the external environment for developing countries january 2010 the world bank development economics...
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The External Environment for Developing Countries
January 2010The World Bank
Development EconomicsProspects Group
Momentum of production is moderating toward more sustainable rates
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Developing excl China
High Income
World
industrial production (percent change, saar)
Source: World Bank, Development Prospects Group.
World trade picks up steam as stimulus measures boost imports
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
OECD imports
Developing imports
Source: World Bank, Development Prospects Group.
goods import volumes, OECD and developing countries (ch%, saar)
Industrial countries
Improvements in labor markets now setting the tone for increased spending
change in employment (‘000, 3mma) [L]; income and retail sales x autos, ch% (saar) [R]
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Source: U.S. Departments of Labor and Commerce.
retail x autos [R]
change in employment [L]
Durable goods orders and factory output momentum fade in late 2009
durable goods orders, mfgr output, ch% (saar) [L]; ISM mfgr headline index (3mma) [R]
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
35
40
45
50
55
Durable goods orders [L]
Manufacturing production [L]
ISM Mfgr index [R]
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
Pick-up in energy and commodity prices lifts CPI to positive territory (y/y)
consumer and producer price indices, ch% (saar and 3mma yr/yr)
1/1/2007 5/1/2007 9/1/2007 1/1/2008 5/1/2008 9/1/2008 1/1/2009 5/1/2009 9/1/2009-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Source: U.S. Department of Labor.
CPI saar
CPI yr/yr
PPI saar
Japan spending under pressure from rising unemployment, falling wages
unemployment rate (%) [L]; real HH expenditures, cash wages, ch% (y/y) [R]
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-093.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
Source: Japan Cabinet Office (EPA).
Cash wages [R]
Unemployment rate [L]
Q3-2008 Q4-2008 Q1-2009 Q2-2009 Q3-2009-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20Corp GDI RES GDI
fixed investment, business and residential (homebuilding), ch% saar
Japan’s corporate and residential investment (homebuilding) in the doldrums
Source: Japan Cabinet Office (EPA).
Japan exports up sharply at year endas OECD imports revive
Japan machinery orders, export volumes and industrial production, ch% saar
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Machinery or-ders
Japan export volumes
Manufacturing production
Source: Japan EPA through Thomson/Datastream.
Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-1075
88
100
113
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
Euro Area sentiment up in the new yearIFO survey (overall and expectations) [left]; Euro Area
consumer confidence [right]
IFO- expectations [L]
Source: IFO and European Commission.
Euro Area Consumer Confidence [R]
IFO- overall [L]
Euro Area unemployment worsens quickly placing damper on spending
number of unemployed (millions) [L]; retail sales volume, ch% (3mma, y/y) [R]
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-0910
11
12
13
14
15
16
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
Source: Eurostat through Thomson/Datastream.
Euro Arearetail volumes [R]
Number of unemployed [L]
German exports pick-up at end-year on strong orders for capital equipment
German export orders, export volumes and industrial production, ch% saar
Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Export orders
German export volumes
Manufacturing production
Source: Bundesbank through Thomson/Datastream.
Industrial production
Momentum of industrial production is moderating
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Developing excl China
High Income
World
Source: World Bank calculations based on Thomson Datastream data
Industrial production (percent change, saar)
Chinese output momentum supported by domestic demand and a pick-up in exports
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
0
5
10
15
20
253m/3m saar (right axis)
Industrial production (percent change, saar)
Source: World Bank calculations based on Thomson Datastream data
Euro zone production rises on stronger demand for intermediate and capital goods
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
3m/3m saar
Year-on-year
Industrial production (percent change, saar)
Source: World Bank calculations based on Thomson Datastream data
International trade
Jan-00 Aug-01 Mar-03 Oct-04 May-06 Dec-07 Jul-09-1150
-950
-750
-550
-350
-150
50
250
450
USA total balance
China total balance
Global imbalances have begun to stabilize at lower levels
USA excluding oil
Total goods trade balance, minus all crude oil imports, US$ bn, sa. annualized
China excluding oil
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Haver Analytics.
Foreign demand for high-income exports weakens in fourth quarter
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-0
6
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-0
7
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-0
8
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-0
9
Jan-10
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
United States [R]
Germany [L]
Export orders, Germany and the United States (ISM)
Source: Bundesbank and Institute for Supply Management.
Export growth accelerating in developing countries
volume of exports, 3m/3m moving average, saar % chg
-70
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90 Developing East Asia & PacificLatin America South AsiaEurope & Central Asia
Source: DECPG.
Oil prices
Oil prices rise above $80/bbl
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10
$/bbl mb/d
Oil price [L scale]
OPEC Production [R]
Source: IEA and DECPG.
U.S. crude oil inventories
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10
M bbl
5-year high-low ranges
Source: U.S. Department of Energy and DECPG.
Natural gas and coal prices
0
4
8
12
16
Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10
US Gas
Europe Gas
LNG Japan
Coal Australia
$/mmbtu
Source: World Gas Intelligence, International Coal Report, and DECPG.
Non-oil commodity prices
100
150
200
250
300
Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10
Beverages
Raw Materials
Food
Agriculture prices continue to increase on supply constraints
(2000=100)
Source: DECPG.
Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-100
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
CopperZincAluminumLead
Metals prices rise on expectations of stonger demand $/ton
Source: LME and DECPG.
Gold prices come off their highs
Jan-03
May-03Oct-0
3Mar-0
4Jul-0
4Dec-04
Apr-05Sep-05
Jan-06Jun-06
Nov-06Mar-0
7Aug-07
Jan-08
May-08Oct-0
8Feb-09
Jul-09Dec-09
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
$/toz
Gold in dollars
Gold in euros
Source: LME and DECPG.
International Finance
A surge in bank lending at year end
Source: DECPG.
Gross capital flows to emerging markets
$ billion
H1 Q3 Q4 Total H1 Q3 Q4 Dec Total
Total 258 82 50 390 110 99 139 45 348
Bonds 53 9 3 65 36 33 46 7 115
Banks 151 63 43 257 42 34 47 28 123
Equity 54 10 4 68 32 32 45 10 109
Lat. America 61 18 10 90 37 37 57 16 130
Bonds 17 1 2 20 15 18 29 5 61
E. Europe 99 35 23 157 22 21 28 8 71
Bonds 27 7 0.4 35 13 11 9 1 33
Asia 69 18 10 98 45 33 48 19 126
Bonds 7 0 0 7 6 3 7 0 16
Others 28 11 6 45 7 8 6 2 21
2008 2009
EM bond issuance activity off to a strong start in 2010
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
2
4
6
8
10
12Avg. 1998-08 2009 2010
sovereign bond issuance, monthly, bn USD
Source: Dealogic and DECPG staff calculations.
EM assets appear fairly strong at the start of 2010
Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
300
350
400
450
500
MSCI-EM$ index [L]
Source: JPMorgan-Chase and Bloomberg.
MSCI-EM in USD [L]; EMBIG bond index [R]
EMBIG bond index [R]
Currencies
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-101.230
1.270
1.310
1.350
1.390
1.430
1.470
1.510
1.550 85.00
87.50
90.00
92.50
95.00
97.50
100.00
102.50
105.00
Source: Thomson/Datastream.
yen/USD
USD/Euro (inverse)
Dollar recoups 2.5% over 2010 to date on more upbeat growth expectations
USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right]
Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-100.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Expectations for growth move in U.S. favor Consensus mean GDP growth: forecast for
2010 sampled during 2009/10
Source: Consensus Economics LLC.
Forecast Date in 2009/10:
Japan
Euro Area
United States
The External Environment for Developing Countries
January 2010The World Bank
Development EconomicsProspects Group