Renewables

Nuclear

41% reduction in 2030 from 2005 level is technically feasible using a full portfolio of electric sector

technologies

41%CCS

Fossil Efficiency

Technology EIA Base Case EPRI Prism Target

Efficiency Load Growth ~ +0.95%/yr

8% Additional Consumption Reduction by 2030

T&D Efficiency None 20% Reduction in T&D Losses by 2030

Renewables

60 GWe by 2030 135 GWe by 2030 (15% of generation)

Nuclear12.5 GWe New Build by 2030

No Retirements; 10 GWe New Build by 2020; 64 GWe New Build by 2030

FossilEfficiency

40% New Coal,

54% New NGCCs by

2030

+3% Efficiency for 75 GWe Existing Fleet

49% New Coal; 70% New NGCCs by 2030

CCS None90% Capture for New Coal + NGCC

After 2020Retrofits for 60 GWe Existing Fleet


2009 Prism – PEV and Electro-Technologies

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(mil

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Efficiency

Renewables

Nuclear

CCS

Fossil Efficiency

Technology EIA AEO Base Case EPRI Prism Target

Electric Transportatio

nNone

PHEVs by 201040% New Vehicle Share by 2025

3x Current Non-Road Use by 2030

Electro-technologies None Replace ~4.5% Direct Fossil Use

by 2030

Low-carbon generation enables electrification and CO2 reductions in other

sectors of economy

Electro-Technologies

PEV


Generation by Fuel Source in 2030

EIA 20304669 TWh

Prism 20304888 TWh

Prism 60% no- or low-carbon electricity by 2030

Coal

CoalNuclear

Nuclear

GasGas

Renw

Renw

C+CCS

50%

17%

19%

6%

7%

1%

Coal

Coal CCS

Petroleum

Gas

Gas CCS

Nuclear

Hydro

Renewables

28%

10%

11%2%

28%

6%

15%

What if we LIMIT the Generation PORTFOLIO?

What if we LIMIT the Generation PORTFOLIO?


Technology Portfolios

Full Portfolio

Coal and Gas CCS available

Accelerated end-use efficiency

PEV’s can expand

Nuclear production can expand

Full Portfolio

Coal and Gas CCS available

Accelerated end-use efficiency

PEV’s can expand

Nuclear production can expand

Limited PortfolioNo CO2 capture and storage (CCS)

No plug-in electric vehicles (PEV’s)

Nuclear generation remains at existing levels

Limited PortfolioNo CO2 capture and storage (CCS)

No plug-in electric vehicles (PEV’s)

Nuclear generation remains at existing levels


MERGE Economic Model

Optimization Model of Economic Activity and Energy Use through 2050 – Maximize Economic Wealth

Inputs– Energy Supply Technologies and Costs

for Electric Generation and Non-Electric Energy

Constraints– Greenhouse Gas Control Scenarios– Energy Resources

Outputs– Economy-wide Impact of Technology and

Carbon Constraints


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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Tri

llio

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Wh

pe

r y

ea

rMERGE U.S. Electric Generation Mix

Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

Coal

Gas

Wind

Demand Reduction

New Coal + CCSCoal

Gas

WindNuclear

Demand Reduction

Nuclear

Solar

Biomass

Hydro

CCS Retrofit

Biomass

Hydro

Generation Mix Generation Mix

Aggressive Energy Efficiency Needed with Either Portfolio

52% Increase in Demand Reduction with Limited Portfolio


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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Tri

llio

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pe

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ea

rMERGE U.S. Electric Generation Mix

Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

Coal

Gas

Wind

Demand Reduction

New Coal + CCSCoal

Gas

WindNuclear

Demand Reduction

Nuclear

Solar

Biomass

Hydro

CCS Retrofit

Biomass

Hydro


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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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pe

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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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Insights - Renewables

Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

Coal

Gas

Wind

Demand Reduction

New Coal + CCSCoal

Gas

WindNuclear

Demand Reduction

Nuclear

Solar

Biomass

Hydro

CCS Retrofit

Biomass

Hydro

> 20% Renewables by 2030 with Either Portfolio

> 50% Renewables by 2050 with Limited Portfolio


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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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Insights – Nuclear and CCS

Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

Coal

Gas

Wind

Demand Reduction

New Coal + CCSCoal

Gas

WindNuclear

Demand Reduction

Nuclear

Solar

Biomass

Hydro

CCS Retrofit

Biomass

Hydro

Gas Expands Rapidly 2010-2020 if Uncertainty Exists

Regarding Availability of New Nuclear and CCS post 2020

Limited Portfolio – Gas Consumption Increases 275% from 2010 to 2050


Wind

Biomass

Nuclear

Gas

Hydro

Coal CCSRetrofit

Wind

Biomass

Nuclear

Gas

Coal

Hydro

Coal + CCS

Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio

Remarkably different futures…and only 20 years away!

2030 Generation Mix


Wind

Biomass

Nuclear

Gas

Hydro

Solar

Wind

Biomass

Nuclear

Gas

Hydro

Coal + CCS

Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio

Totally different futures in 2050

2050 Generation Mix


MERGE Wholesale Electricity Cost Results

2007 U.S. Average Wholesale Electricity Cost

Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

$/M

wh

(20

07$

)

2020 2030 2040 2050

Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

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210%

80%


Substantial increases in the cost of electricity

2050


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De-Carbonization

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MERGE De-carbonization Results

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MERGE Projections 2020-2050

2020 2030

2040

205020202030

2040

2050

Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio


Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

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De-Carbonization

20202030

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20502020

2030

2040

2050

MERGE De-carbonization Results

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2020 2030

2040

205020202030

2040

2050

Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

High Cost to meet 2050 Reduction Target with >80% Generation Mix

Gas and Renewables




The Electricity Technology Challenge




Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

$/M

wh

(20

07$

)

2020 2030 2040 2050


Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

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Technology Actions Based on Meeting the Prism Technology Targets

Technology Innovation to De-carbonize While Achieving a Cost of Electricity Near

Today’s Level

RD&D and Deployment Challenge

Innovation Challenge


Power Delivery & Utilization: energy demand is increasing…

• 2008 Annual Energy Outlook -

– 30% increase in U.S. electricity consumption by 2030.

– New load equivalent to 2006 electricity usage in California, Texas, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvaniacombined!


Bringing it home…Consumer Electronics

PLASMA TV SET TOP BOX

42”250W

30Wvs.

27”100W

Consumes 2.5x more energy

30W

==

2 set top boxes consume as much energy in one year as a

refrigerator


Bringing the picture into focus…

Digital Photo Frames1 per U.S. home…

250 MW Power Plants*

*250 MW plant can serve 160,000 full homes


EPRI’s Living LaboratoryRecently Featured in TIME


Smart Grid

• We are in the infancy in developing a smart grid

• Smart grid can mean different things to different utilities

• No standards for inclusive technologies

• Smart capabilities vary from utility to utility

State of the technology…


Smart Grid

• Smart power delivery infrastructure encompassing physical power, storage, advanced information technology and intelligent sensors and applications

• Numerous impacts

– Reliable grid operations when connecting to renewable resources

– Dynamic grid adjustment to reduce losses and increase efficiency

– On-line assessment to minimize reliability events

Where we want to be…


Identifying a smart grid and how to create it…• Methodology, technology tools, and standards recommendations

• Information systems to support smart grid

applications

• Unbiased testing of technologies and products

• Development of communications architecture that will enable interoperability

IntelliGrid


EfficientBuildingSystems

UtilityCommunications

DynamicSystemsControl

DataManagement

DistributionOperations

DistributedGeneration& Storage

Plug-In Hybrids

SmartEnd-UseDevices

AdvancedMetering

Consumer Portal& Building EMS

Internet Renewables

PV

Smart Grids and Local Energy Networks

ControlInterface





DataManagement



Plug-In Hybrids

SmartEnd-UseDevices

AdvancedMetering


Internet Renewables

PV

Smart Grids and Local Energy Networks

ControlInterface


Electric Transportation




DataManagement



Plug-In Hybrids

SmartEnd-UseDevices

ControlInterface

AdvancedMetering


Internet Renewables

PV

• PHEV technology is ready now

• Hybrids remain dependent on combustible fuels

• Existing challenges remain for fully electric vehicles

• All electric PHEV 40 mile range could meet the transportation requirements for 80% of vehicles

• Widespread adoption of PHEVs can reduce GHG emissions by 2050 the equivalent to removing 82.5 million passenger cars from the road

State of the technology…


Action Framework… Four Evolving Infrastructures

Creating the Electricity Network of the Future


Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

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De-Carbonization

20202030

2040

20502020

2030

2040

2050

Conclusion

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2020 2030

2040

205020202030

2040

2050

Limited Portfolio

Full Portfolio

Electricity policy and technology actions over the next decade will to a great extent

shape the electricity future of 2050

Which Future Are You Creating?

the electricity technology transformation

Documents

electric sectorremainder

electric sector co2

epris research

electricity infrastructure

electricity future

missionto conduct research

electricity sectoron

retail price of electricity