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- 1 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
The European Foundry Industry
IFF 2012 - Prague
CAEF - The European Foundry Association
- 2 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
The European Foundry IndustryStructure, Trends and SWOT Analysis
IFF 2012 - Prague
CAEF - The European Foundry Association
- 3 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
Production:� 15.7 m t
Value:� approx. 41 bn €
Employees:� 280,400 employees
Foundries:� 4,998 foundries
Fe: 12.2 m t; NF: 3.5 m t
Fe: 21 bn €; NF: 20 bn €
Fe: 169,600; NF: 110,800
European Foundry Industry Key Figures 2011
Bild
: S
osch
insk
i
Source: CAEF
Fe: 2,102; NF: 2,896
- 4 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
India10%
Rest of the World0%
Japan5%
Taiwan1%
Korea2%
CAEF16%
Brazil4%
Canada1%
Mexico2%
USA9%
China45%
Russia5%
Casting Production Main Regions
Source: CAEF, moderncasting, national associations, Data 2010
- 5 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
China CAEF USA Russia India Japan
Mill
. t 2000 2010
European Foundry Industry Fe-Castings – Second Worldwi de
+252% -24%+261%-38%-13% -34%
Source: CAEF (2000 incl. Turkey) , moderncasting, national associations
Impact of 2008/2009
- 6 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
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China CAEF USA Japan India Russia
Mio
. t 2000 2010
European Foundry Industry NF-Castings – Second Worldwi de
-1,6% +257%-20%+7%+380% -17%
Impact of 2008/2009
Source: CAEF (2000 incl. Turkey) , moderncasting, national associations
- 7 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
Zinc1,3%
Grey Cast Iron41,4%
Ductile Cast Iron32,9%
Steel Castings6,2%
Copper Castings1,7%
Magnesium0,2%
Aluminium16,3%
European Foundry Industry: Materials
Source: CAEF
- 8 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
5.000
Switzer
land
Norway
Hunga
ryDen
mar
kFinl
and
Belgium
Sloven
iaPor
tugal
Austria
Sweden
United
King
dom
Czech
Rep
.Pola
ndSpa
in
Italy
Turke
yFra
nce
Germ
any
2010 2011
1.000 t
Europe: Ferrous Castings 2010/2011 (sorted by 2010)
Source: CAEF
Production volume 201112.231 million tons+ 9.3 %
- 9 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1.000
Belgium
Denm
ark
Norway
Finlan
dSwitz
erlan
dPor
tugal
Sloven
iaSwed
enCze
ch R
ep.
Hunga
ry
United
King
dom
Spain
Austria
Turke
yPola
ndFra
nce
Italy
Germ
any
2010 2011
1.000 t
Europe: Non Ferrous Castings 2010/2011 (sorted by 201 0)
Source: CAEF
Production volume 20113.545 million tons+ 9.2 %
- 10 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
CAEF Number of Ferrous Foundries and Employment
26542414
2199 2175 2102
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
2005 2008 2009 2010 2011
num
ber o
f fou
ndrie
s
Source: CAEF
Foundries 2011:2009 = - 4.4 % Employees 2011:2009 = + 4.9 %
192200
161700169600
0
25.000
50.000
75.000
100.000
125.000
150.000
175.000
200.000
2005 2008 2009 2010 2011nu
mbe
r of e
mpl
oyee
s
Driven by automotive platform strategies and similar components:bigger units to manage high volume series
- 11 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
CAEF Number of Non-Ferrous Foundries and Employment
29602985
2754
2853
2896
2.600
2.650
2.700
2.750
2.800
2.850
2.900
2.950
3.000
3.050
2005 2008 2009 2010 2011
num
ber o
f fou
ndrie
s
Source: CAEF
Foundries 2011:2009 = + 5.2 %
126200
103800110800
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
140.000
2005 2008 2009 2010 2011nu
mbe
r of e
mpl
oyee
s
Employees 2011:2009 = + 6.7 %
Driven by automotive lightweight trends
- 12 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
Productivity in the European Foundry Industry 2011
Source: estimation by CAEF and BDG
• Ferrous castings: Average performance 55 tons per employeewith a range up to 103 tons
• Non-ferrous castings: Average performance 22 tons per employeewith a range up to 65 tons
• Sample companyTurnover 170,000 Euro per employeeAmount of material used 90,000 Euro per employeeGross profit 80,000 Euro per employee
Bild: Lickfett
- 13 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
Export quota European Foundry Industry 2011
Source: estimation by CAEF
• Export quota total (including deliveries inside Euro area)37 %
• Export quota Euro area23 %
• Export quota outside Euro area14 %
• = castings are produced where castings are needed:86 % delivered directly within the Euro area!
The end use of European castings is all over the world! Bild: Soschinski
- 14 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
Economic Status, Early Indicators and Driving Forces
Bild: Fotolia, Nesterov Vasily;
- 15 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
Source: Ifo-Institut, München
World Economic Climate August 2012
1
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Upswing Boom
Downswing
QIV/2008
Recession
Present economicsituation
Economic expectations for the next six month
bad good
improvement
deterioration
Consolidated Upturn / Peak- Present economic stuation: good
- Economic expectations: optimistic
Cooling-down / Contraction- Present economic situation: satisfactory
- Economic expectations: deterioration
Through / Late Phase of Downturn- Present economic situation:deterioration
- Economic expectations: cautious
Recovery / Expansion- Present economic situation: improvement
- Economic expectations: improvement
QI/2006
QI/2008
QIII/2007
US Sub-primecredit crisis
QI/2009
QI/2010
QIII/2012QIV/2012?
- 16 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
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EU Gross Domestic Product Quarter over QuarterChange in % qoq
Source: Eurostat, forecast 3Q 12 – 4Q 13 Dekabank
- 17 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
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EURO Germany France Italy Spain UK
EU Gross Domestic Product Quarter over QuarterChange in % qoq
Source: Eurostat, forecast 3Q 12 – 4Q 13 Dekabank
- 18 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
Source: Markit, Deka
Euro Area Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) Sept. 2012Industry Bottom Out?
Industry
Service
- 19 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Sep 08 Jan 09 Mai 09 Sep 09 Jan 10 Mai 10 Sep 10 Jan 11 Mai 11 Sep 11 Jan 12 Mai 12 Sep 12 Jan 13
ferrous - expectations for six monthsnon-ferrous - expectations for six months
FISI – European Foundry Industry Sentiment IndicatorAugust 2012 – Expectations for the next half year
Source CAEF, Index May 2007 = 100
Ferrous castingsdriven by automotive (50 %)and engineering (25 %)
Non-ferrous castingsca. 75 % automotive
- 20 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
Building industry
Engineering
Railway
Vehicles78%
2%8%
4%
NF Fe
Steel industry
Electrical engineering
4%
54%
28%
4%2%4%
4%
Other
2%
6%
Source: BDG, CAEF
Typical Customer Structure for Castings in %:Importance of Vehicle Industry
Share varies between80 % and 37 %
- 21 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
Automotive Supply Current Status
• Heterogeneous situation in Europe –the OEMs in the south are suffering whereas others acting stable or dynamic
• Commercial vehicles recovering only outside of Europe
• Two major trends (IFF 2010) are continuing
– Market saturation in the Triad
– Climate policy
• Innovative castings and light weight are a relevant contribution to the energy and CO2 efficiency of products!
- 22 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
Automotive Global MarketProduction Forecast 2013
Source: JD Power, WARD´s Automotive, BAIRD
+4.8%
+0.7%
+7.0%+1.4%+3.0%
+6.0%+5.0%+4.3%
2013 Change in %
- 23 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
Automotive Global MarketKey Drivers
Source: JD Power, WARD´s Automotive, BAIRD
• Europe: Already high efficiency means key drivers areincremental changes and electrification
• US: 2016 targets achievable with current technologies;2025 targets require change in fleet mix,smaller engines and Evs
• China: Adopting EU standards with a lag;aggressively pursuing “low‐cost” electrification
• ROW: Most regions adopting EU standards with a lag
• Suppliers: Consumption and efficiency are the permanent challenge
- 24 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
Commercial Vehicles – Global MarketProduction Forecast 2013
Source: JD Power, WARD´s Automotive, BAIRD
2013 Change in %
+3.6%
+4.7%
+8.0%+0.0%+3.0%
+7.0%+7.0%+5.7%
- 25 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
Commercial Vehicles Global MarketKey Drivers
• US: For first time in 30 years, there are no EPA emission standards on the horizon in the US
• China/India: The “westernisation” of fleets in China/India drivescontent/share growth for western OEMs/suppliers
• Brazil: Secular growth in Brazil economy expected to bedriven by World Cup (2014), Olympics (2016)
• Opportunities for suppliers: Powertrain and fuel technologies as well asweight reduction and reduce friction
- 26 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
Building industry
Engineering
Railway
Vehicles78%
2%8%
4%
NF Fe
Steel industry
Electrical engineering
4%
54%
28%
4%2%4%
4%
Other
2%
6%
Source: BDG
Typical Customer Structure for Castings in %Importance of Engineering Industry
Share varies between86 % and 26 %
- 27 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
-10 -5 0 5 10 15
SpainPortugal
NetherlandsItaly
FinlandBelgium
UKDenmark
FranceSwitzerland
SwedenGermany
AustriaJapanWorld
USAChina
International Engineering Sales Forecast 2012
Source: national Institutes, VDMA
Change in % against previous year
September 2012: upward revision!
- 28 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Jan98
Jan99
Jan00
Jan01
Jan02
Jan03
Jan04
Jan05
Jan06
Jan07
Jan08
Jan09
Jan10
Jan11
Jan12
Jan13
Jan14
Economic Cycle General Engineering: Incoming Orders
Source: VDMA, Example Germany (share of 40 % in Europe)
Change in % against same quarter of the previous year
Signs of leveling out could lead to a moderate growth in 2013
- 29 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
General Engineering - US Wind power could suffer:Impact on heavy weight castings delivered from EU
- 30 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
General Engineering SupplyKey Drivers
• General Engineering is a follower of automotive regarding the high demands on foundries
• Western European Engineering OEMs will continue dominating their home markets (at least until 2020)
• Energy efficiency and other "green" concepts are getting more important in developed countries
• Foundries are required to deliver proactive ideas and components to facilitate the customers to reach these targets
- 31 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
• Passenger cars: In Europe moderate recovery on low level,Growth rates in the US and BRICs moderate
Commercial vehicles: Sales in Europe weakExport markets are still alive
• General Engineering: A small increase is possibleThe perspectives are depending from the castingintensity of the subsectors within general engineering.
• All fundamental trends published in „Castings 2020“ are intact.Questions are often the unresolved financing issues and the politicalframework!
Perspectives 2013 for European Foundries
- 32 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
Europe = Industrial Base for FoundriesSWOT Analysis
Strengths
• State of the art production technologies lead to high productivity
• Top level energy efficiency (cost awareness and policy driven)
• Top level OEMs and leading engineering customers nearby
• Heterogeneous company structure: Foundries as generalists and specialistsFoundries as hidden champions
• Trend to dual training (company and school) will increase the level of workforce
Picture: Fotolia
- 33 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
Europe = Industrial Base for FoundriesSWOT Analysis
Weaknesses
• Suppliers with high dependency on strategical decisions of the customer industries
• Energy intensive production leads to dependency on energy prices(heterogeneous price level within Europe)
• Europe has no significant sources of important raw materials
Picture: MS
- 34 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
Europe = Industrial Base for FoundriesSWOT Analysis
Opportunities
• Custom made castings and Customer oriented R & D
• Traditional: Cooperative industrial research between foundries, customers and universities leads to innovative production technologies, energy efficiency and new materials
• More intensive participation within the value chain
• Climate friendly products (e.g. for electrification trends in the vehicleindustry and regenerative energy)
• Hybrid materials to fulfil new customer demands(e.g. metal and plastics)
Picture: Fotolia
- 35 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
Europe = Industrial Base for FoundriesSWOT Analysis
Threats
• Competition with substitution trends (carbon fiber, new plastics)
• Significant changes in the demand of „traditional“ components (e.g. powertrain)
• Looming shortage of skilled workers and engineers in some countries
• A lot of foundries have to cope with relatively scarce capital but need to innovate: Foundries have to take more and more R & D risks from their customers
Picture: Fotolia
- 36 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
Europe = Industrial Base for FoundriesSWOT Analysis
Threats
• Competition with other materials (Carbon fever, new plastics)
• Significant changes in the demand of „traditional“ components (e.g. powertrain)
• Looming shortage of skilled workers and engineers in some countries
• A lot of foundries have to cope with relatively scarce capital but need to innovate
• Foundries have to take more and more R & D risks from their customers
- 37 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
Heiko LickfettCAEF The European Foundry Association
+49(0)211/[email protected]
If you have any queries please contact!
- 38 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu
International Foundry Forum, 21 - 22 September 2012 in Prague - CAEF The European Foundry Association
The European Foundry Industry – Yearbook 2011