the future of scientists and engineers in the defense industry a presentation to the aiaa michael a....
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The Future of Scientists and Engineers in the Defense Industry
A Presentation to the AIAA
Michael A. LeonThe Aerospace Corporation
Economic and Market Analysis Center
12 January 2005
Definition
Science (Physical Sciences) Astronomy, chemistry, computer science,
earth/atmospheric/ocean studies, mathematics, and physics
Engineering Chemical, civil, electrical, industrial, and
mechanical
“The harsh fact is that the U.S. need for the highest quality human capital in science, mathematics, and engineering is not being met . . . This [situation] is not merely of national pride or international image. It is an issue of the utmost importance to national security. In a knowledge-based future, only an America that remains at the cutting edge of S&T will sustain its current world leadership … Complacency with our current achievement of national wealth and international power will put all of this at risk.”U.S. Commission on National Security for the 21st Century
“The harsh fact is that the U.S. need for the highest quality human capital in science, mathematics, and engineering is not being met . . . This [situation] is not merely of national pride or international image. It is an issue of the utmost importance to national security. In a knowledge-based future, only an America that remains at the cutting edge of S&T will sustain its current world leadership … Complacency with our current achievement of national wealth and international power will put all of this at risk.”U.S. Commission on National Security for the 21st Century
“A well-educated and technically-trained workforce is essential to a nation's competitiveness in two ways. First, it enables a country to shift more of its economic activity into higher technology and more productive activities that support higher wages. Second, an educated workforce is necessary to retain domestic investment and attract multinational investment.”Council on Competitiveness
“A well-educated and technically-trained workforce is essential to a nation's competitiveness in two ways. First, it enables a country to shift more of its economic activity into higher technology and more productive activities that support higher wages. Second, an educated workforce is necessary to retain domestic investment and attract multinational investment.”Council on Competitiveness
Consider…
Overview
Background Current landscape College and graduate school trends Quantitative analysis Recommendations Conclusions Questions/suggestions
Background
Reagan era buildup Collapse of the Soviet Union and the Eastern Bloc Reduction in defense spending Economic recession followed by an improving economy Burgeoning commercial technology market Confluence of events caught the attention of the defense
industry and of Wall Street Large scale mergers and acquisitions Divestitures Overall consolidation
The New Millennium Political Events
Change in administrations World Trade Center War on Terrorism Capabilities based defense strategy Resurgence in defense spending
Industry Events Mergers and acquisitions replaced by smaller strategic
purchases Contractors focusing on integrating acquisitions and
improving financial performance Fewer contractors competing for increasing defense
dollars Renewed demand for defense scientists and engineers
Scientific and Engineering Employment Defense/aerospace employment has dropped nearly 50% between
1990 and 2003 Demand for scientists and engineers is improving
Top 10 defense contractors have nearly 10,000 open requisitions for scientists and engineers
New military missions Aging weapon systems
Civil space and commercial industries competing for technical talent
Baby Boomers approaching retirement 27% of employed defense/aerospace scientists & engineers will be
eligible to retire by 2008 Next decade number of Americans with science and engineering
degrees reaching retirement age will triple Wall Street is concerned over the lack of scientists and engineers
Defense Expenditures & Science and Engineering
Historical relationship between defense spending and the number of engineering degrees awarded by U.S. universities 65,000 degrees in 1975 121,000 degrees in 1985 104,000 degrees in 2000
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Def
ense
Sp
end
ing
(N
om
inal
$M
)
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Co
nfe
rred
Deg
rees
Engineering Degrees Conferred by U.S. Colleges
National Defense Spending
Source: U.S. Office of M anagement and the Budget, "The Budget for Fiscal Y ear 2005, Historical Tables", 2003.
U.S.Department of Education National Center for Educational Statistics, "Higher Education General Information Survey", 2002.
R2 = 0.8793
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
National Defense Spending ($B)
Co
nfe
rred
En
gin
eeri
ng
Deg
rees
(U.S
. S
cho
ols
)
Source: U.S. Office of M anagement and the Budget, "The Budget for Fiscal Y ear 2005, Historical Tables", 2003.
U.S. Department of Education National Center for Educational Statistics, "Higher Education General Information Survey", 2002.
Undergraduate Education
Greater percentage of high school graduates attend college
Interest in engineering is unchanged in the past five years
Long-term trend shows a declining interest in engineering
Fewer than 50% of first year science and engineering students have completed a technical degree within five years
10% to 20% of first year students intending to major in science and engineering require remedial math and science course work
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
1977 1979 1981 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1998 2000
Degrees
U.S. Citizens and Permanent Residents
Foreign Students
Source: NSF, "Science and Engineering Indicators", 2004.
Engineering Bachelor Degrees
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999 2000 2001
Other
Education
Socia l Science
Engineering
Business and Commerce
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "Scholastic Assessment Test (SAT) Scores and Characteristics", 2002.
College Bound Seniors Areas of Interest
Graduate School EducationGraduate School Education
Since 1995 the number of U.S. citizens earning master’s degrees in engineering has declined an average of nearly 5% per year
Between 1994 and 2001 the number of U.S. citizens and permanent visa holders enrolling in graduate technical programs has decreased
Mathematics/statistics 25% Engineering 21% Physical Sciences 17%
Foreign students earn nearly half of all engineering doctorate degrees
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1977 1979 1981 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1998 2000
Degrees
U.S. Citizens and Permanent Residents
Foreign Students
Source: NSF, "Science and Engineering Indicators", 2004.
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1977 1979 1981 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1998 2000
Degrees
U.S. Citizens and Permanent Residents
Foreign Students
Source: NSF, "Science and Engineering Indicators", 2004.
Engineering Master’s Degrees
Engineering Doctorate Degrees
Quantitative Analysis
Developed Excel-based parametric model to forecast the supply and demand of scientists and engineers in the defense industry (2005 – 2020)
Supply Inputs Percent degrees earned by U.S. citizens Percent of engineering and science graduates working in defense Percent change in engineering enrollment Industry attrition
Demand Inputs Defense spending
Developed supply/demand equation Applied probability distributions to inputs and performed Monte Carlo
analysis
Quantitative Analysis
Model Inputs Low High Most
Likely
Percent of BS Degrees Earned by U.S. Citizens 0% 100% 92%
Percent of MS Degrees Earned by U.S. Citizens 0% 100% 57%
Percent of PhD Degrees Earned by U.S. Citizens 0% 100% 51%
No. Graduates Electing Defense Careers 0% 10% 5%
Change in Engineering Enrollment -10% 10% 0%
Industry Attrition 0% 10% 5%
Change in Annual Defense Budget -5% 5% 0%
])$(*679,13))()(()1([2020
2005
376.01
nnnnn BSpendingDefenseDefenseCitizensEarnedDegreesAttritionS
Results
Deficit each year through 2020 In 2012 the defense industry will need more than 34,000 engineers and scientists Problem may be further compounded
Stagnant interest in science and engineering among high school students Poor performance in mathematics, the sciences, and general problem solving skills High attrition rates in undergraduate science and engineering programs Increased need for remedial mathematics and science courses
Defense industry will continue to be challenged by the shortfall of scientistsand engineers
Defense industry will continue to be challenged by the shortfall of scientistsand engineers
(100,000)
(50,000)
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
2005 2010 2015 2020
Fo
reca
st S
urp
lus/
Def
icit
of
Sci
enti
sts
and
En
gin
eers
M edian
M ean
Defic
itSu
rplu
s
75th Percentile
Recommendations
Increase federally sponsored research and development
Incentivize investments in science and engineering Strengthen science and mathematics curriculum Encourage teachers to study science and
mathematics Public/private partnerships Attract underrepresented groups Retain experienced personnel
Conclusions
Model forecasts the demand for defense industry scientists and engineers exceeding the supply
Problem evolved over time - no simple short-term solutions
Federal, state, and local governments need to partner with industry and academia
International competitiveness and national security are at stake
Questions/Comments