the end of travel and the rise of smart mobility era, part 1

Copyright © William El Kaim 2015

The end of Travel as we knew it, and the rise of smart mobility era

William El Kaim – March 2015

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Plan• The travel industry’s growth is correlated to GDP • A new urbanized and connected world • 21st Century Is The Era Of Cities • Conquering the last mile • Smart mobility providers for crowded cities • The rise of smart mobility aggregators • The start of a mobility era

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The travel industry’s growth is correlated to GDP

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Population

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Population

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Population

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In 2013 The Combined GDP Of Poor Nations Became Greater Than The Rich Ones

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GDP Forecast

http://money.cnn.com/news/economy/world_economies_gdp/

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http://money.cnn.com/news/economy/world_economies_gdp/


World GDP Economic Centre Of Gravity Move To The East and To The South

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The Travel Industry’s Growth Is Correlated To GDP

• If world GDP increases by 1%, then air traffic generally increase by 1.3%.

• It is estimated that the price elasticity of passenger air traffic is around -0.6 at world level; that means that if the average ticket price decreases by 1% then air traffic to increase by 0.6%

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Travel Industry Growth• The travel industry would grow 5.4%

per annum for the next 10 years, outstripping global GDP.

• By 2023 the total share of global outbound expenditure is predicted to reach 20%, up from 1% in 2005.

• Elsewhere, Brazil, India, Russia, Turkey and Indonesia were cited as the markets with the biggest potential for growth.

• Chinese travelers to U.S. will rise about 140% in next 4-5 years, India 54%, Colombia 56%, Brazil 50%!

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Middle Class Growing

Source: Kharas and Gertz, Airbus

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Middle Class Growing

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A new urbanized and connected world

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World Urban Population

Source: UN Population Division, Airbus

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Top Ten Urbanized Countries

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Propensity To Travel And Urbanization Are Correlated

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21st Century Is The Era Of Cities

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Rise of Megacities

While the world total population will increase from 7 to 8.3 billion people in 2030, the urbanization growth rate is expected to be 2 % per year, representing 60 % of the world population or 5 billion people in 2030

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The Global South’s Rising Megacities: A Challenge to Urban Living

http://www.southerninnovator.org/20

http://www.southerninnovator.org/


Megacities With More Than 10M People

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USA Mega Regions

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Connecting MegaCities is Key

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Airport Growth Is Correlated To Population Growth

• “If the 20th Century Was The Era Of Nations, The 21st Century Is The Era Of Cities” Lee Myungbak, former President of the Republic of Korea. • As the world becomes more crowded, so do airports. • ACI estimates that by 2020 there will be 7 billion passengers arriving and departing

through the world's airports. That's the entirety of today's world population. • Airports will be under enormous pressure to accommodate growth.

• Airports have evolved as drivers of business location and urban development in the 21st century • In the same way as did highways in the 20th century, railroads in the 19th century

and seaports in the 18th century.

• At the largest international airports passenger terminals are morphing into luxury shopping malls and artistic and recreational venues, as well as locations to exchange knowledge and conduct business.

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Aetropolis Origin

Aetropolis was first proposed by New York commercial artist Nicholas DeSantis, presented in the November 1939 issue of Popular Science: Skyscraper Airport for City of Tomorrow

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Popular_Science

http://books.google.com/books?id=QywDAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA70&dq=aerotropolis+popular+science&hl=en&ei=CqGYT8byCKei2wW4tYjzBg&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=book-thumbnail&resnum=1&ved=0CDEQ6wEwAA


Aetropolis Vision by D. KasardaThe term was revived and substantially extended by academic and air commerce expert Dr. John D. Kasarda in 2000 • As economies become

increasingly globalized and dependent on electronic commerce, air commerce, and the speed and agility it provides to the movement of people and goods, has become its logistical backbone.

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_D._Kasarda

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_D._Kasarda


Aerotropolis vs. Airport City (Wikipedia)• Aerotropolis

• Airport integrated urban economic region • An urban plan in which the layout, infrastructure, and economy is centered around an

airport, existing as an airport city. • It is similar in form and function to a traditional metropolis, which contains a central city

core and its commuter-linked suburbs.

• Airport city: business or tourism destination in its own right. • is a term for an "inside the fence" airport area including the airport (terminals, apron,

and runways) and on-airport businesses such as air cargo, logistics, offices, retail, hotels and even entertainment and theme parks

• Total Airports revenues target from non-aeronautical = 40–60%.

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airport_city

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolis

Copyright © William El Kaim 2015 AETROPOLIS

The airport city is at the core of

the aerotropolisAIRPORT CITY

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Kasarda's Aerotropolis Concept in Video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oy3OSm1w-jY 29

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oy3OSm1w-jY


South Korea Aetropolis

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Panatropolis – Global Hub of the new World

http://panatropolis.com/ 31

http://panatropolis.com/


Airport City Denver

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5A-xCGyyJms 32

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5A-xCGyyJms


Airport City Manchester

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dhg5RVBidLk&list=PL04720ABF9DDCD5EF 33

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dhg5RVBidLk&list=PL04720ABF9DDCD5EF


Chopin Airport City - Poland

http://www.chopinairportcity.pl/en

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stOugdnJa_8&list=PL04720ABF9DDCD5EF34

http://www.chopinairportcity.pl/en

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stOugdnJa_8&list=PL04720ABF9DDCD5EF


Conquering the last mile

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Smart City• Urbanization creating massive and rapid pressure on mass transit systems

• 80% of the world’s population will be living in cities by 2050.

• A growing urban middle class also creates challenges. • Increasingly sophisticated, and web-connected consumers demand a better customer

experience in mobility.

• Proliferation of sensors • Smartphones not only create the opportunity to provide services to users, but they are

also sensors in their own right and hence rich sources of data. • Sensors are being installed in city to get a more precise vision of its “context”

• The need for new business model • Just as contextual mobility creates the opportunity for a better passenger experience and

faster passenger flow, it also creates the opportunity for transport service providers to market additional services

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Smart City• The concept of 'smarter cities'

originated in 2008, by IBM as part of its Smarter Planet initiative.

• A Smart City should have at least five out of the eight “smart” parameters listed by Frost & Sullivan.

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Smart City Principles

Source: PWC 38

http://www.pwc.com/m1/en/publications/smartcities2014.jhtml


Re-programming Mobility• In lieu of large civil infrastructure projects, transportation systems are increasingly being

augmented with a range of information technologies that make them smarter, safer, more efficient, more integrated.

• Transformation is now being driven by the private sector. • Companies are investing in infrastructure for mobility on a similar scale, but using very different

technology. • All but invisible to planners and citizens alike, new communications network are becoming

the most important transportation infrastructure of our era, enabling us to re-invent the how our roads, transit systems, and freight and logistics networks function.

• The hidden nature of these new mobility infrastructures – tiny devices in our pockets communicating over invisible radio waves with algorithms running on servers in the cloud – has conspired to conceal the important public policy and planning issues that their mass adoption raises.

Source: RE-PROGRAMMING MOBILITY, The Digital Transformation of Transportation in the United States, Dr. Anthony Townsend, Senior Research Scientist; Rudin Center for Transportation Policy & Management

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NYC Bus Performance

http://bustime.mta.info/wiki/Developers/Index

http://nathan9.github.io/nycbusperformance/ 41



http://nathan9.github.io/nycbusperformance/

http://nathan9.github.io/nycbusperformance/


The End of Travel as We knew it!• End of travel era and the beginning of the Mobility era

• People will be “mobile” and Connected all the time (domestic) • People will leverage their context (“network”) as much as possible – social, geographical,

financial, health … • People will travel virtually to meet and work with people abroad without risks at low cost

• Impacts • Travel will be not be seen anymore as station to station (origin & destination, peer to peer, etc.),

or as a Tx or PNR. • The Itinerary will no more a sheet of paper you will print out, but a living data aggregation piece.

• The future • Moving towards integrated mobility with a number of new mobility suppliers, and disruptive

digital business models. • The "omnia illico" era (Everything Now !).

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Smart mobility providers for crowded cities

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Mobility Player: Leap Transit

http://leaptransit.com/site.php 44

http://leaptransit.com/site.php


Mobility Player: Leap Transit

http://leaptransit.com/site.php 45

http://leaptransit.com/site.php


PADAM – Night Shared Bus in Paris

http://padambus.com/ 46

http://padambus.com/

http://padambus.com/


Meinfernbus

http://meinfernbus.de/ 47

http://meinfernbus.de/

http://meinfernbus.de/


Veniam

https://www.veniam.com/ 48

https://www.veniam.com/

https://www.veniam.com/


Transdev

http://www.transdev.com/en/multi-modal-offer/transport-modes/ 49

http://www.transdev.com/en/multi-modal-offer/transport-modes/

http://www.transdev.com/en/multi-modal-offer/transport-modes/


Xerox Transportation

http://www.services.xerox.com/transportation-solutions/enus.html 50

http://www.services.xerox.com/transportation-solutions/enus.html

http://www.services.xerox.com/transportation-solutions/enus.html


The Future Of Transport Is About Sharing

The 20 largest bicycle sharing systems in the world. Three are in Europe (Paris, London, Barcelona), two are in North America (New York and Toronto), the other 15 are in China. Data: Earth Policy Institute, 2013!

Source UrbanTimes 51

http://urbantimes.co/magazine/2013/12/future-transport-sharing/

http://urbantimes.co/magazine/2013/12/future-transport-sharing/


Audi UNITE• Unite, a car-sharing pilot program (currently only available in Stockholm). • The program allows up to five people to share “ownership” of an Audi via a

smartphone scheduling app, which allows all owners to reserve the vehicle, see the car’s location and even check fuel levels.

• Aside from the app, owners receive a beacon to attach to their key ring, which electronically tracks personal usage.

https://www.audiunite.com/se/service/en_unite.html52

https://www.audiunite.com/se/service/en_unite.html



Mercedes Driverless Prototype

53https://www.mercedes-benz.com/en/mercedes-benz/innovation/research-vehicle-f-015-luxury-in-motion/

https://www.mercedes-benz.com/en/mercedes-benz/innovation/research-vehicle-f-015-luxury-in-motion/


Local Motion: Sharing Company Cars

54https://www.getlocalmotion.com/

https://www.getlocalmotion.com/

https://www.getlocalmotion.com/


Velib’ in Paris France

Source: Urban Times 55

http://futurecapetown.com/2013/07/watch-tel-aviv-bike-shares/




CityBike in New York

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ScootNetworks

http://www.scootnetworks.com/ 57

http://www.scootnetworks.com/


Smart Scooter

Smart, the Daimler brand that makes the ultra-compact Smart Car, announced its 5.4-horsepower Smart Scooter

Use your iPhone as the console

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http://www.autoblog.com/2012/06/24/smart-bringing-electric-scooter-to-u-s-in-2014-will-be-part-of/


Wattmobile : Electric Vehicle at French Railway Stations

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Driverless Car

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Urban Transport Pods

• Human operator interacts with the pod using a touchscreen in the windshield.

• Swipe to select a destination, and use the built-in wireless hotspot to connect your gadgets.

• The pod operates on its own, showing its current route.

Already being used in Masdar City in Abu Dhabi and at the London Heathrow airport, but both are used in tightly controlled areas.

LUTZ is a system of driverless cars, or pods, that will be deployed in Milton Keynes, a town northeast of London

Video

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=KGIsvLpdF-g


Hitachi's ROPITS tablet-controlled, self-driving urban vehicle

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The rise of smart mobility aggregators

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The rise of smart mobility aggregators• Market will see new players termed Mobility Aggregator (MA) emerged

• Entity which offers a selection of mobility services as core business either as standalone providers or through partnerships. Source: Frost and Sullivan

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http://fr.slideshare.net/FrostandSullivan/future-of-mobility-16093656


NS Business Card• 5% of business travelers use the train, while 95% use other modes of

transportation, mainly cars, thereby opening up a number of avenues for NS to innovate.

• The transit payment system that the NS Business Card employed on a national level, focuses on flexible post-paid payments rather than on a pre-paid system

http://www.ns.nl/en/business/products/the-new-ns-business-card.html

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http://www.ns.nl/en/business/products/the-new-ns-business-card.html


Daimler Mobility Services Moovel

https://www.moovel.com/

GottaPark

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http://www.gottapark.com/


SHIFT

67https://shiftconnects.com/

https://shiftconnects.com/

https://shiftconnects.com/


Mobility Aggregators - Europe Examples …

Source: Frost and Sullivan 68



Ex: Citroen Multicity

http://www.multicity.citroen.fr/ 69

http://www.multicity.citroen.fr/


Example: Mu By Peugeot

http://www.mu.peugeot.fr/70

http://www.mu.peugeot.fr/

http://www.mu.peugeot.fr/


The start of a mobility era

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Welcome To The Mobility Era

Mobility is about seamless travel using all of the various modes of transportation available rather than relying solely on one transportation mode.

Source: Frost and Sullivan

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Welcome To The Mobility Era

74Source: The Future of Urban Mobility 2.0

http://www.adlittle.com/downloads/tx_adlreports/2014_ADL_UITP_Future_of_Urban_Mobility_2_0_Full_study.pdf


Key Resources• Mobility Practice from Frost & Sullivan’s

• Future of Mobility: New Business Models, Opportunities, and Market Entrants in Mobility Integration (slideshare) - video teaser (youtube)

• The Future of Urban Mobility 2.0, Arthur D. Little

• Connected World – Transforming Travel, Transportation and Supply Chains, World Economic Forum.

• The smart mobility management review. • Re-programming Mobility: The Digital

Transformation of Transportation in the United States

Claudine O'Sullivan http://www.claudineosullivan.com/ Email : [email protected]

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William(at)el-kaim(point)com +33 6 41 73 00 34

http://fr.linkedin.com/in/williamelkaim http://www.twitter.com/welkaim http://www.slideshare.net/welkaim


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKp-G14TA78



http://www.weforum.org/issues/connected-world-transforming-travel-transportation-and-supply-chains

http://www.smart-mobilitymanagement.com/

http://www.smart-mobilitymanagement.com/

http://reprogrammingmobility.org/




mailto:[email protected]




http://fr.linkedin.com/in/williamelkaim

http://www.twitter.com/welkaim

http://www.slideshare.net/welkaim

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