The future of golf club

management

David Wood @dw2

Principal, Delta Wisdom Chair, London Futurists londonfuturists.com deltawisdom.com

Breakout

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Long-lived organisations work on three timescales in parallel

1-12 Months

Fulfilling Commitments

1-3 Years

Search for Growth

Incremental new business Operational excellence Creating a new future

3-10+ Years

Anticipating Disruption

Today’s skills Tomorrow’s skills

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Disruption via convergence

Are impacted & enhanced

Are impacted & superseded

?

See the steamrollers coming Be agile and strong enough to turn the steamrollers to your advantage

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Group discussion 1

Highlight other examples of companies that have failed to spot (or handle) incoming “steamrollers”

Also consider examples of companies that turned incoming steamrollers to their advantage

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Kindle books vs. physical books

www.theverge.com/2012/9/6/3298533/amazon-kindle-event-september-6th-video-watch

E-books leapfrog physical books at Amazon

in less than 3 years

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

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Progress by selective combination

Smart combination of multiple tech improvements • Cheap digital storage • Low energy screens, pleasant to look at • High-speed “Whisper net” wireless distribution • Customisable (Linux/Android) software platform • Huge catalog of books available to purchase

+ Innovative business model

Improvements in computers: Performance

Applicability (digitisation)

+ Focus on addressing a small number of user requirements

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What you’ll prioritise, and what you’ll not prioritise

Strengths

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

Sources of upside

Sources of downside

Internal (company)

External (environment)

Forthcoming Opportunities

Forthcoming Threats

Future (scenarios)

Strategy = choice

Strategy = preparation SWOT

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Group discussion 2

What are the “opportunities” and “threats” that would feature in a SWOT for your company?

Consider both “environment” and “future” as the sources of the opportunities and threats

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Physical + Virtual

Mobile -> Wearable -> -> Insideable ->…

Cyborgs

3 AI + Human Intelligence

Human + Machine Software + Biology

Synthetic biology

Genetic engineering

4

2 1

4 great convergences

VR -> AR (Augmented Reality)

MOOCs, cryptocurrency…

@dw2 Page 10 http://intelligenceexplosion.com/en/2011/superstition-in-retreat/

“Only humans can play master chess”

“Only a human musician can compose in the style of Bach”

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Convergence: AI & human intelligence

http://www.csmonitor.com/Innovation/Tech/2010/0617/How-a-computer-program-became-classical-music-s-hot-new-composer

http://www.allmusic.com/album/bach-by-design-computer-composed-music-mw0001354257/credits

@dw2 Page 12 http://intelligenceexplosion.com/en/2011/superstition-in-retreat/

“Only humans can drive cars”

@dw2 Page 13 http://www.amazon.com/The-New-Division-Labor-Computers/dp/0691119724

“The new division of labor”

Computerisation should have little effect on the percentage of the work force engaged in these tasks…

Non-routine manual tasks: physical tasks that cannot be well-described as following a set of If-Then-Else rules, because they require optical recognition and

fine motion control that have proven extremely difficult for computers to carry out…

Examples include driving a truck…

Frank Levy and Richard J. Murnane, 2004

@dw2 Page 14 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DARPA_Grand_Challenge

Completed <5% of the course

Sandstorm: Winner of 2004 DARPA Grand Challenge

150 miles in the Mojave

Desert region of the US

2005 Challenge:

Five vehicles completed whole

course

@dw2 Page 15 http://telematicswire.net/self-drving-cars-after-google-its-baidu-carmakers-and-technology-

companies-competing-together/

Taxi drivers

Truck drivers

Insurance salespeople

@dw2 Page 16 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7nLQpWiy1o

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“A group of young people playing Frisbee”

https://medium.com/backchannel/google-search-will-be-your-next-brain-5207c26e4523

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“A person riding a motorcycle on a dirt road”

https://medium.com/backchannel/google-search-will-be-your-next-brain-5207c26e4523

@dw2 Page 19 https://medium.com/backchannel/google-search-will-be-your-next-brain-5207c26e4523

“A herd of elephants walking across a dry grass field”

@dw2 Page 20 http://googleresearch.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/a-picture-is-worth-thousand-coherent.html

“A dog is jumping to catch a Frisbee”

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Image-Net database: 14M+ images

http://image-net.org/

• 1000 classes of object • Large Scale Visual Recognition Challenge • Held every year since 2010…

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Large Scale Visual Recognition Challenge

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/08/18/computer-eyesight-gets-a-lot-more-accurate/

• Classifications by the winning software in 2014 had only 6.6% errors

• Compares to 11.7% errors in 2013 • Four-fold improvement since 2010 • Compares to 5.1% errors by humans • Feb 2015: Team from Microsoft Beijing • Led by Jian Sun • 4.94% error rate

http://blogs.technet.com/b/inside_microsoft_research/archive/2015/02/10/microsoft-researchers-algorithm-sets-imagenet-

challenge-milestone.aspx

Computer vision is the key to robots being able to do lots more “human” tasks

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The three ages of machines 1. Machines replaced human muscular effort

– They produced motion

– They manipulated energy

2. Then machines replaced human calculation effort – They produced numerical results

– They manipulated information (using algorithms)

3. Machines are now replacing human creative effort – They produce algorithms (using information)

– They manipulate “learning data” to reveal cause-effect patterns

– Goals are given, but the machines work out the best methods

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“Google is ‘re-thinking’ all of its products to include machine learning”

“Machine learning and artificial intelligence got a lot of love on Google’s 2015 Q3 earnings call”

“During CEO Sundar Pichai’s prepared remarks, he went out of his way to point out that investments in machine learning and AI were a continued priority for the company moving forward” Sundar Pichai, Google CEO

http://www.businessinsider.com/google-on-machine-learning-2015-10

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1eYniJ0Rnk

@dw2 Page 26 http://intelligenceexplosion.com/en/2011/superstition-in-retreat/

“Only humans can understand natural language”

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Convergence: AI & human intelligence

http://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/us/en/ibmwatson/what-is-watson.html

http://singularityhub.com/2011/03/09/paging-dr-watson-ai-jeopardy-champion-could-become-physicians-assistant/

“I for one welcome our new computer overlords”

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Technological unemployment

http://venturebeat.com/2013/12/05/khosla-explains-his-robots-replacing-doctors-comment-and-goes-on-the-hunt-for-data-scientists/

“By 2025, 80% of the functions doctors do will be done much

better and much more cheaply by machines & algorithms”

– Vinod Khosla

“80% of doctors will be replaced by technology”

@dw2 Page 29 http://dilbert.com/strips/comic/2011-12-16/

Technological unemployment

Admin staff

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Group discussion 3

Which employee tasks within your companies are most likely to be replaced by automation in 5 years?

How can you “race with the machines” rather than “racing against the machines”?

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Group discussion 4

Which changes to current operational practice will make it more likely you are ready to

create a successful new future?

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ft2fLuz9mF0