the future of campus recreation - brailsford & dunlavey€¦ · q & a / discussion....

LOOKING TO THE FUTURE OF CAMPUS RECREATION

NIRSA 2007 Annual ConferenceApril 20th

Paul BrailsfordBrailsford & Dunlavey

(202) [email protected]

BRAILSFORD & DUNLAVEY

Presentation Outline

Introduction

A Quick Overview of Historical Trends

Projecting Future Trends Based on Opportunities & Challenges

Q & A / Discussion


Introduction


Introduction

My Experiences

My Passions

My Goals for This Presentation

An Unexpected Assignment

The NIRSA Community

Over 20 Years Later


My Experiences

My Passions


Introduction

The Reluctant Student

Managing Institutional Ambition Advancing the State of the Industry


Introduction

Share Some Facts & Ideas

Stimulate Thought & Discussion

Benefit From Your Challenges

My Experiences

My Passions



Overview of Historical Trends

Post WWI Era (the 1920’s & 30’s)

Post WWII Era (the 1950’s)

The Physical Education Era (the 1970’s)

The Contemporary Era (1985 to Present)

Recreation Facility Evolution


Recreation Trends >>> Cultural Shifts

P.E.& Athletics Focus

Utilitarian Function

Limited Audience

Shared Use Facilities

Directed Programs

Free Employee Use

Recreation / Social Focus

Dynamic Social Space

Maximized Appeal

Special Purpose Buildings

Market Driven Services

Fee Based Memberships

Male Dominated Gender Balanced

Active Adults are Young All Ages Groups Are Active

Physical Education Era Contemporary Era



Recreation Trends >>> Higher Ed. Responses

Demand For Recreation Value For Substantial Fees

Substantial Spec RevenueValue Added Services

Title IX Mature Culture Female Intramurals & Drop-in Sports

Greater Business Focus More Skilled / Larger Staffs => Budgets

Capitalized Revenue Streams Allow Large Projects to be Feasible Within Tolerable Risk Parameters



Projecting Future Trends

When Student Supply Is Up, Schools Build to Accommodate Growth

When Student Supply Is Down, Schools Build to be More Competitive

When Student Supply is Stable, Schools Build to Support their Mission

When Do Colleges & Universities Build?



Demographics

Cultural Shifts

Educational Philosophies

Economic realities

Public Policy

What Forces Will Impact Us?


Projecting Future TrendsDemographics

Post WWI Era (the 1920’s & 30’s)

Post WWII Era (the 1950’s)

The Physical Education Era (the 1970’s)

The Contemporary Era (1985 to Present)

% of Grads

M/FDist.

5% 60/40

14% 68/32

36% 59/41

43% 48/52

55% 42/58



The “Baby Boom Echo” Will be over in 2010!



The “Baby Boom Echo” Will be over in 2010!Many Factors Affect an Institution’s Enrollment & Composition

State & regional attendance ratesPersistence ratesPre-disposition toward living on-campusLocal real estate marketsQuality of the campus environmentFinancial aid programs & pricing strategiesAcademic philosophies Public Policy


Projecting Future TrendsDemographics – The Value of Education

Ages 35 - 45



Number of Health Club Memberships by Age

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

Under 18 18-34 35-54 55+

Age Group

Tota

l Num

ber o

f Mem

bers

hips

1987

2004



18 – 24 Years Old

25 – 34 Years Old

35 – 44 Years Old

45 – 54 Years Old

55 – 64 Years Old

65 + Years Old

Age15.9%

21.7%

15.5%

16.2%

16.6%

15.6%

Males16.3%

16.6%

17.5%

20.4%

17.8%

15.6%

FemalesHealth club Membership by Age & Gender

2004



Less than $25,000

$25,000 to $49,999

$50,000 to $74,999

$75,000 to $99,999

$100,000 & over

Income7.5%

11.7%

16.5%

20.8%

26.2%

Membership RateHealth club Membership by Income

2004



H.S. or Less

Some College

College

Advanced Degree

Level Attained8.5%

17.2%

23.6%

28.8%

Membership RateHealth club Membership by Education

2004



With Respect to Fitness, We are a Bifurcated Society

People are Less Tolerant of Compromised Conditions

Students are Absorbed and Insulated by Technology

Family Incomes of College Students are Increasing Faster than the National Average

Cultural Shifts



Harvard Task Force on General EducationKey finding: One week after a traditional lecture, the average student retains only 20% of the information presented.

Students must become more involved with the learning process.

Harvard Announces “Activity-Based Learning Initiative”Initiative proposed start with 2008 freshman class

Harvard has a history of setting trends for educational philosophy

Goal: “Help students see how what they learn in class informs what they do outside of class and vice versa”




Recreation OpportunityStudent Involvement through employment

• Quantity of jobs compares favorably with large academic departments

• Range of jobs (fitness assessment, marketing, finance & accounting, recreation management, event planning, logistics, etc.)

Student Involvement through traditional programming

Student Involvement through wellness programming

Projected Institutional ResponseIncreased ambition

Broadened range of funding mechanisms & Approaches




Cost of Construction

Economic Realities

1996 - $6,252,000

2006 - $15,252,000



Institutional Debt

Economic Realities

Higher Ed is Borrowing at Historic Rates

Debt Capacity and Credit Quality are Being Eroded

Protecting the Balance Sheet is Increasing in Importance for More Schools

Off-balance sheet Approaches will be Sought for Anything with a Cash Flow



Student Debt

Economic Realities

More Student are Borrowing• Almost 65% of students at 4 year colleges had loans in 2005

• In 1993 Less Than Half Had Loans

Student are Borrowing More• Over the past decade, the average debt load for graduating

seniors has more than doubled from $9,250 t0 $19,200

• Over the past five years, tuition and fees have increased 57%

• Averages debt varies widely by state and institution type



Student Debt

Economic Realities

Only 10% of U.S. Born Doctoral Students Had Any Student Debt as an Undergraduate!



Growing Demand for a College Education has Supported the New Cost Structure

Many Students Get Priced Out of the MarketApproximately, 400,000 college eligible High School Graduates cannot afford to attend a 4 year college

Of those, 173,000 do not attend any college at all

The Average Household Income of a College Student is 160% of the National Average!

Economic Realities



Direct Student SupportGrant FundingLoan ProgramsService Programs

Institutional Level SupportFederal Construction FinanceIssue Specific Funding

• Green Initiatives• Technology Initiatives• Other Initiatives

Public Policy



P.E. & Athletics Focus

Utilitarian Function

Limited Audience

Shared Use Facilities

Directed Programs

Free Employee Use



Maximized Appeal




Male Dominated Gender Balanced

Active Adults are Young All Ages Groups Are Active

Physical Education Era Contemporary Era




Experiential Learning Focus

The Living Lab

Managed Participation

Specialized Components

Multifaceted Operations

Workforce Wellness Focus

Female Dominated

Increased Activity Levels

The Next Stage




Maximized Appeal




Gender Balanced

All Ages Groups Are Active

Contemporary Era


Recreation Trends >>> Higher Ed. Responses

Demand For Recreation Value For Substantial Fees

Substantial Spec RevenueValue Added Services

Title IX Mature Culture Female Intramurals & Drop-in Sports

Greater Business Focus More Skilled / Larger Staffs => Budgets

Capitalized Revenue Streams Allow Large Projects to be Feasible Within Tolerable Risk Parameters



LOOKING TO THE FUTURE OF CAMPUS RECREATION

NIRSA 2007 Annual ConferenceApril 20th

Paul BrailsfordBrailsford & Dunlavey

(202) [email protected]

the future of campus recreation - brailsford & dunlavey€¦ · q & a / discussion....

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