the future of food - scenarios and the effects on natural resource use in agriculture
DESCRIPTION
One of the most important sustainability questions we face today relates to food. Everyone needs it, but we still face undernutrition in large parts of the world, while in other regions overnutrition is a growing problem. Can we feed our growing world population? Do we have the natural resources to supply the global population with their demand in 2050? My research shows that we cannot feed the global population a Western diet; a diet high in meat and of which a lot is wasted. Would you change your diet? Ingrid OdegardTRANSCRIPT
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
The Future of Food
Scenarios and the Effects on Natural Resource Use in Agriculture
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions DiscussionIntroduction
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Scope
• What are the global and regional consequences, with respect to natural resource use in agriculture, for four food scenarios evaluated for the year 2050?
Introduction
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Scope
• What are the global and regional consequences, withrespect to resource use in agriculture, for four foodscenarios evaluated for the year 2050?
OECD90
REF
ASIA
ALM
Introduction
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Scope
• Commodity groups
– Cereals
– Fruit
– Roots and tubers
– Pulses
– Oil crops
– Sugar crops
– Vegetables 93% of global kcal
– Meat
• Beef
• Pork
• Poultry
– Eggs
– Milk
Includes feed
Introduction
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Scenario Methodology
• What if…?
• Not The Truth or The Future
• Variety
• ConsistencyA2
B1 B2
A1
RegionalizationGlobalization
Environment
Economy
Methodology
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
• Population
• Economic Development
• Policy
• Technological Development
• Diet
Driving Forces
Methodology
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Meat Consumption & Economic Development
2200 US$ 9700 US$
17 kg
77 kg
Keyzer, 2005
Methodology
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Food System Model
Virtual Resource Content
Methodology
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Virtual Resource Content
• Input requirements
– Land: ton/ha (yield)
– Water: m3/ton
– Fertilizer: kg/ton (N, P2O5, K2O)
• Specified for:
– Commodity groups
– Regions
Methodology
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Scenario Study
2900 kcal 2900 kcal
2800 kcal 2800 kcal
economy
environment
regionalizationglobalization
Methodology
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
What if..
• …there is a global shift to a Western diet?
• …regions have to be self-sufficient?
• …we all become vegetarian?
• …we shift to low-input management?
Methodology
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Apparent Consumption and Intake
Results
2005 intake
2005 apparent consumption
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Production (ton/year)
Results
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Land Use (ha/year)
Results
VS+S+MS
VS+S
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Land Use
Results
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Water Use3
Moderate water stress
Critical water stress
Results
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Water Use in A2 – Full World
OECD90 REF ASIA ALM
3
Results
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Fertilizer Use – N
Years of Potassium A1: 2 A2: 66B1: 100 B2: 135Years of PhosporousA1: 55 A2: 121B1: 254 B2: 211
Results
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Scenario Conclusions
• A1 – Affluent World
LAND WATER FERTILIZER
• A2 – Full World
LAND WATER FERTILIZER
• B1 – Vegetarian World
LAND WATER FERTILIZER
• B2 – Low-Input World
LAND WATER FERTILIZER
Conclusions
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Conclusions
• Strong negative correlation between land and fertilizer use
• Water use problematic
• Not enough resources to feed the global population a Western diet
Conclusions
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Recommendations
• Virtual Fertilizer Content & Organic Agriculture
• Trade & Water Use
• Animal product consumption & culture and religion
Conclusions
I.Y.R. Odegard, MSc, 2011, [email protected]
Introduction Methodology Results Conclusions Discussion
Discussion
Would you change your diet?
Discussion