the family history world in 10 years time
TRANSCRIPT
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The Family History World in 10 Years Time By Dick Eastman
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Today’s PowerPoint slides are available at:
http://www.eogn.com/handouts/anchorage
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Introduction
History
The Present
The Future
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Introduction
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History
Genealogy0.5
•Original records•Compiled Sources (typically without source citations)•Elitism (everyone looking for a royal connection)•No microfilm, no microfiche, no easy travel, no archives open at 2 AM•Typically expensive•A few genealogy societies were created, mostly for elitists
Up to about 1920
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History
Genealogy1.0
Genealogy0.5
1920 - 1980
•Microfilming started in 1930s, a remarkable improvement•Growth of genealogy societies•Popular books, especially Alex Haley’s “Roots” in the 1960s, which became a #1 best seller•Reference books, sources
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History
Genealogy1.0
Genealogy0.5
Genealogy2.0
1980 - 2015
•Digital records•Social Networking•Television programs•Includes traditional genealogists and an expanded new audience
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Genealogy1.0
Genealogy3.0
Genealogy0.5
Genealogy2.0
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Genealogy1.0
Genealogy3.0
Genealogy0.5
Genealogy2.0
2016 and Beyond
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The Present
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The Present
Impossible to determine but...• over 500 million names on
FamilySearch.org• 10 billion on Ancestry.com• 6 billion on MyHeritage.com• And many more on other genealogy
web sites
How many records are online today?
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The Present
• Plus:– Google Books– Twitter– Facebook– Wikis (WeRelate.org) – Bloggers– And more…
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A Look at the Future
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A Look at the Future
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A Look at the Future
2016 – 2026
Tough to predict, but we can expect:
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More records online
Online, everywhere, all the time
New and better software
A changing audience
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In the Next 10 Years
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More records online1
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More records online1
No surprises here!
Records will be online for better access
…and for records preservation
Mostly images of original records
…with transcriptions
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More records online1
Will include…
Most all present-day microfilms, books, and paper records from local records offices
Archives of email
Archives of Facebook and other online sites
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More records online1
These will fulfill two purposes:
1. Records for future genealogists
2. Archival copies for government offices
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More records online
Online, everywhere, all the time
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• All shared information is moving to the cloud.
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• All shared information is moving to the cloud.
• Access is available anytime, anywhere.
• From a desktop computer, from a laptop computer, from a tablet, from a smartphone, or from any future devices not yet invented.
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More records online
Online, everywhere, all the time
New and Better Software
1
2
3
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• New and better software
• Cloud-based
• Collaborative
• Works on any platform: Windows, Macintosh, Linux, Apple’s iOS, Android, and future products
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More records online
Online, everywhere, all the time
New and Better Software
A changing audience
1
2
3
4
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• The genealogy audience is getting younger!
• Driven by technology?• Driven by television and
other mass media
• Today, genealogy is cool!
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• This future audience has different interests:
• Most future genealogists will be interested in stories of certain ancestors, may not care to know all ancestors• Probably won't care about pedigree charts
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• This future audience has different interests:
• More interested in individuals’ stories
• Not classified by age, gender, or nationality• May not join
societies
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• In one recent example of a group of college-aged genealogists/historians:
• 40% were born outside the country
• 90% had one or more grandparents born outside the country
• Census records are useless to them!
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• In one recent example of a group of college-aged genealogists/historians:
• 50% classified themselves as non-white
• 50% did not share a surname with their fathers!
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We need global resources (India, Pakistan, Jamaica, Nigeria, etc)
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These are our future genealogists!
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Changing TechnologyDictates the Access to
Records of Interest
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• According to Hewlett-Packard Sr. VP, Shane Robison in his keynote address at RootsTech2011:
• Sales of desktop computers are declining worldwide every year• Sales of laptop computers are slowly climbing every year• Sales of tablet & handheld computers are skyrocketing!
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• Within 5 years, 60% of all Internet access worldwide will be by people who do not own a “regular” computer.
• That percentage is expected to increase further
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Shane Robison's keynote address at RootsTech2011 was forecasting the Internet in five years.
• In other words, he was forecasting today!
• His forecasts have mostly come true.
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Digitize Everything!
• Tomorrow’s genealogy world:• Many more records online• Different demographics of
genealogists• Many do not share
surnames with fathers
How will your society serve
this audience?
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To forecast the next 10 years:
Traditional libraries will cease to exist
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A Look at the Future
• Within ten years, all of today’s books will all be digitized and made available to everyone at any time, anywhere. In many cases, a small fee will be charged.
• That is ALL of today’s books. Travel to distant libraries will be unnecessary.
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A Look at the Future
• Libraries will be available on tablet computers, cell phones, laptop computers, desktop computers, and on technology we have not yet invented
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A Look at the Future
• “Libraries” will be online, open 24 hours a day/7 days a week, available to everyone in the world with an Internet connection (which will be most everyone)
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A Look at the Future
• Societies MAY play a larger role than ever in providing information about local historical topics and residents.
• Societies will be able to derive revenue from online publishing, the same as in traditional publishing on paper.
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A Look at the Future
• Individuals will also play a major role in making records available via electronic libraries.
• Many “cottage industries” will spring up to provide informationof interest to others.
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A Look at the Future
• As to your genealogy information:
– Make it available in digital format
– Share it with others
– Make numerous backups!
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A Look at the Future
• Properly cared for, the information you save can be preserved for centuries
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www.eogn.com
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Today’s PowerPoint slides are available at:
http://www.eogn.com/handouts/anchorage