Justine Bornstein, Deloitte LLC4 December 2018

The future of mobility: How will it impact the energy industry?

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What will the new ecosystem look like and how will it operate?

Where will value be created and captured?

How should an organization transform its strategy, business model, product portfolio and capabilities to succeed?

1

2

3

1

2

3

Key questions for a dynamic and changing environment

Converging forces will likely give rise to the emergence of four future states of mobility…

Extent to which autonomous vehicle technologies become pervasive:

• Depends upon several key factors as catalysts or deterrents—e.g., technology, regulation, social acceptance

• Vehicle technologies will increasingly become "smart”; the human-machine interface shifts toward greater machine control

Extent to which vehicles are personally owned or shared:

• Depends upon personal preferences and economics

• Higher degree of shared ownership increases system-wide asset efficiency

Future states of mobility

Personal Shared

Auto

nom

ous*

Driver

Assis

ted

Vehicle ownership

Veh

icle

co

ntr

ol

Shared Autonomous

SharedDriver-Driven

Personally Owned Autonomous

Personally Owned Driver-Driven1 2

3 4

Asset efficiencyLow High

5

…and are transforming the longstanding structure and dynamics of many industries

6

Future Mobility Ecosystem

Companies need to make decisions about where to play

P

Smart

HomeParking

Roads &

Highways

Transit

Hubs

FinishStart

WalkwaysRoads & Bike

Paths

Vehicles

Parts and

Suppliers

Car and

Pod OEM

Autonomous Drive

Hardware and Software

Mobility management

Relationship

Management

User

Control

Predictive

Analytics

Mobility Data

CollectionContent

Creation

Predictive Content

Analytics

In-Vehicle Experience

In-Vehicle

Services

Physical InfrastructureFleet Operation Energy Infrastructure

Procurement

Finance & Insurance

Vehicle Tracking

Setup, Scheduling &

Allocation

Flow Mgmt.

Congestion

Pricing

Highway Tolls

Parking Mgmt. Battery Lifecycle

Mgmt.

Smart

ConsumptionSupply Chain

Mgmt.Traffic Train Bus Tolls

Pricing, Payments and Insurance

Facilitating Ecosystems

Policy

Mobility Manager

Infrastructure Enabler

Experience Enabler

Developmentand Mfg.

Opportunity

Space

Railways Destination

ConnectivitySecurity &

RiskHorizontal

OS

Cyber Infrastructure

Maintenance

Stations

Source: Deloitte Analysis

7

Case Study: Daimler

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Case Study - Daimler

It has made significant investments across multiple areas of new mobility

Source: Deloitte Analysis

P

Smart Home Parking DestinationRoads & HighwaysBike Path/

WalkwaysBus

Subway /

Light RailTransit Hubs

Traffic Train Bus Tolls

Maintenance

Stations

Vehicles

Fleet Management Physical Infrastructure

Finish

Start

Mobility

ManagementIn-Vehicle Experience

Cyber Infrastructure

B

Energy Infrastructure

Daimler FS / Facilitating Ecosystems

Finance / Leasing, Payments and Insurance Data Management

9

Case Study - Daimler

Investing broadly to build, acquire, or gain access to capabilities

Connected

Autonomous

Shared andServices

Electric

Other

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172011

Uber

EV Charging JV in Europe

JV – Business

PartnershipJV – Minor Stake

Car2Go

BYD

Bosch

NYPD

AV testing in CA, USA

JV – Major stake /

acquisitionInnovation

smart ready to drop

NANOSLIDE

ECO Thermo

CoverBlueDIRECT

CityPilot

Collision Prevention Plus

Active Blind Spot AssistDistonic PlusAdaptive Brake Assist

Parktronic PlusMagic Body ControlCross-traffic assist

Intelligent Drive

MercedesMe

Mercedes Pay

pacTris

Predictive Powertrain Control

OmniPlusMatternet

Starship

Zonar Systems

Detroit Connect’s Virtual Technician

Foton

Urban eTruck

Pilot

Fleetboard DispoPilot

Highway Pilot

Truck

Freightliner Inspiration

HERE

RideScoutGlobeSherpa

myTaxi

Hailo

Blacklane

PayCash

AutoGravity

Intel

moovel

CrooveTomTomAthlon

ARENA 2036

Qualcomm Wi-Fi

Smart factory

adVANce

AREUS

“Innovation Cluster” L1/L2 Automation features

“JV / Acquisition Cluster” Sharing, financing, and fleet management platforms

ChargePoint

Google Home

MobilityX /

Capital Factory

Mercedes

Energy

10

Implications for the oil & gas sector

11

Several sectors are participating in EV infrastructure build-out but no single one can do it all

Hardware manufacturers

Power companies/utilities

Independents

Auto manufacturers

Oil and Gas Companies

Sectorsbuilding public

EVcharging

infrastructure

12

Smart grid

management

Network

management

software

The EV infrastructure value chain has many parts and opportunities for a variety of players

Software

Charge point

manufacturer

Charge

point

installer

Power generation

(includes renewables and

decentralized sources)

Power

distribution

Supply EV

charging

points

Operation

and

maintenance

Recycling

Ch

arg

ing

in

frastr

uctu

re

EV charging infrastructure value chain

Smart grid

access

Smart

charging

capability

Energy

consumption

management

Hardware

Supply Delivery Customer Management

Services

ResidentialCommercial

Smart generation with advanced monitoring and controls

Smart transmissionand distribution

Advanced inter-connected solutions and self-service

Enhanced user experience and productivity

Infrastructure planning Financing and installation Management and ownership

13

Is the future electric?

EV adoption likely to jump after 2023

• This is due to technological improvements mentioned above

• It is probably the biggest cost

•We will eventually need smart charging and V2G—but in 10+ years

Grid will need to be reinforced

•Many players coming into this field—very fragmented

•No one sector—at present—can run the whole value chain

•Understand where to play and how to win—then partner up

New business models will be created

• Range improvements

• Charging speed improvements

• Increase in number of models

• Cost reductions

Will need more public charging infrastructure

• For people who do not have access to home or work charging

• Increase in shared mobility means more fleet charging

•Deal with different ways EVs charge vs petrol fill-ups

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