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The Findings of the IEEE 802.3 Industry Connections yEthernet Bandwidth Assessment Ad Hoc(Plus Updated Data)
Joint ITU/IEEE WorkshopEthernet – Emerging Applications and Technologies
Geneva, Switzerland22 September 2012
Regarding the Expressed Views
• Per IEEE‐SA Standards Board Operations Manual January 2005:Manual, January 2005:“At lectures, symposia, seminars, or educational courses an individualeducational courses, an individual presenting information on IEEE standards shall make it clear that his or her viewsshall make it clear that his or her views should be considered the personal views of that individual rather than the formal position, explanation, or interpretation of the IEEE.”
Page 2Joint ITU/IEEE Workshop, Ethernet – Emerging Applications and Technologies22 September 2012, Geneva, Switzerland
Authors
• John D’Ambrosia, Dell, IEEE 802.3 BWA Chair
• Peter Anslow, Ciena, IEEE 802.3 BWA Editor, ,
• Mike Bennett, LBNL / ESnet
Page 3Joint ITU/IEEE Workshop, Ethernet – Emerging Applications and Technologies22 September 2012, Geneva, Switzerland
Disclaimers
• All contributed information is solely the i f h i ibperspective of the respective contributors.
• The views expressed in the Assessment solely represent the views of the IEEE 802.3 Working Group, and do not necessarily represent a position of the IEEE, the IEEE Standards Association, or IEEE 802.
Page 4Joint ITU/IEEE Workshop, Ethernet – Emerging Applications and Technologies22 September 2012, Geneva, Switzerland
The 2006 HSSG Call‐For‐Interest
The Ethernet EcosystemConsumer Broadband Access
Content Providers
BroadbandAccess Networks Content
Networks
Internet BackboneNetworks
ResearchNetworksEnterprise
Networks
Internet BackboneNetworks
Research, Educationand Government Facilities
(High Performance Computing)
Corporate Data Centers and Enterprise
(High Performance Computing)
Internet eXchange andInterconnection Points
Page 5
Higher Speed Study Group CFI, V 1.01San Diego, CA
July 18, 2006 20
Computing)
Joint ITU/IEEE Workshop, Ethernet – Emerging Applications and Technologies22 September 2012, Geneva, Switzerland
Transport Network Classifications
Core NodeCore NodeAggregation NodeAggregation Node
Aggregation NodeAggregation Node Core NodeCore Node
Access NodeAccess NodeAccess NodeAccess Node
Feeding the Networks • Consumers• Businesses (data centers)
Note: “Aggregation Nodes” in single carrier networks are equivalent to “IXPs“ in multi carrier networks
)
Page 6
Source: http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/public/nov11/huang_01_1111.pdf
Joint ITU/IEEE Workshop, Ethernet – Emerging Applications and Technologies22 September 2012, Geneva, Switzerland
The 2007 HSSG Tutorial
Why Higher Speed Ethernet?
Fundamental bottlenecks are happening everywhere
Increased # of users
Increased access
rates and methods
Increased services++ =Bandwidth
explosioneverywhere
As demonstrated by the number of ISPs: Comcast, AOL, YahooBB, NTT Cox
EFM, xDSL, WiMax, xPON, Cable, WiFi,3G/4G
YouTube, BitTorrent, VOD, Facebook, Kazaa Netflix NTT, Cox,
EasyNet, Rogers, BT, ...
3G/4G… Kazaa, Netflix, iTunes, 2nd
life, Gaming…
Page 7
18IEEE 802.3 Higher Speed Study Group - TUTORIAL
Joint ITU/IEEE Workshop, Ethernet – Emerging Applications and Technologies22 September 2012, Geneva, Switzerland
Life after IEEE P802.3ba
• End‐users through the prior HSSG: The next speed of 1,000,000HSSG: The next speed of Ethernet must begin when 100GbE done!
• HSSG Bandwidth Forecast for100,000
1,000,000
40 Gi bi E h
100 Gigabit Ethernet
HSSG Bandwidth Forecast for “Core Networking”– 2013: 400 Gb/s– 2015: 1 Tb/s
10,000
Rate
Mb/s
Core Networking Doubling ≈18 mos
10 Gigabit Ethernet
40 Gigabit Ethernet
2015: 1 Tb/s
• Other bandwidth trends?
• 2011 F ti f
1,000R
Gigabit Ethernet
Server I/O Doubling ≈24 mos• 2011 Formation of:
IEEE 802.3 Industry Connections Ethernet Bandwidth Assessment Ad Hoc
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
100
Date
Doubling ≈24 mos
Hoc
Page 8Joint ITU/IEEE Workshop, Ethernet – Emerging Applications and Technologies22 September 2012, Geneva, Switzerland
IEEE 802.3 BWAWeb & Reflector Information
• Assessment ‐ http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/BWA_Report.pdf
• Tutorial• Tutorial ‐ http://www.ieee802.org/802_tutorials/2012‐07/BWATutorial_D1_12_0716.pdf
• Webpage ‐ http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/index.html
• Reflector ‐ http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad hoc/bwa/reflector.htmlReflector http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/reflector.html
• Charter and Scope– Evaluate Ethernet wireline bandwidth needs of the industry
– Reference material for a future activityReference material for a future activity– The role of this ad hoc is to gather information, not make recommendations or create a CFI
Page 9Joint ITU/IEEE Workshop, Ethernet – Emerging Applications and Technologies22 September 2012, Geneva, Switzerland
Global IP Traffic by Local Access Technology
Page 10
Source: nowell_01_0911.pdf citing Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015, http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/public/sep11/nowell_01_0911.pdf
Joint ITU/IEEE Workshop, Ethernet – Emerging Applications and Technologies22 September 2012, Geneva, Switzerland
Global IP Traffic Growth, 2010–2015Regional contributions to the Zettabyte journey
North AmericaNorth America Western EuropeWestern Europe Central/Eastern EuropeCentral/Eastern EuropeNorth AmericaNorth America
22.3 22.3 EBEB/Month by 2015/Month by 201526% 26% CAGRCAGR, , 3X3X GrowthGrowth
Western EuropeWestern Europe
18.9 18.9 EBEB/Month by 2015/Month by 201532% CAGR, 32% CAGR, 4X4X GrowthGrowth
Central/Eastern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe
3.7 3.7 EBEB/Month by 2015/Month by 201539% 39% CAGRCAGR, , 5X5X GrowthGrowth
JapanJapan
4.8 EB/Month by 20154.8 EB/Month by 201527% 27% CAGRCAGR, , 3X3X GrowthGrowth
Latin AmericaLatin America
4.7 4.7 EBEB/Month by 2015/Month by 201548%48% CAGRCAGR 7X7X GrowthGrowth
Middle East & Africa
2.0 EB/Month by 201552% CAGR 8X Growth
Asia PacificAsia Pacific
24.1 24.1 EBEB/Month by 2015/Month by 201535% CAGR35% CAGR 4X4X GrowthGrowth48% 48% CAGRCAGR, , 7X7X GrowthGrowth 52% CAGR, 8X Growth 35% CAGR, 35% CAGR, 4X4X GrowthGrowth
Source: nowell_01_0911.pdf citing Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015, http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/public/sep11/nowell_01_0911.pdf
Page 11Joint ITU/IEEE Workshop, Ethernet – Emerging Applications and Technologies22 September 2012, Geneva, Switzerland
Data Center Growth
Increased Storage
Increased Processing
Increased Bandwidth
++ = Bandwidth l
NetworkingEntered the 100GbE era in 2010Individual switches have Tb/s of bandwidth
Storage Processing Bandwidth Explosion
Networking Individual switches have Tb/s of bandwidth
ComputeFirst petaflop supercomputers in 2011Individual servers delivering 10s of Gb/s of I/OPCIe 3.0 supports 2 x 40GbE NICs now
StorageEntered the zettabyte (1 billion terabytes) era in 2010Individual disk drives over 1 terabyte
Page 12
Storage1000 disk drive storage subsystem equals 1 Petabyte
Joint ITU/IEEE Workshop, Ethernet – Emerging Applications and Technologies22 September 2012, Geneva, Switzerland
Euro‐IX IXP Locations
132 IXPs132 IXPs36 Countries140 Cities420 Locations
Euro‐IX affiliated IXPs
Soon to be affiliated IXPs
Page 13
Source: http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/public/nov11/steenman_01_1111.pdf
Note: Global 321 IXP’s (100%), EU 41%, America’s 33%, Asia‐Pacific 19%, Africa 7%
Joint ITU/IEEE Workshop, Ethernet – Emerging Applications and Technologies22 September 2012, Geneva, Switzerland
Five Year Peak European IXP Traffic ProjectionsTb
/s
Tb/s
Page 14
Source: http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/public/nov11/steenman_01_1111.pdf
Joint ITU/IEEE Workshop, Ethernet – Emerging Applications and Technologies22 September 2012, Geneva, Switzerland
Global Annual IXP Peak Traffic Growth Rates:By Region (for 2010)
Page 15
Source: http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/public/nov11/steenman_01_1111.pdf
Joint ITU/IEEE Workshop, Ethernet – Emerging Applications and Technologies22 September 2012, Geneva, Switzerland
Science: Big Data Sources
CERN is “the tip of the iceberg”
Today
• CERN– Atlas detector in LHC (Large Hadron
C llid ) 1 b /
• Belle‐II– 250PB of experimental data in first 5 years of
operation
Future
Collider) generates ~1 petabyte/sec
– Trigger farm reduces to 450MB/sec• Tens of Gb/s of outbound traffic to
analysis centers
operation
• Square Kilometer Array (SKA) – ~2800 receivers in telescope array
2 petabytes/sec to central correlator
• Genome sequencing– Per‐instrument data rate strongly ↗
(~10x over 5 years)
Data costs plummeting vastly
– 2 petabytes/sec to central correlator
• sending @ ~100 Gb/s to analysis centers
– Data costs plummeting vastly increased data volume
– http://www.genome.gov/sequencingcosts/
Page 16Joint ITU/IEEE Workshop, Ethernet – Emerging Applications and Technologies22 September 2012, Geneva, Switzerland
Source: http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/public/dec11/dart_01_1211.pdf (updated: interview Eli Dart, August 29, 2012)
ESnet Accepted Traffic (Petabytes/month)
100.0000
ESnet Accepted Traffic: Jan 1990 - Jul 2012 (Log Scale)
1.0000
10.0000
0.0100
0.1000
Pet
abyt
es
Expecting 100 Petabytes/month
0.0001
0.0010
of data in 2015
Jan 1990 Jul 1990 Jan 1991 Jul 1991 Jan 1992 Jul 1992 Jan 1993 Jul 1993 Jan 1994 Jul 1994 Jan 1995 Jul 1995 Jan 1996 Jul 1996 Jan 1997 Jul 1997 Jan 1998 Jul 1998 Jan 1999 Jul 1999 Jan 2000 Jul 2000 Jan 2001 Jul 2001 Jan 2002 Jul 2002 Jan 2003 Jul 2003 Jan 2004 Jul 2004 Jan 2005 Jul 2005 Jan 2006 Jul 2006 Jan 2007 Jul 2007 Jan 2008 Jul 2008 Jan 2009 Jul 2009 Jan 2010 Jul 2010 Jan 2011 Jul 2011 Jan 2012 Jul 2012
0.0000
Page 17
Source: http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/public/dec11/dart_01_1211.pdf (updated 29 August, 2012)
Joint ITU/IEEE Workshop, Ethernet – Emerging Applications and Technologies22 September 2012, Geneva, Switzerland
Month
Summary method
• Relative growth of the various sectors plotted on a single charton a single chart– The growth of each sector was normalized to 2010 (the year IEEE Std 802.3ba was approved)
Thi th i di t f th f t l if• This growth is a predictor of the future only if downward cost per bit trend is continued– Ethernet cost per bit has to fall with time or theEthernet cost per bit has to fall with time or the predicted exponential rise in traffic will result in unsupportable costs
• Servicing demand with existing rates or new• Servicing demand with existing rates or new ones > 100 Gb/s will depend on the cost effectiveness of the solution
Page 18Joint ITU/IEEE Workshop, Ethernet – Emerging Applications and Technologies22 September 2012, Geneva, Switzerland
Growth Rate Trends
100Financial sectorfit to Figure 15 CAGR 95%Science
10
0 value
CAGR = 95%
Peeringfit t Fi 39
Sciencefit to Figure 13
ESnet 2004 to 2011CAGR = 70%
1
tive to
2010 fit to Figure 39
CAGR = 64%
CableFigure 20 CAGR 50%
Figure 39 Euro‐IXhi t i l d t
HSSG tutorialSlide 22 coreCAGR = 58%
0.1Traffic
rela
IP trafficFigure 2
CAGR = 50%historical data
HSSG tutorialSlide 22 server I/O
CAGR = 36%
0 01
Figure 2 CAGR = 32%
Figure 15 NYSE historical data
Page 19
0.01
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020Joint ITU/IEEE Workshop, Ethernet – Emerging Applications and Technologies22 September 2012, Geneva, Switzerland
JD4
Slide 19
JD4 pete - somewhere in here we need to work the word "average"JDAMBROSIA, 8/28/2012
IEEE 802.3 Higher Speed Ethernet Consensus Ad Hoc
• Charter and Scope b ld l d h d f h– Focus on building consensus related to the next speed of Ethernet
for wireline applications, which will be used for the evaluation and possible development of an IEEE 802.3 Call‐For‐Interest for the next Higher Speed Study Group The requested duration for this IndustryHigher Speed Study Group. The requested duration for this Industry Connections activity is 12 months.
• Webpage – http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad hoc/hse/index.htmlp g p // g/ / _ / /
• Reflector ‐ http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/reflector.html
• Participation is open and all are invited• Participation is open and all are invited.
• Chair – John D’Ambrosia, Dell ([email protected])
Page 20Joint ITU/IEEE Workshop, Ethernet – Emerging Applications and Technologies22 September 2012, Geneva, Switzerland
The Ethernet Eco‐System
Rate (b/s)
1T ? Key:
10G
100G
40GBackplane
Twin-axial
Multimode Fibre
Chip-to chip/module
100M
1G
Twisted pair
Co-axial
Single-mode Fibre
Voice grade copper
10M
1M
Point to Multipoint Fibre
Open Circle indicates development effort
Single-mode Fibre
Distance (m)10 102 103 104 10510.1
Based on slide used by permission from David Law.
Page 21Joint ITU/IEEE Workshop, Ethernet – Emerging Applications and Technologies22 September 2012, Geneva, Switzerland
THANK YOU!THANK YOU!QUESTIONS?
Page 22Joint ITU/IEEE Workshop, Ethernet – Emerging Applications and Technologies22 September 2012, Geneva, Switzerland