the external environment for developing...

March 20, 2008

The External Environment for Developing Countries March 2008

Overview Spreading financial havoc was illustrated this month by the “fire sale” of investment bank Bear Stearns. The resulting slump in equity markets was global in proportion, with many bourses declining 10% since early March. Exchanges in India and China dropped more-than 17%.

Dramatic moves were undertaken by the Fed- cutting the Fed funds rate by 75 basis points to 2.25% and using unorthodox methods to provide liquidity to the financial system. This carried the side effect that the dollar dropped 4% against the euro since the start of March and 7% vis-à-vis the yen. Most developing countries also saw their currencies appreciate, though to a lesser extent. Exceptions were Turkey and South Africa with depreciations of some 5% since early March.

Tightening of credit conditions led to a further slowing in capital flows to $22 billion in February, less than 40% of the average monthly flow of 2007. Few sovereigns came to the bond market, with Hungary, Latvia and Turkey accounting for 90% of issuance. Equity placement fell to $3 billion, less than 20% of the 2007 monthly average.

Prices of many commodities surged more-than 20% since the start of February, in large measure reflecting activities of investors searching for yield, or aiming to hedge against a falling dollar and increasing inflation pressures. Recent international food price increases have generally not been mirrored in domestic food price inflation to date (see Focus).

U.S. imports will likely decline in 2008 as the dollar weakens and the U.S. economy slows sharply. Developing countries’ growth will increasingly depend on domestic demand and exports to Europe and Japan, boosted by the strong euro and yen. This rotation of growth away from the United States is already well underway.

75

80

85

90

95

100

Jan-08 Jan-08 Jan-08 Feb-08 Feb-08 Mar-08

Source: Thomson/Datastream.

Large-scale losses across global bourses in the last weeks

index January 1, 2008 = 100

DAX

TOPIX

Dow Jones

MSCI

1.290

1.330

1.370

1.410

1.450

1.490

1.530

1.570

Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08

96

100

104

108

112

116

120

124


yen/USD

USD/Euro (inverse)

Dollar plummets to all-time lowsagainst the majors

USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right]

This monthly brief was prepared by a team of the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG), led by Hans Timmer, and comprising Mick Riordan (world economy, high-tech, foreign exchange); John Baffes (trade); Betty Dow and Shane Streifel (primary commodities), Eung Ju Kim (finance), Cristina Savsecu (production) and Gauresh Rajadhyaksha (high-frequency data and Annex). The note reflects the views of the team, but is not formally cleared by the World Bank Group.

March 20, 2008 Ext ernal Environm ent f or Developing Count r ies page 2

Global Indicators

Global Indicators (Percentage change per annum, unless otherwise specified)

2005 2006 2007e 2008f GDP volume: World 3.4 3.9 3.6 3.3 Memo item: World GDP at PPP weights 4.8 5.3 5.2 4.9 High-income countries 2.6 2.9 2.6 2.2 Developing countries 6.8 7.5 7.4 7.1 Industrial production: World (incl China) 4.5 5.8 5.5 ... High-income countries 2.1 3.6 2.5 2.6 ... Developing countries (incl China) 9.5 10.1 11.5 11.4 ...

Export volume (GNFS): World (incl China) 7.8 10.1 9.2 7.6 High-income countries 6.3 9.2 8.2 6.3 Developing countries (incl China) 12.3 12.7 12.0 11.0 Trade Prices ($): Manufacturing (MUV) 0.0 1.6 3.9 2.3 5.3 0.8 Oil ($/bbl) 53.4 64.3 71.2 84.1 Non-oil commodities 13.4 24.5 13.1 -3.1

Nominal interest rates: $LIBOR (percent p.a.) 3.73 5.23 5.30 3.50 4.80 €LIBOR (percent p.a.) 2.24 3.23 4.30 4.00 Financial flows FDI ($billion) 282 288 ... Gross Capital flowsa ($billion) 361 494 683 103 Equity placement ($bn) 59 111 194 17 Bond financing ($bn) 126 137 146 22 Lending ($bn) 175 246 343 64 Source: DECPG, March 2008.

Note(s): a. Gross inflows 2008 estimated on data to date. Figures in bold represent changes this month.

High-tech markets: Snapshot (Jan-08 data) Dec-07 Jan-08

World semiconductor sales ($) 1.3 -0.7 G-3 new high-tech orders ($) -7.3 6.4 Production (ch%) World 15.5 15.2 United States 16.0 13.9 Japan 8.3 -6.4 East Asia 20.5 17.2 Exports ($, ch%) World 10.3 15.0 United States -0.5 7.3 Japan 18.4 15.1 East Asia 10.8 16.8 Sources: SIA, National agencies, Haver Analytics, Thomson/Datastream. Note: growth computed as 3m/3m saar rates. Sales, orders and exports in USD terms; production in volume.

Projections found in the indicators table there are sourced from the final version of Global Economic Prospects-2008, which was released in January 2008. The ANNEX TABLES at the back of this report now feature updated projections for 2008-09 from various private- and public organizations. And the DECPG website Global Economic Monitor (GEM) continues to be enhanced—broadening the coverage of daily data and improving data access. We hope you find GEM useful for your daily work.


United States Dramatic moves by the Fed. The potential for freezing-up of U.S. financial markets heightened over the first-half of March. In response, the Fed’s FOMC initiated dramatic moves to shore-up markets and support a flagging economy. Plans were set to lend up to $200 billion in exchange for mortgage-backed securities from commercial- and for the first time- investment banks. This program complimented earlier offers to make $200 billion available to banks to boost liquidity. The Fed was involved in negotiations over the “fire sale” of stricken investment bank Bear Stearns, and enacted a discount rate reduction at an emergency meeting (its first weekend emergency session in three decades). These actions culminated with a cut in Fed Funds by a significant 75 basis points to 2.25% on March 18th, triggering the strongest Wall Street rally in 5 years. Demand edges lower. February’s 63,000 job loss surprised analysts, coming on the heels of a 22,000 contraction in January. Payrolls at builders fell 39,000, an eighth consecutive month of scale-backs. And manufacturing job losses amounted to the biggest layoffs since 2003 at 52,000 in the month. Incomes and expenditure showed zero real growth in January, as wage gains eased toward 1% (y/y) tied to softening labor markets. In turn, February’s retail sales fell 0.6% (m/m). In real terms (deflated by headline CPI), sales fell from 1.7% in October 2007 to decline of 1% (y/y) in February, a sharp decline. Industrial production dropped in February (0.5%, m/m), on hard times in autos and a possible decline in investment. Inflation raises its head. With Fed Funds at 2.25%, there is little further room for rate reductions, while inflation is accelerating setting an effective “limit” on how much further the central bank can boost liquidity. Headline consumer prices surged to a 6.4% pace in January (saar) on the back of fuels and food price increases; headline PPI jumped to a 13.5% pace. Both consumer and producer prices eased in February, but stand 4.2%- and 7% above year earlier levels respectively.

Employment declines feed intosoftening retail sales in February

sales volume, ch% 3mmay/y [left]; delta employment, 3mma [right]

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

01/15/06 05/15/06 09/15/06 01/15/07 05/15/07 09/15/07 01/15/08-250255075100125150175200225250275

Retail sales volume [L]

Change in Employment [R]

Source: Departments of Commerce and Labor.

U.S. inflation picks up on higher energyand food- a possible restraint on the Fed

headline CPI ad PPI, ch% 3mma y/y

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08

Headline CPI

Headline PPI

Source: U.S. Department of Labor.


Japan

Japan GDP revised down. Following robust first estimates for Japan’s fourth-quarter GDP growth at 3.7% (saar), results of the Finance Ministry’s survey of corporate investment showed that—rather than posting double digit outlays on plant and equipment, capital spending ranged between gains of 6% to 8%. Residential investment plummeted 32% in the quarter—grounded in regulatory changes which created a log-jam in building permits. But the contribution of net exports to GDP picked up from 1.8 points in the first estimate to 2 points in the second, with Japan’s exports expanding a strong 13.2% against a meager 2.2% advance in imports (saar). GDP was revised to a 3.5% gain in the quarter (saar), placing growth for 2007 at 2%. Sentiment wanes. Japan is witnessing a string of positive inflation reports, highly unusual for this economy. CPI increased for a fourth month in January, rising to 0.9% (y/y) the fastest in 9 years. Consumer sentiment has waned on this development (Tokyo confidence down to 35.5 in February from 45 in September), as well as the dramatic 22% falloff in Japan’s equity markets. Wages continue to decline- down 2.4% in January (y/y). And the yen has appreciated a full 14% against the dollar since the start of 2008 to ¥97. Despite this background, retail sales and household spending surprised to the upside in January, with the former increasing 1% (y/y); the latter a strong 2%. However, given the environment for consumers, households will remain a question mark throughout 2008. External boost to continue?. Emerging economies are now the destination for more-than half of Japan’s overseas shipments. This as sales to the United States dropped for a fifth month in January. Exports gained 0.5% in the month, but momentum is fading, given earlier weakness in shipments. At the same time, Japan’s import prices lofted 11.1% in January (y/y), and with import values up 29%, the annualized pace of import volume growth jumped to 14.2% from 9% in December (saar). Under these circumstances, contributions to growth from net exports may diminish into the first quarter of 2008.

1.3

3.7 3.5

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

Q3-2007 F Q4-2007 P Q4-2007 FSource: Cabinet Office and DECPG calculations.

Revised Japan GDP bumps Q4-growthto 3.5% from 3.7% on investment

growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points

Net exportsStocks

Fixed InvestmentGovernmentConsumption

Growth 2007 2.0%

70

80

90

100

110

Jan-07

Feb-07

Mar-07

Apr-07

May-07

Jun-07

Jul-07

Aug-07

Sep-07

Oct-07

Nov-07

Dec-07

Jan-08

Feb-08

Mar-08

95

100

105

110

115

120

125


Yen strength and plummeting equitieshit consumer confidence hard

Yen per dollar [right] and TOPIX index January 1, 2007 = 100

TOPIX [L]

Yen [R]

Japan’s GDP boost from net exports may fade over 2008

goods export and import volumes, ch% saar

-25-20-15-10-505

10152025

Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08

Source: Cabinet Office-- Thomson/Datastream.

Export volumes

Import volumes


Euro Area

GDP slows sharply in fourth quarter. Growth in the Euro Area disappointed for the final quarter of 2007. GDP gains halved from the third to the fourth quarters, from 3% to 1.5% (saar), as domestic demand slumped. Private and government consumption fell 0.3% (saar) while business investment eased to 3% from 4.7% growth earlier. De-stocking knocked a further 0.6 points from growth. The sole support for GDP derived from a 1.6 point contribution form net exports. But the ingredients of this stimulus were far from dynamic—exports dropped to a 2.2% advance in the quarter from 8.8% in the previous period (saar), while imports compressed 1.5% in the wake of a 10% gain. GDP growth for the year registered 2.6%, down from 2.9% in 2006. These figures prompted widespread mark-downs of expectations for 2008. Mixed developments. The euro has appreciated some 7.2% vis-à-vis the dollar through mid-March, putting a damper on exports to the U.S. market. Yet German shipments to countries outside Europe gained 12% in January, while exports to EU partners advanced 7.7%. Similar developments in France are underway supporting production gains of 1.2%. German retail sales increased in January for the first in four months, up a hefty 1.6% (m/m), the strongest showing since April 2007. To the downside, inflation has picked-up across the Zone, with HICP increasing 3.2% in February (y/y). Business and consumer confidence took another leg down in February, according to the European Commission. And following gains at year-end, German factory orders dropped 1.5% in January (m/m), with export orders halving in momentum from 28.8% in December to 14%. (saar). ECB retracts. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet attempted at the last central bank press conference to put an end to widespread speculation that ECB would reduce policy rates in the face of weakening economic activity and the record-high level of the euro. Rather M. Trichet continues to have his eyes firmly set on the ratcheting of inflation in the Zone to a decade high, now having eclipsed the ECB’s 2% target rate for 8 years running.

1.0

3.0

1.5

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

Q2-2007 Q3-2007 Q4-2007 Source: Eurostat and DECPG calculations.

Euro-Zone GDP slows to 1.5% growthin fourth quarter on sluggish demand

growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage pointsNet exports

Fixed investmentConsumptionGovernment

Change in stocks

Growth 2007 2.6%

German factory orders drop in January foreign orders halve in momentum

factory orders, total, domestic, overseas, ch% saar

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


Source: Bundesbank-- Thomson/Datastream.

Total orders

Foreign orders

Domestic orders

ECB: policy rates will not becut as growth slows and HICP rises

HICP inflation (ch% y/y) [L]; EA IP ch% saar [R]

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-080.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

Source: Eurostat and Bundesbank.

Euro Area IP (mfg) [R]

HICP inflation (y/y) [L]


Industrial Production

Weakness on Euro-zone’s industrial output horizon... Growth in industrial production for the Euro-zone is expected to weaken during the first two quarters of 2008, reaching negative territory by the second quarter. This appears likely despite stronger-than-expected outturns for January (IP gained 1.9% in Germany, 1.3% in Italy and 1.2% in France (m/m)). There are Inexorable headwinds to IP in the Euro Area, chief among which are global financial uncertainties, high energy prices, weaker global demand and loss of external competitiveness of exports due to the sharp appreciation of the euro. ...softer global demand will add to woes of U.S. manufacturers. Industrial output in the United States has benefited from robust expansion in export volumes, which have partially offset the weakness in domestic demand. The 0.5% contraction in industrial output in February (m/m) following flat output in January suggests that industrial sector performance remains very weak in the first quarter. Notwithstanding a much weaker U.S. dollar, slowing global demand is expected to take a toll on exports and industrial output growth over the course of the year, compounding the adverse effects of disappointing domestic demand. Japan’s industrial sector gains are viewed to shift to lower gear. Exports from Japan are expected to offer some relief for industrial production in coming months, but the trend in production growth will deteriorate as corporate activity, one of the main drivers of economic expansion, is hit by higher costs and the stronger yen. Industrial output contracted sharply (2.2% in January (m/m)), after a 1.4% gain the previous month, suggesting that the first quarter outturn will be weak. And the loss of momentum in capital spending conjunction with weaker global demand will sap industrial output’s recent strength.

-5

-3

0

3

5

Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08

Sharp downtrend expected forEuro Area industrial output growth6mn/6mn ar

data forecast

Source: DECPG

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15


Robust external demand cushionedU.S. IP from weak domestic demand

6mn/6mn ar

Industrial production

Export volumes

Source: DECPG

data forecast

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15


IP trend growth in Japan is also projected to deteriorate

6mn/6mn ar

Source: DECPG

data forecast


High-tech markets Downshift in orders suggests leaner times ahead. In sync with the slowing of domestic demand across the OECD centers, new orders for high-tech goods received by manufacturers in these countries slumped in the last months—though most recent (and volatile) Japanese data show a sharp pickup. New U.S. orders for computers, electronics and communications equipment fell from recent-high 24% growth in September to 11% decline in February (saar). For Europe, orders fell by a sharp 16% in February. And in the wake of extreme volatility in Japanese orders, January figures jumped 50% from 12% in the preceding month (saar). Against the markdown of forecasts for OECD economic activity, the bullish sentiment behind high-tech has given way to bearish-, and prospects for production and trade have dimmed. Sales and output wane. Global semiconductor sales are a good proxy for high-tech goods demand, given the increasing semi-chip density of products from business info-processing and computing, notably, to the widening array of consumer electronic products, e.g. cell phones, digital cameras etc. Chip sales enjoyed a rally over 2004-06 (up 14.5% per year); faltered in 2007, and are now in decline. Global sales dipped 0.7% in January (saar), on the back of a 5.6% decline in the United States, 2.6% falloff in Europe and zero growth in East Asia. High-tech goods production, which had been up a solid 13% in 2007, is now falling in Japan and easing in Europe-, the United States and other East Asia. Global output growth diminished from a 27% pace in September to 15.2% in January (saar). Exports strong. Of the set of high-tech indicators, trade is the last to display changes related to sales and output trends. For example, orders backlogs- and logistic delays can widen the times-pan between contracting and shipping. Trade in tech goods continues to show strong growth, though increasingly mixed across the globe. World exports were up 7.7% in December (y/y), with 10% gains in East Asia (x Japan). January data shows U.S. exports still in decline, with Japanese shipments easing to 4.5% from 6% in December.

-15-10-505

1015202530354045

Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Source: National Agencies and DECPG calculations.

High-tech orders slumpingin the U.S. and Europe

G-3 orders for high-tech manufactures, US dollar terms, ch% saar

G-3 High-tech orders [L]

United States [R]

Europe [R]

Semiconductor sales and tech output wane over late 2007 and early 2008

semi-chip sales ch% y/y [L]; output of high-tech goods ch% saar [R]

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12


10

15

20

25

30

Source: SIA, Thomson/Datastream, Haver.

Production [R]

Semiconductor sales

Exports mixed across the globe global exports of high-tech goods in USD terms, ch% 3mma y/y

-8-5-30358

10131518

Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07

World

East Asia x Japan

Source: National Agencies and DECPG calculations.

USAJapan


International Trade U.S. export momentum eases. Despite the record weakness of the dollar, U.S. exports have been drifting only gradually higher over the last 4 months to reach a 14.8% growth pace in January (3 month moving average, y/y). Exports reached a record high in the third quarter of 2007, exceeding 22.7% growth in August the highest recorded advance of the last decade. Strong exports during first half of 2007 were driven in part by strong demand for machinery and equipment, and lofted by high commodity prices. When viewed on a momentum basis, the falloff in growth becomes clearer: nominal exports eased from 30% gains in September to 12.4% in January (saar); and export volumes from 26% to 2.8%. This raises concern that the boost to U.S. GDP growth from the external sector may wane over 2008. World and high-income country exports slow. Following double-digit growth during the third and fourth quarters of 2007, global and high-income country export volumes began to slow, reaching a low of 3.1% and 7.2% respectively in January (saar). Since the second quarter of 2007, the “growth gap” (accounted for by the developing countries) has been widening, adding to evidence concerning the de-linking between developing and high income country exports. For the first and second quarters of 2008, we expect a rebound for world and high-income exports, partially closing the gap, but still leaving this measure large by historical standards—near a 4 percentage point difference during the second quarter of 2008. Developing country exports strengthen. Historically, developing country- and Chinese exports have moved in close synchronization, albeit with a 15 percentage-point difference (26.5% versus 9.5%). However, the June-July 2007 decline of China’s exports to zero territory (3mma, y/y), and subsequent recovery was quite dissimilar to developing economy’s continued strength, which during the last quarter of 2007 surpassed China’s growth by a large margin. During the final quarter of 2007, developing country exports reached a record 14.7% increase.

U.S. export growth easing into the first months of 2008

goods exports: values and volumes, percent change 3mma/y/y and saar

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


Source: Department of Commerce-- Thomson/Datastream.

Value year/year

Volume year/year

Value saar

Volume saar

World and high-income exports to slowbut revive somewhat at mid-2008

goods export volumes, ch% saar

0

5

10

15

20

2003M1 2003M10 2004M7 2005M4 2006M1 2006M10 2007M7 2008M4

Source: National Agencies through Thomson/Datastream.

High-income exports

World exports

Exports from China and other developing economies up in January

goods export volumes, ch% saar

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

2003M1 2003M10 2004M7 2005M4 2006M1 2006M10 2007M7

Source: National Agencies through Thomson/Datastream.

Developing ex China

China exports


Commodity Prices

Oil and other commodity prices surge on turmoil in financial markets and concerns about supply. Crude oil prices (WTI) increased to above $110/bbl and gold prices jumped above $1,000/toz on concerns about inflation, the falling dollar and troubled financial markets. And a number of supply issues continue to underpin many commodity markets, e.g., power-disruptions, strikes, project delays, adverse weather, low stocks and strong competition for agriculture acreage. For oil, non-OPEC supply prospects continue to be downgraded for this year, and OPEC decided against putting more oil onto the market. Moreover, the group put off its next meeting until September, and this provided bullish sentiment for the market. Crude oil stocks up on weak demand. U.S. crude oil stocks are increasing seasonally due to refinery maintenance, rising imports and weakening oil demand. For the latest 4-week period, U.S. oil demand fell nearly 3%, with only gasoline recording a gain—a moderate 0.4%. Weak margins for refined products are prompting refiners to cut runs, and tight credit conditions are also discouraging refiners from holding discretionary stocks. Gasoline inventories are extremely high due to weak demand, the return of refineries from earlier outages and increasing volumes of ethanol flowing into the gasoline pool. Consequently end-use prices are relatively low compared to what might be expected with crude oil prices well above $100/bbl. Futures prices jump to record levels. Since early February near-by crude oil futures have risen more than 25% or $23/bbl, while more-distant futures rose nearly 20% or about $16/bbl. WTI oil futures on NYMEX reached record levels on March 13, when for the first time the entire forward curve couched above $100/bbl. The curve also moved into steep backwardation, a sign that typically indicates tight physical markets. To the extent that the forward curve reflects expectations, it suggests high prices in future driven by demand in developing countries, non-OPEC supply constraints and the belief that OPEC will intervene if necessary to support an ever-higher (albeit unknown) floor to prices.

Gold and Oil at all-time highs

600

700

800

900

1000

Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Gold $/toz Oil $/bbl

Oil

Gold

Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group.

Crude oil inventories rise seasonally exacerbated by weak demand

270

280

290

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09

M bbl

Source: U.S. Department of Energy and DECPG Commodities Group.

5-year high-low ranges

WTI Futures Prices - NYMEX

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13

Mar 13 2008

$/bbl Monthly contract prices to Dec 2013* on select dates in 2007-08

* No monthly futures prices for 2013 for contracts trading before Nov 07

Jan 16 2007

Aug 15 2007

Feb 6 2008


Agriculture prices continue surge. Ag prices recorded some of the largest increases this year, though a number have sold-off in recent days due to improved supply prospects. Rice is up 43% (y-t-d) due to export restrictions in India and Vietnam, and given the impact of rising wheat prices, up 30% on expected record-low stocks and poor winter wheat crops in the United States and China. Vegetable prices, though slipping lately, are up sharply this year on strong demand for food and biofuels. Cocoa prices climbed nearly 40% on dry weather and a strike in Cote d’Ivoire (now suspended), while robusta coffee prices (up 27%) recently declined on better supply prospects in Brazil. Copper prices up on falling stocks and supply disruptions. Copper prices are up more than 40% from their lows of December, briefly exceeding 2006 highs due to falling stocks and a series of supply disruptions and project delays. Copper has the tightest fundamentals among all main metals despite concerns about slowing global demand. Power problems in China and South Africa have affected mining operations more broadly this year, but severe drought in Chile—which produces more than one-third of the world’s copper—could result in power shortages and impact future copper output. Other metals gains have been in aluminum (power shortages in China and South Africa) and tin (supply problems in Indonesia and China). China’s metal consumption soars. Global metal consumption (the six main metals traded on the LME) grew 6.3% or 4.5 million tons in 2007. Much of the growth was in China, which jumped by nearly one-third or 5.8 million tons, accelerating from average growth of 16% in the previous seven years. Growth last year was led by a 43% surge in aluminum consumption and 35% gain in copper. China is by far the largest consumer of all main metals, as well as steel, coal and other commodities. Metals consumption in the world outside China dropped 2.4%, with declines in across all OECD centers, Asia and Latin America. One of the more striking features is that copper consumption in North America declined by nearly one-third since 2000.

75100125150175200225250275300

Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08

Grains

Fats & Oils

Other Food

Beverages

Food and beverage prices surge(1990=100)

Source: DECPG Commodities Group.

Copper prices rebound on falling stocks and tight supplies

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

7500

8000

8500

9000

Jan-06Jan-07

Jan-08

75

100

125

150

175

200

225$/ton ‘000 tons

Copper price

LME stocks

Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group.

World Refined Metal Consumption*

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

China

Europe

N America

Other Asia

OECD Pac

Latin A

FSU/EE

ME

Africa

‘000 tons

* Aluminum, Copper, Lead, Nickel, Tin, Zinc


International Finance

Flows stagnate. Capital flows slowed still further in February to $22 billion, as bond issuance and equity placement fell. Bond financing dropped to $4 billion, continuing January’s stagnation—and typically the first two months are the most active of the year. The falloff in bonds is linked to turmoil in credit markets, weighing heavily on the asset class, and pressures are unlikely to ease soon. Few came to market in February, with Hungary, Latvia and Turkey accounting for 90% of issuance. New equity placement fell to $3 billion, much below the $16 billion monthly average for 2007. And bank lending was stable at $16 billion, with emerging Europe (especially Russia) accounting for 50% of borrowing. World equities volatile. Following January’s devastating decline, global equities bounced-back during much of February, before a sharp sell off at month-end. EM equities outperformed mature markets with a gain of 7.3% in February, with most OECD markets in negative territory. Stocks plummeted once more in mid-March on news of the collapse of a hedge fund and worsening liquidity conditions. Losses were partially reversed following the hefty 75 basis-point (bp) cut in Fed Funds on March 18th, but stocks remain substantially below 2007 peaks. Credit market turmoil. Credit spreads widened as credit default swaps (CDS) reached new highs in mid-March, underscoring the deterioration in perceptions of credit quality. The steep rise in CDS spreads has been caused by unwinding of highly leveraged positions in structured products by many investors (such as collateralized debt obligations), prompted by heavy trading losses, rising margin calls and tighter lending provisions. This promotes a “vicious cycle” as forced liquidation drives the cost of protection higher. The cost of hedging U.S. corporate bonds against default increased to a record 450 bps in mid-March, up sharply from 268 bps in January. And in Europe, risk premiums on company debt climbed as high as 628 bps on March 14th. Emerging markets have also been affected, but to a more limited degree.

Continued stagnation in flows to emerging markets in February

Source: DECPG Finance Team.

G ro ss cap ita l flo w s to em erg in g m arkets

$ b illionQ 1 T o ta l Jan F eb Q 1 T o ta l Jan F eb

T o ta l 96 494 36 55 166 683 29 22 B onds 42 137 20 19 58 146 7 4 B anks 39 246 10 20 81 343 16 16 E qu ity 15 111 5 16 26 194 6 3

La t. A m erica 23 116 10 10 38 157 8 3 B onds 14 41 4 4 20 45 4 0E . E urope 36 179 13 25 81 252 4 11 B onds 17 64 10 11 28 64 1 3A s ia 25 153 10 11 30 213 16 4 B onds 8 19 5 3 8 23 3 0O the rs 12 45 3 8 16 60 1 4

20082006 2007

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07 Feb-08


Continued turmoil in world stock markets

Equity price indexes, January 1, 2007 = 100

Eurofirst-300

Nikkei-225

S&P-500

MSCI

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08Source: JPMorgan-Chase.

Credit risk soars to record levelsCredit default swap spreads (CDSs), basis points

CDSs on the Europe index

CDSs on the North American index CDSs on Emerging Market Index


Currencies

Dollar hits fresh lows against euro. The tumultuous background for foreign exchange trading in March saw the dollar plummet to fresh lows against the euro—a New York close of $1.5718, with intra-day European trade ranging in on $1 60 on March 17th. Through mid-March, the euro was up 2.9% on the month and a full 7.2% since the start of 2008. The yen strengthened by 3.6% to mid-March (and 10.4% over the year) to break-through the ¥100 barrier and come to stand at ¥97 on the 17th of the month, strongest since 1995. The key factors underlying the fall (free-fall?) of the dollar remain—widening interest differentials favoring euro-denominated assets, and increasing pessimism over U.S. economic prospects. Fed actions leave little support for the greenback. The series of dramatic Fed actions undertaken over the course of the month to provide substantial further amounts of liquidity to the financial system and attempt to shore-up the slumping economy had the effect of allowing the U.S. currency to drift lower without any form of “safety net” in place. Moreover, no apparent concern on the part of U.S. authorities was expressed about this circumstance (though much heard from Europe and Japan). The 75 basis point cut in Fed Funds on March 18, with no change in ECB rates (and none likely forthcoming, according to M. Trichet) opened the gap in euro-market interest rates to a whopping 230 basis points favoring the euro. Expectations for further widening of this differential have kept the U.S. unit under continuing pressure. Emerging market currencies appreciating in step. With the notable exceptions of the Indonesia rupiah, Philippine peso and Turkish lira, which have eased against the dollar over the last weeks, a sample of emerging market currencies has more-or–less kept pace with the appreciation of the majors. Since the start of 2008, the Brazilian rei is up 3% against the dollar, the rouble and Hungarian forint 5%, the Czech koruna 12%.

1.290

1.330

1.370

1.410

1.450

1.490

1.530

1.570


96

100

104

108

112

116

120

124


yen/USD

USD/Euro (inverse)

Dollar plummets against the majorsUSD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right]

Interest differentials now at 230 bp favoring euro-based assets

US-LIBOR, EURIBOR in percent

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

4-Jun-07

5-Jul-07

5-Aug-07

5-Sep-07

6-Oct-07

6-Nov-07

7-Dec-07

7-Jan-08

7-Feb-08

9-Mar-08

USLIBOR


EURIBOR

75

80

85

90

95

100

105



Dollar falling equally sharply against emerging market units

index, LCU per USD, January 1, 2007 = 100

Russian ruble

Turkish lira

euro

Brazilian rei


Focus

Teng Jiang and Hans Timmer Food prices soar. Over the second half of 2007 prices of internationally-traded food commodities increased 35% in dollar terms. And currencies of commodity-importing developing countries appreciated 4-to 5% against the dollar on average. So expressed in local currency, prices of food imports increased 30%; and relative to domestic consumer prices, food imports became 24% more expensive. Over the 18 months through mid-2007, international food prices increased 20% in dollars; but over that period the relative price of food imports was unchanged. Imported versus domestic? Prices of imported food are not a particularly good indicator of domestic food prices. For example, grain-exporting countries in ECA have not witnessed increases in import prices; but the price of domestically produced grain has increased with world market prices. For all countries, domestic food price increases were less-than half the increase in internationally-traded food commodities. One reason is that domestic food CPI indices span a broad range of products, including perishable items not much traded internationally; they also cover non-agriculture value added. And international prices are not completely passed through to local markets. Food prices and domestic inflation. In almost all countries, food prices exerted upward pressures on inflation. For several countries (among which, Venezuela, Hungary, the Baltic States and South Africa), this came on top of broader non-food inflation pressures. But for the majority of countries the non-food portion of the CPI eased during 2007. This may be good news. The recent 2-year surge in food prices is likely to give way to some decline in the next years; and as yet there are few signs that food prices have had substantial second-round effects which could set-off a lasting spiral of price increases. However, with headline inflation high, central banks in most developing countries remain cautious and many are in tightening mode, witnessed in recent policy rate increases.

International food prices increased 25% in real terms since Jan-2006

Index, 2006=100

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

2006M1 2006M7 2007M1 2007M7 2008M1

Source: DECPG

Nominal LCU

Nominal US$

Real

Similar increases in domestic food prices across countries

percentage change since Jan-2006

0102030405060708090

100

China

EAP ex CHN

Russia

Turke

yCEE

LAC

Egypt

Jordan

India

Pakist

an

Nigeria

South

Africa

DEV avera

ge

OECD HIC

imported food price

Domestic food price

Source: DECPG

Food prices exert upward pressures on inflation

percentage points

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6

IndonesiaNigeriaSlovak

EcuadorTurkeyBrazil

CroatiaOECD HIC

CzechBulgaria

ColombiaEgypt

South AfricaLatvia

Venezuela

Food

Non-Food

Source: DECPG


Weights Average 2007 2007 2007 2008

2000 1998-07 2005 2006 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec Jan Feb

World 100.0 3.4 4.5 5.8 5.5 5.1 7.8 5.3 4.1 0.0 0.5 0.1 ..High-income countries 77.5 1.9 2.1 3.6 2.5 1.0 2.6 5.0 1.3 -0.6 0.5 0.0 ..

Industrial countries 73.0 1.9 2.0 3.8 2.7 0.9 2.5 5.2 1.1 -0.4 0.4 -0.1 ..United States 25.2 2.4 3.2 4.0 1.9 1.1 3.5 3.6 -1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.5Japan 17.5 0.8 1.6 4.3 2.8 -5.6 1.6 8.0 6.2 -1.3 1.7 -2.3 ..Euro Area 23.0 1.9 0.8 3.5 2.9 3.5 1.0 4.7 1.3 -0.5 0.6 0.4 ..United Kindgom 4.1 0.0 -2.0 0.3 0.3 -0.7 3.8 -1.3 1.1 -0.4 0.0 0.0 ..

Other high income 4.5 2.2 4.6 1.8 0.9 -3.7 7.5 7.2 5.0 -1.4 1.7 .. ..Hong Kong (China) 0.2 -3.4 2.4 2.5 -1.2 0.2 -4.7 -5.0 14.1 1.9 5.7 .. ..Singapore 0.4 6.4 9.1 12.2 6.2 -16.3 26.2 28.7 -26.1 3.5 -4.4 7.6 ..Taiwan (China) 1.1 5.5 3.7 5.7 8.6 4.3 25.6 22.6 7.1 -1.8 -2.0 3.9 ..

Developing countries 22.5 7.1 9.5 10.1 11.5 14.5 17.7 5.3 9.9 1.0 0.6 .. ..East Asia and Pacific 8.7 11.0 13.7 14.3 15.9 19.3 27.3 8.3 10.7 1.4 1.2 .. ..

China 6.3 13.4 15.6 16.6 17.7 21.4 30.4 8.6 11.5 1.1 1.3 .. ..Indonesia 0.9 .. 1.9 -1.9 .. 16.2 9.4 -3.7 .. 7.3 .. .. ..Thailand 0.6 7.0 9.1 7.4 8.2 6.9 6.0 20.2 16.2 1.3 -0.6 2.3 ..Malaysia 0.5 5.1 3.6 5.1 2.3 -3.5 8.7 3.8 9.8 5.6 -0.1 0.8 ..

Europe and Central Asia 3.2 4.8 4.9 7.3 7.0 12.3 3.4 -1.5 7.9 1.3 -1.5 1.7 ..Russian Federation 1.0 4.0 4.3 4.8 6.1 11.5 6.9 -8.4 8.8 -0.2 2.5 -2.1 ..Turkey 0.5 3.8 5.9 5.9 5.2 -3.0 3.2 3.4 13.2 9.9 -12.0 7.9 ..Poland 0.6 6.5 4.7 11.8 9.5 17.1 0.3 7.2 8.5 0.2 -0.6 5.9 ..Czech Republic 0.2 5.3 7.3 11.0 8.0 25.6 -7.1 -1.3 5.9 0.9 -3.7 8.8 ..

Latin America and Caribbean 5.9 2.1 4.0 4.3 4.5 3.5 6.6 4.9 6.8 -0.7 -0.4 .. ..Brazil 1.5 2.8 3.4 2.9 5.9 5.7 10.4 6.9 7.7 -1.9 -0.8 1.8 ..Mexico 1.7 2.5 2.1 5.1 1.3 -1.4 4.6 2.8 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 .. ..Argentina 0.8 2.6 8.1 6.8 5.7 1.1 6.8 7.0 15.8 2.5 1.8 -1.1 ..Colombia 0.3 .. 3.9 10.9 .. 13.6 9.3 3.7 .. 0.0 .. .. ..

Middle East and North Africa 1.9 2.6 4.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.4 -0.7 -3.9 6.9 0.9 0.3 .. ..Saudi Arabia 1.2 0.4 4.9 -4.1 -4.7 -5.5 -3.0 -2.0 21.1 1.9 1.2 .. ..Iran 0.4 0.7 3.4 -2.6 -2.6 -6.3 -3.7 -3.7 4.8 0.0 0.2 .. ..Egypt 0.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Algeria 0.3 3.7 7.1 1.0 1.1 2.8 0.2 -1.3 5.9 0.7 0.4 .. ..

South Asia 1.6 6.9 9.1 10.6 9.6 16.1 10.0 2.5 8.0 0.7 0.9 -1.2 ..India 1.3 6.7 7.9 10.6 9.9 16.4 6.7 2.4 8.3 0.7 0.9 -1.2 ..Pakistan 0.2 .. 15.0 10.7 .. 14.0 34.2 .. .. .. .. .. ..Bangladesh 0.1 .. 12.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Sri Lanka 0.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.1 .. 5.0 4.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa 0.4 2.2 3.6 4.8 4.2 6.4 0.8 -3.1 10.4 -0.9 -2.3 1.1 ..Nigeria 0.2 .. 0.0 0.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Memo:OECD 76.2 2.0 2.1 4.0 2.8 1.5 2.3 4.9 1.3 -0.3 0.1 0.2 ..Developing excl. China 16.2 3.4 4.8 4.9 5.7 8.0 6.1 1.7 8.1 1.0 -0.4 .. ..Developing oil exporters 2.8 .. 2.6 -1.2 .. 2.3 3.0 -2.9 .. 3.0 .. .. ..Dev. non-oil exporters 19.7 7.9 10.4 11.5 12.4 15.7 18.8 5.8 10.5 0.9 0.4 .. ..Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.1 Global industrial production growth(constant prices; percent; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures which are in percent change over previous month a/)

aIn general, series refer to industrial production excluding construction (e.g. manufacturing, mining and utilitites). Where this is not available the closest proxy is used, often manufacturing output or oil output, if the country is a major oil producer.




Real GDP a

High-income countries 78.4 2.5 2.5 2.9 2.5 1.9 2.2 4.2 1.9 .. .. .. ..Industrial countries 75.3 2.4 2.4 2.8 2.4 2.3 2.1 3.6 1.6 .. .. .. ..

United States 10.9 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.2 0.6 3.8 4.9 0.6 .. .. .. ..Japan 20.7 1.2 1.9 2.4 2.0 3.8 -1.5 1.2 3.5 .. .. .. ..Euro Area 27.4 2.2 1.7 2.9 2.6 3.2 1.1 3.0 1.5 .. .. .. ..United Kindgom 6.4 2.9 1.8 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.0 2.3 .. .. .. ..

Other high income 3.1 4.2 5.5 5.9 6.0 -9.2 2.6 24.1 10.2 .. .. .. ..Hong Kong (China) 0.7 .. 7.1 7.0 6.3 -24.2 3.2 37.3 20.6 .. .. .. ..Singapore 0.4 5.2 7.3 8.2 7.7 9.2 13.4 5.1 -4.8 .. .. .. ..Taiwan (China) 1.4 4.3 4.2 4.9 5.7 -10.3 -2.2 31.6 11.0 .. .. .. ..

Real merchandise imports b

High-income countries 100.0 .. 6.6 6.8 .. 4.4 3.1 4.1 .. .. .. .. ..Industrial countries 88.3 .. 6.0 6.2 2.6 3.5 1.5 3.1 2.4 0.4 -3.2 2.3 ..

United States 23.8 8.2 5.9 5.7 1.1 2.8 2.1 0.4 -0.8 0.5 -1.5 -0.3 ..Japan 6.7 5.2 3.5 3.9 -3.2 -0.5 -3.8 -4.7 -3.6 3.3 0.7 -3.9 ..Euro Area 37.1 .. 5.7 5.5 6.6 9.3 5.5 6.8 5.0 -1.5 -6.8 7.1 ..United Kindgom 6.7 6.3 6.8 10.6 -5.2 -10.7 -13.9 3.1 2.5 0.6 -4.8 1.9 ..

Other high income 11.7 5.5 9.4 9.3 .. 8.8 11.0 9.2 .. .. .. .. ..Hong Kong (China) 4.1 6.6 8.5 10.1 10.4 8.6 13.0 9.9 10.2 1.6 0.7 .. ..Singapore 2.3 5.2 8.6 11.2 6.3 7.5 6.1 3.5 8.4 2.5 -1.6 9.8 -4.2Taiwan (China) 2.2 .. 1.1 3.8 -0.2 -4.7 1.1 2.7 0.1 -8.7 18.2 -2.9 -3.2

Import Prices c

High-income countries 100.0 .. 6.7 6.2 .. 4.5 4.6 5.4 .. .. .. .. ..Industrial countries 88.3 .. 7.2 6.6 7.5 5.0 5.4 6.2 13.1 3.6 1.6 2.6 ..

United States 23.8 -0.1 7.5 4.9 4.2 1.3 1.9 3.2 10.6 3.2 -0.2 1.6 0.2Japan 6.7 -1.4 10.2 8.2 10.5 4.8 8.3 10.2 18.6 4.5 2.6 5.0 ..Euro Area 37.1 .. 7.6 9.0 8.2 6.2 6.2 6.5 13.8 4.3 5.8 1.1 ..United Kindgom 6.7 -1.1 3.6 5.0 10.1 10.8 9.2 8.7 11.9 2.7 -1.1 -0.3 ..

Other high income 11.7 -1.0 4.4 4.6 .. 2.8 2.0 2.1 .. .. .. .. ..Hong Kong (China) 4.1 -1.2 1.9 1.2 -0.3 0.0 -0.5 -0.9 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 .. ..Singapore 2.3 -0.2 6.4 7.5 3.4 1.3 0.6 1.5 10.2 2.4 0.5 1.2 1.0Taiwan (China) 2.2 -1.6 6.4 7.6 8.0 6.5 6.2 5.8 13.3 3.4 -0.1 1.6 1.5

Real effective exchange rates d

Euro Area 33.5 1.5 -0.8 0.9 4.1 4.2 3.2 2.8 6.4 2.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.4United States 14.4 -0.9 -2.7 -2.7 -4.7 -3.0 -3.7 -4.3 -7.8 -1.6 1.2 -0.7 -0.5Japan 7.4 -2.5 -5.1 -8.9 -6.5 -6.8 -9.5 -6.2 -3.4 2.6 -1.2 3.2 0.3United Kindgom 5.4 0.0 -2.4 -0.2 2.2 5.8 3.7 2.1 -2.6 -1.1 -1.7 -2.8 -0.9Canada 3.5 0.5 3.5 3.2 0.8 -6.2 -1.8 2.8 8.7 -0.2 -4.6 -2.7 0.3Hong Kong (China) 3.5 -2.7 -3.7 -2.6 -4.9 -4.0 -5.1 -4.4 -6.3 -0.5 -0.7 -3.2 -0.7Korea, Rep. 2.5 0.6 10.4 6.9 -0.5 1.0 0.4 -0.5 -2.8 -1.8 -0.7 -2.3 -1.6Singapore 2.3 0.9 4.6 5.4 7.3 9.2 9.7 6.1 4.4 -1.3 -0.2 -0.1 2.4Taiwan (China) 2.1 -2.1 -1.9 0.1 -1.3 0.8 0.2 -2.7 -3.4 -1.1 0.1 -1.4 1.4Switzerland 1.7 -0.7 -3.7 -4.3 -4.8 -4.3 -6.0 -4.8 -4.2 1.6 -0.5 1.4 0.4

Table A.2 Demand conditions in high-income countries(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change)

a/ Real GDP aggregated using 1995 weights.b/ On a customs or BoP basis, as available. Weights are 1995 merchandise import: aggregate calculated as sum of components.c/ Aggregate prices are implicit prices of aggregate US dollar value divided by aggregate constant 1995 dollar volume.d/ JP Morgan Trade Weighted Indices (Real, Broad basis). Data are averages of monthly data for the period in question.


Weights Average 2007 2007 2007 2008 Latest1995 1998-07 2005 2006 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Dec Jan Feb 19-Mar

Policy RatesUnited States .. 3.78 3.21 4.96 5.02 5.26 5.25 5.09 4.48 4.21 3.90 2.96 2.69Japan .. 0.31 0.10 0.24 0.70 0.55 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75Euro Area .. .. 2.02 2.76 3.84 3.55 3.80 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00United Kindgom .. 5.05 4.65 4.64 5.51 5.22 5.39 5.74 5.68 5.54 5.50 5.30 5.25

Ten year bondUnited States .. 4.86 4.28 4.78 4.63 4.67 4.82 4.74 4.27 4.05 3.75 3.76 3.48Japan .. 1.49 1.38 1.74 1.67 1.66 1.73 1.72 1.56 1.49 1.43 1.43 1.30Euro Area .. .. 3.35 3.73 4.20 3.92 4.31 4.35 4.23 4.25 4.07 3.99 3.79United Kindgom .. 4.88 4.41 4.48 5.01 4.85 5.17 5.19 4.82 4.70 4.46 4.60 4.42

Spreads (Basis points)b,c

Developing countries .. 455 306 198 197 176 162 216 235 250 279 290 311East Asia and Pacific .. 243 265 180 161 138 129 181 197 211 250 251 269

China .. 76 58 64 71 51 51 76 104 121 129 139 151Indonesia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Thailand .. .. 50 54 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Malaysia .. 134 84 84 87 70 70 97 109 119 120 128 142

Europe and Central Asia .. 352 185 149 158 147 134 165 185 194 219 231 258Russian Federation .. 348 156 111 121 106 97 131 152 158 178 190 204Turkey .. 476 274 223 214 216 193 219 229 235 269 279 324Poland .. 106 51 59 61 52 52 69 73 78 89 115 125Czech Republic .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Latin America and Caribbean .. 549 364 213 208 183 167 231 251 270 296 311 331Brazil .. 635 394 233 180 186 150 187 198 214 242 256 273Mexico .. 221 167 137 126 122 102 130 150 165 187 190 194Argentina .. 3020 2586 343 320 210 267 414 388 394 442 477 514Colombia .. 412 323 194 161 166 127 167 182 188 240 250 264

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 324 338 476 418 434 514 539 529 549 529 552Saudi Arabia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Egypt .. .. 65 79 86 57 52 80 154 187 212 225 257Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia d .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..India .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Pakistan .. .. 199 199 283 166 171 374 423 443 584 549 578Bangladesh .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Sri Lanka .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. 443 277 266 288 283 270 285 315 337 374 401 432South Africa .. 169 95 90 100 76 68 118 138 154 193 232 272Nigeria .. 746 417 245 77 96 23 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Gross inflows e

Developing countries .. .. 361 494 683 166 191 179 147 40 29 22 ..East Asia and Pacific .. .. 85 111 145 18 50 38 38 8 12 1 ..Europe and Central Asia .. .. 129 179 252 81 74 47 49 15 4 11 ..Latin America and Carribean .. .. 87 116 157 38 31 57 32 6 8 3 ..Middle East and North Africa .. .. 22 16 15 4 2 6 3 1 0 2 ..South Asia .. .. 22 42 69 12 20 22 15 6 4 3 ..Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. 15 30 46 13 14 9 10 4 1 1 ..

Table A.3 Global credit conditions(percent unless otherwise indicated a/)

a/Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures, except the last month, which are the values reported on the mentioned date. Quarterly and Annual figures are simple averages of the monthly figures.b/Average values for Spreads are for the period 1996-2003.c/Aggregates as defined by JP Morgan.d/East Asia and Pacific including South Asian countries.e/In billions of US dollars.


Weightsb Average 2007 2007 2007 20081990 1998-07 2005 2006 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec Jan Feb

Energy .. .. 233.4 281.0 310.8 250.1 289.1 321.2 382.9 399.2 391.3 396.4 408.2Coal, Australia .. 6.5 120.1 123.8 165.7 134.1 146.0 172.4 210.4 213.3 229.4 231.3 330.9Crude oil, average .. 14.0 233.4 281.0 310.8 250.1 289.1 321.2 382.9 399.2 391.3 396.4 408.2Natural gas , Europe .. 12.1 248.1 332.2 335.5 333.6 313.9 326.9 367.6 371.4 372.2 419.6 425.1

Non-energy 100.00 .. 121.9 151.8 175.7 163.6 176.9 177.8 184.7 184.2 184.9 204.7 222.3Agriculture 69.10 .. 113.0 126.6 145.6 135.6 140.4 147.0 159.4 159.3 163.4 171.5 186.0

Beverages 16.90 .. 116.9 122.5 139.4 132.2 135.2 141.3 149.0 146.4 153.4 158.4 177.7Cocoa 3.90 1.9 121.4 125.7 154.1 143.1 157.9 157.8 157.7 155.4 166.8 173.8 197.6Coffee, arabica 8.00 -4.2 128.4 127.9 138.1 135.5 129.4 137.4 150.1 146.4 153.8 156.3 175.8Coffee, robusta 2.80 1.0 94.3 126.0 161.6 146.3 159.3 169.6 171.1 172.7 170.5 185.1 215.4

Food 29.40 .. 109.9 120.6 146.0 129.9 136.5 149.4 168.3 168.3 174.9 185.8 203.4Fats and oils 10.10 .. 122.9 126.4 191.2 155.3 174.3 196.7 238.4 240.9 249.7 266.9 288.0

Palm oil 2.30 3.6 145.7 165.1 269.3 210.1 263.1 283.8 320.2 328.6 327.9 365.5 406.4Soybean meal 4.10 1.1 107.1 104.5 153.3 127.7 130.1 154.6 200.9 198.3 212.5 216.8 225.8Soybeans 2.00 2.7 111.3 108.9 155.6 128.7 137.1 160.3 196.5 198.2 208.8 219.3 234.4

Grains 6.90 .. 103.2 120.9 148.8 137.5 135.8 149.9 172.1 167.2 182.8 192.8 221.8Maize 1.70 3.4 90.3 111.5 149.8 156.4 145.9 139.5 157.3 156.7 165.0 189.1 203.8Rice, Thailand, 5% 2.90 0.7 105.7 112.6 120.5 116.5 117.8 120.8 127.0 126.3 133.2 138.7 171.6Wheat, US, HRW 1.90 4.8 112.4 141.7 188.3 146.4 151.8 202.8 252.3 237.5 272.0 273.5 313.6

Other food 12.40 .. 103.1 115.7 107.5 104.9 105.9 110.4 108.7 109.4 109.2 115.5 123.8Bananas, US 2.30 2.7 111.5 125.2 125.0 119.7 130.4 129.2 120.6 120.4 119.7 127.4 146.5Sugar, world 7.50 -0.2 94.0 112.3 95.5 95.6 92.6 95.3 98.4 98.3 100.3 105.8 111.9

Raw materials 22.80 .. 114.1 137.4 149.6 145.3 149.2 148.2 155.5 157.3 155.9 162.8 169.7Cotton ("A" Index) 5.90 -2.2 66.9 69.6 76.7 70.8 70.0 81.8 84.1 84.5 84.3 88.8 88.2Rubber, Singapore 4.80 8.5 173.7 243.8 264.9 258.2 270.4 247.3 283.5 289.8 288.0 305.7 325.3Sawnwood, Malaysia 2.90 2.0 123.7 140.6 151.3 149.0 151.5 154.0 150.5 151.2 147.9 152.4 160.5

Fertilizers 2.70 .. 134.9 136.8 227.2 149.6 213.3 252.6 293.0 276.1 336.9 431.0 522.5Triple superphosphate 0.90 7.0 152.8 153.0 257.2 171.2 251.1 284.5 322.0 321.5 339.0 409.0 553.3

Metals and minerals 28.20 .. 142.5 215.0 244.9 233.9 263.0 246.1 236.6 236.5 223.0 264.3 282.6Aluminum 7.90 5.1 115.8 156.8 160.9 170.9 168.4 155.3 149.1 152.9 145.3 149.2 169.4Copper 9.30 12.1 138.2 252.6 267.5 222.9 287.1 289.8 270.1 261.8 247.5 265.3 296.4Gold .. 7.7 116.0 157.6 181.7 169.6 174.1 177.6 205.5 210.3 209.5 232.0 240.5Nickel 2.20 18.3 166.3 273.6 420.0 467.5 542.1 340.8 329.6 345.3 293.2 312.4 315.4

Memo:Crude Oil (US$) .. 14.0 53.4 64.3 71.1 57.2 66.1 73.5 87.6 91.3 89.5 90.7 93.4

Table A.4 Commodity price indices(current US dollar index,index unless otherwise indicated; a/)

a/ The World Bank primary commodity price indices are computed from 1987-89 export values in US dollars for low- and middle-income economies, rebased to 1990.b/ Energy and gold prices are not included in the index.

Weightsb Average 2007 2007 2007 20081990 1998-07 2005 2006 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec Jan Feb

Energy .. .. 233.4 281.0 310.8 250.1 289.1 321.2 382.9 399.2 391.3 396.4 408.2Coal, Australia .. 6.5 120.1 123.8 165.7 134.1 146.0 172.4 210.4 213.3 229.4 231.3 330.9Crude oil, average .. 14.0 233.4 281.0 310.8 250.1 289.1 321.2 382.9 399.2 391.3 396.4 408.2Natural gas , Europe .. 12.1 248.1 332.2 335.5 333.6 313.9 326.9 367.6 371.4 372.2 419.6 425.1

Non-energy 100.00 .. 121.9 151.8 175.7 163.6 176.9 177.8 184.7 184.2 184.9 204.7 222.3Agriculture 69.10 .. 113.0 126.6 145.6 135.6 140.4 147.0 159.4 159.3 163.4 171.5 186.0

Beverages 16.90 .. 116.9 122.5 139.4 132.2 135.2 141.3 149.0 146.4 153.4 158.4 177.7Cocoa 3.90 1.9 121.4 125.7 154.1 143.1 157.9 157.8 157.7 155.4 166.8 173.8 197.6Coffee, arabica 8.00 -4.2 128.4 127.9 138.1 135.5 129.4 137.4 150.1 146.4 153.8 156.3 175.8Coffee, robusta 2.80 1.0 94.3 126.0 161.6 146.3 159.3 169.6 171.1 172.7 170.5 185.1 215.4

Food 29.40 .. 109.9 120.6 146.0 129.9 136.5 149.4 168.3 168.3 174.9 185.8 203.4Fats and oils 10.10 .. 122.9 126.4 191.2 155.3 174.3 196.7 238.4 240.9 249.7 266.9 288.0

Palm oil 2.30 3.6 145.7 165.1 269.3 210.1 263.1 283.8 320.2 328.6 327.9 365.5 406.4Soybean meal 4.10 1.1 107.1 104.5 153.3 127.7 130.1 154.6 200.9 198.3 212.5 216.8 225.8Soybeans 2.00 2.7 111.3 108.9 155.6 128.7 137.1 160.3 196.5 198.2 208.8 219.3 234.4

Grains 6.90 .. 103.2 120.9 148.8 137.5 135.8 149.9 172.1 167.2 182.8 192.8 221.8Maize 1.70 3.4 90.3 111.5 149.8 156.4 145.9 139.5 157.3 156.7 165.0 189.1 203.8Rice, Thailand, 5% 2.90 0.7 105.7 112.6 120.5 116.5 117.8 120.8 127.0 126.3 133.2 138.7 171.6Wheat, US, HRW 1.90 4.8 112.4 141.7 188.3 146.4 151.8 202.8 252.3 237.5 272.0 273.5 313.6

Other food 12.40 .. 103.1 115.7 107.5 104.9 105.9 110.4 108.7 109.4 109.2 115.5 123.8Bananas, US 2.30 2.7 111.5 125.2 125.0 119.7 130.4 129.2 120.6 120.4 119.7 127.4 146.5Sugar, world 7.50 -0.2 94.0 112.3 95.5 95.6 92.6 95.3 98.4 98.3 100.3 105.8 111.9

Raw materials 22.80 .. 114.1 137.4 149.6 145.3 149.2 148.2 155.5 157.3 155.9 162.8 169.7Cotton ("A" Index) 5.90 -2.2 66.9 69.6 76.7 70.8 70.0 81.8 84.1 84.5 84.3 88.8 88.2Rubber, Singapore 4.80 8.5 173.7 243.8 264.9 258.2 270.4 247.3 283.5 289.8 288.0 305.7 325.3Sawnwood, Malaysia 2.90 2.0 123.7 140.6 151.3 149.0 151.5 154.0 150.5 151.2 147.9 152.4 160.5

Fertilizers 2.70 .. 134.9 136.8 227.2 149.6 213.3 252.6 293.0 276.1 336.9 431.0 522.5Triple superphosphate 0.90 7.0 152.8 153.0 257.2 171.2 251.1 284.5 322.0 321.5 339.0 409.0 553.3

Metals and minerals 28.20 .. 142.5 215.0 244.9 233.9 263.0 246.1 236.6 236.5 223.0 264.3 282.6Aluminum 7.90 5.1 115.8 156.8 160.9 170.9 168.4 155.3 149.1 152.9 145.3 149.2 169.4Copper 9.30 12.1 138.2 252.6 267.5 222.9 287.1 289.8 270.1 261.8 247.5 265.3 296.4Gold .. 7.7 116.0 157.6 181.7 169.6 174.1 177.6 205.5 210.3 209.5 232.0 240.5Nickel 2.20 18.3 166.3 273.6 420.0 467.5 542.1 340.8 329.6 345.3 293.2 312.4 315.4

Memo:Crude Oil (US$) .. 14.0 53.4 64.3 71.1 57.2 66.1 73.5 87.6 91.3 89.5 90.7 93.4

Table A.4 Commodity price indices(current US dollar index,index unless otherwise indicated; a/)

a/ The World Bank primary commodity price indices are computed from 1987-89 export values in US dollars for low- and middle-income economies, rebased to 1990.b/ Energy and gold prices are not included in the index.


Weightsb Average 2007 2007 2007 20082004 1998-04 2005 2006 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct Nov Dec Jan

Global semiconductor sales /a World 100.00 6.5 6.8 8.9 3.4 3.1 -0.9 1.6 1.3 3.8 -4.6 -0.1 -0.3

North America 22.29 -1.5 4.3 10.3 -5.9 -10.3 -14.2 -3.5 -4.0 10.9 -15.0 1.6 0.9 Europe 19.67 3.8 -0.4 1.6 3.0 0.5 0.5 -3.4 -0.4 2.7 -2.0 -0.2 0.5 Japan 21.76 4.1 -3.7 5.3 4.3 5.0 0.1 3.3 15.6 2.1 -2.4 2.4 -10.5 Other Asia 36.29 16.6 16.5 12.7 6.8 8.7 3.4 4.7 -0.9 1.5 -2.7 -1.8 2.7

Semiconductor prices World /a 0.4 1.9 -4.8 -7.4 -26.3 -36.0 15.1 11.6 -4.0 3.3 5.9 -11.1 United States PPI -2.6 -2.3 -1.8 -6.4 -11.6 -11.2 -10.4 -7.3 -1.0 0.0 0.1 -2.4 U.S. computer/software prices -19.3 -13.7 -13.3 -9.3 -3.9 -8.8 -14.8 -14.8 0.0 -3.1 -0.4 0.8Memo:PHLX Semichip Equity Index 7.2 -3.4 8.6 -0.1 1.7 3.5 3.7 -8.5 1.7 -10.0 -8.8 -1.7

G-3 high-tech orders 100.00 -1.1 -1.7 5.9 -0.6 -11.2 15.4 12.2 -7.3 -3.4 2.0 2.3 0.3 United States 70.00 -1.9 -0.4 11.0 0.1 -13.4 15.6 24.0 -16.0 -8.2 -0.2 3.7 -2.9 Japan 17.00 0.6 -3.8 -2.9 -2.2 -7.2 14.7 -8.6 12.7 8.0 6.5 -0.4 6.9 Germany 13.00 4.6 8.7 10.3 23.8 38.3 39.3 -8.0 72.4 12.7 4.8 -0.5 -2.3 Euro Area -2.6 -3.1 -2.1 2.2 7.4 2.8 1.2 -16.9 1.6 1.6 -5.0 ..

High-tech industrial production Selected high-income countries 100.00 13.7 13.7 20.8 15.5 5.8 15.0 24.2 13.7 3.1 0.7 0.3 -0.4

United States 68.00 19.3 18.6 26.6 19.5 9.2 16.6 26.4 16.0 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.3 Japan 15.50 -0.9 0.5 4.0 4.2 -9.9 11.6 26.5 8.3 10.7 -1.4 -1.9 -4.9 Germany 11.50 4.6 7.7 14.5 11.5 5.6 13.6 15.9 11.9 0.4 0.7 2.8 1.3 Finland 5.00 3.9 1.7 8.9 5.1 8.6 6.6 5.7 3.0 -0.4 2.2 -2.2 0.2 Euro Area 0.9 3.5 9.8 23.5 28.8 23.0 29.5 18.1 2.6 1.0 -0.4 4.5

East Asian NIEs 100.00 5.8 3.5 6.1 -1.4 -6.1 22.7 39.6 -1.3 5.5 -2.0 -1.4 .. Korea 38.00 8.8 5.8 11.3 1.7 -3.1 19.7 18.3 0.0 3.6 -0.5 -0.4 .. Singapore 30.00 5.7 9.5 11.9 0.0 -15.6 27.7 27.0 0.0 2.4 3.1 -4.4 4.8 Taiwan 32.00 2.3 -4.9 -5.4 -6.3 -0.7 21.5 76.8 -4.2 10.8 -8.7 0.4 4.8

ASEAN countries 100.00 15.2 19.0 14.0 4.3 3.6 4.9 36.4 27.0 0.8 5.8 0.7 .. Malaysia 60.00 9.0 5.1 7.5 -0.4 -2.7 2.9 9.5 10.7 -2.6 6.7 0.9 .. Thailand 40.00 24.5 39.7 23.7 11.4 13.2 7.9 76.8 51.5 6.0 4.6 0.3 2.1

High-tech exports Selected high-income countries 100.00 3.7 0.9 6.4 0.9 -1.6 -9.8 11.7 11.4 1.2 -0.2 3.0 0.1

United States 47.00 1.4 2.4 8.7 -3.0 -9.4 -12.2 11.0 7.3 0.3 -1.1 6.4 0.1 Japan 53.00 5.8 -0.4 4.4 4.3 5.4 -7.7 12.2 15.1 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.2

East Asian NIEs 100.00 49.3 9.4 11.9 9.0 -4.1 8.4 16.3 22.9 4.7 -0.5 -1.2 4.7 Hong Kong (SAR, China) 30.00 62.6 19.7 12.2 14.1 2.8 10.9 3.4 23.8 4.9 0.8 -0.5 2.9 Korea 17.00 50.2 11.0 13.4 10.3 12.0 3.2 -4.8 14.9 18.4 1.5 -5.0 9.0 Singapore 13.00 2.4 2.9 3.5 -6.6 -49.9 -14.4 49.8 -6.4 5.2 -3.4 -8.6 17.9 Taiwan 40.00 54.3 3.1 13.7 9.8 -1.3 16.1 24.1 35.1 -1.4 -1.4 2.2 0.1

ASEAN countries 100.00 58.1 8.9 11.8 13.4 10.2 17.2 19.6 20.4 3.3 6.0 -3.9 .. Malaysia 60.00 56.4 11.3 13.8 9.8 2.7 14.4 16.9 35.1 2.4 16.0 -12.1 .. Thailand 40.00 60.6 5.3 8.9 18.9 21.4 21.3 23.6 -1.6 4.7 -8.9 8.3 -14.5

Memo:U.S. retail sales, electronics 4.8 8.2 6.6 -0.7 1.7 -1.9 6.1 9.6 0.4 2.2 -3.0 -0.1Semiconductor production United States 30.0 20.9 36.3 18.5 -6.9 9.5 43.7 17.3 2.9 0.2 0.4 0.1 Japan 3.2 -0.9 15.2 6.9 -16.4 11.7 32.1 30.3 9.7 -3.1 -0.3 -6.1 Singapore 17.7 9.8 30.6 16.0 -2.2 31.5 37.7 6.6 0.0 -8.5 3.4 -19.2 China 51.0 34.6 26.1 3.0 -43.9 103.8 63.1 18.6 -3.3 -1.2 -7.4 -14.0

Table A.5 High-tech Market Indicators(U.S. dollar values, unless otherwise indicated; percent change saar, except monthly figures which are m/m change).

/a Source: Semiconductor Industry Association.




Export valuesDeveloping countries 100.0 14.1 23.1 22.1 19.5 20.4 22.7 17.2 34.9 0.9 -3.1 15.1 ..

East Asia and Pacific 36.3 15.7 23.0 23.4 21.7 34.1 12.7 16.6 23.1 -2.0 -2.9 20.3 ..China 16.7 20.9 28.4 27.2 25.7 50.5 10.3 20.8 11.4 -1.7 -5.2 27.7 -13.7Indonesia 4.2 7.8 19.7 17.7 13.0 1.8 22.8 0.2 31.4 8.4 -1.2 12.8 ..Thailand 4.6 10.1 15.0 16.9 17.5 15.3 22.4 0.1 64.9 1.8 -3.8 11.6 ..

Europe and Central Asia 20.7 16.2 21.9 23.0 23.0 20.1 24.0 20.7 63.8 5.7 -4.0 14.3 ..Russian Federation 7.1 15.1 33.1 24.7 16.9 0.7 35.8 18.1 119.2 3.6 0.8 8.4 ..Turkey 1.8 15.1 16.3 16.4 25.3 48.2 18.8 9.6 40.1 28.8 -24.0 50.2 ..Poland 2.1 18.4 19.3 24.3 25.7 16.2 25.2 21.1 35.0 3.3 -5.0 12.3 ..

Latin America and Caribbean 24.0 9.5 20.4 18.5 12.6 4.6 25.2 13.8 30.9 0.0 -1.8 5.4 ..Brazil 3.7 11.7 22.6 16.3 16.7 21.0 26.3 -3.7 39.9 -2.6 -0.5 7.8 2.2Mexico 11.2 9.4 14.0 16.7 8.9 0.8 22.8 24.1 11.3 3.8 -0.2 -1.0 ..Argentina 1.8 7.8 16.8 15.1 20.4 -11.6 21.5 47.2 95.3 0.8 1.8 10.3 ..

Middle East and North Africa 8.3 .. 31.8 27.4 .. -8.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Saudi Arabia 5.2 .. 39.4 21.0 .. -15.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Iran 1.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Egypt 0.3 15.1 34.6 32.5 18.2 33.8 11.2 2.6 94.7 11.9 -2.8 .. ..

South Asia 4.3 13.4 27.8 15.7 20.0 -3.1 79.3 28.4 14.7 -1.4 -5.0 5.4 ..India 2.8 15.7 31.5 17.0 22.7 -0.7 90.4 34.2 13.4 -3.6 -1.8 3.0 ..Pakistan 0.6 7.2 23.2 6.1 3.0 -24.1 19.4 4.4 20.0 18.1 -28.2 29.3 1.4Bangladesh 0.4 .. 14.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 6.3 .. 27.2 21.1 .. 17.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa 2.0 8.5 12.7 12.0 20.1 21.6 25.0 -5.3 49.1 14.8 -2.5 6.2 ..Nigeria 1.4 .. 30.6 23.8 .. -9.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Export prices b,c

Developing countries 100.0 .. 7.3 6.4 .. 8.3 6.5 1.6 .. 0.4 .. .. ..East Asia and Pacific 36.3 0.3 4.6 3.1 1.5 1.5 2.2 -0.3 9.4 0.4 0.6 .. ..

China 16.7 -1.2 2.9 0.8 0.5 -1.5 2.0 1.5 4.2 -0.3 0.3 .. ..Indonesia 4.2 5.1 15.6 17.0 8.8 0.1 47.5 -1.8 29.9 3.4 1.8 0.6 ..Thailand 4.6 3.3 7.2 5.2 5.7 10.5 8.8 3.7 10.5 1.2 0.2 1.2 ..

Europe and Central Asia 20.7 .. 8.2 8.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Russian Federation 7.1 .. 22.8 17.1 .. 11.1 50.4 30.0 .. 4.9 .. .. ..Turkey 1.8 1.8 5.7 3.5 12.4 18.8 18.6 11.0 29.9 3.3 1.7 1.0 ..Poland 2.1 .. -12.8 6.4 .. 0.1 -14.7 1.2 .. -6.4 .. .. ..

Latin America and Caribbean 24.0 4.1 11.1 10.9 7.7 -2.4 16.7 15.6 25.1 1.6 1.8 .. ..Brazil 3.7 2.3 12.1 12.5 10.5 -0.4 16.1 19.1 24.8 1.4 2.4 2.8 0.3Mexico 11.2 4.2 8.2 7.5 5.1 -2.7 15.4 12.9 20.1 2.0 -0.2 0.2 ..Argentina 1.8 1.8 1.7 8.5 11.2 12.6 12.7 14.0 43.5 4.5 3.1 .. ..

Middle East and North Africa 8.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Saudi Arabia 5.2 .. 46.0 22.7 .. -14.8 91.0 28.7 .. .. .. .. ..Iran 1.9 .. 71.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Egypt 0.3 .. -0.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 4.3 .. 1.5 4.0 .. 13.5 12.8 .. .. .. .. .. ..India 2.8 2.4 11.0 3.3 9.5 10.9 12.1 12.1 11.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7Pakistan 0.6 .. 0.4 2.5 .. -2.4 24.9 .. .. .. .. .. ..Bangladesh 0.4 .. -38.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 6.3 .. 10.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa 2.0 5.0 6.6 8.1 8.9 14.6 24.7 7.2 28.6 4.0 2.3 .. ..Nigeria 1.4 .. 35.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.6 Developing countries' merchandise export growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

/a Merchandise export (F.O.B), customs basis./b Implicit export unit values, U.S. Dollar basis./c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported.




Import valuesDeveloping countries 100.0 .. .. .. .. 12.6 16.9 28.2 39.8 0.4 -2.2 12.7 ..

East Asia and Pacific 35.2 14.3 17.4 16.7 18.6 24.0 -1.1 32.9 47.2 0.4 -0.9 13.6 ..China 19.3 21.0 17.6 19.9 20.8 33.7 -10.1 45.1 42.3 1.2 -1.7 15.0 2.6Indonesia 2.1 6.0 24.0 5.8 21.8 9.7 55.3 21.5 58.0 15.3 -5.6 12.4 ..Thailand 4.2 8.3 25.7 9.0 8.7 -21.2 27.3 25.9 40.5 -0.8 -0.1 19.0 ..

Europe and Central Asia 24.1 .. .. .. .. 22.8 26.1 27.0 38.0 2.6 -5.3 13.0 ..Russian Federation 3.9 12.0 28.8 31.3 35.4 -10.4 73.3 37.5 51.1 -2.3 -2.3 -6.0 ..Turkey 3.2 13.3 19.7 19.5 21.8 53.0 9.2 30.6 32.9 6.4 -14.0 43.4 ..Poland 3.6 14.5 13.5 25.5 28.9 11.1 29.0 15.7 44.3 5.8 -2.8 6.1 ..

Latin America and Caribbean 22.9 8.6 18.0 19.3 18.5 16.8 19.8 34.3 22.0 -1.6 2.5 7.2 ..Brazil 3.2 7.3 17.2 24.2 32.0 37.4 28.2 56.2 49.2 -1.4 0.2 11.5 8.0Mexico 11.6 9.9 12.7 15.4 10.6 3.5 26.3 17.5 3.6 -3.0 4.8 3.8 ..Argentina 0.6 3.9 27.8 19.0 31.1 41.1 11.0 97.2 15.2 -2.3 0.1 18.6 ..

Middle East and North Africa 6.9 .. 18.0 8.9 .. 23.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Saudi Arabia 2.0 .. 18.5 20.2 .. 34.2 32.9 3.4 .. .. .. .. ..Iran 1.4 .. 13.1 7.3 .. 9.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Egypt 0.8 7.5 54.4 3.9 31.4 64.9 22.1 -6.2 133.5 9.3 -5.1 .. ..

South Asia 5.5 15.7 37.2 21.4 22.9 -5.2 72.6 0.6 41.9 -2.0 -14.7 29.4 ..India 3.7 18.6 42.0 21.9 27.4 -6.9 90.1 -4.8 38.3 -0.7 -12.5 24.1 ..Pakistan 0.7 10.9 41.3 17.6 9.3 0.1 4.7 35.3 45.1 -9.8 -28.3 70.5 -5.3Bangladesh 0.5 .. 12.0 25.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 5.5 .. 34.4 88.4 .. -33.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa 1.9 11.0 15.6 23.3 18.1 1.2 10.4 14.0 38.2 -5.0 25.4 -11.4 ..Nigeria 0.5 .. 19.6 20.0 .. 50.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Import prices b,c

Developing countries 100.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..East Asia and Pacific 35.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China 19.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Indonesia 2.1 8.9 5.1 17.1 14.8 8.3 42.6 -2.7 46.3 5.3 0.1 0.7 ..Thailand 4.2 1.8 6.3 6.5 5.4 2.9 9.6 10.1 16.1 2.3 1.2 1.1 ..

Europe and Central Asia 24.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Russian Federation 3.9 0.0 7.3 7.5 5.2 5.5 4.6 3.5 2.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0Turkey 3.2 3.1 6.9 10.0 7.9 -13.3 19.7 11.5 33.0 3.5 0.8 2.5 ..Poland 3.6 .. -8.6 6.9 .. 7.9 -18.8 -4.5 .. 2.9 .. .. ..

Latin America and Caribbean 22.9 2.3 6.9 5.4 7.1 5.1 13.4 11.3 8.5 1.5 0.3 .. ..Brazil 3.2 3.0 11.2 6.9 8.2 2.5 26.0 14.4 14.7 3.4 1.4 0.1 3.8Mexico 11.6 2.4 5.1 4.5 5.4 5.2 8.6 2.6 7.0 1.1 0.5 1.2 ..Argentina 0.6 0.4 4.1 2.3 7.4 9.8 12.6 33.5 -11.8 -4.4 -1.6 .. ..

Middle East and North Africa 6.9 .. 3.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Saudi Arabia 2.0 .. 3.4 3.1 .. 5.6 4.3 7.6 .. .. .. .. ..Iran 1.4 .. 3.3 3.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Egypt 0.8 .. 0.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 5.5 .. 10.5 -5.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..India 3.7 .. 21.2 -8.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Pakistan 0.7 .. 12.9 10.1 .. 6.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Bangladesh 0.5 .. -36.4 -0.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 5.5 .. -1.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa 1.9 4.2 5.9 3.5 5.8 -0.9 14.8 15.0 31.6 3.4 2.4 .. ..Nigeria 0.5 .. 6.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.7 Developing countries' merchandise import growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

/a Merchandise import (C.I.F.), customs basis./b Implicit import unit values, U.S. Dollar basis./c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported.


US$ bn. % GDP 2007 2007 2007 20082007 2007 2005 2006 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec Jan Feb

World 0.0 0.0 -254 -355 -357 -323 -268 -365 -470 -450 -588 -424 ..High-income countries a -415.1 -1.1 -382 -448 -377 -357 -351 -363 -436 -436 -529 -491 ..

Industrial countries -513.1 -1.4 -536 -638 -546 -511 -513 -541 -619 -623 -692 -688 ..United States -765.4 -5.6 -767 -817 -790 -782 -793 -777 -808 -849 -794 -806 ..Japan 209.8 4.8 78 67 93 94 91 102 87 90 66 96 ..Euro Area 41.1 0.4 22 -14 42 55 61 38 15 39 -30 -25 ..United Kindgom -88.4 -3.2 -125 -143 -176 -165 -160 -187 -190 -196 -182 -177 ..

Other high income 97.9 6.5 154 190 170 154 163 179 184 184 169 208 ..Hong Kong (China) 22.9 11.1 -10 -18 -23 -16 -23 -24 -30 -31 -31 -11 ..Singapore 41.4 28.8 29 33 36 43 36 41 25 16 23 28 38Taiwan (China) 28.3 7.7 15 20 27 27 22 25 33 43 21 22 18

Developing countries 0.0 0.0 133 100 24 41 93 2 -39 -18 -58 41 ..East Asia and Pacific 392.1 9.7 140 240 337 324 379 347 296 294 254 412 ..

China 339.4 11.1 101 174 263 252 305 276 220 225 176 358 113Indonesia 10.7 3.0 28 40 40 43 41 38 36 34 38 43 ..Thailand 10.5 4.9 -7 1 12 15 14 6 13 17 11 0 ..Malaysia 25.8 15.2 26 30 32 20 24 40 43 39 49 36 ..

Europe and Central Asia .. .. 14 -5 -41 -39 -46 -63 -16 -10 7 24 ..Russian Federation 75.2 6.1 120 143 136 126 124 121 172 175 185 236 ..Turkey -35.8 -7.3 -43 -54 -63 -59 -58 -67 -70 -62 -67 -89 ..Poland -16.7 -4.1 -12 -17 -23 -20 -23 -22 -26 -27 -30 -23 ..Czech Republic -5.9 -3.6 2 2 5 4 2 6 7 5 14 4 ..

Latin America and Caribbean 22.8 0.7 30 32 -2 4 12 -17 -5 10 -23 -38 ..Brazil 5.5 0.5 45 46 40 46 48 33 34 33 32 30 21Mexico -8.6 -1.0 -8 -6 -11 -12 -15 -11 -6 5 -9 -24 ..Argentina 6.3 2.2 12 12 11 9 11 8 17 17 18 16 ..Colombia -6.2 -1.8 0 -2 -3 -5 -3 -4 -2 2 -2 .. ..

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 10 46 .. 15 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 98.4 25.5 100 122 .. 89 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Iran 21.2 7.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Egypt 3.1 2.4 -9 -7 -11 -10 -11 -10 -13 -14 -13 .. ..Algeria 28.9 22.9 20 28 .. 22 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia .. -56 -73 -97 -89 -101 -90 -109 -120 -83 -153 ..

India .. .. -39 -52 -72 -66 -78 -64 -78 -89 -61 -108 ..Pakistan -6.9 -4.8 -9 -13 -15 -14 -13 -16 -18 -17 -12 -27 -25Bangladesh 0.7 1.0 -3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Sri Lanka .. .. -2 -3 .. -3 -3 -4 .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa -18.4 -2.3 -1 -136 .. -179 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa -18.2 -6.9 -3 -10 -10 -10 -8 -12 -11 1 -21 -5 ..Nigeria 19.7 14.3 19 24 .. 16 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Memo:OECD .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Developing excl. China .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Developing oil exporters 148.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Developing non-oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.8 Merchandise trade balances(Billion US dollars; annual rates)

a/ Seasonally adjusted

CAB


Weights Average Levelb

2007 2007 2007 2008 Latest

1995 1998-07 2005 2006 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Dec Jan Feb 19-Mar

World 100.0 95.2 1.1 0.8 5.8 4.8 4.5 5.6 8.7 -0.8 0.8 0.5 2.9

High-income countries 77.7 .. 0.8 0.5 6.1 5.7 4.4 5.6 9.2 -1.2 0.9 0.5 3.6Industrial countries 70.1 .. 0.8 0.6 7.0 6.5 5.0 6.4 10.4 -1.3 1.0 0.4 3.9

United States (SDR/USD) 15.6 0.7 -0.3 -0.4 3.9 3.9 3.0 3.3 5.6 -0.7 -4.6 5.4 2.6Japan 7.3 116.8 -1.8 -5.2 -1.2 -2.1 -5.2 -1.3 4.1 -0.9 4.3 0.5 5.4Euro Area 29.4 .. 0.0 1.0 9.1 9.0 7.4 7.9 12.3 -0.9 1.1 0.2 4.7United Kindgom 5.5 0.6 -0.7 1.2 8.7 11.5 8.8 7.8 6.8 -2.3 -2.7 -0.3 2.3

Other high income 7.6 101.7 1.1 -0.1 0.4 0.2 -0.2 0.3 1.4 -0.2 0.4 1.0 1.2Hong Kong (China) 3.6 7.8 0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 -0.4 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.2Singapore 2.3 1.7 1.6 4.7 5.4 6.3 4.3 4.1 7.2 -0.1 1.2 1.5 1.9Taiwan (China) 2.1 33.1 3.9 -1.1 -0.9 -1.8 -2.8 -0.4 1.3 -0.3 0.2 2.3 2.8

Developing countries 22.3 110.4 1.9 1.6 5.0 2.5 4.7 5.6 7.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 1.2East Asia and Pacific 7.4 101.8 -0.8 4.2 5.6 5.2 5.7 5.7 6.1 0.7 1.3 1.5 1.1

China 2.7 8.2 1.0 2.8 4.8 3.7 4.4 5.4 5.8 0.7 1.7 1.1 0.9Indonesia 1.1 9138.6 -7.9 6.0 0.2 1.8 1.6 -1.5 -1.2 -0.5 -0.7 2.4 0.3Thailand 1.3 40.1 0.0 6.2 9.7 10.5 9.9 10.7 7.8 0.5 1.4 2.0 3.4Malaysia 1.4 3.8 0.3 3.2 6.7 6.5 6.4 5.9 8.0 0.7 2.0 1.4 1.4

Europe and Central Asia 4.9 98.5 4.1 1.6 8.5 5.9 7.2 8.8 12.1 -0.1 0.4 0.2 2.8Russian Federation 1.5 26.4 1.9 4.0 6.3 7.1 5.2 5.1 7.9 -0.4 0.3 -0.1 3.0Turkey 0.6 1.1 6.1 -5.9 9.6 -5.6 7.5 16.6 22.4 1.0 0.1 -1.8 -2.9Poland 0.5 3.7 13.0 4.3 12.1 7.4 11.2 12.5 18.2 0.7 0.9 1.2 5.7Czech Republic 0.4 29.7 7.3 6.0 11.3 11.2 7.8 9.5 17.6 0.9 1.9 2.9 6.1

Latin America and Caribbean 5.3 129.6 5.5 1.4 3.0 -0.3 4.0 3.7 5.2 0.1 0.2 1.4 1.0Brazil 1.0 2.3 20.2 11.9 11.7 4.2 10.3 13.3 20.5 -0.9 0.7 2.5 2.3Mexico 1.6 10.2 3.6 0.0 -0.3 -3.9 2.5 0.0 0.4 0.2 -0.6 1.4 0.0Argentina 0.4 2.2 0.7 -4.9 -1.3 -1.0 -0.5 -1.6 -2.2 -0.1 -0.8 -0.4 0.2Colombia 0.3 2234.1 13.3 -1.7 13.6 2.0 20.5 19.0 14.1 1.5 1.9 4.3 2.1

Middle East and North Africa 1.7 146.1 -0.3 -0.4 1.9 1.3 1.3 1.9 3.0 -0.4 0.5 -0.1 1.5Saudi Arabia 0.8 3.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1Iran 0.3 5815.4 -3.9 -2.3 -1.2 -1.2 -1.1 -1.2 -1.2 -0.7 0.9 -0.5 1.8Egypt 0.3 4.8 7.2 0.8 1.7 0.6 1.1 1.6 3.5 -0.3 0.4 0.0 0.7Algeria 0.3 72.2 -1.7 0.9 4.8 3.0 3.5 6.3 6.7 -0.4 0.4 0.2 1.6

South Asia 1.5 102.3 1.1 -2.8 6.2 -0.4 6.7 9.6 9.6 0.0 0.2 -1.0 -1.2India 1.1 44.8 2.8 -2.7 9.6 0.5 10.3 14.4 14.0 0.0 0.2 -1.0 -1.7Pakistan 0.2 56.6 -2.1 -1.3 -0.8 -1.5 -1.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 -2.3 -0.2Bangladesh 0.1 58.2 -7.5 -6.7 0.1 -1.9 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0Sri Lanka 0.1 91.0 0.7 -3.3 -6.1 -6.0 -6.9 -8.0 -3.5 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.5 104.9 -0.2 -3.0 0.3 -6.2 -2.8 2.5 7.9 -0.5 -1.3 -4.2 -0.8South Africa 0.5 7.2 1.6 -6.1 -3.9 -15.0 -8.9 0.8 8.4 -1.6 -3.0 -8.5 -3.3Nigeria 0.3 109.5 1.2 2.0 2.3 1.0 0.7 1.4 6.5 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.6

Memo:OECD 73.8 .. 1.1 0.6 6.9 6.1 5.2 6.4 10.3 -1.2 0.9 0.4 3.8Developing excl. China 19.6 112.2 2.1 1.5 5.0 2.3 4.8 5.6 7.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 1.3Developing oil exporters 2.7 147.7 -5.8 1.9 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.7 -0.2 -0.1 1.0 0.6Developing non-oil exporters 19.5 105.9 3.1 1.6 5.6 2.7 5.3 6.4 8.2 0.2 0.6 0.5 1.3Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.9 Exchange Rates (USD/LCU)(annual percent change except monthly data which is change over previous month a/)

a/ An increase in the USD per LCU implies appreciation of the local currency. The aggregates computed by using trade weights and rebased to year 2000=100 (bilateral total trade i.e. imports plus exports in 1995 constant USD).Aggregates are reported when at least 60% (by weight) of countries reported data in that time period.b/ Average levels are LCU vis-a-vis the USD




World 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.4 2.6 2.5 3.6 3.9 3.7 3.9 ..

High-income countries 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.7Industrial countries 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.6

United States 4.6 2.9 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.4 2.7 2.3 4.0 4.3 4.1 4.3 4.0Japan 0.8 0.1 -0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 ..Euro Area 3.8 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2United Kindgom 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.8 2.6 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 ..

Other high income .. .. 1.5 1.6 .. 1.5 1.2 2.4 .. .. .. .. ..Hong Kong (China) 4.0 2.0 0.9 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.3 1.6 3.5 3.4 3.8 3.3 ..Singapore 5.7 2.1 0.5 1.0 2.1 0.5 1.0 2.7 4.1 4.2 4.4 6.6 ..Taiwan (China) 5.8 1.8 2.3 0.6 1.8 1.0 0.3 1.5 4.5 4.8 3.3 3.0 3.9

Developing countries 6.2 5.9 6.4 6.2 5.9 5.2 5.7 6.2 6.7 7.4 6.6 7.4 ..East Asia and Pacific 5.2 4.8 7.2 5.1 4.8 4.6 4.9 6.0 4.9 5.0 5.1 4.9 6.4

China 7.0 4.8 1.8 1.5 4.8 2.7 3.6 6.1 6.6 6.9 6.5 7.1 8.7Indonesia 5.2 6.4 10.5 13.1 6.4 6.4 6.0 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.6 7.4 7.4Thailand 4.1 2.2 4.5 4.6 2.2 2.5 1.9 1.6 2.9 3.0 3.2 4.3 5.4Malaysia 1.9 2.0 3.0 3.6 2.0 2.6 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.3 ..

Europe and Central Asia 6.0 7.3 4.4 5.0 7.3 4.8 4.8 6.8 8.0 8.4 8.3 9.9 ..Russian Federation 10.6 9.0 12.7 9.7 9.0 7.7 7.9 8.9 11.4 11.5 11.9 12.6 ..Turkey 8.5 8.8 8.2 9.6 8.8 10.3 9.5 7.1 8.2 8.4 8.4 8.2 9.1Poland 3.8 2.4 2.1 1.1 2.4 1.9 2.4 2.0 3.3 3.3 3.9 4.2 4.3Czech Republic 4.7 2.9 1.8 2.5 2.9 1.6 2.5 2.6 4.9 5.1 5.5 7.6 7.5

Latin America and Caribbean 6.3 5.8 5.4 5.6 5.8 5.2 6.2 6.0 7.7 8.3 7.1 6.7 6.3Brazil 3.9 3.6 6.9 4.2 3.6 3.0 3.3 4.0 4.3 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.6Mexico 3.4 4.0 4.0 3.6 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7Argentina 7.6 8.8 9.6 10.9 8.8 9.5 8.8 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.2 8.4Colombia 5.3 5.5 5.0 4.3 5.5 5.2 6.2 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.7 6.0 6.3

Middle East and North Africa 4.4 .. 2.8 5.4 .. 4.7 3.4 5.2 .. 4.9 .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia .. .. 0.5 2.2 .. 3.1 3.0 4.6 .. .. .. .. ..Iran 17.1 .. 13.4 11.9 .. 15.8 16.5 17.4 .. 19.1 .. .. ..Egypt 7.1 9.5 4.8 7.6 9.5 12.7 10.1 8.4 7.1 6.9 6.9 10.5 ..Algeria 3.6 0.1 1.6 2.5 3.5 2.8 2.0 5.2 4.1 4.3 3.9 .. ..

South Asia 7.2 7.0 7.0 7.6 7.0 7.1 6.7 6.9 7.2 7.1 7.2 8.7 ..

India 6.7 6.4 4.2 6.2 6.4 7.0 6.3 6.7 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 ..Pakistan 11.0 7.6 9.1 7.9 7.6 7.2 7.1 7.1 8.9 8.7 8.8 11.9 11.3Bangladesh .. .. 7.0 6.8 .. 6.9 8.5 9.9 .. .. .. .. ..Sri Lanka .. .. 10.0 9.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 6.6 .. 7.5 6.4 .. 6.6 6.2 6.4 .. 8.0 .. .. ..

South Africa 8.6 7.1 3.4 4.6 7.1 5.9 7.0 7.0 8.4 8.4 9.0 9.3 ..Nigeria 7.8 .. 17.9 8.2 .. 6.7 5.1 4.4 .. 5.2 .. .. ..

Memo:OECD 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.2 1.9 2.0 1.8 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.7Developing excl. China .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Developing oil exporters 6.2 .. 11.9 10.1 .. 6.5 5.6 6.5 .. 6.7 .. .. ..Developing non-oil exporters 6.1 5.9 6.2 6.2 5.9 5.2 5.7 6.1 6.9 7.4 6.6 7.4 7.9Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.10 Global Inflation(annual percent change; seasonally adjusted a/)

a/ Developing country aggregates computed using median. Industrial aggregates use 1995 USD GDP weights. World total is GDP weighted average of developing and high income total. Aggregates are reported when at least 60% (by GDP) of countries reported data in that time period.

For developing countries, aggregate decadal growth rates are median of the decadal growth rates of the components. For high-income countries, aggregate decadal growth rate is GDP weighted sum of decadal growth rates of components.


Weights 2007 2007 2007 2008 Latest1995 2005 2006 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Dec Jan Feb 19-Mar

World 100.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

High-income countriesb 82.8 2.49 3.57 3.86 3.91 3.97 3.94 3.62 3.46 3.28 2.77 2.72Industrial countries 80.6 2.49 3.58 3.87 3.92 3.99 3.95 3.64 3.47 3.30 2.77 2.74

United States (US Federal funds rate) 25.5 3.21 4.96 5.02 5.26 5.25 5.09 4.48 4.21 3.90 2.96 2.69Japan (Discount Rate) 18.4 0.10 0.24 0.70 0.55 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75Euro Area (Eurosys main refi rate-minimum bid) 24.5 2.02 2.76 3.84 3.55 3.80 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00United Kindgom (Clearing bank's base rate) 3.9 4.65 4.64 5.51 5.22 5.39 5.74 5.68 5.54 5.50 5.30 5.25

Other high income 2.2 2.47 3.31 3.43 3.45 3.54 3.46 3.27 3.20 2.74 2.72 ..Hong Kong (Discount rate) 0.5 4.73 6.50 6.52 6.75 6.75 6.58 6.00 5.75 4.50 4.50 ..Singapore (MAS Interbank 1 month rate) 0.3 2.14 3.40 2.68 3.30 2.55 2.55 2.33 2.28 1.66 1.53 1.13Taiwan (Interbank swap overnight rate) 0.9 1.30 1.56 1.96 1.70 2.08 2.01 2.04 2.05 2.09 2.08 2.09

Developing countries 17.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..East Asia and Pacific 4.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China (Lending rate, 6m to 1y) 2.4 5.58 5.86 6.71 6.16 6.47 6.90 7.31 7.35 7.47 7.47 7.47Indonesia (SBI 90 day rate) 0.7 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18Thailand (14day Repo Rate - BOT) 0.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Malaysia (Interbank overnight rate) 0.3 2.74 3.39 3.50 3.51 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50

Europe and Central Asia 3.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Russian Federation (Discount (Refin.)) 1.2 12.98 11.64 10.27 10.64 10.43 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.24 ..Turkey (Interbank 1 week average) 0.6 16.31 16.76 18.29 18.69 18.61 18.48 17.39 16.93 16.52 16.28 16.16Poland (Interbank 2 week) 0.4 5.30 4.09 4.48 4.03 4.26 4.67 4.95 5.14 5.17 5.37 5.67Czech Republic (Repo rate 2 weeks) 0.2 1.96 2.17 2.86 2.50 2.58 3.01 3.34 3.50 3.50 3.69 3.75

Latin America and Caribbean 5.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Brazil (SELIC Target rate) 2.4 19.13 15.33 12.05 13.00 12.42 11.53 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25Mexico (CETES 91 day closing) 1.0 9.32 7.30 7.36 7.20 7.32 7.36 7.55 7.60 7.58 7.51 7.49Argentina (30 Day deposit) 0.9 3.66 6.45 8.09 7.21 7.02 8.39 9.75 10.07 8.99 8.16 7.70Colombia (Fixed Term Deposit) 0.3 7.08 6.27 7.94 6.96 7.59 8.52 8.70 8.82 9.06 9.10 9.74

Middle East and North Africa 1.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Saudi Arabia (IMF discount rate) 0.4 3.75 5.02 .. 4.97 4.93 4.90 .. .. .. .. ..Iran (IMF discount rate) 0.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Egypt (IMF discount rate) 0.2 10.00 9.00 .. 9.00 9.00 9.00 .. .. .. .. ..Algeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 .. .. ..

South Asia 1.6 .. .. ..India (Bank deposit 365+ days) 1.2 5.75 5.97 7.04 6.50 6.66 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50Pakistan (Repo 7-15 day) 0.2 6.82 8.58 9.09 8.88 8.91 9.08 9.52 9.62 9.50 9.41 10.10Bangladesh (Bank Rate) 0.1 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 .. .. ..Sri Lanka (Central bank repurchase) 0.0 8.09 9.14 10.43 10.20 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.0 .. .. ..South Africa (Repo rate) 0.5 7.14 7.63 9.61 9.00 9.13 9.75 10.57 10.90 11.00 11.00 11.00Nigeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 13.17 13.25 .. 10.00 9.33 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Memo:OECD 83.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Developing excl. China 14.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Developing oil exporters 2.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Developing non-oil exporters 15.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.11 Global Central Bank Interest Rates(percentage a/)

a/ Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures; except for the latest month, the figure reported for the latest month is the value on the date the data has been reported (which is the last daily observation one day before the note becomes available).b/ High-income aggregates use 1995 USD GDP weights.


Weights Average 2007 2007 2007 Latest1995 1998-07 2005 2006 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Dec Jan Feb 19-Mar

World .. 89 91 106 124 118 126 130 127 127 116 117 113

High-income countries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Industrial countries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

United States .. 88 90 100 112 108 114 115 111 111 104 101 100Japan .. 84 84 107 109 112 116 106 96 96 88 87 76Euro Area .. 96 99 121 148 141 151 152 153 153 136 137 134United Kindgom .. 88 85 98 106 104 109 107 106 106 97 97 92

Other high incomea .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Hong Kong (China) .. .. 110 127 152 140 145 162 167 167 148 147 134Singapore .. 102 104 121 171 159 179 185 176 176 171 .. ..Taiwan (China) .. 74 71 80 94 87 98 102 93 93 83 97 93

Developing countriesa,b .. 136 153 203 275 233 268 307 323 323 285 303 274East Asia and Pacificc .. 112 111 146 219 176 212 255 261 261 225 237 202

China .. 104 76 109 240 168 215 308 316 316 266 281 226Indonesia .. 168 188 268 397 326 377 423 500 500 489 523 438Thailand .. 166 206 231 282 238 279 307 316 316 295 335 324Malaysia .. 108 107 120 183 171 186 187 206 206 202 200 174

Europe and Central Asia .. .. 237 398 495 462 479 519 583 583 488 521 505Russian Federation .. 412 457 878 1046 1002 990 1074 1256 1256 1052 1136 1102Turkey .. 82 96 119 166 137 156 191 206 206 159 163 146Poland .. 146 166 228 319 297 338 329 328 328 284 294 298Czech Republic .. 267 361 484 674 577 644 734 835 835 756 837 847

Latin America and Caribbean .. 163 181 263 394 332 398 436 458 458 427 465 453Brazil .. 153 165 254 398 312 387 460 506 506 460 517 491Mexico .. 163 182 260 360 340 387 370 361 361 354 358 361Argentina .. 95 105 150 190 181 193 198 185 185 166 182 186Colombia .. 282 395 589 685 628 705 689 736 736 680 692 691

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 253 332 366 337 353 377 429 429 383 409 394Saudi Arabia .. .. 503 527 339 335 292 327 461 461 396 436 407Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Egypt .. 165 248 328 412 358 395 438 532 532 518 569 553Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..India .. 164 181 266 411 308 381 458 576 576 487 474 388Pakistan .. 211 272 370 452 392 496 469 487 487 479 525 508Bangladesh .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Sri Lanka .. 206 280 312 358 387 352 327 342 342 324 330 332

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa .. 188 234 307 378 361 370 385 392 392 334 355 340Nigeria .. 313 317 450 807 677 834 842 1030 1030 1030 1139 1126

Memo:OECD .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Developing excl. China .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Developing oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Developing non-oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.12 Stock Markets(indices, year 2000=100)

a/ Average for Developing countries and Other High Income countries is for the period 1995-2002Note: Quarterly and Monthly data is constructed from daily data by taking the last observation for the month. Annual data is the average over 12 months.b/ Aggregates defined by IFC/S&Pc/ East Asia Pacific including South AsiaSource: World - Morgan Stanley Capital International Index; USA - Wilshire 5000; Japan - Topix; Euro Area - S&P EUROPE 350; UK - Standard and Poor's 350; Hong Kong - Hang Seng Composite; Singapore - Singapore Stock Excahnge Composite Index;All Others are IFC/S&P Indices


GDP Gross domestic Product Current Account Balance 2007 2008 2009 2008 2009

Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECD

World 3.6 3.0 2.6 2.1 3.4 2.8 2.3 82 .. .. 111 .. ..High-income countries 2.5 1.9 1.5 2.0 2.4 1.8 2.2 -356 .. .. -261 .. ..

Industrial countries 2.4 1.8 1.4 2.0 2.3 1.7 2.2 -457 .. .. -369 .. ..United States 2.2 1.6 0.8 2.0 2.6 1.4 2.2 -711 -554 -775 -656 -518 -794Japan 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.4 1.8 235 242 229 247 270 254Euro Area 2.5 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 10 .. -13 14 .. -22United Kindgom 3.1 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.4 -107 -148 -91 -91 -135 -109

Other high income 5.8 4.6 4.2 .. 4.9 4.4 .. 100 .. .. 107 .. ..Hong Kong (China) 6.0 4.9 4.0 .. 5.1 4.6 .. 24 19 .. 27 23 ..Singapore 8.0 5.6 4.4 .. 5.9 4.7 .. 45 43 .. 48 42 ..Taiwan (China) 5.3 4.3 4.5 .. 4.6 4.3 .. 28 21 .. 28 21 ..

Developing countries 7.5 6.9 6.5 .. 6.6 6.3 .. 438.2 .. .. 372.5 .. ..East Asia and Pacific 10.2 9.2 8.9 .. 8.9 8.2 .. 430.1 .. .. 451.0 .. ..

China 11.4 10.3 9.8 .. 9.7 9.0 .. 381.5 415.2 431.2 402.0 474.3 517.9Indonesia 6.2 6.1 6.1 .. 6.0 5.7 .. 9.4 11.7 .. 9.4 7.5 ..Thailand 4.4 4.6 4.8 .. 5.0 4.3 .. 9.6 7.4 .. 8.1 -1.4 ..Malaysia 6.0 5.6 5.5 .. 5.9 5.7 .. 24.3 29.7 .. 25.4 32.9 ..

Europe and Central Asia 6.2 5.6 5.4 .. 5.6 5.4 .. -84.1 .. .. -126.4 .. ..Russian Federation 7.5 6.8 7.0 .. 6.5 6.0 .. 58.4 63.9 .. 23.8 40.4 ..Turkey 4.5 4.9 3.7 5.8 5.5 5.4 6.3 -43.3 -40.9 -45.5 -43.9 -41.6 -47.6Poland 6.5 5.3 5.1 5.6 4.9 4.3 5.1 -24.1 -20.8 -29.4 -28.0 -22.8 -35.5Czech Republic 6.0 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.9 5.4 4.9 -6.9 -6.9 -3.2 -7.1 -7.2 -1.4

Latin America and Caribbean 5.4 4.6 3.9 .. 4.3 4.0 .. -5.1 .. .. -26.7 .. ..Brazil 5.2 4.6 4.3 .. 4.4 4.0 .. -8.0 -5.6 .. -13.7 -4.8 ..Mexico 3.1 2.7 1.9 3.6 3.5 3.0 4.3 -12.9 -13.3 -16.4 -16.4 -15.3 -25.1Argentina 8.3 6.8 5.7 .. 4.8 4.5 .. 5.2 7.3 .. 3.3 6.8 ..Colombia 6.6 5.4 4.5 .. 5.0 4.0 .. -6.7 -7.9 .. -6.7 -7.7 ..

Middle East and North Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Saudi Arabia 4.9 4.9 6.0 .. 4.3 5.6 .. 110.0 92.6 .. 91.0 59.9 ..Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Egypt 7.3 7.0 7.4 .. 5.8 6.9 .. 2.1 1.5 .. 0.7 1.2 ..Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 8.1 8.1 7.3 .. 7.6 6.9 .. -22.9 .. .. -26.8 .. ..India 8.6 8.6 7.8 .. 7.9 7.2 .. -15.5 -28.2 .. -18.8 -19.0 ..Pakistan 6.2 5.8 5.0 .. 6.0 5.3 .. -7.6 -10.9 .. -7.9 -11.2 ..Bangladesh 6.2 5.8 5.7 .. 6.0 6.2 .. 0.2 0.1 .. -0.1 0.1 ..Sri Lanka 6.5 .. 4.5 .. .. 4.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa 4.8 4.5 4.1 .. 4.9 4.8 .. -19.5 -20.9 .. -19.9 -21.1 ..Nigeria 5.6 7.4 7.3 .. 6.8 6.5 .. 27.7 10.7 .. 29.7 6.3 ..

Memo:OECD 2.5 1.9 1.5 2.1 2.4 1.8 2.3 -553 .. .. -474 .. ..Developing excl. China 6.1 5.6 5.2 .. 5.4 5.1 .. 56.7 .. .. -29.5 .. ..Developing oil exporters 6.1 5.8 6.0 .. 5.0 5.5 .. 163.9 .. .. 139.5 .. ..Developing non-oil exporters 7.7 7.0 6.6 .. 6.8 6.3 .. 274.3 .. .. 233.0 .. ..Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.13 GDP and current account forecasts(annual percent change; billions of US dollars)

Sources: Consensus Economics Ltd.; The Economist Intelligence Unit and OECD.Regional Aggregates:Latin America and Carribean: ARG,BOL,BRA,CHL,COL,CRI,DOM,ECU,MEX,PAN,PER,PRY,URY,VENEurope and Central Asia: BGR,CZE,EST,HRV,HUN,KAZ,POL,ROM,RUS,SVK,TUR,UKREast Asia and Pacific: CHN, IDN,MYS,PHL,THAMiddle-East and North Africa: DZA,EGY,IRN,IRQ,JOR,LBN,MAR,OMN,SAU,SYR,TUN,YEMSouth Asia: BGD,IND,PAKSub-Saharan Africa: AGO,BWA,CIV,CMR,GAB,GHA,KEN,MUS,MWI,NAM,NGA,SDN,TZA,UGA,ZAF,ZMB,ZWEOther Aggregates:OECD:AUS,AUT,CAN,CHE,CZE,DEU,DNK,ESP,FIN,FRA,GBR,GRC,HUN,IRL,ISL,ITA,JPN,KOR,MEX,NLD,NOR,POL,PRT,SVK,SWE,TUR,USAIndustrial Countries: AUS,AUT,CAN,CHE,DEU,DNK,ESP,FIN,FRA,GBR,GRC,ITA,JPN,KOR,NLD,NOR,PRT,SWE,USAOther High Income: HKG,ISR,SGP,SVNDeveloping Oil Exporters: IDN,NGA,SAU,VEN

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