the evidence-based case for urgent climate action · ian dunlop & david spratt 2017 facing...

IanDunlop&DavidSpratt2017

Facing RealityThe Evidence-Based Case for Urgent Climate Action

Trajectory, Impact, Risk, Solutions

Ian T. DunlopDirector Australia 21

Member, Club of RomeFellow, Centre for Policy Development

Deputy Convenor, Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil

Symposium on Climate Change & World Development3rd-5th May 2017 Rome


TRAJECTORYClimate change

• Arctic&WestAntarcticawarming2-3timesfasterthanrest

Decadal mean surface temperature anomalies relative to base period 1951-1980.Source: update of Hansen et al., NASA GISS analysis of surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res.104, 30997-31022, 1999.

• Happeningfarfaster&moreextensivelythananticipated• Primarilydrivenbyhumancarbonemissionsfromfossilfuel

combustion,agriculture&landclearing


• Hottestmonthonrecord1.55oC(March)

• GreatBarrierReef:recordwarmoceantemperatures

• TasmaniaWorldHeritagefires

• ScorchingMiddleEastheatwave 54°C

• Recordlowpolarseaiceextent

• AMOCslowdown• RecordfloodsUSA

TRAJECTORY2016: Record year & El Nino

2007-16 0.89oC2014 1.01oC2015 1.12oC2016 1.24oC


1°C

2°C

3°C

4°C

1.5°C

Warmingfrom1880-1900base

Warming“inthesystem”(inertia)

“Verydangerous”boundary

“Incompatiblewithanorganisedglobalcommunity”

Paris aims to “to hold the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C, and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C”

Parisaim

Parisactions

2.7°C-3.5°C “...Outrightsocialchaos”?

TRAJECTORYParis climate emissions path


TRAJECTORYPotential climate tipping points

“ControlledImplosionofFossilFuelIndustries”,Schellnhuber,Rahmstorf,Winkelmann,PotsdamInstitute,June2016

IPCCScenarios


TRAJECTORYArctic methane emissions

• Arisingfrompermafrostmeltandmethaneclathrate transformationfromsolidtogaseousstate.

• Twiceasmuchcarboninpermafrostasatmosphere.Oncemelttakeshold,probablyirreversible.

Belyisland– SiberiaMarch20177000PotentialOutburstSites

Identifiedrecently

Yamal Crater– SiberiaJuly2014MethaneOutburst

30metre diametercrater

MethaneconcentrationovertheArcticfrom2009-13overtheperiodJanuary21st-31steachyear


Parisaccordhasnoemissionsreductionsbefore2030,whereastheyshouldbedroppingrapidly

TRAJECTORYParis commitments (INDCs) 2015

Source: David Spratt


IMPACTSDrought

Observedchangeincoldseasonprecipitationfortheperiod1971–2010minus1902–70.Anomalies(mm)arerelativetothe1902–2010period.Hoerlingetal,J.Climate25:2146-61


IMPACTSSocial consequences

TheSyrian&NorthAfricanrefugeecrisesarefundamentallyclimatechangedriven

Syria


IMPACTSSea-level risesIPCC

● USDeptofDefence“higher”scenariois2metresby2100● NOAA2017“extreme”scenariois2.5metres● “Pastsealevelvariedby10-20metresforeach1°Cchangeintheglobalaveragetemperature.”Prof.DavidArcher

Whatscientistssay2007:upto0.59metreby21002014:upto0.55/0.82mby2100but“levelsabovethelikelyrangecannotbereliablyevaluated.”

climateandsecurity.org/militaryexpertpanel;NOAATechnicalReportNOSCO-OPS083;www.pik-potsdam.de/~victor/archer.subm.clim.change.pdf


China’sspecialeconomiczone• 120millionpeopleby2050• 40%China’sexportincome• Mostofarealessthan2

metresabovesealevel• 2ndgreatest(afterKolkata)

no.ofpeopleestimatedtobeatriskofflooding

• “Hard”defencesnotfeasible

ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS

China: Pearl River Delta

http://www.climatecodered.org/2016/08/how-climate-change-will-sink-chinas.html


• OverhalfMekongRiverDelta<2metres abovesealevel,largepartsbelow.

• Provides40%Vietnam’sagriculturalproduction,>50%nationalrice,>50%agricultureexports,65%offruitproduction,60%ofcombinedfisheries/aquacultureoutput.

• 60%ofVietnam’surbanareasare1.5metres orlessabovesealevel


Vietnam: Mekong River Delta

http://www.climatecodered.org/2016/08/how-climate-change-will-sink-chinas.html



Egypt: Nile River Delta

http://www.climatecodered.org/2016/08/how-climate-change-will-sink-chinas.html16

Egypt

Cairo

Alexandria

Port Said

Area under Cropland

0 50 100 km

100%

0%

no d

ata

1 meter 2 meters

Low Elevation Coast Zone Urban Extents

0 1 – 4 5 – 24 25 – 249 250 – 999 1,000 +

Population Density, 2000 (persons per km²)

Major Cities

• ThegranaryoftheMiddleEast

• A1-metresea-levelrisewouldfloodone-fourthoftheNileDelta


• World’s3rd-greatestvolumefreshwater• FeedslargestriverbasinsinAsia,home

to1.3billionpeople• GlacialmeltintoIndus,Gangesand

Brahmaputracontributeupto45percentofriverflow

• Manyglacialsystemsgoneby2050• 4/5th China’sgrainharvestonirrigated

land• FallingwatertablesinIndiaandChina


Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau


“Bangladeshisthegroundzeroofclimatechange”1metresealevelrisewillinundate20%oflandanddisplace30millionpeople

IndiahassurroundedBangladeshwithadoublesecurityfencepatrolledby80,000troops

ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS Bangladesh


RISK1°C warming already dangerous

• Coralreefbleaching

• Arcticsea-icetippingpoint

• Desertification,droughtandconflictinSyria,acrossSahel

• Typhoons/inundation

• WestAntarcticatippingpoint

• Multi-metresealevelriseinthesystem

Ricke,Moerno-Cruzetal(2015,NatureGeoscience9:5–6

IMPACTS BEFORE 2°C


RISK

To stay below the Paris limits

Source:“TheSky’sLimit”,OilChangeInternational,September2016

• with50%chanceofsuccessfor1.5°C,or66%for2°C• nonewfossilfuelprojectscanbebuilt

• manageddeclineofexistingfossilfuelindustry


RISK

50% or 60% not good odds for humanity

Source:D.Spratt,M.Raupach,I.Dunlop basedonIPCCAR5,2014

2000

1500

1000

500

0

Probability of success [keeping below 2C°]0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Emissions so far

33% chance of success

50%66%

90% chance of success

Nobudgetleft!

5-95%confidencerange=1- 3.1oC

2oCcarbonbudgetandprobabilityofsuccess


Ariskposinglargenegativeconsequencestohumanitywhichcanneverbeundone.

Onewhereanadverseoutcomewouldeitherannihilatelifeorpermanentlyanddrasticallycurtailitspotential

RISK

Climate change is an existential risk

www.existential-risk.org/concept.html

Global

Local

Personal

EndurableTerminalINTENSITY

Carisstolen

Recession

Ozonethinning

Death

Genocide

Existential

SCOPE


RISK AND CLIMATE POLICYWhat are the chances?Warming Impacts Probability

(Parispath)

4°C “Incompatiblewithanorganizedglobalcommunity… likelytobebeyond‘adaptation’…highprobabilityofnotbeingstable.”(Anderson)“Wemighthavesomethinglikeaglobalcivilwar”withlessthan1b.surviving.(Schellnhuber)

3°C “Challengeregionalandevennationalidentities…nuclearwarispossible…socialconsequencesrangefromincreasedreligiousfervortooutrightchaos.”Acarbonbudgetfor2°C (50% probability)hasa“fattail”riskofexceeding3°C

http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/20.full;IrishTimes13March2009;TheAgeofConsequences2007;30+%probabilitybasedonMITscenarios:Parispledgesmet andretainedinthepost-2030period,nofurthercommitments


RISKFailure of imagination

QueenElizabeth5November2008

“Whydidnooneforeseethetiming,extentandseverityoftheGlobalFinancialCrisis?”(toLSEeconomists)

“Apsychologyofdenialgrippedthefinancialandcorporateworld.…Thefailureofthecollectiveimaginationofmanybrightpeople…tounderstandtheriskstothesystemasawhole.”ReplyfromtheBritishAcademyJuly2009


RISKFailure of imagination

Source:“ForecastingFailure”,OilChangeInternational&GreenpeaceMarch2017,IPCCScenariosDatabaseRogelj etal,Shell,Exxon,BP

“OilCompanieshavenotyetreconciledthemselvestothemeaningoftheParisAgreement”FinancialTimes,London,27thMay2016


RISK

Failure of imagination

Excusing“blackelephant”eventsas“blackswan”eventsisafailureofimagination.

“Black elephants” “Blackswans”

• Knowableandimaginable• Unpalatable“knownunknowns”

• Random/highlyimprobable“Unknownunknowns”

• Globalfinancialcrisis• Iraqwarconsequences• Titanic,Chernobyl, Fukushima• Globalwarmingthreatto

humancivilisation

• Asteroidstrike• “New”diseasese.g.AIDS• StartofWW1(Franz

Ferdinandassassination)• Einstein’sdiscoveries

www.thinkunthinkable.org


SOLUTIONS

The way forward• Recognise climatechangeasanexistential

risktoglobalfinancialandsocietalstability.• Brutallyhonestarticulationofrisks,

opportunitiesandresponsetimeframe.• Newexistentialriskmanagement

techniques outsideconventionalpolitics.• Globalleadershipandintegratedpolicy.• Anemergencyresponse- notalarmismbut

rational“duecareanddiligence”ofanexistentialrisk,honestlyassessed.


SOLUTIONS

Global response & transformation• Apollomoonshot• Solar/battery/Tesla• MarshallPlan• Chineseeconomy• Digital revolution

After Pearl Harbour, US economy transformed to

world’s largest producer of military goods in a year

Wehavethematerialcapacity.Dowehavetheimaginationandtheleadership?


“Whoatthehighestlevelsofleadershipincorporatesandpublicservicewilltaketheboldrisks(thatarerequired),notgraduallyorincrementally,butdecisivelyinlinewiththenewscaleandspeedthat‘unthinkables’emerge.”NikGowingandChrisLangdon,ThinkingtheUnthinkable,CIMA,2015

Thebigquestion


HONESTY ● IMAGINATION ● LEADERSHIP

the evidence-based case for urgent climate action · ian dunlop & david spratt 2017 facing...

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