the future of the uplands: a case study of agriculture and biodiversity in the peak district paul...
TRANSCRIPT
The Future of the Uplands: A Case Study of Agriculture and Biodiversity in the Peak District
Paul Armsworth, University of Sheffield
Szvetlana Acs, Martin Dallimer, Kevin Gaston, Nick Hanley, Phil Robertson, Dugald Tinch and Paul Wilson
AimsAims
• Importance of the uplands• Case study and evidence base• Effect of recent policy changes• Likely impact of future policy choices• Design of agri-environment schemes• Public preferences for upland landscapes
Upland Ecosystems
• Important for biodiversity • Important for ecosystem services• Recognised in designation status• Margins of agricultural productivity • Limited production choices• Rural deprivation• Subsidy dependence• Policies in flux
Evidence base
• Case study: Peak District National Park
• Historical documents• Socioeconomic survey of farm
businesses• Ecological surveys of bird community
and habitat quality• Modelling of alternative policy scenarios• Choice experiments and contingent
valuation surveys with visitors and locals
Decreasing stocking rates
• Sheep numbers decrease with decoupling...
• But after 70 years of increase
• Loss of suckler cows
Increasing specialisation
• Switch to Single Farm Payment predicts:
2 from 4 mixed farm types become specialised
• History of increasing
specialisation
Little abandonment
• With SFP and other schemes, most land remains in production
• More abandonment if core SFP support were to go
Farm labour
• Historical documents show no evidence of total labour reduction
• Technological improvement offset by increased production
• But significant labour reductions expected under decoupling
Farm incomes
With onset of Single Farm Payment, net farm incomeincreases on some properties and decreases on others
Farm incomes
But depends on core support, other schemes (AES & HFA) and off-farm income to be viable
Implications for biodiversity
The design of AES
Public Support
• Choice experiments and CV surveys with locals and visitors
Visitors willing to pay for more conservative management, especially of moorland
Locals not
Conclusions
• Ongoing policy changes will have major implications for farming in the hills...
• ...and upland biodiversity• Some changes reverse direction of long
term trends (stocking rates). • Others continue them (specialisation).• Preferences vary between visitors and
locals• Visitors significant WTP for moorland
conservation