T he following proceedings will outline the key disruptive forces that will impact veterinarians and Hill’s Pet Nutrition. The following research was

conducted by the Institute for the Future (IFTF) in 2015-16 looking ten years ahead. The forecast identified four core disruptive forces that will aff ect the pet food industry: Reimagining Nutrition, Ever-changing Authority, Hyper Connecting, and Vivid Experience. Of these four we will explore the first two as they will undoubtedly shape the way vets care for pets in the future.

Below is a summary slide with the disruptive force and a directional statement that connotes the way change is heading. The forces are meant to provoke foresight without being too intimidating about the future. One of the most eff ective ways to do this is using signals, or examples, of the future that we can find in the present.

The Future of the Vet’s Off ice by IFTF Sebastian Benitez

Content presented at the 2017 Hill’s Global Symposiumin Washington D.C., May 5 - 6, 2017.

Understanding signals is an important part of making sense of the future. Before we dive down into the disruptive forces. We will take a few moments to talk about what signals are, what they provoke, and how to best use that foresight to craft insights about the future. One of the most used quotes at IFTF is attributed to William Gibson: “The future is already here, it is just unevenly distributed”: The essential lesson being that to understand what will happen 5,10, or 50 years ahead we can already start to find examples in the present. These examples are likely to fail today, but they will fail in interesting ways that will influence the future.

A good example of a signal that failed in an interesting way, paving

the way for a fundamental shift in technology, was the Apple Newton. As we all know there are no Apple Newtons around today, in fact at the time it was considered a resounding and utter failure. Yet its shape and design can be found in one of the most important pieces of technology of our time.

One of the keys to the art of finding signals is to tell the difference between trend and disruption. In today’s vocabulary, the differences between the two are often muddled, while the word “disruption” itself has lost significant meaning. Yet, when speaking about the future understanding both terms is crucial.

Trends are patterns of change that we can extrapolate from with confidence. We can compare trends to weather forecasting: we can look at patterns and extrapolate a coherent story about what is likely to happen in the future.

Disruption: A significant break in the pattern of change. While trends are more akin to weather forecasting, disruption is like looking for earthquakes. We can use highly fine-tuned equipment, gather lots of data; yet the nature of the patter of change is still not understood. We can understand that the inevitable is coming, but making sense of how we get there is harder.

IFTF Method: Signal Hunting and Foresight, Insight, Action

By identifying signals and disruptions we can then go through what we call the Foresight, Insight, Action cycle—a method of reverse engineering the present from the future to get to actionable results today.

The rest of the document will be broken down by the disruptive forces. We will focus mainly on Reimagining Nutrition and Ever Changing Authority. We will explore some of the signals identified to help explore the narrative around each disruption.

Reimagining Nutrition

In 2026, the meanings of “healthy,” “fresh,” and “nutritious” will be up for debate. Serious advancements in our knowledge of the human microbiome will forge a path toward food that is alive and works with our bodies throughout the life cycle. Food will no longer be considered truly fresh unless the right probiotics and prebiotics are present to help regulate our bodies’ biomes. Even the definition of some of our most basic food staples – such as meat or eggs – will come under scrutiny. As we become experts at synthesizing animal-free meats and cheese, the morality of slaughtering animals or farming their milk will be questionable.

Reimagining nutrition means more than just changes to food. In 2026, eaters will wield an array of tools and sensors that will help them assess qualities like freshness and origin on-demand. In this scenario, the pre-meal ritual will shift from the obligatory Instagram post to a rapid analysis of composition and the affect food will have on the eater and its ecosystem. Furthermore, this analysis will take into consideration the vast metrics the eater has been tracking around sleep, stress, and activity levels. The definition of a healthy meal will span from the origins of the food to the effects it will have on the body long after it has left the system.

Signal: Feeding Bacteria to Babies As children fed probiotic baby formula grow up to be discerning consumers, parents, and pet parents, purchasing premium probiotic food will become the norm. Infant formula already leads the functional food and drink market and probiotics are quickly becoming the critical ingredient.

Formula like NESTLÉ® GOOD START® with Bifidobacterium lactis and Mead Johnson's Nutramigen® with Enflora™ LGG® (lactobacillus GG) command a 20% price premium over conventional products. Lux Research estimates that probiotic formula will have a 76% share of the $22.9 billion market in 2024. Couldn’t this work for pets as well?

Signal: Slaughter-free Animal ProductsModern Meadow is a biotech startup that promises to deliver “animal products with no animal slaughter.” It uses an additive process in which donor animal cells are cultured into sheets of tissue that are layered into meat. Its cofounder previously cofounded revolutionary 3D organ-printing company, Organovo, but he believes opportunities in the animal product market are much greater.

Signal: Monitoring Nutrition and StressCurrently available as a prototype, the Airo self-tracker claims to be able to track nutrition, stress levels, and other broader metrics of health and well-being. It can track sleep and activity levels via its wearer’s heart rate and nutrition using diff erent wavelengths of light to detect metabolites in the bloodstream. When these metrics move to pets, it will add layers to how we choose healthy food.3

Signal: Human Microbiome ProjectThe Human Microbiome Project, launched in 2008, was a 5-year, $115 million study by the NIH that characterized the human microbiome and looked for associations between disease and bacterial ecosystems. The project created a new foundation for reimagining nutrition that begins with the state of the microbiome, fed not only by food but also environmental factors such as human – and pet – contact.4

Signal: Seeing Your Future Self A Stanford University study found that people were more likely to make better financial decisions after viewing a digitally rendered version of their future self. How will we change our health decisions today when we interact with robust versions our future selves? Simulations like these will help us build similar narratives for and with our pets as we make efforts to change future outcomes today.5

Signal: Kitchens Come to Clinics The Goldring School of Culinary Medicine is teaching doctors at Tulane University to build kitchens into doctors’ offices. In response to the increasing importance nutrition plays in our lives, Tulane has adopted their curriculum to keep doctors as relevant health authorities. Will vet schools be next?6

Ever-changing Authority

As we reimagine the way we eat it will inevitably influence how we see our health. The authorities we turn to will look very different in 2026. New, augmented authority will arise in the form of algorithms and machine learning. Machines will be more accurate at diagnosing and treating – in a rapid, distributed fashion. Vets will be seen as optional partners in humanizing the experience.

Narratives will constantly shift and be rewritten. The amount of health-related data individuals and organizations own has skyrocketed. However, it won’t be the abundance of data that leads to an organization being

a trusted authority, but how they derive meaning and how they share insights with communities that matter. Technology will amplify global narratives, opening brands to either the rage or protection of the crowd. Narratives that resonate will be rewritten and massively shared. Authorities will constantly rewrite their own narratives to match them with evolving concerns.

Democratization of science will allow individuals to run complex experiments on themselves and their pets using troves of personal data. They will form powerful networks that scale in efficiency with the growth of users. As a result, the demand for quick and safe ways to view full medical records will be met by the adoption of new, decentralized technologies that will place complex conditions on when and why health records are accessed.

1. http://www.luxresearchinc.com/news-and-events/press-releases/read/probiotic-infant-formula-claim-76-share-229-billion-market-2024#sthash.lB6nQ9BA.dpuf http://www.nutraingredients.com/Markets-and-Trends/World-s-fastest-growing-functional-food-in-2013-Infant-formula-by-a-mile

2. http://www.modernmeadow.com/3. http://www.getairo.com/4. http://hmpdacc.org/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Microbiome_Project

5. https://hbr.org/2013/06/you-make-better-decisions-if-you-see-your-senior-self http://panicmunkeyfx.deviantart.com/art/Digital-Aging-106875499

6. http://tmedweb.tulane.edu/mu/teachingkitchen/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0vWLn0lU5k&feature=youtu.be (Tulane University video on Goldring)

7. https://3dprint.com/102762/kitty-3d-printed-leg-orthotic/

References

Signal: 3D Printed Prosthetics 3D Printing will also open doors for pet owners and vets to partner together for more comprehensive pet care. Scottish Art and Design student Fullarton Pegg worked with his cat’s veterinarian to create an orthopedic brace to prevent a leg amputation. Similarly, turtle shells have been printed and placed on turtles in Colorado. While vets will play an important role in taking care of people’s pets, many will seek DIY solutions at home.

Signal: DNA on the Blockchain DNA uploaded into cryptocurrency is a new and interesting application of blockchain technology. A pet’s DNA could be uploaded as a decentralized cryptocurrency and downloaded at and decrypted at a later date to be used for cloning purposes or the creation of virtual versions of pets.