THE FUTURE OF THE G-20

IN GOOD TIMES AND BAD

WHAT DO WE HAVE TO LOOK FORWARD TO?

INTRODUCTION

As we plan into the future, are we considering the path of the trajectory?

Case in point. The pendulum swings both ways. The farther it swings one way, the farther it swings back.

Globalisation: Will the path of globalisation eventually lead to a path of isolationism?

Information: Will the information that we are relying upon so heavily, eventually become a curse that will lead people to retrench? An information overload can make the information virtually worthless if too much stuff cannot be accepted as reliable.

Technology: Will the technology that enhances our efforts become so "intrusive" that we are paralysed by its intrusiveness?

Politics: Will the politics of globalisation lead to "Superpower Centers" with a detente between i.e.: The Asian Center, The African Center, The Middle Eastern Center, The European Center, The Latin American Center, the North American Center?

THE CONSEQUENCES OF FAILURE

Before looking at the future of the G-20 in good times, it would be beneficial to look at the consequences of the alternatives to cooperation.

The best way to do this would be to look at a Crisis Management COOP

(Continuity of Operations Programme)

The following is a suggested outline for how to deal with a crisis.

IMMEDIATE STEPS TO BE TAKEN

1. Establish a Crisis Management team with an established MIS for a continuity of operations plan.

2. Determine potential threats from those outside the G20. Coordinate a defense plan among the G20 nations.

3. Quantify the needs of the people of each of the countries, the resources available from each of the G20 countries, and establish a coordinated distribution system for the resources available.

4. Create a forecasting team to create a snapshot of the situation and to plan a recovery strategy.

Follow Up

A: What are the potential threats?

1. Military invasion

2. Population dislocation

3. Starvation, disease, violence

4. Political unrest

5. Propaganda

(3 and 4 are also internal threats.)

B: identify the source or sources of the threats.

1. Hostile nations

2. Displaced persons

3. Agents provocateur

4. Propaganda

C: What will be your single point defense plan in addition to (3) and (4) which are precisely what the G20 needs to do immediately?

Disseminate information trusted to be authentic.

Disseminate information directly through all available media to the greatest number of people apprising them of the situation and reassuring them of official protection and support.

Disseminate information through pre-determined media to principals responsible for the mobilisation of forces to repulse external attack, and to internal organisations responsible for the protection of civilians.

AS YOU CAN SEE

WHAT WE ARE DOING

IS PREPARING FOR A CRISIS

OF INTERNATIONAL PROPORTION

Why bring it up? To demonstrate that the alternative is more pleasant than the medication.

“Some people, when confronted with new ideas, will

coagulate like white corpuscles designed to defend the

body from the medication intended to heal the illness.”

--Slim Fairview

However, in the event that all goes well…

Perhaps we should, instead, focus on the positive aspects

of what can be accomplished with global cooperation

I will now leave my comfort-zone of being analytical to become philosophical.

Link the currency exchange rate to the trade

deficit/surplus numbers in a way that would balance

out the trade and currency issues. This would:

1. Help to stabilise the playing field and discourage trade and currency wars.

2. Encourage co-operation instead of competition among the nations while at the same time encouraging competition within industries to become more efficient thus cost-effective.

Establish both shared agro technology and the

creation of a global food bank to stabilise and

increase the food supply among the G20 and to

stabilise emerging nations with the ability to offset

political and civil unrest arising from lack of food.

Provide for the co-operation among those in the

pharmaceutical industry to research and develop

medication that will be necessary to inveigh against

existing and emerging diseases. (Op. cit. B)

Whereas a heavy burden of the cost of medication arises from R&D, a globally funded R&D programme would enable pharmaceutical companies to work with a “fixed cost + variable cost + profit” equation enabling them to remain profitable and fulfill shareholder and stakeholder interests by eliminating the cost factor of R&D. These costs rise into the billions of dollars. Pharmaceutical companies would conduct their own R&D but the cost would not be factored into the pricing of the medication.

Establish an intra-G20 agency to inventory energy

resources and supplies, calculate current global

energy needs, an forecast future energy supplies

and demand among the G20 nations and among

the non-G20 nations.

What are the challenges for the New Managers in the

New Millennium?

For now, Transition.

From analogue to digital. From mechanical to technical. From older bosses with younger employees to younger bosses with both older employees and younger employees.

A faster pace. From the letter, to the fax, to the email, to the iPhone to the iPad. A faster pace in the barrage of questions and a demand for a faster reply with answers.

Precision. Then: a little more, a little less, a couple of shims and a few extra screws. Now: a digital answer with the engineer's zero. 6.54 is not acceptable. Now the answer must read 6.540

A compelling necessity for senior level expertise. Sometimes you cannot delegate responsibility. With the abundance of expertise, recognising the quality among the quantity is crucial. Now find the person on your team capable of doing it.

Global interface. With so much coming from so many different people in so many different places, try to find someone capable of working with them.

Technological compatibility.

LIMIT THE NUMBER OF EXPERTS

For every ten experts who say "Do this!", you have ten experts who say, "Do that!"

Then someone else will produce ten experts who say, "Do something else."

Another ten experts will say, "They're all right".

Another ten experts will say, "They're all wrong".

Another ten experts will ask, "Who's to say what's right or wrong?"

Then the facilitator of the group will say, " There's no "I" in team! :-) "

If you don't believe me, ask an expert.

LIMIT THE NUMBER OF EXPERTS

Establish a Global Consortia

Food

Pharmaceuticals

Energy

Economic Development

S M E

Focus on Small and Medium Enterprise

Micro-Finance

Aid in Kind

AGRICULTURE

Enhance the technologies of:

Irrigation

Water Purification

Fertilisation

Sanitation

And the Study of Surficial Geology

ESTABLISH A

Vertical

Task Oriented

Goal Oriented

Result Oriented

Management and Operations Structure

This will enable the Consortia to Manage the Process to Insure That Those Working on the Project are Task Oriented, Goal Oriented, and Result Oriented.

GOOD LUCK

Copyright © Slim Fairview 2010

Slimfairview@yahoo.com

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