The Future of Things

Jason GriffeyHead of Library Information TechnologyUniversity of Tennessee at Chattanooga

Homewood Public LibrarySeptember 21, 2012

how everywhere changes everything

Talking Points

Talking Points

• numbers

Talking Points

• numbers

• a post-pc world

Talking Points

• numbers

• a post-pc world

• the futurist’s dilemma

Talking Points

• numbers

• a post-pc world

• the futurist’s dilemma

• example hardware

Talking Points

• numbers

• a post-pc world

• the futurist’s dilemma

• example hardware

• conclusions

everything is amazing...

numbers

18.25%

39.32%

39.31%

2.89%0.24%

Chart 2

Macintosh OSesWindows OSesMobile DevicesGame ConsolesOther (Mostly Linux)

Type of Device onCampus Network

2011

18.25%

39.32%

39.31%

2.89%0.24%

Chart 2

Macintosh OSesWindows OSesMobile DevicesGame ConsolesOther (Mostly Linux)

Type of Device onCampus Network

2011

18.25%

39.32%

39.31%

2.89%0.24%

Chart 2

Macintosh OSesWindows OSesMobile DevicesGame ConsolesOther (Mostly Linux)

Type of Device onCampus Network

2011

18.25%

39.32%

39.31%

2.89%0.24%

Chart 2

Macintosh OSesWindows OSesMobile DevicesGame ConsolesOther (Mostly Linux)

Type of Device onCampus Network

2011

18.25%

39.32%

39.31%

2.89%0.24%

Chart 2

Macintosh OSesWindows OSesMobile DevicesGame ConsolesOther (Mostly Linux)

Type of Device onCampus Network

2011

18.25%

39.32%

39.31%

2.89%0.24%

Chart 2

Macintosh OSesWindows OSesMobile DevicesGame ConsolesOther (Mostly Linux)

Type of Device onCampus Network

2011

18.26%

36.58%

42.59%

2.17%0.39%

Chart 2

Macintosh OSesWindows OSesMobile DevicesGame ConsolesOther (Mostly Linux)

Type of Device onCampus Network

2012

0 1000 2000 3000ChromeOS

Zune

Nook

windowsCE

Generic

Palm

HPWebOS

Windows7

Kindle

KindleFire

Blackberry

No type

Android

Droid

iPod

iPad

iPhone

2011 2012

4126

0 1000 2000 3000ChromeOS

Zune

Nook

windowsCE

Generic

Palm

HPWebOS

Windows7

Kindle

KindleFire

Blackberry

No type

Android

Droid

iPod

iPad

iPhone

2011 2012

4126

0 1000 2000 3000ChromeOS

Zune

Nook

windowsCE

Generic

Palm

HPWebOS

Windows7

Kindle

KindleFire

Blackberry

No type

Android

Droid

iPod

iPad

iPhone

2011 2012

15069

4126

0 1000 2000 3000ChromeOS

Zune

Nook

windowsCE

Generic

Palm

HPWebOS

Windows7

Kindle

KindleFire

Blackberry

No type

Android

Droid

iPod

iPad

iPhone

2011 2012

15069

4126

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Zune

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windowsCE

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Palm

HPWebOS

Windows7

Kindle

KindleFire

Blackberry

No type

Android

Droid

iPod

iPad

iPhone

2011 2012

15069

7141

4126

0 1000 2000 3000ChromeOS

Zune

Nook

windowsCE

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Palm

HPWebOS

Windows7

Kindle

KindleFire

Blackberry

No type

Android

Droid

iPod

iPad

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2011 2012

15069

7141

4126

0 1000 2000 3000ChromeOS

Zune

Nook

windowsCE

Generic

Palm

HPWebOS

Windows7

Kindle

KindleFire

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No type

Android

Droid

iPod

iPad

iPhone

2011 2012

15069

7141

Android 2011: 1183 Android 2012: 1303

4126

0 1000 2000 3000ChromeOS

Zune

Nook

windowsCE

Generic

Palm

HPWebOS

Windows7

Kindle

KindleFire

Blackberry

No type

Android

Droid

iPod

iPad

iPhone

2011 2012

15069

7141

Android 2011: 1183 Android 2012: 1303

iPod 2011: 707 iPod 2012: 587

4126

0 1000 2000 3000ChromeOS

Zune

Nook

windowsCE

Generic

Palm

HPWebOS

Windows7

Kindle

KindleFire

Blackberry

No type

Android

Droid

iPod

iPad

iPhone

2011 2012

15069

7141

Android 2011: 1183 Android 2012: 1303

iPod 2011: 707 iPod 2012: 587

839 1339

4126

0 1000 2000 3000ChromeOS

Zune

Nook

windowsCE

Generic

Palm

HPWebOS

Windows7

Kindle

KindleFire

Blackberry

No type

Android

Droid

iPod

iPad

iPhone

2011 2012

15069

7141

Android 2011: 1183 Android 2012: 1303

iPod 2011: 707 iPod 2012: 587

839 1339

4126

0 1000 2000 3000ChromeOS

Zune

Nook

windowsCE

Generic

Palm

HPWebOS

Windows7

Kindle

KindleFire

Blackberry

No type

Android

Droid

iPod

iPad

iPhone

2011 2012

15069

7141

Android 2011: 1183 Android 2012: 1303

iPod 2011: 707 iPod 2012: 587

839 1339 21733166

4126

0 1000 2000 3000ChromeOS

Zune

Nook

windowsCE

Generic

Palm

HPWebOS

Windows7

Kindle

KindleFire

Blackberry

No type

Android

Droid

iPod

iPad

iPhone

2011 2012

15069

7141

Android 2011: 1183 Android 2012: 1303

iPod 2011: 707 iPod 2012: 587

839 1339 21733166

4126

What does a Post-PC world look like?

“When we were an agrarian nation, all cars

were trucks. But as people moved more

towards urban centers, people started

to get into cars.”

84 million iPads sold

interactions

touch

gesture

The Futurist’s Dilemma

Predictions are hard...

...especially when they are about the future.

Predictions are hard...

-- Yogi Bera

Arthur C. Clarke

What is the future of hardware?

CharlieStross

http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2012/08/how-low-power-can-you-go.html

How Low (Power) Can You Go?

Moore’s Law

Koomey’s Law

Stross’ Extrapolation

Mike Abrash

http://blogs.valvesoftware.com/abrash/valve-how-i-got-here-what-its-like-and-what-im-doing-2/

Valve: How I Got Here, What It’s Like, and What I’m Doing

By “wearable computing” I mean mobile computing where both computer-generated graphics and the real world are seamlessly overlaid in your view; there is no separate display that you hold in your hands (think Terminator vision). The underlying trend as we’ve gone from desktops through laptops and notebooks to tablets is one of having computing available in more places, more of the time.

no separatedisplay

By “wearable computing” I mean mobile computing where both computer-generated graphics and the real world are seamlessly overlaid in your view; there is no separate display that you hold in your hands (think Terminator vision). The underlying trend as we’ve gone from desktops through laptops and notebooks to tablets is one of having computing available in more places, more of the time.

no separatedisplay

The logical endpoint is computing everywhere, all the time – that is, wearable computing – and I have no doubt that 20 years from now that will be standard, probably through glasses or contacts, but for all I know through some kind of more direct neural connection.

The logical endpoint is computing everywhere, all the time – that is, wearable computing – and I have no doubt that 20 years from now that will be standard, probably through glasses or contacts, but for all I know through some kind of more direct neural connection.

computingeverywhere, all the time

And I’m pretty confident that platform shift will happen a lot sooner than 20 years – almost certainly within 10, but quite likely as little as 3-5, because the key areas – input, processing/power/size, and output – that need to evolve to enable wearable computing are shaping up nicely, although there’s a lot still to be figured out.

little as 3-5quite likely as

And I’m pretty confident that platform shift will happen a lot sooner than 20 years – almost certainly within 10, but quite likely as little as 3-5, because the key areas – input, processing/power/size, and output – that need to evolve to enable wearable computing are shaping up nicely, although there’s a lot still to be figured out.

little as 3-5quite likely as

Photo by Engadget: http://www.engadget.com/2012/01/11/lumus-see-through-wearable-display-hands-on/

Photo by The Pug Father - http://flic.kr/p/biH9j2

LibraryBox Projecthttp://librarybox.us

conclusions

strategies

look outside ourselves

prepare for the data flood

insert inspirational quotes here

Douglas Adams said...

Douglas Adams said...1. Anything that is in the world when you’re

born is normal and ordinary and is just a natural part of the way the world works.

Douglas Adams said...1. Anything that is in the world when you’re

born is normal and ordinary and is just a natural part of the way the world works.

2. Anything that’s invented between when you’re fifteen and thirty-five is new and exciting and revolutionary and you can probably get a career in it.

Douglas Adams said...1. Anything that is in the world when you’re

born is normal and ordinary and is just a natural part of the way the world works.

2. Anything that’s invented between when you’re fifteen and thirty-five is new and exciting and revolutionary and you can probably get a career in it.

3. Anything invented after you’re thirty-five is against the natural order of things.

If I'd asked them what they wanted, they'd have said a faster horse.

-- Henry Ford

It isn’t the consumer’s job to know what they want.

- Steve Jobs

The best way to predict the future

is to create it.-Peter Drucker

Warren Ellis

How to See the Futurehttp://www.warrenellis.com/?p=14314

Thank You

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