the energy challenge; is sustainabilty within sight
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The Energy Challenge; Is sustainabilty within sight. TCM. Dr. Nils A. Røkke Director Climate Change Technologies SINTEF CESAER, Trondheim15 October 2010. SWAY. REC. SINTEF and NTNU - “Symbiosis at work”. Number of employees: 2175 Annual turnover (2009): 340 Million € - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Technology for a better society
The Energy Challenge; Is sustainabilty within sight
Dr. Nils A. RøkkeDirector Climate Change Technologies SINTEF
CESAER, Trondheim15 October 2010
REC SWAY
TCM
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Technology for a better society
SINTEF and NTNU - “Symbiosis at work”
Number of employees: 2175
Annual turnover (2009): 340 Million €
Main funding is from industrial contract research, 7% basic public funding
A technological cluster with education, basic & applied research, innovations and business
developments- covering 3600 of the society
SINTEF - Scandinavia’s largest R&DInstitute
Founded 1950 by NTNU as a Foundation- non-profit
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Technology for a better society
3
Centres of Environmental Friendly Energy (CEER) in SINTEF and NTNU
BIGCCS – Int’ CCS R&D Centre
CenBio
NOWITECH
The Norwegian CE for Solar Cell Technology
• An R&D effort of million 200€ over 8 yrs
• International co-operation
• Unique R&D infrastructure development
• Approx 110 Phd students and Post doc’s
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Technology for a better society
The energy challenge and the sustainabilty criterion
• The Brundtland report defined sustainable development as – "meet present needs without compromising the ability of
future generations to meet their needs“
Or even simpler (Gillman)– “do onto future generations as you would have them do
onto you.“
• For Energy this means:– Meeting the demand for energy at present and not hamper the
possibility to do so for future generations taking care of• Economy• Society • Environment
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Technology for a better society
How are we doing today viz sustainabilty• Do we meet the present needs, and the future?, electricity
case
IEA WEO2009
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Technology for a better society
Sustainable energy mix?
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Technology for a better society
Sustainable energy mix?
WEO 2008
NO!
15%5%80%
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Technology for a better society
Main unsustainability issues • We do not meet the energy demands of today, there is a huge poverty issue
• The energy we use is based on unsustainable sources, clearly fossil fuels will run dry in the medium to long term
• The impact of energy conversion on the environment is unsustainable, short term remedies can be put in place but we are even changing our global framework- the atmosphere
• There is as such an urgent need to take actions to deliver the planet to the next generation “as we would have liked them to deliver it to us”
Reuters
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Technology for a better society9
An uncomfortable curve!
IEA WEO2009
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Technology for a better society
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International Energy Agency – suggesting a low carbon diet
IEA ETP2010
Reduction needed to keep global warming with 2-3 degrees
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Technology for a better society
Let’s look at the bright side of life
• Can we at least recover some of the sustainability lost and mitigate?
• What does it take to move in this direction?
• No shortage of power
Energy Source Max Power (TW) % of Total Solar
Total Surface solar 85000 100
Desert solar 7650 9
Ocean thermal 100 0,12
Wind 72 0,08
Geothermal 44 0,05
River hydropower 7 0,008
Biomass 7 0,008
Open ocean wave 7 0,008
Tidal wave 4 0,003
Coastal wave 3 0,003 Abbot, 2010
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Technology for a better society
A shift from fossil to environmental friendly energy needed
Observations:
Less demand in 2050 than 2007 for fossil fuels
Fuel switching plays a role
Presumes technology development
ETP2010
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Technology for a better society
Power production, facilitating the electric society
Observations:
Mix dependent on strategic decisions• nuclear?• use of gas
Main RES contributors• Solar • Wind• Hydro
ETP2010
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Technology for a better society
Power production, facilitating the electric society
Observations:
Massive deployment needed
No silver bullet
Rate today is minute
ETP2010
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Technology for a better society
Technology Road Maps – Wind power
Observations:
12% of GEP in 2050
Offshore wind power ties in around 2020
ETP2010
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Technology for a better society
Technology Road Maps – Cars
Observations:
Gradual feed in of hybrids, plug-in hybrids, FEV and H2 powered cars
Transport difficult to transform, biofuels have little role, use for trucks and air transport
ETP2010
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Technology for a better society
Schematic diagram of possible CCS systems
SRCCS Figure TS-1
X
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Technology for a better society18
CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS)
”Key Message: CCS is not just about cleaner coal: a number of sectors will need to develop CCS to achieve the BLUE Map scenario’s emission targets”
IEA CCS Roadmap
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Technology for a better society
Technology Road Maps – SMART GRIDS - 2050
Observations:
Backbone for facilitating the electric society
ETP2010
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Technology for a better society
Good news – it’s a profitable route!
Observations:
Efficiency gains means less energy costs
Less demand for key energy carriers stabilises prices
Hydrocarbons can be used for other purposes
ETP2010
Investment is approx 35% of 2010 US budget spending for 40 years
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Technology for a better society
Sustainable- other benefits!
Observations:
Most actions include other benefits as well
ETP2010
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Technology for a better society
There are positive movements though- we need to grow them
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Technology for a better society
Is sustainabilty within sight?• We need to invest to get onto a more sustainable path,
these are better investments than banksavings or bonds• More advanced technologies are needed, we must invest
much more into education, R&D and deployment support for energy technologies.
• Sustained use of fossil fuels is non-sustainable, any technologies relying on continued use of fossil fuels are bridging technologies
• They are however urgently needed as the transplantation of the spine in our energy system must be of a fast transformational rather than revolutionary nature.
• Energy is abundant on our planet- the long term sustainable solution is solar power albeit we may have an issue with that in Trondheim
• The question is if we will act fast enough to hand over the planet to next generations in a presentable condition, let’s work together!