Capabilities Portfolios - 10 Trends

The Future of Armed ForceTowards a Defense and Security ecosystem?

Stephan De SpiegeleireHCSS Principal ScientistRoyal Netherlands Airforce Airpower Symposium, April 27, 2016, Gilze-Rijen Air Base

I want to break you out of the schackles of presentism and recentismUnderestimating the pace of changeWe live day-to-day and experience change as being slow; but we underestimate actual exponential change2040 (Strategische Vorausschau)+ June 4, 1991Territorial defense was name of the game (massive territorial armies, corps UoA, very heavy, etc.)Wargaming through MASSIVE (millions lines of code) campaign models - Lanchesterian equation (RAND JWARS, JICM)Internet barely existed (let alone Google, Facebook, Youtube, etc.) no mobile phones, cyber did not exist; most of you would not be able to use computers from those days, etc. Defence planning still about the Soviet Union (still there - only December 1991) - NO Balkans, NO Somalia, NO 9/11, NO cyberOut of area still ENTIRELY taboo within NATOThere WAS no European Union, no CSDP, no euro (only in 2002 - TEN years later - do we get the euro)Toekomst van krijgsmacht niet de krijgsmacht. Ook wat we nu reserve noemen (vangnet-idee) was niet altijd zo; en wordt misschien wel weer anders => hoop om jullie vanavond iets anders te laten kijken naar het gegeven krijgsmacht1

?DefenseEcosystem

Zijn dit niet twee totaal tegenstrijdige noties?2

When You Google defense military

doortastendkrachtdadigaggressiefoperatinpro-actiefoverweldigenTestosterone

Visual audio substantive associationsIndustrieel-kinetische associatie veel staal, (industrieel) kinetische vuurkracht, uniformen, enzStevige muziek (als je van klassieke muziek houdt bombastische Wagner; bij mensen van mijn leeftijd stevigere Rock; bij veel teenagers ruigere rap)Adjectieven: alpha-male, carnivoor, doortastend, krachtdadig, aggressief 3

When You Google Ecosystem

behoedzaamkringloopduurzaamholistischinspanningenestrogeenevenwichtlerendpreventief

groene associatie ook in kleurZachtere muziek Vivaldi; mijn generatie - Enya of gevoeligere kleinkunst; vandaag meer melodieuze R&BAdjectieven: precautionary principle4

NLD CHOD on Ecosystems

[A]s the custodians of our societies security, we also have to explore other parts of this ecosystem. Areas that are less formalized and less structured. Areas, where aligned actions emerge more ad-hoc, and bottom-up. Areas, where co-operation is extremely dynamic and flexible. Areas, not described in signed agreements but more driven by common interests and some level of mutual trust, operating through informal networks. Take Google or Apple for example with their mobile app stores. They provide a free and open platform, that all sorts of ecosystem partners can hitch a ride on. Both planned and unplanned', while in the meantime allowing Google and Apple to benefit from the ideas, creativity, capabilities and actions of others. I wonder whether this is something our defense organizations might learn from

Term custodian of a defense and security ecosystem wordt steeds meer gebruikt CDS Middendorp opende het debat hierover op de FFC5

The Soldier of the Future

Defence and Armed Force Back to the Roots

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Defendmid-13c., from O.Fr.defendre(12c.) "defend, resist," and directly from L.defendere"ward off, protect, guard, allege in defence," fromde-"from, away" (seede-) +-fendere"to strike, push," from PIE base*gwhen-"to strike, kill, wound"

Arm "weapon," c.1300, from O.Fr.armes(pl.), 11c., from L.arma"weapons," lit. "tools, implements (of war)," PIE base*ar-"fit, join." The notion seems to be "that which is fitted together."

Security "without care, dreading no evil," c. 1530s, from Latin*se cura: se "free from" + cura "care - tranquil; free from danger

Ask the question7

Armed Force as a Reflection of the AgeIndustrial society

Agrarian society

AgeNomadic(Hunter/gatherer)

Bare HandsHumanClan

ColdMechanicalSettlement

HotThermalNation-State

Post-industrial society:Information and knowledge age?Age

ArmsInformation and knowledge?EnergyInformation and knowledge?UnitEcosystem?

ArmsEnergyUnit

Hominoid History Start of AgricultureSince the Last Ice AgePre-Industrial

Industrial

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Industrial age: The Age of the Line

The Industrial Paradigm (Taylorism)

Breaking up the whole in parts10

Stovepipes galoreWithin our MoDsServicesCivil-MilitaryPolicy/strategy ops caps fin - HRInter-agencyPublic-private

CompaniesAcademic disciplinesTime stovepipesIdeology

The end of the line; The dawn of the network/ecosystem

Complicated vs. complex

How We Think About Strategy Now

How Operations Devoured Strategy

Equally bloody hostile takeover15

Before the industrial ageSovereign incarnated strategy and tactics

Before the industrial ageSovereign incarnated strategy and tacticsHe made the strategic decisions

Before the industrial ageSovereign incarnated strategy and tacticsHe made the strategic decisionsAnd then led the troops into combat

How Operations Devoured Strategy

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How Operations Devoured StrategyIndustrial age the age of the lineQuantum leap in physical/social technologies; larger political units (nations), larger scope of combatRole/Task Specialization e.g. between political leader (direction and control) and military leaderOperational art emerges and devours strategyPost-industrial age? the age of the network/ecosystem?Compression of echelons?A new all-encompassing echelon?Post-echelon?

Before the industrial ageSovereign incarnated strategy and tacticsHe made the strategic decisionsAnd then led the troops into combat

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What Happened in the Industrial Age?PoliticsStrategyOperationalTactical

TheMilitary

Pre-Industrial

The Sovereign

IndustrialPost-Industrial?

Dont we already do this? The comprehensive approachFirst in-theater (3D)Then in capitals (typically through money)Then in capitals (on missions and ops)Ecosystem?

Then broader (terrorism and HS)

Ecosystem

Anecosystemis a community of living organisms in conjunction with the nonliving components of their environment (things like air, water and mineral soil), interacting as a system.

The model

Examples

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InterBrand: Best Global Brands

These Grew Fastest

These are platform ecosystems

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The power of ecosystem platformsIn 2015, Uber, the worlds largest taxi company owns no vehicles, Facebook the worlds most popular media owner creates no content, Alibaba the most valuable retailer has no inventory, and Airbnb the worlds largest hotelier owns no real estate.Tom Goodwin, Sr. VP of Strategy Havas Media

Defense As an Ecosystem (Platform)?The defense and security ecosystem exists. Its evolving exponentially. What is the future of Armed Force?Do we want to remain (mostly industrial-kinetic) operators (current me+)Do we want to become industrial AND post-industrial operators ( future me I am the primary operator)Do we want to become the custodians of a broader defense and security ecosystem (future we catalyst, nudger, strange attractor, etc.)catalysts/owners of a platform that brings this ecosystem together Who (now!) does/can do future capability planning for the entire DSE?Still (again) a special role for Europe (/the Netherlands)?

Dont be a star, be an ecosystem platform