The Future of Microelectronics and Photonics,and the Role of Mechanical, Materials and Reliability Engineering

Outline of a key-note talk, MicroMat 2000, April 17-19, 2000, Berlin, GermanyE. Suhir,

Bell laboratories, Lucent Technologies, Inc.,600 Mountain Ave., Room 1D-443, Murray Hill, NJ 07974, USA

908-582-5301, 908-582-5106, suhir@lucent.com

“Quo vadis?”The Life of Apostle Peter

“The best way to predict the future is to invent it” Unknown Engineer

“My interest is in the future, because I am going to spend the rest of my life there”Charles F. Kettering, American Inventor

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future"Yogi Berra, American Baseball Player

"Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons."Popular Mechanics Magazine, 1949

Introduction

The emergence of, and progress in, microelectronicsand photonics have revolutionized the telecommunicationsand information science and engineering in the 20-thecentury. It would be difficult to identify or even conceive ofany other contemporary technologies that have had a moredramatic, pervasive, and beneficial influence on oureveryday living. The extent and sophistication of thespectacular scientific and technological advances that are atour fingertips today as a result of the successes inmicroelectronics and photonics are amazing. These “high-technology” areas control everything - from a space shuttleto a washing machine - and are equally important from theperspective of an air force pilot, a young video enthusiast, abanking executive, an entertainer, or an homemaker. A goodexample is the astonishing growth of the Internet, with thenumber of users continuing to double every few months.Microelectronics and photonics have tremendousimplications for industry, employment, strategic position ofthe country, and even for the future organization of thesociety. The well being of the industrial nations depends onthe development of intelligent products, tools and processes.It is natural that everyone, not specialists only, wonderswhich new applications of microelectronics and photonicsare most likely to come into life in the near future and whatdifference these applications might make for the 21-stcentury home and office.

On the other hand, mechanical and materialsengineering is perceived, especially by those not in the field,as the most traditional, routine, “old-fashioned” branch ofengineering which simply cannot have very much incommon with the advanced, sophisticated and exciting“high-technology” world. The truth is, however, that

microelectronics and photonics have their foundation inmaterials, structures (designs) and manufacturing technologies.All the basic functions performed by electronic circuits andphotonics devices are highly dependent on electrical, optical andmechanical properties of the employed materials and theirreliability.

Therefore the role of a mechanical, materials and reliabilityengineer is extremely important in the “high-tech” world: it ishis/her responsibility to make sure that the appropriate materialis selected, and that the given component, device or system willbe viable and reliable, i.e. that no critical failure is likely to occurduring manufacturing, testing, transportation and operation ofthe product or the system.

In this overview we discuss the major trends inmicroelectronics, photonics, and some other areas of the “high-technology” engineering, with the emphasis on the role ofmechanics, materials and reliability in the state-of-the-art andprogress of the “high-technology”. We will describe which of thenew and emerging directions and technologies look mostpromising, and what challenges a mechanical-materials-and-reliability engineer will most likely to encounter in connectionwith these technologies.

It should be pointed out that to be a “prophet” in predictingthe future of the “high-technology” is not as hard as it may seemat the first glance: unless something absolutely unexpectedhappens, the current trends indeed determine what will takeplace in the foreseeable future. This is due to the tremendousmomentum of these trends. Such a momentum is supported bythe existing knowledge, powerful customer demand, and theenormous investments of capital and human resources.

The Future

Microelectronics

Trends The transistor invented in 1947 at BellLaboratories and the integrated circuit (IC) builtindependently at Texas Instruments and Fairchild Companytwelve years later revolutionized the electronics industry.Since then, the major trends in microelectronics were thedrives for smaller, faster, more reliable and less expensiveIC’s. Exponential trends in technology, productivity andcost improvements enable expanding markets andrevenues, which enable larger R&D and manufacturinginvestments, which, in turn, enable technology, productivityand cost improvements. This paradigm has served us wellfor almost four decades, and the semiconductor industry isprobably unique in maintaining such a steepperformance/price improvement trend for its products oversuch a relatively long period.

The progress in microelectronics is measured, first ofall, by the degree of miniaturization, i.e. by the number ofdevices, which could be crammed onto a silicon chip. Thedesire to make the devices smaller-and-smaller brought tolife small-scale-integration (SSI), medium-scale-integration(MSI), large-scale-integration (LSI) and very-large-scale-integration (VLSI) technology generations of the ICsystems. We live now in the VLSI era, when a typical chipcontains about ten million devices. The existingtechnologies are incapable yet to produce IC’s on a siliconwafer with 100% yield. If it happens, then a new era of ultra-large-scale-integration (ULSI), or wafer-scale-integration(WSI), will commence.

The number of electronic devices on a chip is stilldoubling approximately every eighteen months. It isexpected that this trend will have matured by 2010. By thattime highly packed IC’s (such as memory chips) will containup to a few billion devices, and the device density forcustom logic IC’s will increase from about 100 million toapproximately 1 billion devices per chip. Such a trend willbe, in part, accelerated by the fact that chips will grow insize. This, in combination with the trend towards thinnerchips, will provide an obvious reliability challenge for amechanical and materials engineer. Another challenge willbe due to the fact that chips with a larger number of devices(which will have substantially higher frequencies: speeds of200 MHz and higher are becoming more and morecommon) will dissipate more power. The effective handlingof the increased chip size and elevated heat dissipationrelies on the continuous effort in designs, materials andmanufacturing technologies.

Silicon wafers will also grow in size. A typical wafertoday is 4-in in diameter, and the largest wafers are twice aslarge. The industry is moving to 12-in or even to 16-in (aJapanese program) wafers. It is expected that 12-in waferswill be introduced into high volume production by the year2010. Mini-batch processing and, perhaps, single-wafertechnologies will play an important role in the 12-in waferera. There is a crucial need for the continuous materialsengineering effort in silicon technology. Silicon is still theprincipal material for both digital and analog IC's. To haveacceptable yields during manufacture, the number ofdefects, either present in the starting material or introducedduring processing must not exceed one per wafer permasking step. Such a stringent requirement has forcednumerous discoveries and inventions about the growth ofbulk silicon material and epitaxial layers, lithographic

patterning with feature-sizes below 1 micron, feature-size controlbelow 0.08 microns, as well as plasma processing, etching,metal bonding, and encapsulation technologies and techniques.

Molecular beam epitaxy (MBE), invented by Cho andArthur, Bell Laboratories, in the late 1960s, is expected to beone of the major semiconductor manufacturing technologies ofthe future. It enables one to create artificial semiconductors, withproperties that do not exist in naturally occurring materials. Thiscreated a new concept, bandgap engineering, which permits tomake devices with properties heretofore not possible.

Economics Consumer and communications electronics isexpected to grow from $744 billion today to about $165 trillion by2003.

The mainstream technologies in semiconductormanufacturing are approaching a turning point caused by theincreasing gap between the growing complexity of the IC’s andmanufacturing processes, on one hand, and the acceptablecost, on the other. Therefore in the future, the number of devicesper chip may be constrained not only by the capabilities of thetechnology, but by the economics as well. The cost of a typicalfabrication-line-of-the-future for making complex chips might beas high as $10 billion. Therefore there may be only a few, say,five to ten, such lines in the entire world.

A semiconductor manufacturing factory-of-the-future will becharacterized by high level of automation; simplifiedmanufacturing processes; high level of flexibility; high yields;clean chemistry; high quality (contamination free) manufacturing;continuously improving capital productivity; and appreciation ofmodularly upgradable equipment designed for very highreliability.

As the actual (and required) yield increases, productiontesting (which even today weighs 30-35% of the IC totalproduction cost) will increase considerably. An emergingtechnique is concurrent testing. This technique will likelybecome an industrial reality in several years

Despite the growth in the chip complexity, the design timefor complex and highly packed chips will continue to decrease.This will be due, first of all, to the growth in the capabilities of thecomputer-aided-design (CAD) equipment and software. By theyear 2010, design of a complex chip will take just a few daysand might be relatively inexpensive.

New Frontiers Progress in microelectronics is bringing usgreater computer power and storage capacity at ever-lower cost.As long-term projections show, the microelectronics scene willcontinue to be dominated well beyond the year 2010 bycomplementary metal-oxide semiconductor (CMOS) technology.

Over the last years, complementary metal-oxidesemiconductor (CMOS) technology has steadily taken overapplications that were the domain of bipolar devices. This trendis expected to continue as CMOS and bi-polar CMOS (BICMOS)technologies penetrate the intermediate systems. Bipolaremitter-coupled logic (ECL) will continue to dominate high-performance and supercomputer system applications, althoughgallium arsenide (GaAs) is beginning to find some applicationsin the supercomputer field. The use of GaAs might be limited,however, by the availability of the appropriate software tooperate extremely fast systems, and the advantages of theGaAs semiconductors might be largely lost because ofpackaging and interconnection delays. Even if the softwareproblem is solved, the high cost will confine the use of GaAs tovery high performance systems. It is an obvious challenge for amaterials and packaging engineer to reduce the delays to suchan extent that application of GaAs becomes technically andeconomically feasible. In addition, it will be the responsibility of amechanical-and-materials engineer to solve numerous reliability-

related problems associated with thermal stresses in, andthermal management of, GaAs-based chips.

The emergence of stacked 3D silicon that has beenunder development for a number of years might have animpact on the future microelectronics systems integration.Volume manufacturing of this technology is now in place andfoundry services are provided to designers of stacked 3Dsilicon components and products. The performanceadvantages of stacked 3D silicon are very large: the ultra-high scale density results in factors of hundreds tothousands in both speed and power when ICs are designedfor 3D. Stacked 3D silicon has already had a major impacton microelectronics systems and products into which it hasbeen integrated. Examples include solid state datarecorders, digital signal processors, massively parallelprocessors, artificial neural networks, imaging processing,and imaging sensors. The present status and projectionsshow that, as volumes rise, no significant premium will berequired to incorporate stacked 3D silicon into standardproducts. With the coming next generation 3D stackedsilicon 10-1000 layers of ultra-thin, low power circuits with1000s of inter-layer interconnect will comprise entiresystems in a single cube. complete systems-on-chip,containing a growing amount of software in combinationwith dedicated hardware functions. Reduction of power willbe a key issue for many applications. Co-development ofhardware and software will be necessary.

Nanoelectronics The smaller are the devices, thecloser we come to entering the world of quantummechanics, where the rules of physics differ drastically fromthose of the macroscopic world. Probably, the one thinggenerally known about quantum mechanics is that matter,despite its particulate nature, may behave like a wave. Apossible new frontier in IC technology, based on the laws ofquantum mechanics, is the application of devices based onballistic transistors, and single-electron devices.

In the past several years, it has been established thatsolid state systems can be manufactured in such a way thatthe electrons travel freely (“ballistically”) for appreciabledistances (about several microns) before they collide withcrystal impurities. This provides a possibility of making“ballistic” transistors. It is possible that “ballistic” circuitscould operate more quickly and dissipate less heat thanconventional transistors. If this direction is successful, thenew devices might begin to gradually displace theconventional IC’s.

In single-electron devices, physicists are creating so-called semiconductor quantum dots also known asnanocrystals or nanoclusters) and are investigating how touse them in new forms of electronics and optoelectronics.They aspire to transmit data not by tiny currents, but bysingle electrons that hop from one quantum dot to the next.The wave mechanics of electrons (the laws of quantummechanics as applied to single particles) was emphasizedrecently when a team at the MIT produced coherent beamsof matter in what the group refers to as an atom laser.Elsewhere, scientists in France have succeeded indetecting decoherence, the transition from the quantumworld into the macroscopic world, by contriving systems thatcan be in two quantum states at the same time, albeitbriefly. It has been found also that quantum dots, similar tobulk semiconductors, can radiate light when galvanized withprotons or with an electrical current. Thereforesemiconductor quantum dots exhibit potential use in futureoptoelectronic devices.

Japanese scientists (Yokoyama et al) proposed anddemonstrated a resonant-tunneling hot electron transistor

(RHET) in 1985, and developed a multi-emitter RHET in 1993,enabling us to make an SRAM cell and multi-input logic gatesusing a single transistor. Through the development of thesequantum-tunneling transistors, we have created the technologyneeded to fabricate precisely controlled quantum well structures,and have mostly understood the physics behind quantum wellstructures. Although this technology has been successfully usedto develop heterostructure transistors and quantum well laserdiodes, RHETs cannot yet be used in practical applications. Onereason is that the RHET should be cooled down to about 77 Kand its functionality is insufficient to replace conventionalsemiconductor devices. To make these RHETs practical forfuture use in cryoelectronic systems, integration withcomplementary-HEMT logic circuits or development of newarchitecture circuits will be essential. There are also otherimportant areas of research for us. One is to develop roomtemperature quantum functional bipolar transistors. Another is todevelop quantum box devices based on the RHET technology,searching ultrasmall limit of electron devices. This research willbe also useful in the development of photonic devices, such asquantum dot lasers and new photonic memory devices.

Heterostructures The advent of semiconductorheterostructures (such as, say, III/V and Si/SiGe) has openedmany opportunities for novel physics fields. It has enabled alsoto study many concepts, which were difficult to apprehend inbulk materials. The developments in the physics ofheterostructures focus on the following main (overlapping)directions:• the physics of the heterostructures materials and

systems (fabrication processes, materials issues,bandgap discontinuities, approximations and theirbreakdown at small dimensions);

• the follow-on of existing physics topics now carried outin heterostructures;

• the novel physical concepts and experiments which mightbe carried out in the future in heterostructures (a bottom-up approach to new physics driven by the capacity ofheterostructures to act as microlaboratories fordemonstrating new physical concepts, even originatingfrom other fields of physics);

• the novel physics to be done in heterostructures in order toanswer new demands, be it on general motivations (i.e.advances towards the limits of computing orcommunications) or on evaluating the physical limits ofexisting heterostructure concepts (i.e. defining thephysical limits of electrical to optical energy conversion inpotentially thresholdless lasers or in LEDs.

It is anticipated that heterostructures will find their applicationin the micro- and optoelectronic market. Heterodevices areexpected to be used as the heterobipolar-, the hetero field effect-transistors, and the resonant tunnel diode and, to a lesser extent,in some optoelectronic devices. Considered figures of merit arefrequencies, transconductance, noise at high and lowfrequencies, threshold voltage, power delay, threshold currentand quantum efficiencies. Heterodevices have a potential tooffer exclusive qualities, i.e. high frequency transmission andsensors, and new mixed systems. In the case of logic the trendgoes to nanoscaled devices and ICs targeting nanoelectronicsbeyond traditional electronics. Heterostructure layers allow avertical nanoscaling and thus give an additional degree offreedom for designing and optimization. It is an attractivechallenge for scientists and engineers to solve the relatedtechnological problems like thin, low thermal budget oxides, likedefect free buffer layers etc. Special attention is put on Si/SiGe,which is now on an upswing in electronics and photonics.

Photonics

Why Light Beams? Photons can do many thingsbetter than electrons. Light beams have practically unlimitedinformation capacity (very broad bandwidth), very lowtransmission losses, do not dissipate heat, and are immuneto cross talk and electromagnetic interference. Therefore itis very likely that in the next century optoelectronics andphotonics will largely replace microelectronics. Fiber optics,for instance, has already taken over many functions ofelectronic systems. The world production of optical fibershas grown from 3.5 million kilometers in 1988 to 44.0 millionkilometers in 1997.

Applications of Photonics Although lightwavecommunications technology has been used commerciallyfor more than twenty years, it is only in the 1990s when thecost reductions, induced by performance requirements andtechnology, have caused a dramatic increase in the use ofphotonics. Application of photonics engineering today canbe categorized into the two major areas: information (whichincludes communicating, sensing and displayinginformation, as well as computing, i.e. processing andstoring information) and materials processing (cutting;joining; machining, including surgery; patterning, etc.).Photonics-based devices have some use also for powergeneration (e.g. solar cells).

The world of telecommunications is rapidly movingfrom copper wire networks to fiber optics, and optical diskshave become the major means for storing information.Photonics dominates displays and cameras, and isextensively used in printing. There is significant use of high-power lasers for materials processing. Optical lithography isa key tool in the electronics industry. There is growing useof photonics in backbone distribution networks, such ascable TV and personal communications networks. Thereare major potential applications of photonics in localnetworks, especially as broadband and multimedia servicesgrow. It is expected that optical fibers will be widely used inthe local telephone networks. It is expected that in severalyears from now lightwave communications products will beeffectively used for in-the-home and automobilecommunications.

Photonics Market The photonics market is currently

estimated as about $60 billion per year. Displays (includinglaser printers) and memory disks (mostly compact and otherlaser disks) each account for about one third of this market.The third largest segment is due to telecommunications(about $4 billion). The overall world photonics market ispredicted to be in the $100-$200 billion range in 2005.Trend data indicate that we not only have at least another20 years of progress, but also that the capability of today’smost advanced research photonics systems utilize only

about 0.1% of the physical limits of the lightwave technology. Photonics is still an immature technology and suffers from

a number of aspects, such as, for instance, high cost whichcurrently inhibits the introduction of photonics in many markets.If the cost issues are solved (e.g., packaging of optoelectronicdevices with fibers), photonics has a potential to enter a verybroad range of new markets. At the same time, being animmature technology, photonics has a potential for significantbreakthroughs, both in technology and in new areas ofapplication. There is a crucial contest underway for the franchisein providing broadband fiber-optics communications (voice, data,video) to homes and offices. The markets for different photonicsproducts and services are converging - and in such aconvergence lies both uncertainty and opportunity.

Key Technologies The key photonics technologies

(features) that have fueled progress in photonics are: 1) creationof ultra-pure glass fibers that attenuate optical signals by nomore than 0.2 dB/km; 2) invention and development of reliablediode lasers and 3) invention of erbium-doped optical amplifiers(EDOA’s).

At the system level, a key commercial technology, theWavelength Division Multiplexing (WDM) technology (Fig.1) isunderway. This technology is based on the realization of the factthat the contemporary lightwave systems utilize only a smallfraction of the potential bandwidth offered by optical fibers.Using WDM, multiple wavelength (“colors”) of light, eachcarrying independent stream of information, are concurrentlysent down the same fiber. These “colors” do not interfere withone another, so that four, eight, sixteen or more channels canuse simultaneously the same fiber waveguide. Once themultiplexing, dimultiplexing and precision wavelength control isachieved, cable bandwidth is instantly multiplied by the numberof channels used. The major current photonics technologies are:• optical fibers;• semiconductor optoelectronics devices (as light sources

and detectors);• optical storage media;• cathode ray tubes and liquid crystals (for displays); and• high-power lasers for materials processing.

The key technical developments in the photonics engineeringof the future with potential to have a significant impact on manyfields of “high-tech” engineering include:• improved manufacturability and yield for low cost, effective

packaging and integration for optical subsystems;• development of novel optics for advanced photonics

systems;• improved high-power light sources for memory, displays

and sensing;• improved lasers and detectors for networks and sensing;• development of new optical materials (e.g. for storage

information). The major current effort in photonics engineering is in the

following fields:• photonic local-area networks;• optical interconnects;• lithium niobate and semiconductor switch arrays;• silicon optical bench technology and passive components;• improved laser technologies;• optoelectronic IC’s;• optoelectronics and photonics packaging.

Photonic devices rely on a compound semiconductortechnology that, to date, has been most successful using theIII-V semiconducting materials, such as GaAs and InP. A largefamily of them, direct bandgap materials, are ideally suited forlight generation: laser and light emitting diodes (LEDs) and light

detectors. Molecular beam epitaxy technology has becomethe workhorse for the mass production of lasers, such asthose used in compact disk (CD) players. This technologycan grow thin films as thin as a single molecular level,uniform across the entire wafer, and reproducible fromwafer to wafer. Lasers The invention of the laser is one of theoutstanding technical achievements of the second half ofthe twentieth century. The advantages of lasers forcommunications were recognized immediately after theinvention of the laser, but practical applications awaitedthe development of a host of supporting technologies.Paramount among these was the development of fiberoptics suitable for long-haul transmission, and of reliable,low-cost diode laser devices. Today, fiber opticcommunications systems encircle the earth. Lasers arealso used in other aspects of information technology,including the generation, transmission, storage,reproduction and display of information. All told,information technologies account for about 90% of alldiode laser sales worldwide and a significant fraction ofnon-diode sales as well. Current developments couldlead to further expansion of the use of lasers ininformation technology. Examples are cross-talk freesemiconductor optical amplifiers, three-dimensional solidstate displays, and increased integration of electro-optical devices. Electro-optical devices will continue toplay an important role in information technology in the21st century. Semiconductor lasers are being used as lightsources and detectors in telecommunication systems.High-power laser diodes are used principally as pumplight sources for neodymium YAG lasers and formaterials processing. Higher power, up to 5W andimproved beam-shaping techniques are creating newopportunities for high-brightness diode-laser devices incommunications, industry and medicine. Vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser (VCSEL) is apromising device for achieving optical interconnections.VCSEL technology has made rapid progress in recentyears. VCSEL array link modules have been developedwith increasing speed by American consortia, such asOETC and POLO. On the other hand, high-performanceVCSELs, such as low-threshold or high wall-plugefficiency ones, are being developed. KrF excimer laser sources are being introducedinto leading edge manufacturing equipment forintegrated circuit lithography at 0.25-0.30 microns featuresizes. The most likely path for advanced IC lithographyover the coming decade will involve excimer lasersources and projection optical systems extending all theway down to about 0.13 microns feature size. Suchtechnology will be used to manufacture 4 Gbit memorychips, microprocessors, and other integrated circuitsystems with upwards of one billion transistors on a chip.Still, the optical lithography is facing difficulty in theresolution for isolated pattern arrangement under quartermicron region even if KrF excimer laser lithography isused. It is expected that the electron beam lithographywill play a complementary role for the optical lithography.The mix-and-match strategy will be open the door for thelarge volume production-use of the electron beamlithography.

Fiber-Optics Communications A simple fiber-opticscommunications link is shown in Fig.2. The basic electricalsignal is converted in this link into an optical signal in a

lightwave transmitter. At the destination, a lightwave receiver(built around a sophisticated photodetector, amplifier, and clockand signal recovery units) provides a digital data stream forfurther processing or other use. The information is transmittedby encoding it in the “ones” and “zeros” of digital data, with thelight source turned on or off to represent “one” or “zero” (“yes” or“no”), respectively, i.e. similar to the function of the p-n junctionin a semiconductor device.

The efficiency (capability) of lightwave transmission is

measured by the product of the bit rate (this can be defined asB=2f, where f is the bandwidth) and the distance that the opticalsignal can travel before needing regeneration (amplification).Today’s in-service systems can transmit information at the rateof 3.4 billion bits per second over a single fiber for distances ofmany kilometers. The lightwave transmission capability hasbeen doubling every year for well over a decade, and isexpected to continue to double every year for the next twodecades. The break-even distance, at which the use of fiberoptics becomes economically advantageous over copper wires,has been increasing by an order of magnitude every severalyears.

Lightwave systems running at bit rates up to 1.7 gigabitsper second are deployed in metropolitan areas, as well asbetween large cities, to connect central offices and majorswitching nodes. Lower bit systems (below 90 megabits persecond) are operated as subscriber loop carriers linking centraloffices to remote terminals in business and residential areas.Single mode fibers with low transmission losses (below 0.2dB/km are now commercially available. The first underseaoptical cable system has been installed for service across theAtlantic Ocean. Fiber optic submarine cable systems are viewedas an opportunity for emerging markets to access the globalhighways and super highways. The construction of submarinefiber optic cable systems as a transmission medium hasenhanced the quality and variety of global telecommunicationsservices while increasing competition, reducing prices andperhaps most significantly stimulating overall economic growthof different geographical regions. In the Pacific and Asia, many optical fiber submarinecable systems are now being constructed. The advanced andlarger capacity cable system, TPC-5 cable network adopting 5Gbps optical amplifier technology, will be laid in 1995/1996.Large capacity and high reliable optical fiber submarine cableshave given a significant impact to internationaltelecommunication services. Around the world, demand for thedigital telecommunication service is growing and more than250,000 km of optical fiber submarine cables has been laid.

Bell Labs has recently demonstrated a technique fortransmitting data over fiberoptic lines at a rate of one terabitper second. At that speed, which is more than 400 timesfaster than the current technology, the text of 300 years of adaily newspaper could be transmitted in a mere second. Thenew fiberoptic technology uses a combination of multiplexing

techniques in which polarized light beams of slightlydifferent wavelengths are used to carry datasimultaneously over the same glass fibers. Although thebasic physics of the technology has been proven, severalobstacles exist. The first is that, because the light signalsare weak—in multiplexing, a beam must be split into,say, 100 different signals-the signals need to bereamplified at intermediate points, for example, every 50miles. But that game can only be played for so long. Afterseveral such amplification processes, the signal-to-noiseratio becomes unacceptably small, and the signals can'tbe received error-free. Thus, unless further advances aremade, a terabit-per-second system will not be suitable forlong distances, that is, for transoceanic transmission.Furthermore, the multiplexing techniques need furtherrefinement. The fibers themselves aren't the problembecause they inherently have very large bandwidth. Theproblem is in getting all the bits on and off the fiber whenyou're trying to transmit terabits of information persecond. If the technological kinks can be worked out,terabit-per-second fiber optic systems could acceleratethe era of network computing, making trivial thetransmission and reception of large applications andhuge quantities of data.

The progress in fiber-optics communications is due notonly to the development of low loss optical materials, buteven to a greater extent to the invention of the laser whichis used as a light source in a fiber-optics communicationssystem. State-of-the-art high-performance semiconductorlasers that convert electronic signals into light pulses cannow produce well-defined light pulses that have duration ofless than a nanosecond. Improved lasers that emit light of“rock-steady” wavelengths will usher in the age of coherentoptical transmission, which sends concurrently differentdata on different wavelengths (“colors”) through the samesingle fiber (WDM technology).

Fiber to the end user - to the home and the business -will be one of the last steps in fully achieving an all-fibercommunications network. This step is being stimulated bythe wish to provide video services to end users, and by theintroduction of the new digital formation broadbandIntegrated Services Digital Network (ISDN). Once thissystem (described in greater detail in the “NetworkArchitectures” section) gains momentum, growth of theresidential fiber network is expected to be very rapid. Withinthe next 15 years or so, the fiber network could grow to 100million access lines.

For future fiber optics telecommunications newmaterials with low optical losses, well below 0.20 dB/km,should be developed. Cost-effective InP-based photonic integratedcircuits (PICs) are expected to find a wide application inthe future optical access networks. They can be used,particularly, in the following bi-directional schemes: TimeCompression Multiplexing (TCM) at single wavelength;Wavelength Division Multiplexing (WDM) with twowavelengths for the upstream and downstream signals;and WDM transmission with two wavelengths in the fiberwindow.

As to the mechanical performance of the low-lossoptical fibers of the future, they should possess sufficientlyhigh long-term static fatigue strength and good protectionagainst hydrogen and water. An improved long-termreliability of silica material in optical fibers can be achievedby using amorphous carbon films or metallizations, whichhermetically seal the fiber thereby increasing its long-termreliability. There are, however, many other mechanical

performance problems associated with the design,manufacturing and use of “hermetic” fibers. Examples are:understanding and minimizing, if necessary, the thermallyinduced stresses in metallized fibers, development of designguidelines for metallized fibers subjected to the lateral and/orangular ends misalignment, design of partially metallized fiberswith consideration of the stress concentration at the end of themetallized zone, etc.

Polymer Lightguides Plastic optical fiber has never been

good for much apart from decorative lamps, and the entireindustry is worth only about $50 million each year. But recentdevelopments in Japan may change that. Japanese scientists(Koike et al) have introduced a large-core, high-bandwidth andlow-loss graded-index polymer optical fiber. With using a newpolymer material, perfluorinated polymer, the attenuation of thepolymer lightguide has been lowered to about 40 dB/km, whichenables up to 1000m transmission. Large core (0.2-1.0mm india) enables the use of inexpensive polymer connectors, whichcan be prepared by injection molding, thereby eliminating theproblem of the modal noise. On the other hand, the developmentof the perfluorinated amorphous polymer base opened the wayfor the great advantage in the high-speed polymer optical fibernetwork. Thermal stability and long-term reliability are importantissues for the viability of such a network. Since the refractiveindex profile formed in the fiber is due to the distribution of thedopant molecules, the migration of the dopant has to beinhibited even at high temperature atmosphere in order tomaintain the refractive index profile. Thermal and long-termstability of the fiber strongly depends on the used dopant, andthe refractive index profile can be indeed maintained throughhigh temperature aging by selecting the appropriate dopant. Japanese scientists have proposed also an optoelectronicmultichip module (OE-MCM) using fluorinated polyimide opticalwaveguides. This module can be produced with anoptoelectrical substrate (OE-substrate), incorporatingphotodiode-to-waveguide coupling, and fiber-to-waveguidecoupling. The OE-substrate is composed of fluorinatedpolyimide optical waveguides fabricated onto a copper-polyimide multilayer electrical substrate. No change in theoptical characteristics of the waveguide was observed afterheat-treatment during the solder bonding process. Thewaveguide-to-photodiode coupling is achieved by deflectingthe propagating light with a total internal reflection (TIR)mirror, and self-alignment of the photodiode is achieved usingmicro-solder bumps. The TIR mirror shows low reflection loss ofless than 1.5 dB. These techniques make OE-MCM`sattainable. Planar Lightguides It has been demonstrated that it ispossible to fabricate highly effective active planar waveguides ofwide gap and high melting point materials by using the eutecticcrystal structures based on eutectic microcomposites ofinsulating crystals: the ZrO//2(c)-CaZrO//3 erbium dopedsystem. Exceptional physical and chemical properties of suchcrystals, the possibility of having multifunctional integratedresponses together with the relatively simple techniquesinvolved in their production, make these systems veryappropriate for future studies focused on their opticalapplications.

Microwave Photonics is a new direction betweenmicrowave and photonic technologies. Integration ofphotonics with microwaves and millimeter-waves opens noveland promising area in next stage telecommunicationtechnologies.

Optical Amplifiers Although optical fibers are usedbecause of their low transmission losses, regeneration(amplification) is still necessary to compensate fortransmission and splitted losses. If a “conventional”(electronic) amplifier is used, regeneration of the opticalsignal is needed every 80-120 kilometers. In such anamplifier, a photodetector converts the attenuated opticalsignal into an electric signal, and a high-speed electroniccircuitry then reshapes and amplifies the electrical signals,which are reconverted back to light. Then a laser furthertransmits the regenerated optical signal.

The erbium-doped optical amplifier (EDOA) inventedin 1987 is the major photonics breakthrough of the lastdecade. This amplifier, which revolutionized optical fibercommunications, controls light by using light, i.e. amplifiedoptical signals without converting them to electronic oneswith subsequent reconversion of the electronic signals tolight. In the predominant type of an EDOA in use to day, a980-nm laser source (“pump”) amplifies signal in an erbium-doped fiber at 1550nm (Fig.2). EDOA’s are currently used1) in repeaters to boost optical signals periodically in long-distance systems (such as submarine ones), 2) to boost thepower of the transmitter, 3) to increase the span length intransmission systems, 4) to compensate for splitting lossesin networking systems, and 5) to enhance the sensitivity ofthe receiver. Just one EDOA can boost signals carried bymany “colors” of light. This is especially important if thecapacity-building WDM technology is employed. EDOA’sare substantially more efficient than electronic amplifiersand enable one to transmit information at very longdistances without new regeneration. When used intransoceanic (undersea) cable systems, the EDOA’s areexpected to enable signals to transverse the oceans withoutregeneration.

Optical Interconnects Emerging optical interconnection

technologies offer both new capabilities and packagingchallenges for the system designer. These emergingtechnologies include parallel optics, high bandwidth plasticoptical fiber, and new VCSELs, which cover an increasingrange of wavelengths. Parallel optics offers low costinterconnection with perhaps the best use of backplanespace. Plastic optical fiber (POF) has been demonstratedwith high bandwidths above 1 GHz center dot km and lowloss between 850 nm and 1300 nm. VCSELs will soon beavailable over a range of wavelengths spanning thespectrum from at least 650 nm to at least 1300 nm. Neverbefore have systems designers of computing andtelecommunication systems had so many choices for opticalinterconnection and different packaging approaches. Goalsfor packaging may include the ability to make very smallsystems, the ability to distribute systems to solve thermalproblems, achieving good fiber management, getting themost bandwidth on and off and printed wiring board at theleast use of space and the least disruption of backplaneroutine area, being able to insert boards having both opticaland electrical interconnects without manual intervention withconnectors, and the ability to flexibly manage heatdissipation in a system and on circuit boards.

The use of optical interconnects between processors,boards, chips, and even gates (devices) can increasedrastically the interconnection speeds. Optical interconnectswill be vital to the development of high performance digitalsystems. The large bandwidth of optical fibers providesmuch higher speed and large transmission distance thanconventional electrical interconnects. Optical interconnectscan provide also high parallelism because they are immune

to crosstalk. Highly parallel board-to-board and chip-to-chipinterconnects using two-dimensional array devices and freespace optical coupling are particularly appropriate for dealingwith the massive amounts of data encountered in images(displays).

Lasers have been used in experimental opticalinterconnects on chips and from one circuit board to another.With the boards spaced about an inch apart, for example, lightcould travel through free space from lasers on one board todetectors on another to carry information between the boards. Inthe high-speed, large capacity digital systems of the future,optical signals going in and from integrated optical functionaldevices should permit logic processing unlimited bytransmission. Combining these devices with free-space parallelinterconnects will provide powerful functions for processingextremely large amount of data. This is expected to lead to thedevelopment of optical computers and photonic switchingsystems.

The development of optical interconnect devices willproceed through a synergetic collaboration among material andprocessing technologies, design and fabrication of integratedoptoelectronics, and optoelectronic packaging technology.

Nonlinear Optics A major objective of the research onnonlinear photonic materials is to produce all-opticalswitching and signal-processing devices that will operate atspeeds much faster than can be attained with electronics.However, to gain acceptance, high-speed photonic devicesmust satisfy several stringent requirements, some of whichare low linear and nonlinear loss, and low operating power. Until recently, silica fiber was the only `nonlinear' materialused successfully in demonstrations of high-speed signalprocessing at practical power levels. Indeed, using fibers,excellent results have been achieved. Nevertheless, fiberdevices have serious drawbacks for some important networkapplications, and the search for a suitable replacementcontinues. At the present time, the most promising andexciting alternative to fiber devices seems to besemiconductor optical amplifiers. It has been discoveredrecently that active semiconductor devices can be made toperform photonic signal-processing functions very effectivelyat low input power and at speeds not exceeding 10 ps, muchfaster than the carrier-recombination time.

Computing with Photonics Some consider photonics to

be the key that will lead to lightning-fast optical computersthat will use light instead of electrons to perform calculations.

Recent advances in optical data links point the waytowards broader application of photonics in the computers of thefuture in which photons are expected to be used both for storingand processing information. It is very likely that computer inputsignals will be from optical fibers, thereby contributing to thedevelopment of higher performance computers. Encouraged bysuccesses in computer-to-computer interconnection andcomputer peripherals, computer scientists are beginning toexplore ways to use photonics within the computer itself. Newconcepts in computer architecture take advantage of optics andoptoelectronics to provide interconnection paths in thedimension perpendicular to the computer circuits. This requiresdevices such as two-dimensional arrays of light modulators,surface-emitting laser diodes, detectors and beam-steeringholograms.

Although new devices for optical computing range fromthose operating at longer wavelengths down to the visiblewavelengths, the major effort has focused on the very-near-infrared range (0.8-0.9 microns). This is due to 1) the availabilityof GaAs laser diode technology; 2) the availability of silicon

detectors (which are cheaper than longer-wavelengthdetectors and can be far more easy integrated with siliconelectronics), and 3) the realization of a smaller diffraction-limited spot size than is possible with the longer-wavelengthdevices.

Although it would be premature to herald a new age ofphotonic computers, yet, the availability of the technology toproduce and integrate the computer components can makeit a reality in the near future. Microcomputer systems aredoubling their processing power every year. It is expectedthat computing twenty years from now will still depend onthe microcomputer, most likely, based on photonics, and onthe distributed processing power of networks (“clusters”) ofmicrocomputers with high processing power.

Holographic Memory Holographic memory storage is a

promising technology for digital data storage since late1960’s. The inherently three-dimensional nature ofholography makes high-density storage possible. Many“pages” of data can be superimposed in the same volume ofmaterial. In addition, holography has potential for fasttransfer rates and, in some cases, random access times.Fast transfer rates are possible because the data are storedand recovered in parallel, typically 1 million bits at a time.Some storage architectures allow for non-mechanicalaccess of data, which can provide sub-millisecond randomaccess times.

IBM has recently commenced a $32 million holographicdata storage project. The technology calls for data to bestored holographically as "pages" of bits in an opticalmedium such as a crystal. Early results from experimentsportend that holographic technology could be used to store12 times as much data at the same cost as magnetic diskstorage. Furthermore, because a laser is used for writingand reading the data, holographic storage promisesinput/output rates 10 times faster than its magneticcounterpart.

Bell Laboratories has just made significant stridestowards establishing the commercial feasibility ofholographic data storage, using a photopolymer medium asa new type of storage material. In the Bell Labs design, thedata, during recording, are encoded with error correctionand channel codes, and presented to the optical system aspages of binary data using a device called a spatial lightmodulator (SLM). The SLM consists of approximately 1million pixels, with each pixel representing a binary 1 or 0 byeffectively passing or blocking the light. This modulatedbeam is then coherently interfered with a storage that canuse light emitting diodes. The interference pattern of thereference and the modulated beam is then stored as indexperturbations (the hologram) throughout the entire volumeof the medium. To achieve high densities, more than onehologram is stored in essentially the same volume bychanging some characteristic of the reference beam. Thisprocess of superimposing holograms in the same volume iscalled multiplexing. The traditional multiplexing technique isto change the angle of incidence of the reference beam sothat each hologram is stored with a unique angle. Theseparation between holograms relies on the coherentnature of the hologram to reconstruct in phase throughoutthe volume only if this angle is correct. This phenomenon iscalled the Bragg effect. Since the required separationbetween holograms decreases with thickness, moreholograms (larger density) can be stored in thickermaterials. To read out the stored data, a reference beamwith characteristics matching those used during recording(color, angle of incidence, and position relative to media)

illuminates the media and diffracts off the stored indexperturbations to reconstruct the stored modulated beam. Thebits are then detected in parallel by a multi-element detector.Since all the 1 million bits are detected and stored in parallel, thetransfer rates can be as high as 1Gbit per second. Therecovered “page” is then processed using the channel and errorcorrection codes to reconstruct the original data. With theinvention of new multiplexing and system techniques combinedwith new types of storage materials, Bell Laboratories has madesignificant strides towards establishing the commercial feasibilityof holographic data storage. A density of about 50 bits permicron squared has been achieved in a photopolymer medium.Materials in hand will result in 5-1/4 inch disks with 125 GB ofuser capacity, more than 30MB/sec read rates, random access,and low cost removable media. Laser Beam Welding Laser beam microwelding representsan alternative joining technique to the well known solderingprocesses. The leads are welded directly to the conductingtracks of the circuit board. The advantages such as hightemperature strength, reduced manufacturing time and simplifiedmaterial separation at the end of the life cycle can be usedsuccessfully, if the drawbacks such as sensitive processbehavior are well controlled. Particularly, pulsed laser welding has gained wideacceptance as a highly reliable material joining technique forapplications that demand high strength; minimal size of the heataffected zone and accurate positioning of the weld area. Suchrequirements are necessary to ensure good coupling between alaser diode and an optical fiber. Typically, an active alignmenttechnique is used to adjust the relative positions of the laser andthe fiber to maximize the coupled power. A laser weld is formedwhen a beam of high power density is focused on the interfacesurface of two optical components. A certain percentage of theincident light is absorbed and converted into thermal energy inthe body. When the incident energy is increased to a sufficientlevel, the absorbed energy induces a phase change in the formof melting. The materials from both substrates melt formingmaterial intermixing. The liquid metal pool freezes very fastforming a high strength fusion bond between the components.This technique has found wide application in laser packages forsingle mode transmission. In such packages, sub-micronmotions of the package components can cause significantcoupling losses. In particular, if the laser moves laterally by 0.5microns, there typically is a loss of 1dB, and even 0.1-micronmovement can result in 1-% loss. The manufacturing processes for most lightwave devicesrequire precise alignment of the optical components for optimumcoupling of the light signal. An example is laser packagescontaining a laser diode subassembly connected to a fiber optictermination. The quality and long-term stability/reliability of thedevice is greatly dependent on the joining technique. Varioustechniques used to join the components include adhesives,soldering and laser welding. The use of adhesives requires longcuring time, during which the device must be held in thealignment fixture. Near perfect stability of the assembly fixture isrequired throughout the entire curing process. Ultraviolet curingcements have relatively short curing times, but are impracticalwhen the optical components are opaque. All organic adhesivespresent the possible occurrence of long-term outgassing orredeposition onto active elements in the package. This maycause long-term reliability problems. Soldering has been widelyused to join components in optical devices. The necessity ofheating the entire device to high temperature is undesirable withmost optical components. In addition, low melting temperaturesolders are susceptible to creep which may impact the stabilityof the device. Many of the deficiencies of adhesive and solder

techniques can be eliminated through the use of laserwelding. A phenomenon, which occurs, is that the final highcoupling power will randomly change upon the completionof the weld process. The change in power is due to arelative motion of the fiber end face with respect to the laserdiode. The factors involved in the laser welding process,such as material melting and rapid cooling, result in thegeneration of residual thermal stresses between thecomponents. The alignment fixture causes a constrainedthermal strain distribution to be generated. When theconstraint is released, the thermal strain results in a relativemotion of the components changing the optimum powerlevel. The behavior of the thermal strain is unpredictablesince the relative orientation of the optical components atthe optimum coupling is random. As a result, there exists aneed to analyze the phenomenon of thermal strain in orderto understand the effect of material and geometry onthermal strain. Other Future Technologies Video Services and Visual Communications Our desireto be entertained will become a powerful marketplaceincentive for the evolution of an all-fiber network, includingfiber to the end user. Several trends suggest thatentertainment video will become both interactive andavailable on demand. For example, viewers will be able toselect movies from a list of box-office hits, and order theseselections in any quantity and sequence at ant time. Somemovies and live programs will be designed to be interactivewith the viewer.

It is anticipated that by 2010, the network of interactivetelecommunications and entertainment will be widespread,and will enable users to indirectly and remotely experience aplace or an event in all dimensions. This network will allowpeople to participate in meetings without travel. Two-waytelecommunications connections will be used, in whole or inpart, to provide video communication among friends andbusiness colleagues, as well as to provide a wide variety ofeducational and entertainment video material to homes,schools and offices. Consumers will originate and createvideo material, as well as interactively select and receive it. Itwill become possible to attend meetings and other events atremote locations by simply flipping channels or to travelwithout leaving home. Owing to three-dimensional imaging,a person will be able to turn his head and see differentaspects of a particular scene.

The visual communications system of the future will bean array of technologies, components, communicationsnetworks, products, and services. These will meet a broadvariety of customer needs, spanning the gamut fromemotional closeness with family members to interaction withcustomers, suppliers, and co-workers. These services will behelpful also in teaching the latest concepts and technologiesin various fields of knowledge in a convenient and efficientmanner. Special view and multimedia chips will giveequipment manufacturers the core technologies needed tobring affordable, full motion video and CD-quality audio todesktop microcomputers and workstations.

Displays The global market for flat panel displays(FPDs) is currently worth about $10B, with increasingdemand forecast for the future. The current dominanttechnology is liquid crystal displays (LCDs). LCDs accountfor about 90% of the high information content displaymarket. It is a non-emissive light valve technology requiringbacklighting and having tremendous advantages in terms ofpower consumption and cost. However, LCDs still intrinsic

problems associated with production and operation. The majordisadvantages of LCDs are viewing angle and temperaturelimitations. The competing emissive technologies areelectroluminescent, plasma, light emitting diode/diode laserdisplays and, especially, field emission displays (FEDs).

FEDs is the most competitive second-generationtechnology. It has several significant advantages over LCDs:superior performance in terms of low power consumption, highbrightness, sunlight readability, full color, high contrast, fastresponse time, large viewing angles, and change in contrast orcolor as a function of angle. FEDs possess also a largedynamic range of light output including good dimmability, fastrefresh, very high spatial resolution, and high pixel count in awindow-pane thin package which has a viewing area which isfrom very small (e.g. camera eyepiece) to very large (60 inchdiagonal). FEDs have the potential to be scaled up to largescreen sizes with low cost and high yield. FEDs are beingdeveloped for a number of applications including military andcommercial aircraft cockpit displays.

Speech Recognition and Processing Speaker-

independent automatic speech recognition and synthesis willbecome commonplace. Intelligent machines will be able to talkand listen much as people do. By the year 2010 we will be ableto transfer personal speech characteristics across languages, tomake possible customized speech translators. Speech in onelanguage will be automatically translated in real time into asecond language, and the translation might then be synthesized,also in real time, with the voice characteristics of the originalspeaker. One system currently being studied would acquirelanguage automatically, learning the same way children do bystarting small and simple. Each new word, sentence orconversation it “hears” would expand its vocabulary. It isestimated that by the turn of the century, speech recognitionsystems will understand more than ten thousand words, twicethe number of words used daily by most people, with 95%accuracy.

Network Architectures The trend towards distributed

microcomputer-based processing power has led to ever-increasing intelligence in telecommunications and informationnetworks. Such network intelligence will make possible networkresources on demand for increasingly widespread resourcesneeded. For example, network users will be able to access theexact amount of bandwidth they need for specific applications,such as videoconferences, and get that bandwidth when theyneed it and for however long they need it. As part of suchnetwork resources on demand, most services will becomepreprovisioned: the capability to provide a broad spectrum ofservices will be set up in advance. A user or service provider willactivate the given service on demand.

Network architecture will accommodate a variety ofmultimedia applications using voice, data, and images. Key tothe efficient handling of such applications will be the mature andwidely deployed digital formats of Integrated Services DigitalNetwork (ISDN), broadband ISDN(B-ISDN), and SynchronousOptical Network (SONET).

Narrowband ISDN will mature over the next two decades.This will change the way we work and play. The telephoneservice may be largely replaced by B-ISDN as the basic wiredservice. The major benefits of the B-ISDN are high-qualityvideophone and high-fidelity voice. It is expected that by theyear 2010 B-ISDN will be widely available. This will make a widerange of possibilities feasible, including high-speed distributeddata networking, networked supercomputing, as well asmultimedia networking and video services. To meet thedemands for making the B-ISDN a familiar part of out daily life,

high-speed data-communication equipment with 100-Gb/sdata throughput and Tb/s optical transmission systems willbe required. This means that there will be a crucial need forhigh-performance and cost-effective packaging ofoptoelectronic devices.

Photonic transmission facilities will be based on theevolving international standard - the Synchronous OpticalNetwork (SONET) which defines standard networkinterfaces. Owing to SONET, telephone companies andend-users will be able to employ equipment from manydifferent vendors without worrying about compatibility. Existing telecommunication networks consist of opticaltransmission lines and electrical crossconnects andswitches. As a result of the worldwide growth in trafficvolume, of both existing and new services like multimedia,there is a need to further reduce costs, requiring betterutilization of fibers and high-capacity nodes. To fulfil theserequirements, an evolutionary approach is discussed. It isbased on using state-of-the-art photonic technology andmicroelectronics, and their potential improvements, tofurther reduce costs. Both photonic technology andmicroelectronics will be required in futuretelecommunication networks and can be used in acomplementary manner. Transmission bandwidth andcrossconnecting can be strongly enhanced by addingsystems based on wavelength-division multiplexing to theexisting systems (synchronous digital hierarchy and/orasynchronous transfer mode) that use electrical timedivision multiplexing. For the next few years, switchingnodes will still remain in the electronic domain because ofthe immaturity of optical time-division multiplexingtechnology. Also specifically discussed are the realization,evolution aspects and standardization issues of opticalnetworks/crossconnects. A demonstrator in which somefunctions are still realized by microelectronics can becomereality within a short time. However, much more researchand development is necessary to create an all-opticalcrossconnect product. Photonic networks will be the basis of a future broadbandInternet that permits easy access to a variety of multimediaservices. Optical frequency and time division multiplexingtechniques enable an optimum matching of the photonicnetwork’s capacity to the increasing communicationsdemand, thereby reacting to the requirements of newservices in a flexible way. Flexibility and reliability with highprofitability are the crucial requirements and crucialcharacteristics of future photonic networks.

There is also a strong need for wireless networking.Because people are increasingly on the move, a largenumber of network end links will be wireless. Customers willhave great mobility, and will depend on PersonalCommunications Networks (PCN’s) to automatically directcalls to them wherever they are. A combination of wirelesstechnologies and network-based messaging capabilities willmake people reachable any time and anywhere, if they wantto be contacted.

It should be pointed out that in many cases it is thepolitical objectives that stimulate competition today:privatization and liberalization are currently changing theworld telecom and multimedia market. The continuousevolution in silicon processing and optical fiber technologiesare enablers for next-generation systems and applications.Broadband Networks (ATM, SONET, SDH, etc.), FullService Networks (ADSL, VDSL, HFC, etc.), and WirelessPersonal Communication Systems (GSM, DECT, etc.) areonly a few examples. It is envisioned that microelectronicsystem design will evolve together with the silicon and fiber

technologies, in order to keep system development manageableduring the next decades.

The introduction of new types of interactive multimediaservices (Internet, etc) demands substantially increased capacityof the existing telecommunications network infrastructure. It hasbeen proposed that polymeric microstructure technology be usedfor future low-cost, high-volume tele- and datacom components,especially in the fiber-to-home networks. This will bring down thecost of optical terminations, including optoelectronic modules,fiber-optic connectors, splitters, etc.

Switching A key capability behind the evolution of network

architectures is the evolution of network switching. During the1990-s we see the transition to broadband switching initially withsoftware control for a stand-alone packet switch which willprovide broadband ISDN, initially at rates of 150 megabits persecond. We will also see the transition to a B-ISDN switchingmodule for a network switch. The switching evolution willcontinue to the year 2010 and beyond. It is expected that by theyear 2010 switching systems will easily accommodate photonictransport, with fiber lines in and fiber lines out. It is expected thatthe actual switching fabric of the future switching systems be allphotonic.

Software In the world of computers, it has often been

noted that any amount of improvement in hardware isimmediately put to use by new software products. The majorsoftware problem today is to increase programmer productivityto meet exploding demands. such an increase is expected tocome mainly from the growing sense of previously developedand tested software modules. Standards for software andelectronic systems should be pervasive and widely deployed in2010. Software design will be, for the most part, automated in away similar to today’s computer-aided design of IC’s. Softwarejobs will be heavily concentrated on front-end work andeventually on new technologies like photonic-based software.

Wireless Systems The telecommunications industry is

now in the midst of a second "wireless revolution" (after thefamous inventions of Marconi at the turn of the century). Thecurrent revolution began with the invention of cellularcommunications technology. Cordless telephones are providinginstant communications mobility in our homes and offices, andwireless local area networks (LANs) are being used forhigh-speed data networking inside buildings. Cellular serviceand paging systems provide communications coverage virtuallyeverywhere, and there are innumerable wireless remote-controldevices that make our lives easier and more fun.

One of every five new telephones in the United States iscellular. In the not-too distant future, people will find it quiteordinary to pay highway tolls by means of wireless electronictoll-collection system, carry a notebook (or palm-sized personaldigital assistant) with a wireless interface providing access to arange of personal information and messaging services, and toplace and receive calls on portable personal telephones thataccess either an office wireless network, when inside an officebuilding, or a public personal communications network (PCN)when outside the building. Emerging wireless systems andservices will provide the technology to allow people andmachines to communicate anytime, anywhere, using voice, data,and messaging services through telecommunications.

The substance of the cellular concept is in dividing aservice area into a number of relatively small "cells" and onlyusing a subset of the radio channels in any given cell. Thesechannels could be reused in cells that were far enough apart, sothat to keep the co-channel interference below allowable level.System capacity could be increased by reducing the size of the

cells, thereby increasing the number of times a radiochannel could be reused. While the concept was simple, theimplementation was both a regulatory and technicalchallenge.

The technical issues were solved in the United Statesby introducing the advanced mobile phone service (AMPS)which uses sophisticated signaling between mobile unitsand mobile switching centers to track and monitor mobileunits, control the radio transmission link, and performreal-time hand-offs from one cell to another. With a mere 50MHz a spectrum, there are now over 15 million subscribersto cellular service in the United States, and the number israpidly growing.

Current ("first generation") cellular systems are basedon analog FM radio technology. With the objective ofimproving quality and increasing capacity, secondgeneration cellular systems will be based on digital radiotechnology and advanced networking principles which willenable one to improve the quality and network capacity of asystem. These "second generation" systems will increasethe overall system capacity by a factor of 3 to 10 overexisting analog cellular systems. The "second generation"systems use principles derived from ISDN and intelligentnetwork to provide end users with "seamless" roaming andaccess to a wider range of telecommunications services.

Maximizing spectral efficiency, while maintaining ahigh-quality communications channel under sometimesharsh and unpredictable conditions, could be the largesttechnical challenge the wireless industry faces. Unlikephysical media, such as copper wire or glass fiber, whichprovide a somewhat predictable and controlled transmissionenvironment, the free-space environment for wirelesssystems is constantly changing and can result in co-channelinterference (distortion by other nearly systems using thesame frequency) or multipath interference (reflection ofradio waves off buildings or other structures).

Wireless data systems are receiving increasedindustry attention also in connection with the advent oflap-top and palm-top computers. Wide-area, two-waypacket radio and one-way paging networks are making itpossible to send and receive messages and access datawherever and whenever required. By allowing systems tobe set up where traditional wiring cannot be used, wirelessLANs introduce a new level of freedom for in-building datanetworking.

Currently, there is no wireless technology or systemthat will support all applications and end-user needs.Researchers and system architects are developing methodsto support applications "seamlessly" across varyingenvironments and technologies. Service zones can be usedto categorize end-user environments, manage theappropriate wireless architectures, and plan the evolution oftechnology. Here are the four basic service zones:global/national service zone, mobile service zone,local/micro service zone, and indoor/pico service zone.International and regional standards bodies are consideringhow to develop standards that will allow for "seamless"service across all environments. These considerationsrange from a single, all-purpose radio interface, to a familyof modular interfaces built from readily availablecomponents. With progress continuing in technology,standards establishment, and regulatory rule making, thevision of "seamless" end-to-end global wireless servicecould become a reality within the next decade.

Mechanics, Materials and Reliability

Mechanics The world (including the "high-technology" world) is made ofmaterials and structures, no matter who the Creator has been:God or Man. No wonder that a mechanical engineer can andshould find the applications of his talents in almost every field of“high-technology” engineering. At the same time the success ofa mechanical engineer in this field, which is definitely not atraditional area of mechanical engineering, depends significantlyon his flexibility, willingness to apply his knowledge to newareas, ability to learn new things, as well as ability to speak andunderstand the language of physicists, chemists, electrical andoptical engineers, etc. A mechanical engineer is neither better,nor worse than other specialists working in the field of “high-technology” engineering. But he is different. Theoreticalmodeling, for instance, whether analytical or numerical(computer-aided), is an important tool of a mechanical engineer.When a mechanical engineer approaches a problem which doesnot lend immediately to past experience, or when there is a needto enter into a more subtle concept that has not beenexperienced before, he tries to formulate a mental description ofthe problem, typically, with the use of mathematical and/orcomputer-aided “equipment”. The "high-technology" world hasalready benefited tremendously from the unique skills, breadthof experience and intuition of numerous mechanical engineersworking in this field.

Materials “High-technology” often needs new materials with improvedor simply new properties. Mechanical engineers do not createnew materials. Materials scientists and chemists do. It is wellknown that microelectronics and photonics have theirfoundations in materials science and technology. All the basicfunctions performed by electronic circuits and photonic systems,as well as their short- and long-term reliability, are highlydependent on the electrical, optical, chemical, and mechanicalproperties of the employed materials. It is, probably, also truethat no other areas of engineering use such a wide spectrum ofmaterials as microelectronics and photonics. R&D activities inmaterials and processing underlie all the manufacturing efforts inmicroelectronics and photonics. These activities include both thedevelopment of new materials and the ability to process theminto forms that can be turned into marketable products. Duringthe last several decades, the development and processing ofmaterials has undergone a revolutionary change from an art("heat, beat, and hope") to science, when more often than not itis possible to predict, estimate, and engineer the properties of anew material. It goes without saying that the continuingimprovement of materials and processes is a must for productsto be competitive in the existing and emerging markets.

As an example, let us formulate the major challenges inthe field of polymeric materials. These are widely used inmicroelectronics and photonics. Examples are: plastic packagesof integrated circuit devices, adhesives, various enclosures andplastic parts, polymeric coatings of optical silica fibers, and evenpolymeric lightwave guides. Polymeric materials are inexpensiveand lend themselves easily to processing and mass productiontechniques. The reliability of these materials, however, is usuallynot as high as the reliability of inorganic materials and is ofteninsufficient for particular applications, thereby limiting the area ofthe technical use of polymers. The ability to predict and possiblyoptimize the mechanical behavior of polymeric materials for“high-tech” applications is of obvious practical importance.Examples of some challenges encountered in this field by a

materials and mechanical engineer are: short- and long-termperformance of polymeric materials, their fracture toughness,moisture sensitivity, aging, adhesive strength, stressconcentration effects, role of fillers, various interfacialphenomena, response to dynamic and thermal loading,stability of manufacturing processes that involve making ofplastic parts and packages, etc. Reliability Reliability is the ability of a product to be consistentlygood in performance, and so elicit trust of both themanufacturer and the customer. Reliability is usuallydefined as ability of a product or a system to survive and toperform a required function, without failure or breakdown,for a specific envisaged period of time under statedoperation and maintenance conditions. ReliabilityEngineering studies failure modes and mechanisms, causesof occurrence of various failures, and methods to estimateand to prevent failures. In products for which a certainfailure rate is considered acceptable, Reliability Engineeringexamines ways of bringing this rate down to an allowablelevel. Reliability is a complex property which includes theproduct's (system's) dependability, durability,maintainability, reparability, availability, testability, etc.These qualities can be of a greater or lesser importancedepending on the product's function and operationconditions. Reliability considerations play an important rolein the design, materials selection and manufacturingdecisions. In “high-tech” engineering, reliability problemsarise during design, manufacturing, testing, and operation ofmaterials, devices, components, packages, and equipment.A company cannot be successful if its products do not havea worthwhile lifetime and service reliability to match theexpectations of the customer. Failures in a product have animmediate, and often dramatic, effect on the profitability ofthe enterprise. Profits decrease as the failure rateincreases, because of the increase in the cost of replacingor repairing parts, not to mention the losses associated withthe interruption in service. Too low a reliability can lead to atotal loss of business. In order that a product be successfulin the market place, an engineer must understand thephysics of failures and the ways in which the useful servicelife of a material, device, structure, or a system can beimproved. The major areas of interests for a reliabilityengineer are: various physical and statistical aspects ofreliability and quality; deterministic and probabilisticapproaches in reliability engineering; causes of materials,structural, and product failures (failure analysis); failuremodeling; natural or superimposed environmental effects;accelerated factors and accelerated testing; reliability andquality indices, and their evaluations; redundancies;qualification schemes and testing; non-destructive testingmethods and techniques; various statistical assessments,calculations and predictions; processing of reliability testand field data; optimization of redundancy, maintenance,and optimal search of failures (technical diagnostics);reliability of software; organizational measures for reliabilityand quality assurance, and others.

Reliability is the most important constituent part ofquality. This is the degree of goodness or worth of a product.Quality of a product means that the product conforms to theexpected performance requirements. It does not necessarilymean that the product is very good value for the money, orthat it provides many more facilities and functions that wouldbe expected in a product of that price. "Quality" means"conformance" and, accordingly, quality control of a product

during and after manufacture, as well as quality auditing of theproject which gave it birth, are strictly about checking againstpredetermined standards. In highly responsible objects, quality isoften associated with safety. Electronic Packaging

Role of Packaging Packaging of "high-tech" systems is

the major domain of a mechanical and materials engineer.Electronic packaging (which includes also interconnectiontechnologies) underlies all the vital applications of thecontemporary and future microelectronics. Packaging isdetermined by structures (designs), materials, andmanufacturing processes. It is aimed at physical protection,electric power distribution, signal transmission, and heat removalin the microelectronics system. Modern and future systemperformance is as much limited by these functions, as by theelectrical performance of the IC's.

Shrinking Technologies Spurred by the advent of low-

cost, high-speed complementary metal-oxide semiconductor(CMOS) devices, the ever-increasing demand for faster, smallerand cheaper systems, and global competitive pressures, manyfundamental changes are taking place in the microelectronicspackaging industry to better prepare it to meet the challenges ofthe next millennium for systems ranging from consumerelectronics to large systems such as mainframes. With CMOSperformance approaching emitter-coupled logic (ECL), CMOS isemerging as the engine of systems that span the entirespectrum of the microelectronics industry, fading thedemarcation lines between systems of different form factors, andencroaching on the territory of ECL-based mainframes. Partlydue to the insatiable desire of society for lower-cost systemswith high performance, the recent past has witnessed ashrinking large-system market and migration toward smallsystems, as reflected by the widespread use of CMOS-basedpersonal systems and portables today. Also evident is theconvergence of computers, radios, phones and videos into onelow-cost portable multimedia system possessing eventually allthe functions of this equipment to more fully exploit the sensesof mankind. Moreover, much attention is being given tothermal/power management and development of low-powersubmicron CMOS chips even for small systems such aspersonal computers in response to the rising power dissipationassociated with high-speed CMOS integrated circuits, and thedemand for more energy-efficient and environmentally correctsystems. To tackle these changes mandating high speed, lowcost, portability and low power dissipation, packaging needs totake on an evolutionary track for cost-effective solutions basedon a plethora of package options in existence today, particularlyin the areas of enabling technologies such as high-input/output(I/O) connectors (e.g., flip chip, tape automated bonding, ballgrid arrays and flexible edge connectors), multichip module(MCM) packaging (involving, for example, organic cards andboth ceramic and silicon-on-silicon MCMs), high-wiring-capacity organic laminates, as well as efficient heat-sinking.The future enabling packaging technologies will favor a highlevel of package integration, maximizing the benefits ofintegrated circuit (IC) performance gains through reducingpackaging delays, and small package form factors.

Across the two last decades, the IC packaging industryhas evolved from dual-in-line packages (DIP's), and pin gridarrays (PGA’s) to surface-mount (SMT), small outline IC’s(SOIC), chip scale packages (CSP’s), multichip-module (MCM),fine pitch ball-grid-array (BGA’s), micro-ball-grid-array (MBGA’s)and direct chip attach (DCA) packages and technologies.

The need for increased integration, driven primarily byportable computing, brings requirements for smaller, moreefficient packaging designs and technologies, more circuitson a chip and accelerated pace to move fromplated-through holes (PTH's) to surface-mount technologies(SMT). With the increasing complexity of integratedelectronic circuit and sensor chips, the need for efficientpackaging schemes becomes acute. Ideally one wants ahigh degree of flexibility, the possibility of accommodatingchips with different functionality, a high packaging density,good mechanical and thermal properties, a large heat-removal capacity, high structural and process reliability, andcompatibility with automated assembly. Various SMTtechnologies not only require less real estate, but also lendthemselves easier to more automation. It is expected thatSMT will prevail in new product designs for at least the next5-10 years. More backside active components will be usedin the SMT designs. This will further increase the "useful"PCB real estate. CSP technology results in packages, which are onlyabout 20% larger than the chip itself. For this reason, use ofthis technology can triple the future I/O density incomparison with the existing products. CSPs can be usedfor applications from memory chips to advanced high-performance processors. Successful implementation ofCSP technology can move the packaging industry from amechanical piecework mentality at 1 cent/pin to a learningcurve model more akin to wafer processing. As thepackage size approaches die size, package integrity can becompromised because thermally induced stresses canbreak solder joints. CSP’s can be handled, tested, reworkedand easily integrated with SMT.

MCM technology, it can successfully solvepropagation delay, power dissipation and some otherpackaging problems. MCM's provide substantialimprovement in circuit density, size and cost reduction,reduction in I/O counts, substantial thermal advantages oversingle-chip packages, increased reliability and improvementin system noise management (due to the nearly idealinternal signal lines). MCM’s are produced in three basictypes: MCMs on laminate (MCM-L), ceramic (MCM-C) anddeposited dielectric (MCM-D) materials. Thin film MCMs willfind more acceptance and implementation in intermediateand low-end systems, as well as in high-end computers.

BGA's will become more and more common in newdesigns. Developed as an alternative to quad flat packs(QFPs), BGA’s provide a high ratio of the number of I/Os topackage size: instead of having the I/Os around thepackage periphery, BGA designs use the entire undersideof the package to provide the interconnections. The mainbenefit of the BGA technology is higher density and higheryield than peripheral-lead packages. BGA technologies willrequire more highly controlled solder deposition (volume),as well as improved solder joint inspection. It is well known,however, that the use of BGA technologies in plasticpackage designs causes serious reliability problems. It isthe responsibility of a mechanical and materials engineer tosolve these problems. The use of direct chip attachment technologies, such aschip-on-board (COB), chip-on-flex (COF), chip-on-glassand flip-chip (FC) designs enables one to eliminate onelevel of packaging. Flip-chip-on-board (FCOB) offers thehighest density of all packaging technologies. It is expectedtherefore that flip-chip technology will become amainstream technology of the near future. We arewitnessing now the QFP technologies being replaced bythe BGA technologies which, in the near future, will be

replaced by the CSP technologies, which will be eventuallyreplaced completely by the FC technologies. While FCtechnology was invented over 40 years ago (with IBM's C4technology), it has only recently begun to gain increased usage.

The use of underfills has improved considerably thereliability of flip-chip solder joint interconnections. There is,however, still a crucial need for the further improvement of thereliability of both the solder joint and the underfill materials.COB technology involves bonding a chip onto a substrate,typically by a thermally conductive adhesive. The mounted chipis then connected to pads on the substrate by wire bonding andencapsulated. This technology offers the size and signal speedadvantages of wire bonding chips directly to the board, and isused in a wide variety of applications when there is a need forhigh board density, reduced weight and low cost. COB’s areused more and more to replace fine-pitch SMT in manyapplications. COF’s satisfy the stringent space, weight and costrequirements for applications ranging from mobile consumerproducts to magneto-resistive head disk drives. Many of theadvanced technologies can be implemented simultaneously. Trends towards package miniaturization ("shrinkingtechnologies") will continue for many years to come. The marketdrivers for miniaturization are the demands for lighter, higherperformance, less expensive, more reliable products. If theexisting trend continues, one can expect a five-fold functionalincrease by the beginning of the next century, with some itemsbecoming up to five times smaller as well. Board-levelpackaging will continue to improve, bringing more fine pitch andbackside active components, along with more direct chipattachment. Component function integration will result in a lowernumber of components per Printed Circuit Board (PCB). ThePCB of the next century will be lighter, smaller, thinner, cheaperand with increased performance. PCB technologies may soonsee 2 mil lines with 2 mil spaces. The greatest growth will be inboards of less the one sq. in. High I/O packages areapproaching interconnection densities of about 400 I/O per inchsquared. To reduce PCB real estate and accommodate largernumber of smaller components, more fine pitch components willbe used and fine-pitch standards will decrease from 16 mils to12 mils. The limitation will be determined primarily by theaccuracy of the component placement technology. During thetransition of packaging technologies from QFP to BGA to CSPto FC technologies, the PCB technologies will begin to uselaser-formed microvias at first, then, as the number of microviasper panel increases, the photodefinable dielectric build-upprocess will become the microvia of choice. With the microviatechnology, it is possible to produce very small holes (50microns) in a high volume environment. Compared to othertechnologies like plasma and photo-vias, the microviastechnique is backward compatible with current PCB processes.In addition to this advantage, the microvia technology has otherbenefits over other interconnection techniques. Thistechnology, based on a laser process, can be utilized withsignificant cost advantages over other existing and newtechnologies. Advanced packaging technologies will require newmaterials for substrates, such as new laminates, silicon, glass orceramics, as well as improved material handling. A naturalquestion to ask, as far as “shrinking technologies” areconcerned, is how far can one “push” the existing technologiesto make chips thinner-and-thinner, bigger-and-bigger, with more-and-more devices on them, having in mind that there will be,probably, no significant breakthroughs in the packagingmaterials and designs. The ability to obtain an answer to thisquestion for particular package designs is of an obviousimportance. It is clear also that this answer can be obtained onlyon the basis of a thorough analysis of the combined effects of

materials, structures (designs) and loading conditions, withconsideration of various factors of uncertainty. Portable Electronics Portable electronics will becomeincreasingly important and is expected to changedramatically the landscape of the electronics manufacturingindustry. Over the past decade, consumer orientedproducts, such as notebook computers, cellular phones,and palmsize camcorders have made a significant impacton the way we live and work. The demands for furtherminiaturization increased density and improved functionalityof portable and handheld electronics will continue to drivemanufacturing companies for many years to come.Personal digital assistants (PDA's) are an example of anewly emerged portable product. PDA's include a peninterface, built-in clock, calculator, note pad, scheduler,phone directory, link to PC, as well as link to other PDA's.Systems of this type are expected to radically alter businessand social environments. Marketability of portableelectronics will be influenced by its cost, size, and weight,as well as by battery life; storage of communications,computing, and information; and information display.

Low power consumption is needed for lightweight andportable products. These demands require smaller, moreadvanced power supplies and batteries, and low voltagecomponent generations.

Viability, reliability and manufacturability of portableproducts will be strongly dependent on the successfuldevelopment and selection of new materials and innovativephysical designs. Effective shock protection of portableelectronics will become increasingly important.

Electronic packaging faces several distinct issues asthe microelectronic industry rapidly evolves towardsportable products, and more powerful and efficienttechnologies. Some of the obvious trends include leaps inmicroprocessor power, increased integration, environmentalconsiderations and partnering, and, most importantly,smaller and simpler packaging structures, such as ‘smartcards”.

Microprocessors Microprocessor technology is

evolving rapidly, with new levels of power becomingavailable every 12 to 18 months. This rapid evolution bringsa need for changes in card content and layout, requiring afinely tuned, new product introduction process. Thermalmodeling must be more accurate to adapt to the increasedheat from more powerful microprocessors that requirebetter-defined signal and power source layouts.

"Smart Cards" Personal Computer Memory Card

International Association (PCMCIA) card technology (“smartcards”) is becoming the standard for new, portable personalcomputers. The market for these cards is projected to be$6.5B by 2000 year and to grow at an annual compoundedgrowth rate of 55%. The anticipated growth will be thelargest in the USA. Originally developed as memory cards,“smart cards” have quickly expanded to include logic andapplication. These cards are used as hard drives, solid statemass storage cards, and flash memory cards. They areused also for communication needs including networking,and fax and modem technologies. "Smart card" technologyissues that affect electronic packaging include challenges tothe assembly process posed by the flexibility of this thin, 20-mil thick, PCBs. The tendency of these cards to wrap andblend requires special stiffeners to stabilize the PCB forcomponent placement and testing. An obvious

mechanical/materials challenge is to ensure sufficient reliabilityof silicon chips in these cards.

Reduced board thickness requires the use of low profilecomponents such as flip-chip, direct chip and thin quad flatpacks (TQFP). PCMCIA connectors present a challengebecause of the high density of the leads, low flexural rigidity ofthe cards and the high mechanical stress associated with theirfrequent use in the field. These challenges demand improvedmaterials, designs and manufacturing processes. A "smart card"must be covered to protect it against damage. Covertechnologies include laser welding, gluing, snapping orclamping. It is desirable that these technologies providereworkable solutions and should include, therefore, the use ofspecial tools for removing the covers.

Environmental Issues Environmental issues will become a

higher priority. Making products environmentally friendly will nolonger be an option but a requirement. This includes,particularly, eliminating lead from solder. The strategic directionsto take are toward the use of nonleaded solders and conductiveadhesives which, in addition, bring direct savings by eliminatingthe reflow step.

Contract Manufacturing With the growing complexity of

electronic packaging, more companies are abandoning theirvertical manufacturing for partnership with contractmanufacturers. These companies are concentrating on theircore competencies of design and marketing, and contracting outthe manufacture of boards and boxes. The contractmanufacturer's factory is becoming an extension of thecustomer's own business, with some sharing in the developmentof the customer's latest products. Contract manufacturing hasbecome a strategic direction for electronic packaging business.This business offers services that include assembly, test productassurance, packaging distribution, quality services, designservices, design for manufacturability, prototype manufacturingand materials management. Contract manufacturing customerscan choose from individual services or any mix, includingcomplete solutions. Electronic packaging business of manycompanies is already well on the way to achieving up to 50%external contract manufacturing in the nearest future.

Photonics Packaging

Photonisc vs Electronics Packaging Packaging

technology for optoelectronics and photonics devices andsystems shares many of the challenges and base technologieswith electronics packaging.

From the mechanics and materials point of view, these twoareas of "high-tech" packaging are very close: the materials(brittle materials, such as semiconductors and silica glasses;polymeric materials used as encapsulants or coatings; epoxyadhesives; solders, etc) are more or less the same; the loads(primarily thermally induced) are of the same nature; even thestructures (composites of different kinds) are to the great extentsimilar. The trends and challenges in optoelectronics, photonicsand microelectronics packaging are similar as well: increasedintegration, an emphasis on miniaturization, manufacturability,short- and long-term reliability problems (especially thoseassociated with the mechanical behavior of materials) costeffectiveness, etc. Flip-chip technology created an effectiveassembly tool for aligning optical chips. Self-aligned flip-chipassembly technologies, using solder bump bonding, exhibit,when applied to photonics circuits, several importantadvantages: fast and high-precision assembling, low cost, andreasonably good robustness and ruggedness. This technology iscurrently pursued by many manufacturers to passively align and

bond optoelectronic components to obtain satisfactoryoptical coupling between the fiber and the active device.

There are also substantial differences between therequirements to photonic and electronic packages. Asignificant challenge inherent in the optoelectronic devicepackaging is the coupling of light signals emanating fromedge-emitting laser chips. These devices are tiny, about 1mm on a side, and therefore optical coupling to fiberrequires that the fiber be positioned to an accuracy of a fewtenths of a micron in a 3D space. This positioning mustmaintain its accuracy for the 25 year lifetime of the devices(particularly, in the case of undersea applications). Even 0.5Am of lateral misalignment and less than 2° in angularmisalignment between a laser source and a lightguide canresult in coupling loss exceeding 2 dB. Experiments withlithium niobate integrated optical chips and single-modeoptical fibers have shown that the optical coupling loss dueto misalignment can be held to less than 1 dB in a fullyself-aligned multifiber assembly.

Thermal Management Although lightwaves do not

dissipate heat, effective thermal management is asimportant in photonic packages as it is important inelectronic ones. A typical edge-emitting communicationslaser diode will have an energy flux through the facet of upto 2 million watts per square centimeter. At reasonableabsorption coefficients for facet coatings this represents aheat flux of 500 watts per centimeter squared. This issignificantly, by a factor of 5, higher than in the current VLSIdevices. The influence of even slight levels of impurities orcontaminating particles is disastrous for thermal control.The importance of understanding the thermal paths and thecontrol over die and package bonding is apparent. Inaddition, the wavelength sensitivity of long wavelengths(1550 nm) lasers is temperature dependent - about 0.1 nmper degree C. Since wavelength control is important tohigh-bandwidth system operation, many laser sources areequipped with thermoelectric coolers and precisetemperature control circuits.

Solder Materials and Joints Solder materials and

solder joint interconnections are widely used in photonicsapplications. Solder materials for photonics applications aresupposed not only exhibit satisfactory mechanical reliability,but also should not be prone to creep and stress relaxation,as long as relaxation might be due to creep.

Solder-sealed fiber penetrations are currently used tomeet hermetic packaging requirements for fiber-opticdevices. Solders are used also to bond semiconductordevices, and, in particular, InP-based laser devices, on amounting plate or directly onto a package. The bondedassembly consists in this case of the die-bonding metalliclayers, the solder layer (joint) itself ("hard" solders, such asgold-tin, are typically employed) and the submount(mounting plate).

Silica material used in fiber optics is a brittle one andis prone to fracture including the delayed fracture (staticfatigue). The mechanical behavior of the solder material in asolder joint is very important from the standpoint of thestrength of the optical fiber. High stresses at the solder/fiberinterface, especially in the solder meniscus region, canadversity affect the reliability of the glass fiber. A crack inthe solder material can propagate to the surface of the glassfiber resulting in the fiber fracture. Elevated stress ordelamination at the solder/fiber interface can also lead tocrack initiation in the fiber. Therefore the reliability of thesolder material and the design of the solder joint have a

direct effect in the glass fiber reliability and should be evaluatedalso from this point of view.

Metallized Fibers Local metallization of fiber surface

facilitates soldering, but also improves the fiber strength andfatigue properties. It has been shown that the reduction in thefiber short-term strength resulting from metallization iscompensated by the increased resistance of the fiber to staticfatigue (delayed fracture). Soldered metallized optical fibershave been found to have lifetime expectancy over twenty yearseven when submitted to continuous stresses above 100 MPa.Many additional investigations should be done to developreliable materials and technologies for hermetic fibers, and tounderstand and predict the short- and long-term mechanicalbehavior of metallized fibers.

Reliability Testing of Optical Fibers Another reliability

aspect is associated with mechanical testing of optical fiberssoldered into ferrules or capillaries. The reliability ofmicroelectronic components is typically evaluated bytemperature cycling. No mechanical testing is usually involved.As to the optical fibers solders into ferrules, the reliability of boththe fibers and the solder joints is evaluated on the basis of pulltesting, and the robustness of the materials is judged uponbased on the magnitude of the force at the fiber or joint failure. Itshould be pointed out, however, that the structure is not stressfree when the mechanical load is applied, but is subjected tothermally induced stresses. It is the combination of the thermaland mechanical stresses, not the mechanical stresses alone thatresults in a structural failure. Therefore the ability to evaluate,theoretically or experimentally, the level of thermally inducedstresses, and the total stresses and strains due to the combinedaction of the thermal and mechanical stresses is very importantin fiber optics. It is clear that an adequate pulling force can beestablished only after the thermally induced stresses aredetermined, and the stress level reflecting the required strengthof the fiber is established. MEMS The development of microelectromechanical systems(MEMS) based on micromachining and microelectronicstechnologies has been significant for almost a decade. However,it is unrealistic to consider micromachining technology as amicro version of conventional machining technology:micromachining technology stemmed from the planar technologyof silicon and is basically a two-dimensional processingtechnology. On the other hand, it is obvious that a micromachinecannot compare with a conventional machine in strength andpower. For the successful development of MEMS in the future,a simple rule is suggested by the experience gained in the pastfew years: try to avoid as much as possible mechanical couplingwith the outside world while trying hard to improve the MEMStechnology to enhance the mechanical power of the devices. Inaddition to that, the strategy proven to be correct for thedevelopment of solid-state sensors also applies: MEMS devicesshould mainly be developed for new applications with a vastmarket. Their substitution for traditional applications should notbe considered as a main strategy of development. MEMS technology made possible further miniaturizationand mass production of sensors, actuators, and computers.MEMS devices are used to create distributed systems bymerging sensing and actuation with computation andcommunication. MEMS construct both mechanical andelectronic components based on microelectronic fabricationtechniques and materials. All MEMS fabrication approachesfollow three key characteristics, namely, miniaturization,multiplicity, and microelectronics.

MEMS are rising in popularity, boosted by the lackof computer-aided design tools and standardizedpackaging and testing methods. MEMS technology hasbeen used to build microactuators, microsensors, microminiature motion-systems (e.g. microrobots), switches,attenuators, and other photonics devices. Most MEMSchips are made of silicon, although they can also consistof other materials such as quartz, polymers, ceramicsand metals. Automotive applications remain MEMS'largest market, followed closely by medical and industrialapplications. As we move toward greater integration atthe component and subassembly level, the use of MEMSin the photonics technology will become increasinglyimportant. Entire optical systems (lenses, collimators,isolators, active elements) will need to be built onSi-based optical benches. Precision assembly and testtechnology will be needed. This can be achieved byusing MEMS. Sensors Successes in photonics technology resulted innew generations of highly effective and reliable sensors thatare being used in many areas of engineering and science.Fiber optic sensors are used, particularly, for long-termobservation of physical parameters in the Civil EngineeringIndustry, such as an underground laboratory, a copper alarge hydroelectric power or mine station. Sensors could beconnected in networks and put into cables. The type offiber, the optical sources and detectors are being selecteddepending on the operating principle of the sensor and theapplication. Fiber-optic sensors can be effectively used insmart structures. The idea of 'smart' structures, whichare designed to react to the conditions of their internal orexternal environment, has attracted considerableattention during the last two decades. In such structures,integrated sensors can be utilized to monitor the ‘health’of the structure, thus warning of the onset of would-beabnormal conditions, which might have an adverse effecton its performance, compromise its safety, etc. Current trends of fiber optic sensor technologyare in a direction of a broadening scope of sensorinnovation based on a few basic concepts. Both singlemode and multimode fibers have their proponents: singlemode - for primarily interferometric sensors andmultimode - for primarily amplitude-modulated sensors. Challenges: Performance and cost demands onfuture photonic and optoelectronic active and passivecomponents and devices (semiconductor lasers, externalmodulators, amplifiers, filters, switches, photodetectors,integrated photoreceivers, etc), which are needed inadvanced optical networks and the future photonicstechnologies, will continue in the foreseeable future asfiber networks are increasingly deployed. To meet thesedemands, new materials and manufacturing methodsneed to evolve from components which are designed tomeet the system reliability requirements or which requireprecision manual optical alignment as part of themanufacturing process. The advent of WDM systemsand optical switching will also require packaging of multi-fiber (ribboned) components. Some major mechanical/materials/reliability problems andthose related to the mechanical behavior and reliability ofphotonics materials and structures can be summarized asfollows:

• Mechanical behavior and reliability of bare, coated, ormetallized silica glass fibers

• Metallization materials and techniques, and the reliability ofmetallized fibers

• Polymeric materials used in fiber optics, and theperformance of polymer coated fibers

• Mechanical behavior and reliability of optoelectronicsmaterials and packages

• Drying and mechanical reliability of sol-gel materials• Planar lightwaveguides• Static fatigue (delayed fracture) of glass materials for

photonics applications• Reliability of solder materials and joints for photonics

applications• Creep of epoxy adhesives and solders, used in photonics

engineering, and its possible effect on the long-term opticalperformance of photonics devices and systems

• Polymeric lightwaveguides, their field of application andpotential reliability problems

• Mechanics of fiber drawing and reliability problemsencountered during drawing of optical fibers

• Reliability of optical glass fibers embedded into epoxyadhesives, including the effects of delaminations and voids

• Thermally induced stresses in, and low-temperaturemicrobending of, optical fibers

• Comparative reliability evaluations of hermetic and non-hermetic photonic and optoelectronic packages

• Reliability problems of multichip and surface mountedcomponents as related to photonic packaging

• Reliability and packaging of sensors, gratings, couplers,fiber lasers, etc.

• Reliability testing in photonics systems• Reliability problems during manufacturing of photonics

systems• Strength norms (guidelines) in fiber-optics engineering.• Response of photonics materials and structures to shocks

and vibrations• Reliability of photonics materials, structures (designs), and

systems for particular applications: consumer, undersea,offshore, avionics, automotive, medical, military, etc.

Conclusion

The key “high-technologies” of microelectronics,optoelectronics, photonics, computing, and software willadvance dramatically beyond today's powerful capabilitiesduring the next decade. While microelectronics may possiblymature in about a decade or so (although mechanical andmaterials challenges associated with reliability andmanufacturing of microelectronics systems will remain for manyyears to come), the others have at least two more decades togo. Tomorrow's technologies will make us more productive, ourlives easier and will give us more free time and more fun. Thesetechnologies will bring about three major things:

• Convenience: Disappearance of wires, mobility,hand-held computer power, "smart" cards that let youstore, access, and use a wide variety of information

• Control: Videophone monitor on or off, only calls fromcertain people get to you; reachable anywhere, or not atall, as you choose; communications and computerdevices that react to speaking, writing or typing

• Connections: Widespread videophone capabilities forhomes, offices, even pay phones; shop-at-home servicesthat let you customize before you buy; real-time languageinterpretation; interactive computer learning;work-at-home option for millions.

Theoretical (both analytical and computer-aided) andexperimental approaches, methods and techniques ofmechanical, materials and reliability engineering are and will

continue to be an important and indispensable tool in thedevelopment of viable, reliable, convenient and cost effective“high-technology” components, devices and systems of thefuture.

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APPENDIX

Arun Netravali, new President of Bell Labs, begins his presidencyby making a few considered predictions on where communicationswill take us.

• Communications will enfold the Earth"When your children become roughly your age, this is the worldthey will see: a mega-network of networks will enfold the entireearth like a communication skin."

• Devices will have more to chat about thanhumans

"By the year 2010, we will have so many devices that will beconnected to the network that the infrachatter between thesedevices will surpass human communications."

• Bandwidth will become too inexpensive to meter "Bandwidth or capacity will become so cheap that it won t be

worth metering. We'll be billing for services -- not for the use ofbandwidth."

• Personalized services will be hosted on open “Consumers and businesses will have lots and lots of

individualized, customized communication services, which will bewritten up by the large number of software programmers on thisopen friendly communications network. Today most of ourcommunication services come from service providers, but tomorrowthere will be a cottage industry of programmers who will be writingthese communication services on this open, hosted network.Communication services will do for communications networkingwhat killer applications have done for the PC industry or thecomputing industry. But while this network will be friendly for thepeople who write these services, this kind of a communicationsnetwork will be safe, so that faulty applications or faultycommunications services will not bring the entire network down liketoday's PC world."

• The Internet will become high IQ "Today's Internet will change and will morph into a very

broad bandwidth High-IQ Net which will respond to lots of naturalqueries: spoken languages, written languages, independent ofaccent. It will understand Indian, as much as it understandsIndianan. It will have caches, temporary storages, located all overthe network so that it will become faster -- and it will have softwareagents that will sift information for you from all over the world."

• Networks databases will make connectivity asnap

"This network will become a very high level mediatorbetween human beings and human knowledge. Today,communications networks do low-level direct connections. Theyconnect people one-to-one, one-to-many, many-to-manysometimes. They also sometimes connect people and machinestogether. But tomorrow's network will allow a much higher level ofconnectivity. Let me give you a couple of examples. If I want to talkto a colleague of mine in China, the network will do real timetranslation between English and Chinese for the two of us. If I'mdriving cross-country heading into Des Moines, the network will findme a room for less than $70, no more than a mile away from theinterstate, next to a Chinese restaurant which will accept triple Acoupons."

• Virtualization will be a reality "We will enter the age of virtualization. There will be virtual

office rooms, virtual classrooms, virtual training. Distances will notbe limiting anymore, it will be the age of global competition.

Products will be designed, manufactured and distributed atlightening speed. You will be able to sit in front of a console, designyour own car with all the features you want, send it to a virtualfactory to get it manufactured and UPS will deliver it to you within 2-3 days. Educational systems will be transformed. Not only students,but people like you and I, will be able to take courses that arecustomized for us from the best professors in the world with the skilllevel and at speed that is consistent with our own abilities."

E. Suhir, Ph.D., is Distinguished Member of Technical (Research) Staff,Bell Laboratories, Physical Sciences and Engineering ResearchDivision, Murray Hill, NJ 07974, USA. He is Fellow of the IEEE (Instituteof Electrical and Electronics Engineers); ASME (American Society ofMechanical Engineers) and SPE (Society of Plastics Engineers); andSenior Member of the APS (American Physical Society). Dr. Suhir isTechnical Editor (Editor-in-Chief) of the ASME Journal of ElectronicPackaging, and Distinguished Lecturer of the IEEE CPMT Society andthe ASME. He has authored about 240 technical publications (papers,book chapters, books, patents) and organized numerous successfulworkshops, meetings and conferences on different topics of physics,mechanics, reliability and processing of materials in microelectronicsand photonics systems. Dr. Suhir received many distinguished serviceand professional awards, including -1999 ASME Charles Russ Richards Memorial Award for pioneeringand outstanding contributions to mechanical engineering. -2000 IEEE-CPMT Outstanding Sustained Technical ContributionAward for outstanding, sustained and continuing contributions to thetechnologies in fields encompassed by the CPMT Society, and as arecognition of the pioneering work in materials and mechanicalengineering related to microelectronics and fiber-optics structures; and -2000 International SPE Fred O. Conley Award for outstandingachievements in plastics engineering and technologies;