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Mar
vell
Con
fiden
tial ©
2007
The
Futu
re o
f Sem
icon
duct
or In
dust
ry fr
om
“Fab
less
”Pe
rspe
ctiv
e
Roa
wen
Che
n, P
h.D
.
GM
and
VP
of C
onne
ctiv
ity B
usin
ess
Uni
t&
VP
of M
anuf
actu
ring
Ope
ratio
ns
Mar
vell
Sem
icon
duct
or
UC
Ber
kele
y S
olid
-Sta
te S
emin
ar
Feb.
1st, 2
008
2M
arve
ll C
onfid
entia
l ©20
07
Out
line
Intro
duct
ion
Fabl
ess
Bus
ines
s M
odel
Ado
ptio
n
Foun
dry
Tech
nolo
gy a
nd In
dust
ry T
rend
Obs
erva
tion
of th
eFu
ture
of S
emic
ondu
ctor
indu
stry
3M
arve
ll C
onfid
entia
l ©20
07
Sem
icon
duct
or B
usin
ess
Mod
els
Man
ufac
turin
gFo
undr
ypa
rtne
rs
Des
ign/
IP
Mar
ketin
g/Sa
les
Fabl
ess
Mar
vell,
Nvi
dia
Man
ufac
turin
g
Des
ign/
IP
Mar
ketin
g/Sa
les
IDM
Inte
l, Sa
msu
ng
Inte
rnal
M
anuf
Des
ign/
IP Man
ufac
turin
gFo
undr
ypa
rtne
rs
Mar
ketin
g/Sa
les
Fab-
Lite
TI, I
nfin
eon
Sem
icon
duct
or m
anuf
actu
ring
mod
els
are
mig
ratin
g to
ass
et-li
ght
stra
tegy
4M
arve
ll C
onfid
entia
l ©20
07
Soar
ing
Cos
t of C
hip
Mak
ing
$0.2
$0.3
$0.4
$0.7
$1.3
$1.8
$3.0
$3.6
$4.3
$5.0
$0.0
$1.0
$2.0
$3.0
$4.0
$5.0
$6.0
1983
1987
1990
1994
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Year
FabCost ($B)D
ata
sour
ce:
UM
C
The
cost
of b
eing
IDM
is in
crea
sing
with
eac
h ne
w te
ch n
ode
adva
ncem
ent,
resu
lting
in a
out
sour
cing
phe
nom
enon
5M
arve
ll C
onfid
entia
l ©20
07
Fab
is s
impl
y un
affo
rdab
le b
y ID
M m
odel
2007
Top
20
Sem
icon
duct
or C
ompa
nies
by
Reve
nue
0510152025303540
Intel
Samsung
Toshiba
TI
STMicro
Hynix
Renesas
Sony
NXP
Infineon
AMD
Qualcomm
NEC
Freescale
Micron
Qimonda
Matsushita
Elpida
Broadcom
Sharp
($B)
Dat
a so
urce
: G
oldm
an S
achs
$7B
reve
nue
requ
ired
to s
uppo
rt 30
0mm
Fab
6M
arve
ll C
onfid
entia
l ©20
07
Why
Fab
less
Bus
ines
s M
odel
Attr
activ
e?
Demand
Y200
0
Dem
and
Cyc
les
Y201
0
Util
izat
ion
wor
sens
du
ring
the
dow
n tim
e,
and…
Fab-
Lite
keep
s in
tern
al c
apac
ity
100%
load
ed,
whi
le…
IDM
cap
acity
bu
ilt fo
llow
s th
e de
man
d bu
t…H
ow to
dis
pose
ex
cess
cap
aciti
esw
hen
tech
nolo
gy
mov
es o
n ?
In H
ouse
Cap
acity
Sho
rtage
of
supp
ly d
urin
g bo
om ti
me!
Exce
ss C
apic
ities
Fab-
Lite
com
pani
es
com
plem
ent i
nter
nal c
apac
ity
cons
train
ts w
ith fo
undr
ies,
but…
Flex
ible
Fab
less
Mod
el w
ill P
reva
il !!!
Flex
ible
Fab
less
Mod
el w
ill P
reva
il !!!
7M
arve
ll C
onfid
entia
l ©20
07
Fabl
ess
Sem
icon
duct
or G
row
th
050100
150
200
250
300
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Overall Semiconductor Sales ($B)
0102030405060
Fabless Sales ($B)
over
all s
emic
ondu
ctor
fabl
ess TS
MC
foun
ded
Mar
vell
foun
ded
Fabl
ess
~20%
of
ove
rall
Sem
i
Dat
a so
urce
: EE
Tim
es
8M
arve
ll C
onfid
entia
l ©20
07
Rea
l Men
Sta
rted
to R
ent F
abs
Q1
'07
Ran
kQ
2 '0
7 R
ank
Com
pany
Nam
eQ
1-07
R
venu
e($M
)Q
2-07
R
venu
e($M
)%
of T
otal
11
Inte
l7,
868
7,72
812
.25%
22
Sam
sung
Ele
ctro
nics
4,83
54,
716
7.48
%4
3Te
xas
Inst
rum
ents
2,90
03,
030
4.80
%3
4To
shib
a3,
109
2,51
03.
98%
65
STM
icro
elec
troni
cs2,
276
2,41
83.
83%
86
Ren
esas
Tec
hnol
ogy
1,94
81,
985
3.15
%5
7H
ynix
2,53
91,
963
3.11
%9
8N
XP1,
427
1,47
22.
33%
149
Qua
lcom
m1,
259
1,36
72.
17%
1310
Infin
eon
Tech
nolo
gies
1,28
21,
363
2.16
%Al
l Oth
ers
35,9
7534
,519
54.7
3%To
tal S
emic
ondu
ctor
65,4
1863
,071
100%
Inte
l
Mem
ory
Fab-
lite
Fabl
ess
Dat
a so
urce
: FS
A
Fabl
ess
com
pany
, for
the
first
tim
e, e
nter
sS
emic
ondu
ctor
Top
-10
(Q2
2007
)
9M
arve
ll C
onfid
entia
l ©20
07
Fabl
ess
Com
pani
es: N
o lo
nger
sm
all p
laye
rs
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1000
0
Qualcomm
SanDisk
Nvidia
Broadcom
Marvell
Media Tek
LSI
Xilinx
Avago
Altera
Cirrus Logic
ATI
Sun Micro
Compaq
Level One
ESS
S3
Fab
less
-ers
Revenue($M)
1998
Rev
enue
2007
Rev
enue
Dat
a so
urce
: FS
A
In 1
998,
top
3 fa
bles
sco
mpa
nies
(Alte
ra, Q
ualc
omm
and
Xilin
x)
each
had
~$5
00M
ann
ual r
even
ue; T
oday
in 2
008,
mor
e th
an 1
0 fa
bles
sco
mpa
nies
hav
e ea
ch s
urpa
ssed
$1B
in a
nnua
l rev
enue
10M
arve
ll C
onfid
entia
l ©20
07
Fabl
ess
reve
nue
is m
erel
y ~2
0% o
f Wor
ldw
ide
IC$,
Pot
entia
l G
row
th is
Hug
e
Mem
ory
17.3
%
IDM
Str
ongh
old
IDM
dom
inat
ed
Wire
d C
omm
unic
atio
ns
6.0%
Gra
pc/F
PGA
3.0%
uP/u
CP
16.0
%
Aut
omot
ive
6.4%
Indu
stria
l El
ectr
onic
s 8.
6%
Wire
less
C
omm
unic
atio
ns
19.1
%
Con
sum
er
Elec
tron
ics
19.5
%St
orag
e/Pr
inte
r4.
3%
Fabl
ess
Stro
ngho
ld20
07$2
60 B
illio
n20
0720
07$2
60 B
illio
n$2
60 B
illio
n
Dat
a so
urce
: iS
uppl
i
Fabl
ess
com
pany
gro
ws
from
trad
ition
al tr
ench
, it i
s in
evita
ble
to
inva
de in
to ID
M p
ie. W
irele
ss a
nd C
onsu
mer
ele
ctro
nics
are
two
likel
y ar
eas
11M
arve
ll C
onfid
entia
l ©20
07
Proc
ess
Tech
nolo
gy is
no
long
er D
iffer
entia
tor …
.
Foun
dry
is w
ell i
n pa
ce w
ith
indu
stry
tech
nolo
gy ro
adm
apFo
undr
y is
wel
l in
pace
with
in
dust
ry te
chno
logy
road
map
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7 19
9419
9619
9820
0020
0220
0420
06Ye
ar
Linewidth (um)
ITR
S R
oadm
apFo
undr
y
Dat
a so
urce
: Gar
tner
SiTe
chno
logy
itse
lf no
lo
nger
a k
ey
diffe
rent
iato
r for
IDM
’s
Tech
nolo
gy is
mor
e st
anda
rdiz
ed
Foun
dry
tech
nolo
gy is
th
e de
-fact
or p
roce
ss
choi
ce to
day
for m
ost o
f se
mic
ondu
ctor
co
mpa
nies
Foun
dry
proc
ess
tech
nolo
gy is
the
lead
ing-
edge
.
SiTe
chno
logy
itse
lf no
lo
nger
a k
ey
diffe
rent
iato
r for
IDM
’s
Tech
nolo
gy is
mor
e st
anda
rdiz
ed
Foun
dry
tech
nolo
gy is
th
e de
-fact
or p
roce
ss
choi
ce to
day
for m
ost o
f se
mic
ondu
ctor
co
mpa
nies
Foun
dry
proc
ess
tech
nolo
gy is
the
lead
ing-
edge
.
12M
arve
ll C
onfid
entia
l ©20
07
Foun
dry
Tech
nolo
gy in
Par
with
Indu
stry
Lea
der
TSM
C a
nd In
tel f
eatu
red
2007
IE
DM
with
2 m
ost s
igni
fican
t pa
pers
TSM
CTr
aditi
onal
SiO
2 G
ate
Oxi
de w
/ N
itrid
atio
nIm
mer
sion
Lith
o (1
93nm
w/ 1
.35
Max
NA
)U
ltra
Low
-K (K
=2.5
5)
Inte
lH
igh-
K M
etal
Gat
e (d
ual W
F ga
te
met
al)
Dry
Lith
o (1
93nm
w/ 0
.92
NA
)
Foun
dry
proc
ess
choi
ce is
m
ore
cost
-effe
ctiv
e an
d di
vers
ified
13M
arve
ll C
onfid
entia
l ©20
07
32nm
and
bey
ond?
Waf
er P
rice
(8”
equi
vale
nt)
Tech
nolo
gy N
ode
0.25
µm0.
18µm
0.13
µm90
nm65
nm45
nm
1.25
-1.
35x
each
new
nod
e
Waf
er C
ost
(8”
equi
vale
nt)
Tech
nolo
gy N
ode
0.25
µm0.
18µm
0.13
µm90
nm65
nm45
nm
Cu/
Low
-k
Hig
h-k
Met
al G
ate
imm
ersi
onA
SP o
f Con
sum
er IC
’s
Tech
nolo
gy N
ode
0.25
µm0.
18µm
0.13
µm90
nm65
nm45
nm
Con
sum
ers/
B2B
exp
ect 2
x re
duct
ion
in c
ost p
er fu
nctio
n ea
ch n
ode
Perf
orm
ance
/Po
wer
Tech
nolo
gy N
ode
0.25
µm0.
18µm
0.13
µm90
nm65
nm45
nm
Velo
city
sat
urat
ion,
Mob
ility
deg
rada
tion,
Vd
dsc
alab
ility
, Var
iatio
ns; P
hysi
cs
With
all
thes
e bo
unda
ry c
ondi
tions
, RO
I bey
ond
32nm
m
ay b
e qu
estio
nabl
e
14M
arve
ll C
onfid
entia
l ©20
07
Futu
re T
rend
s of
Sem
icon
duct
or In
dust
ry
Thre
e ty
pes
of S
emic
ondu
ctor
pla
yers
in th
e fu
ture
Inte
lM
emor
yFa
bles
s/Fo
undr
yTS
MC
dom
inan
ce, s
tand
ardi
zatio
n of
CM
OS
proc
ess
offe
rs“D
evic
e sc
alin
g”di
min
ishi
ng a
nd “
dim
ensi
on s
calin
g”sl
ow if
not
sto
pC
onso
lidat
ion
is in
evita
ble,
big
bec
omes
big
ger,
econ
omic
sca
les
win
Inno
vatio
n an
d co
llabo
ratio
n ar
e ou
r hop
es fo
r fut
ure
succ
ess
ofIC
–in
nova
tions
nev
er d
ie. S
ome
pote
ntia
l top
ics
are
Non
-CM
OS
tech
nolo
gies
at m
atur
e pr
oces
s no
de. E
.g.,
Ultr
a-H
V po
wer
de
vice
(ene
rgy
effic
ient
), M
EMS…
.etc
.H
ow to
redu
ce h
igh
mas
k co
st (c
ritic
al fo
r inn
ovat
ive
desi
gns
tofly
)B
reak
thro
ugh
in n
ano-
devi
ces
com
patib
le w
ith c
urre
nt C
MO
S Si
infr
astr
uctu
reTo
p re
sear
ch in
mec
hani
cal/t
herm
al a
spec
ts o
f pac
kagi
ngD
esig
n fo
r Man
ufac
turin
g (D
FM) a
mus
t for
45n
m a
nd b
eyon
d
15M
arve
ll C
onfid
entia
l ©20
07
Sum
mar
y
Fab
cost
s sh
arpl
y in
crea
se d
urin
g th
e la
st d
ecad
e, te
chno
logy
br
ings
onl
y in
crem
enta
l ben
efit
whi
ch m
ay n
ot ju
stify
the
high
fin
anci
al ri
sk o
f ow
ning
fab.
Pro
cess
Tec
hnol
ogy
beco
mes
st
anda
rdiz
ed.
Ana
lysi
s of
the
fabl
ess/
foun
dry
busi
ness
mod
el il
lust
rate
s th
at it
is
the
pref
erre
d m
odel
for c
ompa
nies
to e
xcel
in th
e se
mic
ondu
ctor
in
dust
ry, w
ith th
e hi
ghes
t fle
xibi
lity
to a
ddre
ss d
ynam
ic m
arke
ts
IDM
’sar
e tr
ansi
tioni
ng in
to fa
blite
or fa
bles
sso
mew
here
in b
etw
een
65nm
and
32n
m
As
fabl
ess
beco
mes
mai
nstr
eam
, par
adig
m s
hift
dem
ands
in
nova
tion
and
colla
bora
tion
amon
g su
pply
-cha
ins,
to fu
rthe
r low
er
the
cost
of I
C’s
and
acc
eler
ate
the
grow
th o
f sem
icon
duct
or
indu
stry
16M
arve
ll C
onfid
entia
l ©20
07
Para
digm
Shi
ft
““ Onl
y R
eal M
en h
ave
Onl
y R
eal M
en h
ave
Fabs
Fabs
””Je
rry
Sand
ers
III, C
EO o
f AM
D, c
irca.
199
1Je
rry
Sand
ers
III, C
EO o
f AM
D, c
irca.
199
1
““ Onl
y R
eal M
en G
o O
nly
Rea
l Men
Go
Fabl
ess
Fabl
ess ””
Mar
vell
Con
fiden
tial ©
2007
Than
k Yo
u