the future of jemaah islamiyah & the radical islamist challenge in

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The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in Southeast Asia Dr. Zachary Abuza

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Page 1: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

Southeast Asia

Dr. Zachary Abuza

Page 2: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

Bali, 12 October 2002

Page 3: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

JW Marriott, 5 August 2003

Page 4: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

Australian Embassy 9 September 2004

Page 5: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

Resiliency: 300+ Arrests

Page 6: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

Colonels

Dulmatin Zulkifli Marzuki Noordin Mhmd Mop Top

Dr. Azahari Zulkarnaen

Abdulrahman Ayob

Page 7: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

Organizational Dynamics

Amir

Shura

Mantiqi 1 Malaysia, Southern Thailand & Singapore

Mantiqi 2 Java and Sumatra

Mantiqi 3Mindanao, Sulawesi, Malukus

Mantiqi 4Papua & Australia

Laskar Mujiheddin Laskar Jundullah

Operations Communications

Economic Security

Missionary

Wakalah

Fiah

Fiah

Page 8: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

Timetable• Hambali has revealed that there was a debate within the

organization whether to continue the pace of attacks or lie low and rebuild in the wake of the post-Bali arrests.

• The PUPJI outlines a 30 year time-frame for jihad, which it describes in the phraseology of guerilla war:“View, analyze and explore all aspects of life in the enemy’s body and in the environment”;“View carefully and honestly all our potential strengths and effective powers we possess”;“Determine points of target at the enemy and the environment to be handled in relation with our goals.”

Page 9: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

Abdullah Azzam: Organization Based on the Life of the

ProphetEmigrate

[hijra]

Train

[tarbiyyah]

Islamic State

[Sharia]

Fight

[Qital]

Page 10: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

Natural Timetable• Press reports cited intelligence officials

as saying there is a second cell of suicide bombers poised to attack again.

• It took 9 months to plan and execute the Bali attack; 10 months to execute the bombing of the Marriott and 12 months to launch this attack.

• Although press reports suggested that JI was about to unleash a wave of attacks in Jakarta last December, they did not materialize.

Page 11: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

Charismatic Leadership

• Noordin Muhammad Top and Zulkarnaen are charismatic individuals, both credited with recruiting groups of shaheeds -suicide bombers; something that just did not seem possible in Southeast Asia a few years ago.

• Interrogations in Malaysia revealed that Hambali had recruited some six individuals for martyrdom missions.

• Zulkarnaen established a suicide cell of the JI, known as the Laskar Khos, which had approximately 15 members.

Page 12: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

Ability to Learn• The General Manual for Operations, a section of

the PUPJI, details the four-stages of operations: 1) Planning2) Execution 3) Reporting 4) Evaluation

• Emphasis is placed on education, meticulous planning, and learning from past acts (including mistakes). But do they actually learn?

Page 13: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

Composition of Bombs

Page 14: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

Recruitment• Though estimates on the size of JI vary from

around 500 to several thousand, it is not a large organization.

• By their very definition, terrorist organizations are elite, not mass based. For their survival, they have to be highly selective of who they take into their ranks.

• Four factors play the greatest role in recruitment into JI: kinship, mosque, madrassa and friendship.

Page 15: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

Al Ghuraba• Established in 1999, by Hambali, for the purpose of

developing young JI members to become trained operatives and future leaders

• Led first by Abdul Rahim, Abu Bakar Ba’asyir’s son, and later by Hambali's brother, Rusman Gunawan, who also handled some finances for his brother.

• Of the 19 members, six were Indonesian, thirteen were Malaysian, though two resided in Singapore.

• Thirteen of the 19 have family ties to JI or the MILF.• Six of the Malaysians are graduates of JI’s Luqmanul

Hakiem school. • Only a few received combat training at LET or Al Qaeda

camps. One said “al Ghuraba was formed purely for religious study and discussion.” Another said senior Jemaah Islamiyah members ‘saw the urgency of regeneration in the movement’ and sent their sons and their students to Pakistan to study to become ulamas.”

Page 16: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

Mindanao & the MILF Link• Tawfiq Riefqi, Rohmat Zulkifli &

Mustaqim• Camps are still in existence, though

smaller. 1-2 dozen people at a time.• 3 Classes already “Graduated.”• Undetectable or at least plausible

deniability.• Debates within the MILF over ties to JI• But now a card to play at the peace

talks.

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Page 17: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

Balik Terrorism

• 2/27/04 Superferry 194 killed

• 12/04 Bombing• 10/04-1/05 Three

aborted bombings• 2/14/05 triple

bombings• C4 in Aglipay Street

Page 18: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in
Page 19: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

All Channel Network

Page 20: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

Sectarian/Lateral Violence

• The first half of 2004 saw a brief but alarming up-tick in communal violence in Malukus and Sulawesi; attempt to spoil Malino Accords (2002)

• ASG has called for a jihad against Christians (ASG targeting 1991-1995 was exclusively sectarian).

• MILF never really engaged in sectarian bloodletting, but some are frustrated and more predisposed.

• Zulkifli and JI members calling for it.• Specter of broader sectarian violence in Thailand: Targeting of Monks

Page 21: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

Factionalism?

International JihadistsNeo-Darul Islam

Page 22: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

Laskar JundullahLaskar Mujihideen

Pertubuhan al Ehasan Funding through Kompak & Al Haramain

Training/

Indoctrination

JihadMILF Weaponry

Propaganda/Fundraising

Page 23: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

Monthly Attacks by Type (Jan 04 - Feb 05)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Jan-

08Fe

b-08

Mar-0

8Ap

r-08

May-0

8Ju

n-08

Jul-0

8Au

g-08

Sep-

08Oct

-08

Nov-0

8Dec

-08

Jan-

09Fe

b-09

Month

Bombings/ attemptedbombings

Arson

Attack/ Assassination

Page 24: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

Monthly Deaths by Type of Attack (Jan 04-Feb 05)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan-

08Fe

b-08

Mar-0

8Ap

r-08

May-0

8Ju

n-08

Jul-0

8Au

g-08

Sep-

08Oct

-08

Nov-0

8Dec

-08

Jan-

09Fe

b-09

Month

Total deaths

Deaths from bombing

Deaths from Arson

Deaths fromAttacks/Assassination

Page 25: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

Pre Tak BaiJanuary-October 2004

• 24 Bombings (1 double, 1 triple)

• 7 Attempted bombings

• 5 Killed & 72 wounded

• 9 Bombings had no victim

Page 26: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

Post Tak Bai25 October - 22 March

• 48 Bombings (4 double, 1 triple)

• 12 Attempted• 31 Killed, 318

wounded• 9 Bombings had no

victim

Page 27: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

Out of the Woodwork: Jihadis in Aceh

• Mujihideen Council of Indonesia (MMI)

• Abu Jinril & the Laskar Mujihidin

• Islamic Defenders Front (FPI)

• Medical Emergency Relief Charity (MERC)

Page 28: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

PKS• 1-8% of DPR seats

between 1999-2004.• 650% increase in

share of popular vote.• Downplayed

Islam/Sharia, focused on governance and corruption.

• Sights set on 2014 election.

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Page 29: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

PAS• In 1999, PAS and the opposition had to win 65 seats to

deny the National Front a two-thirds majority. Though they failed to do so, the BN lost 18 seats, dropping to an uncomfortable 76 percent of Parliament.

• The majority of those lost seats were in the Malay heartland of the northeast.

• In the 1999 election, over half of Malay voters in peninsular Malaysia sided with the opposition.

• Previously UMNO accounted for 70-80 percent of that constituency. Thus UMNO has to rely on their Indian and Chinese coalition partners even more, further alienating their core Muslim constituency and fodder for PAS’s propaganda.

• PAS controlled 2 of the 13 federal governments.• At the national level, PAS controlled 14 percent (27 of

193) of parliamentary seats.

Page 30: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

2004 Polls• In the 2004 elections, the first under Prime Minister

Abdullah Badawi, PAS experienced a serious setback: losing control of Terengganu.

• Arguably this was because of gerrymandering and electoral irregularities.

• Yet, PAS took some comfort from the fact that their share of the absolute vote increased over the 1999 poll.

• PAS appears to have held onto the electorate that defected to them in 1999.

Page 31: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

PPP

KISDI

PKS

KOMPAK

MMI

PAN

Laskar Mujahidin

FPIGPI

Laskar Jihad

JI

Laskar Jundullah

PDI-P

Golkar

Muhammadiyah

NU

Hizbut al-Tahrir

PBB

X= Propensity for Violence

Y= Islamist Goals

Page 32: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

Saiful Mujani• Conducted with the help of the Muhammadiyah,

the October 2004 poll found an alarming upsurge in support for Islamic terrorists.

• 16 percent of the respondents agreed with the bombers, while 25 percent refused to disagree with their means and ends.

• “There is a significant number of Indonesians, at least half, [who] do not have a negative reaction to that and they agree with silence at least, or protect this kind of activity. Of the 40 percent of respondents who had heard of JemaahIslamiyah, one third explicitly supported them.”

Page 33: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

Zachary Abuza

[email protected]@msn.com

202-429-3861 (w)617-669-5798 (c)

Page 34: The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in

www.rienner.com 303-444-6684