The Future of The Future of Water for Water for

Agriculture on the Agriculture on the Texas Gulf CoastTexas Gulf Coast

Presented by Ronald Presented by Ronald GertsonGertson

Rice Producer and Rice Producer and Rural Water Rural Water

AdvocateAdvocate

Who am I?Who am I?

Fifth generation rice farmerFifth generation rice farmer Frustrated “engineer”Frustrated “engineer” Reluctant rural water advocateReluctant rural water advocate Unapologetic ChristianUnapologetic Christian And today an admittedly angry and And today an admittedly angry and

somewhat discouraged water somewhat discouraged water plannerplanner

Topics I will cover today:Topics I will cover today: The current LCRA Water Crisis The current LCRA Water Crisis

What is at risk?What is at risk? What is driving the crisis?What is driving the crisis? What is being done about it?What is being done about it? What are the long-term consequences?What are the long-term consequences? What can be done to better the situation in the long-term?What can be done to better the situation in the long-term?

Other Surface Water NotablesOther Surface Water Notables LCRA/SAWS Water Project – dead or aliveLCRA/SAWS Water Project – dead or alive Corpus’ Garwood water rights and a new pipelineCorpus’ Garwood water rights and a new pipeline Upstream growthUpstream growth New power plants?New power plants? New reservoirs?New reservoirs?

The Groundwater SituationThe Groundwater Situation Groundwater Conservation DistrictsGroundwater Conservation Districts HB 1763 and Alphabet SoupHB 1763 and Alphabet Soup Desired Future Conditions and Managed Available Desired Future Conditions and Managed Available

GroundwaterGroundwater QuestionsQuestions

The Current LCRA CrisisThe Current LCRA Crisis

The LCRA BOD Water Committee is The LCRA BOD Water Committee is meeting this afternoon to consider a meeting this afternoon to consider a staff proposal that would drastically staff proposal that would drastically impact water availability to rice and impact water availability to rice and turf producers in the Gulf Coast turf producers in the Gulf Coast Irrigation District (Bay City) and the Irrigation District (Bay City) and the Lakeside Irrigation District (Eagle Lakeside Irrigation District (Eagle Lake). At risk is 25,000 to 50,000 Lake). At risk is 25,000 to 50,000 acres of rice production for 2010.acres of rice production for 2010.

LCRA Staff Proposal for a LCRA Staff Proposal for a “Temporary” Change to “Temporary” Change to

Water Management PoliciesWater Management Policies Change the date for setting the Change the date for setting the

curtailment level from Jan.1 to Feb. 15.curtailment level from Jan.1 to Feb. 15. Replace the current curtailment curve Replace the current curtailment curve

with a new curve that increases the with a new curve that increases the curtailments in all cases even if the lakes curtailments in all cases even if the lakes completely refill.completely refill.

Make unused downstream run-of-river Make unused downstream run-of-river rights available for diversion upstream rights available for diversion upstream to meet municipal and industrial to meet municipal and industrial demands.demands.

What is Driving the Policy What is Driving the Policy Change?Change?

Current curtailment policy was set by Current curtailment policy was set by modeling Drought of Record (DOR) modeling Drought of Record (DOR) conditions with today’s water uses.conditions with today’s water uses.

Actual inflows to the lakes for the past Actual inflows to the lakes for the past two years have been about 55% of the two years have been about 55% of the lowest two years of the DOR.lowest two years of the DOR.

Lake levels have fallen faster than ever.Lake levels have fallen faster than ever. Fact - Current policy would not Fact - Current policy would not

preserve firm water supplies if current preserve firm water supplies if current conditions persist.conditions persist.

End Result of Policy End Result of Policy ChangeChange

Garwood acreage is preserved by contract.Garwood acreage is preserved by contract. Pierce Ranch? About 4000 acresPierce Ranch? About 4000 acres Gulf Coast and Lakeside suffer severe Gulf Coast and Lakeside suffer severe

cutbacks as follows:cutbacks as follows: < 900,000 ac-ft – no acreage allowed< 900,000 ac-ft – no acreage allowed @ 900,000 ac-ft – 8000 acres allowed at one @ 900,000 ac-ft – 8000 acres allowed at one

district onlydistrict only @ 1,125 mil. ac-ft – 8000 acres allowed at each @ 1,125 mil. ac-ft – 8000 acres allowed at each

district for 16,000 acres totaldistrict for 16,000 acres total @ 2.0 mil. Ac-ft (full capacity) – 14,606 at Gulf @ 2.0 mil. Ac-ft (full capacity) – 14,606 at Gulf

Coast and 16,579 LakesideCoast and 16,579 Lakeside Curtailment levels at lakes-full is still roughly 34% Curtailment levels at lakes-full is still roughly 34%

off a 5-yr averageoff a 5-yr average Lakes are currently at about 813,000! Go Lakes are currently at about 813,000! Go

figure.figure.

What is Being Done?What is Being Done? LCRA BOD Water Committee meeting for LCRA BOD Water Committee meeting for

discussion of change today starting at 1:45.discussion of change today starting at 1:45. Some time will be spent in closed session.Some time will be spent in closed session. Will open for public comments at 4:30.Will open for public comments at 4:30. Urging interested parties to be present in moral Urging interested parties to be present in moral

support of chosen speakers and as silent support of chosen speakers and as silent protesters.protesters.

Speakers will be focusing on economic impact, Speakers will be focusing on economic impact, alternative approaches and on the need for alternative approaches and on the need for thorough vetting of assumptions being made.thorough vetting of assumptions being made.

Looking to Extension Service for expert support.Looking to Extension Service for expert support. Also considering hiring private consulting firm Also considering hiring private consulting firm

specializing in surface water issues.specializing in surface water issues.

What are the Likely What are the Likely Outcomes?Outcomes?

Chance that action on the policy can be delayed Chance that action on the policy can be delayed until November BOD meeting based on lack of until November BOD meeting based on lack of time for proper review.time for proper review.

Chance that some compromise policy can be Chance that some compromise policy can be achieved, but only if persuasive scientific approach achieved, but only if persuasive scientific approach can be used.can be used.

Once adopted by BOD it will go to TCEQ as a Once adopted by BOD it will go to TCEQ as a temporary emergency amendment to LCRA’s temporary emergency amendment to LCRA’s Water Management Plan.Water Management Plan.

If producers are unsuccessful with BOD, TCEQ will If producers are unsuccessful with BOD, TCEQ will be a second chance for relief.be a second chance for relief.

Time frame for action is likely 30 days or less with Time frame for action is likely 30 days or less with LCRA BOD and 30 additional days with TCEQ.LCRA BOD and 30 additional days with TCEQ.

What are the Long-Term What are the Long-Term Consequences?Consequences?

Staff is posing the current policy change as temporary.Staff is posing the current policy change as temporary. If successfully adopted, the same methodology used in If successfully adopted, the same methodology used in

this staff recommendation cannot help but be rolled this staff recommendation cannot help but be rolled forward into an eventual permanent change to the forward into an eventual permanent change to the WMP.WMP.

This could mean that we will This could mean that we will nevernever be able to return be able to return even to the 2009 rice acreages and certainly not to even to the 2009 rice acreages and certainly not to more historic high levels of rice acreage.more historic high levels of rice acreage.

This is why the very short time we have to contest the This is why the very short time we have to contest the staff proposal is extremely critical and staff proposal is extremely critical and demands all of demands all of the attention and resources we can bring to barethe attention and resources we can bring to bare..

And it is why I will be leaving as soon as this And it is why I will be leaving as soon as this presentation is over.presentation is over.

What can be done to better What can be done to better the situation in the long-the situation in the long-

term?term?Combination of:Combination of:

ConservationConservation Conjunctive use of ground and surface waterConjunctive use of ground and surface water Development of the off-channel reservoir(s)Development of the off-channel reservoir(s) Balancing reservoirs in the irrigation districtsBalancing reservoirs in the irrigation districts

Who pays for all of this?Who pays for all of this? Would have been SAWS under LSWPWould have been SAWS under LSWP Conservation can be cost shared with NRCS through Conservation can be cost shared with NRCS through

EQIPEQIP Other possibilities are currently unfunded and too Other possibilities are currently unfunded and too

expensive for producers to undertakeexpensive for producers to undertake Potential for new users to help, but no precedent for thisPotential for new users to help, but no precedent for this

Other Surface Water Other Surface Water NotablesNotables

Status of the LCRA/SAWS Water ProjectStatus of the LCRA/SAWS Water Project Water from the Colorado for Corpus Water from the Colorado for Corpus

ChristiChristi Upstream growthUpstream growth New power plants?New power plants? New reservoirs?New reservoirs?

LCRA / SAWS StatusLCRA / SAWS Status Would expand water supplies from the Would expand water supplies from the

Colorado River through a combination of Colorado River through a combination of conservation, off-channel reservoir and conservation, off-channel reservoir and groundwater for agriculture.groundwater for agriculture.

Studies demonstrate that there would not be Studies demonstrate that there would not be enough water to send to S. A. after meeting enough water to send to S. A. after meeting in-basin demands.in-basin demands.

SAWS is suing LCRA for breach of contract.SAWS is suing LCRA for breach of contract. LCRA claims there is no basis for such LCRA claims there is no basis for such

a suit. a suit. The plan appears to be dead.The plan appears to be dead. SAWS still has needs, though, SAWS still has needs, though,

so stay tuned. so stay tuned.

Corpus Christi Water from Corpus Christi Water from the Coloradothe Colorado

Corpus purchased 35,000 ac-ft of the Garwood Corpus purchased 35,000 ac-ft of the Garwood water right in 1997 for $16 mil.water right in 1997 for $16 mil.

Has not drawn on this right yet.Has not drawn on this right yet. Engineering studies for pipeline currently Engineering studies for pipeline currently

underway.underway. Will likely pump from the Colorado in Matagorda Will likely pump from the Colorado in Matagorda

County and connect to the Mary Rhodes Pipeline County and connect to the Mary Rhodes Pipeline at Lake Texana (about 40 miles)at Lake Texana (about 40 miles)

No water goes into TexanaNo water goes into Texana Estimated cost $100 milEstimated cost $100 mil Pipeline construction time: Pipeline construction time:

< 18 months< 18 months Could be using Colorado water by 2020Could be using Colorado water by 2020

Upstream GrowthUpstream Growth

Growth in the Austin area is Growth in the Austin area is outpacing earlier projections.outpacing earlier projections.

The IH130 corridor is stimulating The IH130 corridor is stimulating growth that was not previously growth that was not previously planned for. planned for.

Unclear who will service all of this new Unclear who will service all of this new growth.growth.

It is clear that much of the water will It is clear that much of the water will come from the Colorado if it is available. come from the Colorado if it is available.

New Power New Power PlantsPlants

Power plants are major water consumersPower plants are major water consumers Las Brisas Power plant proposed for the Las Brisas Power plant proposed for the

Corpus area likely driving the current Corpus area likely driving the current move to access the Garwood right.move to access the Garwood right.

South Texas Nuclear expansionSouth Texas Nuclear expansion White Stallion coal plant proposedWhite Stallion coal plant proposed Austin Energy to expand with coal plantAustin Energy to expand with coal plant Exelon proposes nuclear south of VictoriaExelon proposes nuclear south of Victoria Water availability will be a determining Water availability will be a determining

factor for each of these plantsfactor for each of these plants

New Reservoirs?New Reservoirs?

Few traditional sites left for developmentFew traditional sites left for development 25 year permitting process25 year permitting process Must have water available to fillMust have water available to fill Where there is water, topography is wrongWhere there is water, topography is wrong Off-channel reservoirs in the coastal region Off-channel reservoirs in the coastal region

will be the futurewill be the future Capture flood flows with high capacity pumpsCapture flood flows with high capacity pumps Transporting water to areas of need a big cost Transporting water to areas of need a big cost

factorfactor

Is Groundwater Our Ace in Is Groundwater Our Ace in the Hole?the Hole?

Let’s take a look and then you Let’s take a look and then you decidedecide

Groundwater and Alphabet Groundwater and Alphabet SoupSoup

GCD – Groundwater Conservation DistrictGCD – Groundwater Conservation District TWDB – Texas Water Development BoardTWDB – Texas Water Development Board GMA – Groundwater Management AreaGMA – Groundwater Management Area MAG – Managed Available GroundwaterMAG – Managed Available Groundwater GAM – Groundwater Availability ModelGAM – Groundwater Availability Model DFC – Desired Future ConditionDFC – Desired Future Condition

GCDsGCDs

Groundwater Conservation Districts Groundwater Conservation Districts are the Legislature’s preferred are the Legislature’s preferred method of managing groundwater.method of managing groundwater.

The regional water planning process The regional water planning process has resulted in the proliferation of has resulted in the proliferation of GCDs over most of the state.GCDs over most of the state.

Each GCD can choose its own Each GCD can choose its own management scheme within certain management scheme within certain parameters.parameters.

HB 1763 HB 1763 Passed in 2007Passed in 2007 Forces GCDs within a Groundwater Forces GCDs within a Groundwater

Management Area (GMA) to do joint planningManagement Area (GMA) to do joint planning Each GMA must provide their Desired Future Each GMA must provide their Desired Future

Conditions (DFC) for each aquifer and Conditions (DFC) for each aquifer and aquifer layer under their area by September, aquifer layer under their area by September, 2010.2010.

TWDB uses the DFCs and the GAMs to TWDB uses the DFCs and the GAMs to determine the Managed Available determine the Managed Available Groundwater (MAG).Groundwater (MAG).

Each GCD must then incorporate the MAG Each GCD must then incorporate the MAG into their Management Plan in an effort to into their Management Plan in an effort to manage for their DFC.manage for their DFC.

DFC/MAG ExampleDFC/MAG Example

GCD X adopts a DFC that will allow an average GCD X adopts a DFC that will allow an average decline of 10 feet in the water table of Aquifer Y decline of 10 feet in the water table of Aquifer Y over the next 50 yrs.over the next 50 yrs.

GCD X’s DFC must be determined to be compatible GCD X’s DFC must be determined to be compatible with neighboring GCDs by the GMA in which it lies.with neighboring GCDs by the GMA in which it lies.

TWDB does iterative runs of the GAM and TWDB does iterative runs of the GAM and determines that Z acre-feet of pumpage can occur determines that Z acre-feet of pumpage can occur annually without exceeding the DFC of 10 ft of annually without exceeding the DFC of 10 ft of drawdown. drawdown.

Z acre feet is passed down as the MAG for GCD X. Z acre feet is passed down as the MAG for GCD X. GCD X manages the aquifer in such a way as to GCD X manages the aquifer in such a way as to

prevent pumpage from exceeding MAG Z and the prevent pumpage from exceeding MAG Z and the DFC of 10 ft.DFC of 10 ft.

How can GCD X accomplish How can GCD X accomplish the required objectives?the required objectives?

GCD X must adopt a management scheme GCD X must adopt a management scheme that does not allow the actual pumpage in that does not allow the actual pumpage in the district to consistently exceed Z ac-ft.the district to consistently exceed Z ac-ft.

When total permitted volumes result in When total permitted volumes result in pumpage that bumps up to MAG Z, the pumpage that bumps up to MAG Z, the district must either turn down all future district must either turn down all future permit requests or start ratcheting back permit requests or start ratcheting back existing permits to make room for new ones.existing permits to make room for new ones.

Many unknowns about the legalities Many unknowns about the legalities involved here.involved here.

Big Question: Who Owns Big Question: Who Owns Groundwater in Place?Groundwater in Place?

Several major landowner groups insist that the Several major landowner groups insist that the landowner owns it even before he pumps it. landowner owns it even before he pumps it.

The Rule of Capture says that ownership occurs only The Rule of Capture says that ownership occurs only once it is captured (pumped).once it is captured (pumped).

The courts have skirted directly answering this The courts have skirted directly answering this question.question.

Several current cases could force the Texas Several current cases could force the Texas Supreme Court to finally answer this question.Supreme Court to finally answer this question.

The answer matters a great deal.The answer matters a great deal. GCDs operate under the assumption that ownership GCDs operate under the assumption that ownership

does not occur until it is captured, therefore a GCD does not occur until it is captured, therefore a GCD can restrict or even deny access to groundwater so can restrict or even deny access to groundwater so long as there is a scientifically plausible reason for long as there is a scientifically plausible reason for doing so without the risk of a private property doing so without the risk of a private property takings suit against it.takings suit against it.

GMA 15 GMA 15 ProgressProgress

Draft DFCs have been generated.Draft DFCs have been generated. TWDB is accomplishing a draft MAG run.TWDB is accomplishing a draft MAG run.

Will adopt final DFCs by September, 2010.Will adopt final DFCs by September, 2010. No conflicts among GCDs so far.No conflicts among GCDs so far. Meetings are open – get with your local Meetings are open – get with your local

GCD to be informed of meetings.GCD to be informed of meetings.

Don’t Lose HopeDon’t Lose Hope

Be prepared for the worst, but hope Be prepared for the worst, but hope for the best.for the best.

We will survive this and live to farm We will survive this and live to farm another dayanother day

People have to eat.People have to eat.

Pray for rain in the upper basins and Pray for rain in the upper basins and for wisdom and reasonable actions in for wisdom and reasonable actions in the meantime.the meantime.

QuestionsQuestions

QuestionsQuestions

Simplified Draft Desired Future Conditions by County & Aquifer Simplified Draft Desired Future Conditions by County & Aquifer LayerLayer

for GMA 15for GMA 15

GCDGCD CountyCountyAverage Drawdowns Allowed by DFCs at Average Drawdowns Allowed by DFCs at

year 2060 (ft)year 2060 (ft)

     ChicoChico

ttEvangelinEvangelin

eeJaspeJaspe

rrYegua-Yegua-JacksonJackson

Coastal Bend GCDCoastal Bend GCD WhartonWharton 1010 1010 2020   

Coastal Plains Coastal Plains GCDGCD MatagordaMatagorda 1010 1010 2020   

Texana GCD *Texana GCD * JacksonJackson 1010 1010 2020   

Fayette Cy GCDFayette Cy GCDsouthern southern FayetteFayette -- 3030 5050 5050

Bee Cy GCDBee Cy GCDeastern half eastern half BeeBee 1010 1010 1010   

Evergreen UWCDEvergreen UWCDsouthern southern KarnesKarnes -- 1515 1515   

Pecan Valley GCDPecan Valley GCD DewittDewitt 1010 1010 1010   

Refugio Cy GCDRefugio Cy GCD RefugioRefugio 00 1010 --   

Colorado Cy GCDColorado Cy GCD ColoradoColorado 00 00 2020   

Lavaca Cy GCDLavaca Cy GCD LavacaLavaca 55 66 1515   

nonenone CalhounCalhoun 00 1010 --   

nonenone AransasAransas 00 2525 --   

Goliad Cy GCDGoliad Cy GCD GoliadGoliad 00 00 1010   

Victoria Cy GCDVictoria Cy GCD VictoriaVictoria 1010 1010 1010   

* inactive GCD* inactive GCD

Total Pumpage Used for Total Pumpage Used for Each County in GAM Run Each County in GAM Run

08-5608-56 Most Most

PumpagePumpage to Least to Least

08-56Actual pumpage used for GAM run 08-56Actual pumpage used for GAM run

TotalTotal Chicot Aquifer Chicot Aquifer Evangeline Evangeline

AquiferAquifer

Burkeville Burkeville Confining Confining

UnitUnit Jasper Aquifer Jasper Aquifer

WhartonWharton 175,000175,000 108,650108,650 66,35066,350 00 00

Jackson Jackson 75,00075,000 54,68054,680 20,32020,320 00 00

Colorado Colorado 48,00048,000 24,45024,450 22,65022,650 00 900900

MatagordaMatagorda 44,98544,985 35,59535,595 9,3909,390 00 00

Victoria Victoria 35,00035,000 8,0008,000 27,00027,000 00 00

RefugioRefugio 28,75828,758 6,2576,257 22,50122,501 00 00

BeeBee 22,17522,175 9,5009,500 12,00012,000 7575 600600

LavacaLavaca 20,18520,185 3,0363,036 12,40012,400 149149 4,6004,600

GoliadGoliad 17,73917,739 645645 17,09417,094 00 00

FayetteFayette 8,6588,658 00 885885 154154 7,6197,619

CalhounCalhoun 2,9552,955 2,8812,881 7474 00 00

KarnesKarnes 2,8952,895 00 103103 281281 2,5112,511

AransasAransas 1,8261,826 1,8261,826 00 00 00

DeWittDeWitt 14,94514,945 1,0001,000 7,6627,662 00 6,2836,283