the future of media in a networked world
DESCRIPTION
Futurist Gerd Leonhard talks about the future of broadcasting and media. More on my blog http://tinyurl.com/o8fedzTRANSCRIPT
The Future of Media in an Open, Networked and
Always-on WorldGerd Leonhard, Media Futurist
Presentationat the 2009 Siemens Media Industry SummIT in Rome
Leadership is crucial
Leadership is crucial
Serious opportunities exist in Media
Our world is indeed always-on
Our world is slowly but surely moving to open platforms
Egosystem becomes EcosystemReal-Time Everything
And magnetic, engaging brands win
• I want it when I want it [time-shifting]• I want it how and where I want it
[place-& platform shifting]• I want to be able to influence, talk-back,
contribute, determine [Control-shifting]• I’ll always want real value for my attention - or
else...[attention-shifting]• Total and complete Fragmentation -
as well as Re-Aggregation
Some important emerging cultural* practices...
Trend Example: the BBC iPlayer
• I think that up to 85% of the viewers will watch TV on their schedule, using any content from any archive, anytime, anywhere
• Mobile devices (streamed and cached) will make up the majority of usage (but some networks will be hard pressed to deliver)
• Copy protection, 7-day restrictions and UK IP requirements will be removed sooner or later
• iPlayer success proves that sharing, community, engaging is key for the Future of TV
• The difference between ‘watching a show’ and ‘owning a copy’ evaporates
• The iPlayer concept opens up many new up-selling opportunities
• This probably can’t be scaled without using some form of P2P technology (think Skype...)
In all Media, Push is out
Pull is In
Push is out
Pull is In
Content 2.0 Trends•We don’t consume - we use•Listening & watching is copying, by default (legal frameworks will adapt)
•Users are Content, themselves, too•Advertising is becoming 100% targeted, integrated, contextualized... Content!
•All content goes over IP
The Digital Natives: Internet over TV
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Was Is Soon The Future
Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard)
Value of ‘a Copy’ Value of CONTEXTValue of Meta-Content Value of Experiences
Value of ‘a Copy’
Value of ContextValue of Experience
Value of Meta-Content
This requires a web-native Ecosystem
Content
Telecom & ICT Brands
(Advertisers)
CE (Device Makers)
Broad-casters
ISPs & Telcos become Content Players * in many drastically different ways
New Data Economy
New Content Economy
Next Generation Advertising
How, when and where can you charge for content?
First: what is Content, in the Future?• Professionally produced and
traditionally / legally owned• Created by the Users and shared-
alike-commons-public-free-etc• Meta-Content: the Users’ data and
click-streams layered around other (professional) content
• The Users themselves• Pro Content ‘appropriated’ by Users
So...nobody wants to pay anymore?
Let’s take note: How, when and where can you charge for content?
• We are only at the very beginning of this new content logic & ecosystem
• There are no recipes to success, yet!• Content is culture - and by definition
vastly different by location and constantly changing
•When and how much can you charge for content?
• We are only at the very beginning of this new content logic & ecosystem
• There are no recipes to success, yet!• Content is culture - and by definition
vastly different by location and constantly changing
•When and how much can you charge for content?
The balancing act gets harder... and faster
Attraction
Attention
Audience Growth
Fans & Followers
Stay relevant
Lock-in
RetentionConversion to $
Sales Increases
Encourage Participation
Engagement
Ownership
Key PositionDrive adoption
Be trusted
Control
Rupert Murdoch, chairman of News Corporation, this month
summed up the shift in thinking. “We are in the midst of an
epochal debate over the value of content, and it is clear to
many newspapers the current model is malfunctioning,” he
said, announcing plans to start charging for online content from
general interest newspapers such as The Times of London.
Some opinions
Google & Free Music in China•Free / Feels Like Free Music for China! •Unlimited, unprotected downloads•Paid with Attention, $-ized via Ads• In China, Copyright is a ‘lost cause’•Google is willing to ‘lubricate’ a new logic
•Free = nobody pays actual $ anywhere•Feels Like Free = the payment is bundled, or hidden, or absorbed somewhere else, or build-in; but: no individual payment decision is required everytime
•Freemium = all users get real value free of charge, but a good percentage selects to buy premium offers beyond the free level
•3rd party pays: someone else pays for my usage because they want access to me (and my data)
Freemium and New Generatives: Pandora
Convenience
Personalization
Packaging
Premium Experience
‘Paying for Privacy’
Convenience
Listening, Reading or Watching =
Keeping, Copying & Sharing
Broadcasters, Publishers and Studios:
The Future: not prevention but smarter toll-booth strategies
Stabilizing Piracy....????• Downloading has simply given
way to streaming on demand• Everything is moving to the
mobile phone - and sharing goes x100
• Broadband speeds keep increasing, costs keep dropping, everywhere
• Governments can and will not police the Networks to enforce scarcity of content or friction in content acquisition
=2.0
Social media shifts: Example: TV
So will people read like this?
Trends• Reading off screens will grow
exponentially, everywhere• Touch-screens will rule• Innovative UI & great UX is crucial • Expect device makers to offer subsidy
deals to mobile / data networks (like the Kindle in the US), and move towards ‘free’
• Content flat rates will explode, UGC will be crucial to fast adoption
Don’t be too little too late
Summary / Re-Cap
Real-Time Everything
Real-Time Everything
★ email me at [email protected]★ twitter.com/gleonhard★ facebook: gleonhard★ more presentations at
www.mediafuturist.com
Thanks for listening!