The Ever-Shifting Internet Population

A new look at Internet access and the digital divide

Presented as an NIH/NCI seminar on June 25, 2003

by Amanda LenhartPew Internet & American Life Project

http://www.pewinternet.org

Methodology

• RDD national phone survey of 3,553 in March-May 2002

• 6 focus groups with new and non-users at greater DC-Baltimore community technology centers

• Personal interviews

• Cross-tab, factor and regression analysis

Fluidity in Access

• Internet use isn’t binary—not just online or offline

• Net use is much more fluid, and not necessarily progressive or direct

• 42% of Americans do not go online• May be contributing to stagnation in

Internet growth—maxed out at 61% since late 2001

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Jun-9

5

Dec-9

5

Jun-9

6

Dec-9

6

Jun-9

7

Dec-9

7

Jun-9

8

Dec-9

8

Jun-9

9

Dec-9

9

Jun-0

0

Dec-0

0

Jun-0

1

Dec-0

1

Jun-0

2

Dec-0

2

Flattening of Growth in the Internet Population(% of Americans who go online)

Non-user Basics

• Older Americans are less wired than younger• African-Americans and Hispanics are less wired than

Whites• Americans with lower levels of education are less wired

than those with more schooling• Poorer Americans are less wired than wealthier people.• Rural residents are less wired than their suburban or urban

counterparts• The unemployed are less wired than the employed

Major Reasons Why Non-users Do Not Go Online

11%

27%

29%

30%

43%

52%

52%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

No computer

Too complicated

No time

Too expensive

I'm worried about credit card theft, fraud,porn

I don't need it

I don't want it

Maj

or R

easo

ns

% of Non-users

No computer Too complicated No time Too expensive I'm worried about credit card theft, fraud, porn I don't need it I don't want it

Other reasons Americans not online

• Fear & Embarrassment—don’t want to look foolish, afraid of breaking machine, afraid skills will be too hard to learn

• Cultural/social roles

• Literacy and language skills

• Disability

Details about Non-users & Users

• Net Evaders

• Net Dropouts

• Truly Disconnected

• Intermittent users

Net Evaders

• 20% of Non-users live in wired homes• “Secondhand users”• Half think they’ll go online some day• Look a lot like Internet users• Net Evaders tend to be more suburban/urban than rural,

more likely to be 30-49, about evenly divided between men and women, and compared to other non-users, tend to have relatively higher levels of income and education.

• Why don’t Net Evaders go online?

Why Net Evaders don’t go online

• Not a good use of time, too time intensive

• Not missing out by not being online, don’t need it or want it

• Fears about ability to learn skills

• Embarrassment

• Computer access problems (monopolized?)

• “high-touch vs. high-tech”

Net Dropouts

• 17% of Non-users have used the Internet in the past but have since stopped, up from 13% in 2000

• 27% increase in dropouts• Overlap with Evaders• Net Dropouts tend to be younger, slightly more likely

to be parents, more likely to be employed and more likely to live in urban areas than other non-users. Net dropouts are more likely to be African-American or Hispanic, and have lower income levels.

• Why did they drop offline?

Why Net Dropouts Dropped Out

• Lost access—problems with software, hardware, ISP, changed jobs, moved, new disability or illness

• Didn’t want it/like it/need it• No time/not a good use of my time• Too expensive• Content concerns & technological difficulties—

confusing or hard to use, offended by salacious content, worried about children’s exposure to inappropriate materials/people.

Truly Unconnected

• 69% of non-users, 24% of all Americans• Truly Unconnected tend to be very low income,

with low levels of educational attainment, more likely to be women and much older than even other non-users. Slightly more likely to be African-American.

• Among this group, 31% don’t know anyone who goes online—totally unconnected

• Why don’t the Truly Unconnected go online?

Why the Truly Unconnected aren’t online

• Socially unconnected• More than half say don’t need it or want it• Worries over objectionable content/crime• Can’t afford it • Don’t have the time/not a good use of time• Too complicated or hard to use• No computer/Internet connection• Less likely to know of public locations of access

Intermittent Users

• Americans who are online, but have left the Internet for extended periods of time.

• 27%-44% of Americans (surveyed twice)• Intermittent Users tend to be younger, single,

students, minorities and not employed in a full-time job. Evenly divided between men and women, more likely to live in urban/rural areas than the suburbs, have lower levels of education and income than other users. Most are dial-up users and tend to be newer to the ‘Net.

• Why did they drop offline?

Why Intermittent users left the Internet

• No time to use the Internet, not at good use of my time• Problems with the technology (Computer, Internet,

ISP, software)• Lost access to the technology (moved, lost/changed

jobs, graduated, disability/illness)• Didn’t need it, like it or want it. It wasn’t useful• Concerned about online crime/objectionable content

for myself or my children.• Cost

A Spectrum of Access: How it all fits together

Americans with disabilities (1)

• Even with sec 508 improving content access for the disabled on government websites…

• …Only 38% of disabled Americans go online

• About a fifth (19%) of disabled users say their disability makes Internet use difficult

• Of disabled non-users, 28% say their disability makes it difficult or impossible to go online

Americans with disabilities (2)

• In general, Americans with disabilities have much lower levels of income—29% live in a household that earns less than $20,000 annually, vs. only 12% of those without disabilities.

• But adaptive technology—hardware or software is often expensive, and out of reach for home use, or not available at public locations of access—assuming the disabled person can get to that public access site.

Americans with disabilities (3)

• Many disabled Americans are very eager to go online

• Disabled Americans who do go online– Are more likely to look for health information online

– More likely to play a game

– Slightly less likely to buy a product online

– Just as likely to visit a government website, use mail or go to a news web site.

Empirical Analysis of Internet Use

• Wanted to test a wide range of hypotheses about what drives Internet adoption– Differences in personality, social outlook– Community connections– Economic factors– Lifestyle– Race

Empirical Analysis of Internet Use

• Factor analysis yielded the following groupings:– Social networks—frequent contact with friends/family– People’s psychological disposition (introvert versus

extrovert)– Connections to community—membership in groups– Social contentment—people who trust others, think people

are fair, have good support networks, control over their lives– Personal Time—satisfied with time spent with friends and

pursuing hobbies– Church goers– Media use—watch TV or read newspaper daily

Findings (1)

• Strong positive predictors of Internet use:– Student– College graduate– Household income– Being employed

• Relatively weak positive predictors of Internet use– Social contentment & control– Media use– Being white– Being a parent

Findings (2)• Negative predictors of Internet use:

– Age (over 55 breakpoint)– Being African American– Being Hispanic (weakly)– Disability– Social networks

• Non-factors:– Marital status– Gender– Church going– Personal Time– Personality– Monthly cost of Internet access

• Group Membership – indeterminate

Empirical Analysis: Summary

• Demography is destiny—race, income, education, social outlook strong predictors of access

• Some positive predictors (student, college graduate) suggest social learning is important

• People whose social worlds are close by (they are involved in local groups, they visit with family) see less need for Internet.

Final thoughts

• Findings provide detailed information to help make policies more efficient and effective– Need to maintain multiple information channels

• Still demographic lags—among Hispanics and African-Americans, in rural areas, amongst the poor and the poorly educated.

• Internet population growth has stalled—is it the economy, fluidity or the top of the adoption curve?

• More research needed on impact of community involvement

The Ever-Shifting Internet Population:

Authored by Amanda Lenhart, John Horrigan,

Lee Rainie, Katherine Allen, Angie Boyce, Mary Madden and Erin O’Grady

Released April 16, 2003

Available online at http://www.pewinternet.org

This presentation is based on a report from the Pew Internet Project: