the emerging maritime arctic - office of coast survey · lawson w. brigham, phd professor,...
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Lawson W. Brigham, PhD Professor, University of Alaska Fairbanks HSRP Member & Captain, USCG (Ret.)
The Emerging Maritime Arctic
NOAA Hydrographic Services Review Panel Arctic Webinar Long Beach, CA ~ April 9, 2015
U.S. National Strategy for the Arctic Region ~ 10 May 2013
•Under 2. Line of Effort: Pursue Responsible Arctic Region Stewardship --Chart the Arctic region: (A) Make progress in charting and mapping the Arctic region’s ocean & waterways; mapping coastal & interior lands with reliable/modern standards. (B) Prioritize & synchronize charting efforts (more effective resource use & attain faster progress); (C) Make navigation safer & ID ecologically sensitive areas & reserves of natural resources.
Chart the Arctic Region: Lead: DOC/NOAA; Supporting:
DOD, DHS/USCG, DOI, DOS and DOT. • Objective: Coordinate surveying, mapping & charting U.S. Arctic
waters, hydrography, shorelines & topography • Next Steps: --Complete acquisition of U.S. Arctic elevation data & geoid model development --Transition to Arctic water level gauge operations --Increase public access to existing Arctic mapping data sets --Increase % of Bering Strait surveyed & charted (for future IMO routing /rules) --Increase % of potential U.S. Arctic deep draft ports & harbors of refuge
surveyed & charted -- Increase % of U.S. Arctic with comprehensive topographic mapping products.
Implementation Plan for the National Strategy for the Arctic Region ~ January 2014
Today’s Arctic Commercial Marine Use
Future High Grade Iron Ore Mine ??
•Hard Minerals •Marine Tourism •Key Fisheries •Oil & Gas •Summer Sealift •Exploration & Summer NSR
Zinc & Coal
Nickel & Copper
• 1993 ~ IMO Outside Working Group • 1998 ~ Draft Polar Code to IMO • 2002 ~ IMO Guidelines for Ships Operating in Arctic Ice-
covered Waters • 2004-09 ~ Arctic Council’s Arctic Marine Shipping
Assessment (Arctic States Call for Mandatory Application of Guidelines & Augmentation of IMO Conventions)
• 2006-08 ~ Draft IACS Unified Requirements for Polar Class Ships Adopted
• 2009 ~ IMO Guidelines Updated to Polar Waters • 2010 ~ IMO Working Group on Mandatory Requirements • 2014 ~ IMO MSC Approves Draft SOLAS Amendments • 2017 (1 January) ~ Polar Code in Force
Development of the IMO Polar Code
• Polar Ship’s Structural Standards
• Marine Safety and Lifesaving Equipment
• Training & Experience Aboard Polar Ships
• Polar Ship Certificate
• Polar Waters Operations Manual
Summary: Marine Safety ~ SOLAS & STCW Amendments in the Polar Code
• Annex I : Oil & Oily Mixtures (zero discharge)
• Annex II : Noxious Liquid Substances (zero discharge)
• Annex IV : Sewage
• Annex V : Food waste/garbage
• Waiting for Ballast Water Management Convention
Summary: Environmental Protection ~ MARPOL Amendments in the Polar Code
• Completed 31 January 2015 • Grant from the State of Alaska Department of
Commerce, Community & Economic Development • International Workshop held 6-7 November 2014 • Report Sections on the U.S. Maritime Arctic: --Sea Ice Changes; Marine Traffic; NSR & NWP Developments;
Projected Impact of Arctic Offshore Hydrocarbon Development; Arctic Infrastructure Issues; Alaskan Arctic Maritime Workforce Potential
--Major Findings of the Study & International Workshop; and, Project Recommendations
UAF Study ~ Alaska & the New Maritime Arctic
(1) Arctic Natural Resource Development ~ primary driver of
Arctic marine transportation (consistent with AMSA).
(2) Arctic Shipping Routes ~ unlikely to revolutionize the global shipping routes; seasonal supplements to existing routes.
(3) AMSA 17 Recommendations compare favorably with U.S. National Strategy for the Arctic Region themes & key issues.
(4) IMO Mandatory Polar Code ~ Arctic-specific rules & regulations
for the U.S. maritime Arctic; in force 1 January 2017. (5) Maximum winter Bering Sea ice edge has not changed much in 5
decades; earlier seasons of navigation in spring not anticipated.
Major Findings of the Study
unstable & ad-hoc
stable & rules-based
less demand
more demand
Arctic Race Arctic Saga
Polar Lows Polar Preserve
GOVERNANCE
RES
OU
RC
ES
&
TR
AD
E High demand and unstable governance set the stage for an economic ‘rush’ for Arctic wealth and resources.
High demand and stable governance lead to a healthy rate of development, includes concern for preservation of Arctic ecosystems & cultures.
Low demand and unstable governance bring a murky and under-developed future for the Arctic.
Low demand & stable governance slow development in the region while introducing an extensive eco-preserve with stringent “no-shipping zones”.
AMSA/GBN Scenarios Workshops ~ April & July 2007 The Future of Arctic Marine Navigation in 2050
Scenarios on the Future of Arctic Marine Navigation in 2050
(6) Minimum Arctic sea ice extent has retreated dramatically in 5
decades; anticipated longer autumn operational seasons for offshore drilling & coastal resupply.
(7) Highly seasonal marine traffic in the Bering Strait Region: no
traffic Dec to May; key commercial traffic June to Nov; direct correlation to regional sea ice cover.
(8) Offshore hydrocarbon activity ~ most significant factor in
increases in marine operations in the U.S. maritime Arctic for the next several decades; by 2025 in Chukchi Sea could plausibly have 100 support vessels (assuming 8 platforms)
(9) Hydrography & charting in the U.S. maritime Arctic ~ critical to
safe navigation & facilitating coastal development of ports.
Major Findings ~ Continued
Maritime Traffic -- Bering
Strait Region & NW Alaska 1 January to 31 May 2013 Marine Exchange of Alaska
Maritime Traffic -- Bering Strait Region & NW Alaska 1 June to
30 November 2013 Marine Exchange of Alaska
(10) Arctic port in western Alaska ~ key to regional development;
must be linked to natural resources exports & servicing the offshore hydrocarbon industry.
(11) Seasonal increase in marine traffic along the NSR; no indicators that large numbers of commercial ships will use the NWP.
(12) Key U.S. maritime Arctic infrastructure needs: hydrography & charting; Arctic observing networks; marine domain awareness; Alaska deepwater port; SAR & environmental response capacity; polar & coastal icebreaking capacity; defined Arctic transportation corridors.
Major Findings ~ Continued
Arctic Ministers’ Approval 29 April 2009 ~ Negotiated Text
Table of Contents • Executive Summary with Recommendations
• Arctic Marine Geography Climate & Sea Ice
• History
• Governance
• Current Use/Database
• Scenarios to 2020 & 2050
• Human Dimensions
• Environmental Impacts
● Infrastructure
www.pame.is
Enhancing Arctic Marine
Safety
Protecting Arctic People
and the Environment
Building the Arctic Marine Infrastructure
Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment Recommednations (17) ~ THEMES