La fragmentacion del poder europeo

The fragmentation of European powerJos Ignacio TorreblancaIcaria / Poltica Exterior, 2011

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In a world where China and other emerging countries are on the rise, the power and presence of the European Union is becoming marginal and its voice weaker. However, it cannot be said that the EU is weak nor that it lacks power. Today it is still the worlds biggest economy, the second biggest commercial block, the biggest aid donor and the worlds second biggest military power. Europe is powerful but introverted and therefore it exerts its power in a fragmented manner. Although the European project is in crisis, its decline is not inevitable.

This book analyzes the difficulties for Europe in acting united and being a relevant power in the world, but it does so from a conviction that the values Europe represents are not only the best ones but also the only ones that can guarantee peace and prosperity for the Europeans. Javier Solana

This book offers an excellent exercise in summarizing and a reflection on the last decade in Europe, which involves one of the greatest displacements of world power that has ever been seen by current generations. The idea of Europe as a fragmented power perfectly captures the nature of its problems and limitations and is very useful for devising the possible paths that could be taken for the recovery of the European idea. Llus Bassets

Jos Ignacio Torreblanca, through his weekly articles in El Pas, has taught us how often, in the construction of Europe, the king walks naked. In The Fragmentation of European power, these flashes of virtue form a pool, and lose the attractiveness of a prose, the unexpected from the images or the daily apparel, curdling from a splendid image which matures and which, without doubt, forms what nowadays constitutes the biggest challenge in which us Spanish must confront at the beginning of the 21st century. Ana Palacio

European power, whose fragmentation Jos Ignacio Torreblanca studies, never existed in reality. However, the deconstruction of this ghost reveals some blueprints in how to build a European habitat in the real worlds ecosystem. Carlos Alonso Zaldvar

The fragmentation of European powerJos Ignacio TorreblancaIcaria / Poltica Exterior, 2011(232 pages 18 )

Content

Where the idea to write this book occurred: two narratives of power

Hard and soft power. Are Europeans really from Venus and Americans from Mars? Is Europe a normative or civil power? Its time to overcome this discussion; Europes power is neither hard nor soft, it is fragmented. In the meantime, Spain and the rest of the Europeans were settling in precious mansions. Soft power: Sense and sensibility. LinkTypical topics. Hard power: Skopje (Macedonia), February 2008 : The United States builds a large and ugly embassy. Link

The Asian century

Chapter 1: The end of the European dreamSource: WorldmapperWorldmapper helps us to reconstruct the world according to different categories and magnitudes. If population size is taken into account, the world would appear as on the image above. China and India alone have 40% of the worlds population. Asia has 60%.

A declining Europe

Source: Eurostat 2010In 1960, one out of every five habitants in the world was a European. However in 2005, Europe had already lost half of its population (in relative terms), leading to a situation where only one in every ten habitants in the world was European..

In 1960, one out of every 5 people was European, in 2050, only one in every 20 will be so

Source: Eurostat 2008According to current demographic projections, there will be less Europeans who will also be older. If one looks at Russia, it will age even faster. Due to its demographic problems it appears as a European power. On the other hand, the United States, which is capable of attracting and integrating immigrants, has the opposite demographic perdictions than Europe.

Europe without Europeans

Source: Eurostat 2010In 2005 Europe had 11.2% of the worlds population, China 20.02%, India 17.4% and the United States 4.6%. The projections state that in 2050 Europe will have around 7.5% of the worlds population, China 15% and India 17.6%. These statistics should force us to face up to the challenge of how to create a Europe without Europeans. Europeans are old, expensive and declining in number while at the same time they do not indentify themselves with the European project sufficiently.

Source: Bertlesmann StiftungFrom the following list of countries, which countries do you think are world powers?

In 2005, the Bertelsmann Foundation asked citizens of different countries around the world which countries they considered world powers. In the fifth column one can see that only the Europeans considered themselves as a world power. Only 15% of Brazilians, 17% of Chinese and 7% of Indians saw Europe as such. Approximately 1 out of every 4 Americans and Russians saw it as a world power. The Germans, French and English did not have a corresponding perception.

Which countries do you think will be world powers in 2010?

Source: Bertlesmann StiftungFuture perspectives do not appear promising either. The correspondents do not think that Europe will rise, but rather that it will stay in its actual zone, in other words, one of irrelevance.

How do outsiders see our influence?

2010 Source: BBC World Service Poll 2010A BBC survey demonstrates that foreigners see Europes influence, in general, as positive. In the United States, Brazil, China and Russia it is not seen as negative. Interestingly however, Turkey is one of the few countries where the EUs influence is seen as negative.

Chapter 2: A small Asian peninsula

The BRICs are already here.Source: Goldman Sachs 2003According to Goldman Sachs predictions (2003), emerging economies will slowly overtake the G-6 (this excludes Canada). This overtake will be completed around 2040, when the BRICs economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China) will be larger than the G-6s (United States, Germany, United Kingdom, France and Italy).

Projections for the BRICs and the West (2003 and 2008)

Source: Goldman Sachs 2009The most interesting fact about Goldman Sachs predictions on China is that they have always been wrong and against China. Every prediction has been disapproved by reality, in other words, China has always grown more than had been expected. If in 2003 it was though that China would overtake the United States in 2041, this changed in 2008 when the predictions were lowered to 2027 and they continue to be lowered today.

Underestimating the BRICs

The world in 2050: 2003 perspective (the graph on the left) and 2008 perspective (the graph on the right)Source: Goldman Sachs 2009The graph on the left shows the predictions made in 2003 on how large the worlds economies would be in 2005. The size of Chinas economy was estimated (in 2003) that it would be $ 45,000 billion (in 2050). However in 2008 the estimates were changed to $70,000 billion (in 2050).

The struggle for energy resources in a multipolar world: the Chinese giant needs more energy

Fuente: Financial Times, 20/01/2011 Are there enough energy resources in the world to satisfy China? China is on the verge of overtaking the United States as the worlds biggest consumer of energy (graph on the left) and it is currently already the second biggest importer of oil in the world (graph on the right). From these facts rises its African policies and the necessity to assure supply.

The 21st century will be a G-2 world

Source: The Guardian, 20/04/2011 The United States is living in a Sputnik moment: comparisons between the United States and China do not show a clear lead for the US while Obama is currently preparing the US for a post-American century. The European Union should also think about what its role in such a world.

Chapter 3: Power fragmentsEEurope continues to be an economic superpowerSource: IMF World Economic DatabaseEven during the economic crisis, the EU-27 economies are larger than the American economy. And three times bigger than Chinas. The rest of the BRICs trial far behind the EU. Economically, there is much more to Europe than it appears (data in billions of Euros).

and also a trade superpower

Source: Eurostat 2010As a trade partner, the Europeans lack rivals. Its market continues to be the most attractive in the world.

The United States' hypertrophy:

One area where Europe cannot compete with the United States is defense spending. The US represents almost half of the worlds spending on defense and the consequences of this might are enormous. Psychologically, it is said, when one has a hammer, everything appears to you as a nail. One can say something similar for the US. The US Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates, said that he would prefer more diplomats rather than soldiers (and allies more willing to cooperate).

Europe and the United States are more and more incompatible EuropeUnited StatesTotal defence expenditure 194 billion 498 billionDefence expenditure as % of GDP1,67% 4,9%Defence expenditure per capita 392 1.622Define spending in the US and Europe in 2009

Source: European Defence Agency 2009 y Financial Times, 16/11/2010Is Robert Gates correct when he speaks of the demilitarization of Europe? Are we really from Venus and the Americans from Mars? The war in Libya shows that the US was right to be frustrated with Europe. NATO is in an intensive care unit, but nobody dares to say it publicly.

Europe is reducing its defense expenditure while the BRICs are increasing it

Source: IISS, The Military Balance 2010The BRICs defense expenditure is increasing while the European's is decreasing. The UK-France agreement to share aircraft carriers has been described as a substitution of the entente cordial to entente frugal.

Europe does not spend little: its military expenditure is high but it spends it badlyWorld expenditure$950, in billionsUnited States$466EU-27$207The rest of the world$102China$65Russia$50Japan$41,7India$19Europes problems is not that it spends little, its that it spends badly. The defense expenditure of the EU-27 represents about one of the worlds defense expenditure. Their total defense expenditure of around $200 billion reflects different priorities from the Cold War, their political necessities and national prejudices. The Treaty of Lisbon includes the legal mechanism to overcome this problem, but the political will is non-existent.

Some Europeans spend a lot, others few: the defense of the 27 is a thing for 2

Source: ECFR, Re-energising Europes Security and Defence PolicyAs important as quantity and quality is fairness. In the EU, two EU member states (France and the UK) spend almost 50% of defense spending in Europe. However, the politics of the common defense policy are governed by unanimity. It appears as though Europe is still not mature enough to change the rules of the game.

Many embassies, few results

Source: Lamo, Emilio (ed), Europa despus de Europa, Academia Europea de Ciencias, 2010, p.377.The EUs foreign policy has three Ds (defense, diplomacy and development). The diplomatic dimension consists of a large number of redundancies duplications. The European External Action Service (EEAS) created by the Lisbon Treaty, was meant to resolve these problems but reality has gone down a different path; we have now moved from the troika to trio.

A sufficient number of diplomats but very dispersedResultados de las votaciones en materia de derechos humanos en ONU. Source: ECFR, The EU and human rights at the UN, 2009 review

The power of the EU at the United Nations has been decreasing. More then 1,000 annual meetings between the Europeans to coordinate policies at the UN has lead to the EU voting almost always together. However, the success of this has been low due to the fact that the eurosphere is becoming weaker in the area of human rights. China, Russia and other emerging economies have become more successful in attracting African, Asian and Latin countries to adopt their positions.

World superpower in development assistance

ODA (millions of $)UE-2759,909United States25,173Japan6,166Other CAD5,443Other non-CAD5,580Source: OECD 2009Europe continues to the worlds biggest aid donor. However, due to its network of dispersed relations and delegations around the world, especially in the ACP countries, the EU does not achieve its desired goal of getting these countries to vote with it in the UN. China has converted itself into Europes primary rival in the African sphere.

but with many free-riders

Source: Eurostat 2010AOD como % de Producto Bruto Interno Once again, the total spending in Europe on aid hides the realities of donor asymmetries. Official development assistance spending is above the UN target in few EU countries, while others look the other way (such as Italy, in particular).

Bosnias aid map reveals some secrets

A typical example of the fragmentation of European power is Bosnia. Bosnias donor map clearly shows the dispersion of aid. Bosnia is under de facto European administration and it has received hundreds of millions of Euros in European aid. However, the image of the EU in Bosnia is neither good nor does the EU manage to persuade the officials in the country to adopt the reforms necessary to place Bosnia on a path towards EU integration.

Chapter 4: A lost decade

Source: Parlamento EuropeoThe decade in which European politics was meant to become reality has been the decade that the Europeans have begun to distance themselves from Europe. Attendance in the European Parliaments elections have been particularly low, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, which has surprised a large part of the world.

The rise of xenophobia

Source: Financial Times, 15/11/2010The rise of xenophobia in Europe questions its true values, both those projected inside the EU as well as those projected in its foreign policy.

Fear of immigrants

Source: Financial Times There appears to be no relation between the number of immigrants and (the rise of) xenophobic parties. In Holland and France, where the percentage of immigrants is low, xenophobic parties have been on the rise.

Europa: the land of asylum and refuge

Source: Financial Times, 14/06/2011The traditions of asylum between EU member states. Many lack an asylum culture.

Chapter 5: Swimming with sharks

Source: ECFR, Towards a post-American Europe

American fetishism: Thirteen EU member states believe that they have a special relationship with the United States. The expectations in Europe of Bushs departure and Obamas arrival in the White House were high, however they did not change the icy relationship.

From 20.000 (2006) to 40.000 soldiers (2011). However, the increase in European troops has not convinced the US.

Source: ISAF, Junio 2011In Afghanistan, European leaders irritate the United States because of their unavailability in combat and due to their reluctance to increase contingents. Furthermore, the Europeans appear to alienate their electorates, which appear to be more or less happy with the deployment in Afghanistan.

China divides us: four different positions on trade and human rightsSource: ECFR, A Power Audit of EU-China relationsThe relationship each EU member state has with China is very different although they can be divided into four groups depending on how soft or tough they are in their relationship with China on human rights and trade issues.

And Russia divides us even moreSource: Popescu & Leonard, Eu-Russia Power Audit

Frosty pragmatists

The new Cold-Warriors

Chapter 6: Nobody loves me

European values are not majoritarian Source: Freedom House 2010Europeans record on the promotion of democracy and human rights has been questionable. Democracies do not constitute the majority in the world nor do states have similar practices of promoting democracies. Brazil, India, South Africa, and Turkey, for example, do not always vote with Europe.

At the UN, the EU is becoming more isolated

Source: ECFR, The EU and human rights at the UN: 2010 review y A Global Force for Human Rights? EU member states insist that the UN is fundamental in their vision of a international system and universal human rights, but the organization is becoming more dominated by China, Russia and their allies. The active diplomacy by Beijing and Moscow to find allies for their axis of sovereignty demands a new approach by the Europeans to counter it.

Too many Europeans, too little EuropeMembers of the G-20 ArgentinaAustraliaBrasilCanadaChinaFraneGermantIndiaIndonesiaItalyJapanMxicoRusisaSaudi ArabiaSouth AfricaSouth KoreaTurkeyUnited KongdomUnited StatesEuropean Union (the Presidents of the Commission and Council)Spain (permanent invited member)Source: Solbes, Pedro in: Challenges for European Foreign policy in 2011, FRIDEThe EU must reflect on the complexity and messiness of its own internal economic governance that inter aliacomplicates effective external action. The Eurogroup-Ecofin duality or rivalry not only affects the internal system of decision-making, but also muddies the external representation of the EU and the euro-zone.. - Pedro Solbes

Chapter 7: The new kids on the block

Source: ECFR, New World Order: The balance fo soft power and the rise of Herbivorous PowerIndia, South Africa, Russia and Brazil are natural leaders in their regions.

India: is anybody there?

The Europeans and the Indians do not understand each other: in India there are more people who have an unfavorable opinion about the EU than favorable. A surprising fact, considering the fact that both are democracies that are market-orientated.Source: Pew Research Center 2010

Brazil

The percentage of people who have a favorable opinion about the EU opinionSource: Pew Global Attitudes Project, Financial Times 15/03/2011 Brazil could be the new energy giant

Turkey is walking away

Source: Transatlantic Trends 2010The percentage of the Turkish population that wants their country to join the EU has been decreasing since the adhesion negotiations began. The EUs attractiveness is weakening.

Chapter 8: The others weaknessesThe Europeans are still 30 times richer than the Indians, 10 times richer than the Chinese and 4 times richer than the Russians. Source: World Bank 2010 (current dollars)

According to the World Bank GDP per capita in 2009 for India was: $1,192, China: $3,744, Brazil: $8,230, Russia: $8,684, la EU: $32, 845 and the US: $45,989.

Be careful with the bubbles: The BRICs also have their imbalances. Inflation was quite high in Russia and India in 2010 as well as in Brazil.

Source: WSJ, Feeling the heat

China will be old before becoming rich

Source: Land of the rising sonChina single child policy is already having implications on its demographics

China has 110 proposed reactors in the works. Will they be reliable?

Source: Financial Times

Russias demographics

Source: Prospect Magazine y Foreign Affairs, The Demographic Future - In 1993, Russias population was 148.6 millions.- In 2010 it was 141.9 millions.- In 17 years Russia lost almost 7 millions people. The World Health Organization stated in 2008 that life expectancy in Russia for children aged 15 was less than in Cambodia, Eritrea and Haiti. Life expectancy in Spain is 14 years higher than in Russia.

More cell phones than toilets and a lot of corruption in India

Source: UN Report 2010 y Financial Times, 21/03/2011The BRICs have high inequality rates and corruption is extended to large parts of the society. The number of Russia millionaires has multiplied by 21, and by 6 in India. According to a UN study, only 366 million people had access to toilets and running water in India while 545 million have a cell phone.

Brazil; an economy with weaknesses

Brazils economic growth has been high, but its industry is weak in the face of Chinese imports of manufactured goods and electronics. The Brazilian state is also ineffective and has a large corruption problem. The Doing Business index places Brazil on the 172 position, under Russia (123 position) and China (79 position).

Chapter 9: An introverted DNA

The evolution of the foreign service in the European Commission between 1969-1998Africa, Caribbean and Pacific countries (ACP) and non-ACP countriesSource: Bruter, Michael (1999) 'Diplomacy without a state: the external delegations of the EuropeanCommission', Journal of European Public Policy, 6: 2, 183 205The EECs first foreign delegations responded to the necessity of managing aid flows and relations with ex-colonies, not to a calling to have a foreign policy. EU member states retained their foreign policy (high politics) and delegated the European Commission trade and aid issues.

Trade between the European community and EFTA

Source: European NavigatorEnlargement has not been the product of deliberate design but rather of unexpected events. The economic success of the EEC attracted the United Kingdom and others. The democratic factor attracted southern Europe. But Europe has always carried out enlargements against its will. The European project has an expansion logic, but not a expansion will.

Chapter 10: Dazzled but not blind

That China is growing is logical: the abnormality is that the largest country in the world is so poor. Its GDP per capita, even today, is the same as Honduras.Source: Financial Times, 22/11/2010

The worlds biggest economiesThe worlds biggest economies in 2010GDP in 2010 (trillion $)The biggest economies in 2050 accorrding to Goldman Sachs1United States14,624China2China5,745United States3Japan5.390India4Germany3,305Brazil5France2,555Russia6United Kingdom2,258Indonesia7Italy2,036Mexico8Brazil2,023United Kingdom9Canada1,563Turkey10Russia1,476Japan11India1.430France12Spain1,374GermanySource: IMF World Economic Outlook 2010

Europes decline may mirror Japans

Life expectancy in Japan is 82.2 years, four years higher than in the United States; unemployment is 5% and its levels of social protection and equality are one of the highest in the world.Source: World Bank 2010

Europe was designed towards the inside: not outside. It is an introverted power.

LinkThe keyboard QWERTY was designed to slow down writing so that the keys did not get jammed. That is why the most used buttons on a computer are concentrated around the weaker fingers in the left hand.

To get Europe to have a foreign policy would require a large amount of constitutional engineering but the ideal is the enemy of what is good.

For more information see the following article: Chubon keyboardIf we re-designed our keyboards, we would place the keys used most often in the center where out strong fingers lie. However, the cost of changing to a better system is higher than continuing to work with a suboptimal system. One way or another, Europes Constitution tired to resolve the EUs problems and to change the institutional design. However, the institutional engineering has demonstrated its limits.

The panda developed a sixth thumb and Europe should invent its foreign policy. The function creates the organ.

For more information see this articulo.The panda developed a false thumb so that it could glide bamboo sticks between its claws. Europe does not need a typical foreign policy like the rest of the superpowers, just one that appears so and one that could be effective in completing its objectives.