the end of strategic stability? nuclear weapons and … · •how regional rivals understand...
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THE END OF STRATEGIC
STABILITY? NUCLEAR
WEAPONS AND THE
CHALLENGE OF
REGIONAL RIVALRIES
L A W R E N C E R U B I N A N D A D A M N . S T U L B E R G
S A M N U N N S C H O O L O F I N T E R N A T I O N A L A F F A I R S ,
G E O R G I A I N S T I T U T E O F T E C H N O L O G Y
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Book Examines
• How regional rivals understand strategic stability
• How these understandings of strategic stability affect arms-racing, posture, and doctrine
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Why Strategic Stability Should Be Refined
• The way the US understands it is not the way others do
• The post-Cold War environment is multidimensional and multipolar
• Strategic Stability means different things in different contexts to different actors but it remains important
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Tailored Strategic Stability
• A framework rooted in basic tenets not solely focused on the nuclear dimension as the organizing principle
• Incorporates the idea that national strategies are motivated by different understandings of strategic stability and deterrence
• A set of conditions under which regional rivals have no incentive to pursue unilateral advantage by a devastating first strike and mutual fears give pause to demonstrate restraint
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Findings Highlight Future Directions
• How non-state actors matter
• How transparency matters
• Distinguishing between global vs. regional concepts
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Beyond a Complex Number Problem
• Asymmetries
• Interdependencies
• Subjective interpretations
• Diversity of practical meaning
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Cross-cutting Conceptual Distinctions
• Nuclear as Absolute Weapon/Existential Threat
– Incontestability of costs?
• National Core Values/Fears
– Reciprocal fear of first nuclear use?
• Parity
– Nuclear-centric assured destruction?
• Interdependence Across Multiple Domains/Relationships
– Balance/attributes of state power?
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Implications for U.S. Strategy
• Distinguish Russia/China vs. Regional Requirements
• Direct
– Entanglement
– Regional vs. strategic contradictions
• Indirect
– Extended deterrence vs. moral hazard problems
– Different escalation pathways/fulcrums
• Europe- hybrid-/sub-/low-level conventional warfare
• East Asia- large-scale conventional warfare
• South Asia- non-state/sub-national attack
• Middle East- large-scale conventional
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From Inductive to Deductive Exploration• Role of Transparency vs. Opacity?• Role of Non-State Actors?• Tradeoffs: National Deterrence Strategies vs. Regional Stability?
– US: ED vs. deep-strike– PRC: A2AD vs. entanglement/regional security priorities– Russia: “Deliberate ambiguity” over nuclear threshold– India-Pak: Cold Start/CF-targeting? vs. tactical nukes/delegated launch/ISI-
LeT
• Trade-offs: Global vs. Regional Levels?– US-Russia/PRC redlines, escalation scenarios, mutual interests, global vs.
regional levels
• Future of Arms Control?– Reciprocal unilateral vs. coordination/CBM scenarios– Gap between local criteria for strategic stability and negative externalities of
interacting deterrence strategies
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Conclusion
• Strategic Stability Useful But Tailored Organizing Framework– Condition, not strategy– Bargaining > nuclear-centric tenets
• Asymmetries Both Material and Subjective– Contested regional conceptions/conditions
• US as Broker vs. Patron or Pivotal Player– Explicit security guarantees vs. indirect effects, moral hazard– Prominence/centrality to bolster credibility/trust & manipulate
alignment/interdependent ties
• Strategic Implications– Managing divergent escalation pathways– Contending with trade-offs– Identifying equilibrium points
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Discussion